Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[davesaz]

Sorry read the post wrong.
VOTE: Looker

Figured as much but it would help to explain what you thought you saw.
In fact it would help to explain, generally speaking.

[davesaz]

Final vote (timestamp according to UTC -7)
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:54:27 am

Looker Sat Sep 26, 2020 2:01:01 pm
NPOM Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:23:58 pm
me Sun Sep 27, 2020 12:24:58 pm (note: my previous day was VLA)
pisskop Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:56:44 am

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm

Why would scum bus before a claim, especially when there was a seemingly valid counter to work with?
Possibly more importantly, what do you think about people who switched from NPOM vs. people who hadn't voted NPOM?

My thoughts: any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim. Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

This IIoA is so LAMIST it's fucking painful.

You scum, bro?

The last sentence is analysis. Failed attempt at buzzword slinging noticed.

[davesaz]

EBWOP - last post that was quoted, 1734 is pure analysis.

[davesaz]

Ok. I'm not going to claim now I'm pretty sure I'm spewing green.

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe
Stays on until you post more than single lines. Put up or go home.

[Starbuck]

you made the leap that they were purposely ignoring them,

I did. To gauge their reaction (which wasn't very favorable). They got defensive quick for literally no reason and then tried to turn my questioning around to if I was "nervous." That was quite the quick jump from just answering that they plan to look at the other two later, which they still haven't actually committed to.

On top of that, the reactions from you saying that I'm "attacking" BEF (which is not what is happening) and TD saying that my line of questioning is weird/making them doubt their townread on me, without asking me the why behind it is a concern to me, as well. I feel the shade both of you are throwing, and more of Whiteknighty type feel from you.

Why can't I call someone out for a discrepancy that I see without it being deemed as an attack? Why is okay for TD to talk about me and not to me?

[chkflip]

The last sentence is analysis. Failed attempt at buzzword slinging noticed.

No, it really fucking isn't.

"Due to the timing of the claim, bussing likely happened prior to it or scum surely stayed off the wagon" is mafia theory at best.

Who did that? Why're they scum for it?

That's analysis.

"nIcE dEfLeCtIoN aTtEmPt NoTeD"

That's how you sound.

[Starbuck]

I'm not particularly liking the Beetlejuice moments that have been happening with Lavender. There's nothing, nothing, and more nothing and then their name pops up and they post something like what happened on Page 74. And of course, it's still NOTHING that adds to the game. For those of you who said that Lavender is this type of poster (more on the lower end of the post quantity spectrum), was there this much Beetlejuicing in the last Baker game? To me, it feels like they are paying attention to the game, but not contributing which, for me, is scum indicative.

Because this:

Guess I’ll wait for things again I guess

Is absolutely ridiculous.

Anyone who switched off at the claim should probably be looked at

+1

Just Gamma and Walter? Fuckin come at me, bro.

Meh, I've defended folks for the exact same reasons. I don't think you'd have gone to the extent you did for a buddy.

I feel like we can sink scum starbuck later.

But I'll float because I'm not scum. Good try anyways, though.

I will say that I'm always angry.

[Galron]

@mod vla through Saturday

[Starbuck]

Starbuck is wavering and losing that TR but for now SB leans town.

Either I have it or I lost it, but don't lose it because I asked you a question/challenged you. I'm still trying to figure out your slot because your lack of participation yesterday didn't help me very much.


DGB needs to stop mindmelding with me.

How does everyone know your position on claim stalls?

Because we've been around long enough.

I'm pretty sure I'm spewing green.

You're still spewing pretty red to me.

You strategy was to obfuscate your role and make it difficult for us to know who to smash on time.

Agreed. NPOM, you caused so much all over the place confusion at the end of the day for seemingly no reason other than to purposefully spam and cause distractions. I'm firmly with DGB on this.

I do ride that Activity Overview train, but there's no goddamn reason for you to have 209 posts already.

[chkflip]

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. My name is chkflip, and (as my old NCOs would say) welcome to today's Barney-style breakdown.

On today's episode we have some CHOICE fucking analysis from davesaz on the complexities of claiming, bussing, and potential mafiosos that were on or off the IKS wagon. Let's take a look.

any new bussing (if any) is after claim, and probably not the first 1-2 after claim.

In an absolutely stunning effort, our glorious davesaz comes in (without explicitly stating) that 1-2 of NPOM, Walter, Gamma, and Starbuck are NOT SCUM.

With analysis like that it's no wonder you do

so swimmingly

in the uspol thread.

Pre-claim bussing (if any) should be much earlier in the wagon before it got real, and people who had laid a foundation to not vote NPOM.

Pre-claim bussing (as in before the claim, when he was Shred-2, and therefore before the potentially cleared 1-2 out of 4 fucking people) should be much earlier in the wagon. This statement implies that the mid-wagon votes are also more likely town than not and that we're more likely to find scum in BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, and pisskop. "But wait!" you fucking scream at me. "Titus is dead!" CORRECT. So we're to look at BEF, TD, Looker, and pisskop, right?

INCORRECT.

He eliminates the middle of the wagon as well, so we chop off pisskop, again NPOM (Gosh he must be conf!town to dave, eh? y/n) and... what's this!? DID DAVE ATTEMPT TO SEED IN A CLEAR ON HIMSELF!?

Top gun analysis here, boys.

Real Donald Trump level speechcraft.

Let's not forget we're also to look at people who (for whatever fucking reason) also didn't vote for NPOM, which includes IKS -- who flipped town -- Pooky, rudeboy, and A50.

That's the analysis that can be pulled when you work really fucking hard to get there.

BEF, TD, Bam Jay, Looker, Pooky, rude, and A50.

Or

ORRRRRRRR

That wasn't actually analysis, it was stating that people who vote on wagons after a particularly unbelievable claim are less likely to be scum because scum has already seen the role. They know it exists. They want it to continue existing. (Mafia theory)

And that mafia don't want to be seen on the day's "counter-wagon" because that'll leave them more obviously in the spot light. (Mafia theory)

Thank you for your time.

[BrightEyedFish]

Starbuck is wavering and losing that TR but for now SB leans town.

Either I have it or I lost it, but don't lose it because I asked you a question/challenged you. I'm still trying to figure out your slot because your lack of participation yesterday didn't help me very much.

It's not that black or white. I TR you yesterday and your "challenge" to me made the waters blurry. I am trying to stay objective thats why I didn't completely throw you in my scum pile.

[Starbuck]

It is that black and white.

But you do you, boo.

[BrightEyedFish]

It is that black and white.

But you do you, boo.

Are you scum claiming?

[Starbuck]

Nope. I'm town all game.

I have been told that I give false positives, though.

[Starbuck]

It's just interesting how, based on our only direct interaction (I think), that you're suddenly changing your tune.

[davesaz]

Starting from mod posted VC's only, as I certainly don't have time to generate a complete flow. Timestamps are again UTC-7 my local time, you will see different times for the same posts according to your timezone.

Note: the commentary on changes between VC's is between them, so commentary precedes the VC it's about.

Starting point for this analysis:

Spoiler: vc

Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:04:06 pm
I Keep Siteflaking (7): NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, WaltertheDunce10
Galron (4): Starbuck, davesaz, a2rudeboy, Bambi Jay
Doctor Drew (4): I Keep Siteflaking, chkflip, PookyTheMagicalBear, pisskop
WalterTheDunce10 (2): Galron, Looker
chkflip (1): DrippingGoofball
TiphaineDeath (1): Titus
NoPowerOverMe (1): Iecerint

Not Voting (1): Lavender

A big wagon on NPOM comes up over the next two days. IKS remains in the lead. WalterTheDunce10 leaves and Bambi Jay enters. It makes sense to look at reasons for all the people going onto NPOM. I know that Iecerint made a case, and that a lot of people said that case was their reason, but I have not paid much attention to exactly who. IKS importantly is not on NPOM.

Spoiler: VC

Fri Sep 25, 2020 2:18:32 pm
I Keep Siteflaking (7): NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, Bambi Jay
NoPowerOverMe (6): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, PookyTheMagicalBear, Galron
Doctor Drew (2): I Keep Siteflaking, chkflip
Lavender (2): a2rudeboy, Titus
Galron (1): davesaz
WalterTheDunce10 (1): Looker
chkflip (1): DrippingGoofball

Not Voting (1): pisskop

This gap is 1 day 7 hours or so, and personal note I was basically unavailable during this time on a fishing trip. I skimmed this gap and part of the next one up to my vote on Sunday.

NPOM wagon changes: PookyTheMagicalBear leaves, DGB joins, chkflip joins, pisskop joins
IKS wagon changes: NPOM leaves, Gamma leaves, Titus joins, looker joins.
Wagon leavers: PookyTheMagicalBear goes to pisskop, NPOM goes to pisskop. Interesting how both of the people being wagoned go to pisskop here.

Spoiler: VC

Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:38:24 pm
NoPowerOverMe (8): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, pisskop
I Keep Siteflaking (7): Doctor Drew, BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Almost50, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker
pisskop (4): NoPowerOverMe, I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): davesaz, a2rudeboy

Time gap here is a little under a day. I was still gone over half of it.

IKS wagon changese: Drew leaves, A50 leaves, pisskop joins, I join after returning from fishing (

note: NPOM is in the lead at that point

), NPOM joins
NPOM wagon changes: Drew joins

Spoiler: VC

Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:57:58 pm
NoPowerOverMe (8): Iecerint, Lavender, Starbuck, WaltertheDunce10, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, Doctor Drew
I Keep Siteflaking (8): BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, pisskop, davesaz, NoPowerOverMe
pisskop (3): I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear, Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (2): a2rudeboy, Almost50

Changes: Gamma (from pisskop), Walter (from NPOM), and Starbuck (from NPOM) go on IKS.

Spoiler: VC

Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:49:03 am
SHREDDED I Keep Siteflaking (11): BrightEyedFish, TiphaineDeath, Bambi Jay, Titus, Looker, pisskop, davesaz, NoPowerOverMe, Gamma Emerald, WaltertheDunce10, Starbuck
NoPowerOverMe (6): Iecerint, Lavender, Galron, DrippingGoofball, chkflip, Doctor Drew
pisskop (2): I Keep Siteflaking, PookyTheMagicalBear

Not Voting (2): a2rudeboy, Almost50

Things I see in this data:

The last 3 voters on IKS moved over less than 12 hours from the end and 2/3 of them came from NPOM wagon. Deadline was early in the day for US timezones. I don't know where everyone lives so it's hard to draw any conclusion from timing.

Gamma apparently had an 8 vs 8 choice and could have chosen NPOM. I doubt Gamma is bussing from the time flow, but would need to examine the posts to go deeper on that.

Walter was on IKS much earlier, left and came back near the end. This is a potential scum pattern, in particular leaving the CW at the tipping point, which needs a deeper look at the reasons given for the votes.

The reason to look at Starbuck would be to investigate the idea of a hammer for town cred. Someone made a reference to getting up early being unlikely for scum who could let it go for a no-shred. It's 6am from my timezone but that's 9am for Eastern US and late in the day for Europe. I think it's a big conclusion jump to think getting up early has anything to do with it unless you know a particular player's timezone. At E-1 at deadline, writing is on the wall and it's a tradeoff between the pain of hammering vs. not being sure if anyone knows or will figure out you ran out the clock. I don't think we can rule out a bus here. On the flip side, it's a pretty towny move.

For the last 3, I think Gamma is unlikely to be bussing, Walter's pattern could be bussing based on having been on IKS early and coming back very late, and Starbuck's vote is actually NAI because either alignment would probably do the same in that situation.

I probably better wrap this up and come back with more in another post. It's 77 lines in notepad and that's with the paragraphs counting as one.

[davesaz]

The VCA strongly indicates that pisskop is not groupscum.
If NPOM is groupscum with a much stronger roles than IKS there are a bunch of people that become much more suspect. I'm one of them. If NPOM town those same people are almost cleared.

I want to take a closer look at BEF and DGB. Need to look in more depth on Walter's vote reasons (if any). Try to remember or find who pointed out getting up early.

[a2rudeboy]

Rudeboy, is that hunch about TD, npom and looker still good?

Nothing's changed.

[BrightEyedFish]

It's just interesting how, based on our only direct interaction (I think), that you're suddenly changing your tune.

I said I was contemplating changing my tune.

[TiphaineDeath]

@Starbuck, honestly not sure how to explain my feels there. Gut and paranoia mostly x_X. You will note I am most definitely not actually voting you about it, and am in fact still hard-townreading you on actual logic.

Yeaaah, ima say chk's 1850-chunk-post felt reaaaaaly off to me, and ima vote that shit. VOTE: chk

I reaaallly like BEF's #1876, and I wanna town read them for it, and I kinda want to vote Walter, but I think ima stay on chk for now.

If there were two scum in the list of six posted in post#1884 it is very likely to be chkflip and galron. I remember not liking a bunch of galron's stuff yesterday.

I'd still really love to see NPOM die, because I am never going to stop being suspicious of them for their posts, but they are proooobably town because of the counter wagon flipping scum. It is at least statistically likely anyways. Especially with only one kill last night making me feel like we probably aren't in multi ball?

Dave vs CHK is DEFINITELY not scum v scum, unless one of them is 3P, and I am inclined to townread Dave for this.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'd still really love to see NPOM die, because I am never going to stop being suspicious of them for their posts, but they are proooobably town because of the counter wagon flipping scum. It is at least statistically likely anyways. Especially with only one kill last night making me feel like we probably aren't in multi ball?

what do you think of the fact that IKS refused to vote NPOM despite being run up like a dog

[TiphaineDeath]

I think it's more likely that it was him sticking to his guns, trying to look townie by not doing so, and saving his vote for a hammer? Like I get it's totally a possibility that we nailed 2 scum on D1, it just doesn't seem like the most-likely thing in the world so I am trying to give other worlds more credence in my analysis.

[TiphaineDeath]

Also, on further reflection I love that Dave is on Walter as well as chk, and I really want to see one of those two dead today, promoting Dave to strong toweread.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

or maybe he just didnt want to bus his godfather

[WaltertheDunce10]

I can't fucking read chk, it seems different from the game I had with him. I can't talk about the other reason why I voted for iks.