Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

[iamausername]

TSPN can't possibly be the SK, since I jailed him last night and we know the SK's kill went through.

[M4yhem]

If we think shaft.ed is mafia, wouldn't it be better to just lynch him rather than kill Alabaska for no good reason?

[Claus]

Sig -> Tomorrow

[armlx]

Well, you would be at the top, followed by Nabakov and maybe TSPN (though that's rather weak).

How can TSPN be SK? He was jailed last night.

Oh yeah, he tracked me too! OK, Cyberbob tracks Rishi, and the SK is caught for sure, no?

Yup.

If we think shaft.ed is mafia, wouldn't it be better to just lynch him rather than kill Alabaska for no good reason?

No. Even if he doesn't hide with Alabaska and we mislynch today and all the scum NK's resolve, we reach tomorrow with 6 alive (1 lynch + 1 SK kill + 1 Mafia kill + 1 vig kill). We lynch Shaft.ed who is obv scum because of his not hiding in that scenario, 4 alive the next day if all the kills resolve, SK is pretty much assured caught based on tonights actions plus the fact we will have actual infinite info based on night actions by then plus another night we can no lynch to (assuming you aren't scum, but if you are odds are your kill will not resolve).

So lets go down the list.

IAUN- Confirmed ability use, not SK by track (unless Cyber is mafia)
armlx- Confirmed ability use, not SK by track (unless Cyber is mafia)
Rishi- Confirmed ability use
Cyber- No absolute confirmation, but the fact he didn't say Twomz targeted Hermit makes it less likely he is faking, his tracks were actually a lot better then they looked
Shaft.ed- Effectively dead
Alabaska- Effectively dead
Claus- Pro-town actions
TSPN- Confirmed not SK by block

That really leave NN and M4yh3m to lynch. I feel NN's denouncement of Shaft.ed's Pug plan was pretty solid, and M4yh3m is really dangerous to have alive late game. Very slightly so, I'm definitely willing to swap if theres a compelling reason to.

Unvote, Vote M4yh3m

Actions:

Lynch M4yh3m
Rishi motivates IAUN
IAUN jails Claus + NN
Cyber tracks Rishi
Shaft.ed hides with Alabaska
I kill Alabaska
TSPN obv checks Twomz

[Alabaska J]

I personally would rather see NabNab die.

[armlx]

I personally would rather see NabNab die.

I realize.

The worst case scenario for us right now is that Cyber is mafia and one of me/IAUN is SK who dodged the bullet b/c Cyber had to lie to cover the lack of result. Seems really out there though.

[Cyberbob]

TSPN can't possibly be the SK, since I jailed him last night and we know the SK's kill went through.

Dang, forgot about that.

I don't really have a third candidate, then. I had to think pretty hard just to come up with TSPN.

[armlx]

Does anyone have any disaster scenarios for the plan? The only ones I can see leave us in end game 50/50s.

[Rishi]

Whoa. This game exploded while I was gone. Don't have time this morning to catch up. Will try to make the time soon.

[curiouskarmadog]

Official Vote Count

(Page 36, Day 2)

Cyberbob

- 3 (M4yhem, TheSweatpantsNinja)

shafted

- 2 (Cyberbob, Claus)

NabakovNabakovob

- 1 (Alabaska J)

M4yhem

- 1 (armlx)

Not Voting:

Rishi, NabakovNabakovob, shafted, iamausername,

Note: Deadline 09/08 2:00pm EST. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, 5 is a no lynch

[shaft.ed]

Does anyone have any disaster scenarios for the plan? The only ones I can see leave us in end game 50/50s.

That's what I'm trying to figure out. I am most concerned about Cyberbob suriviving because of his role with so many potential townies being knocked out of the game.

I've been thinking hard about whether the plan is worth going along with, this reminds me quite a bit of the scenario in a game I mod'ed with armlx You Are What You Eat where the town chose maximum carnage thinking one of the players that would die should end up scum and that didn't end well. On the other hand, looking at the situation from a outside perpective, I'm pretty sure I'd be calling for my own lynch at this point. Since I know I'm town, it seems like a better situation for me to at least be able to have a couple of my suspects die at the same time as myself. However, Alabaska is looking a bit more pro-town with his willingness to sacrifice for the sake of the plan, and I'm not sure why Mayhem got thrown into the mix, although he is a candidate for SK.

I would suggest a couple tweaks to the plan.
-I think we are better off Tracking Claus than Jailing him. This will give us a minumum of two trackers (or one tracker and a caught SK) going into the next day, with a possibility of three. Also on the outside chance that Claus is scum, he won't have an ability that he can use to his advantage. It also makes a tracking result that Cyberbob cannot lie about.
-I don't think double jailing is as useful as double Tracking. As much as I don't trust Cyberbob, the amount of information we will garner if a Kill is missing and two people are jailed will be very minimal as there are so many scenarios that would explain it 1) overlapping target 2) one group decided to No Kill 3) one player was jailed 4) the other player was jailed. Tracking results (real or faked) give us more information to run with than jailkeeps.
-I also like the idea of allowing NabNab into the night phase simply from a role related perspective, as he can absorb the Doc powers of the Inventor and creat a WIFOM situation for the SK whereby if he tries to kill TSPN and TSPN is jailed NabNab is then available to Doc protect TSPN the next night meaning the SK is outed. However, if he tries to kill NabNab and TSPN is not jailed he is outed tommorow. Note that this situation breaks down if NabNab is the SK, but I find him more likely mafia than SK if scum. Also not sure if we will have enough players alive for this to matter.
-Finally, I think we should have a back up plan if we lynch scum. I think we might be able to come up with a better scenario if we're only looking for a single scum after the lynch.

[armlx]

-I don't think double jailing is as useful as double Tracking. As much as I don't trust Cyberbob, the amount of information we will garner if a Kill is missing and two people are jailed will be very minimal as there are so many scenarios that would explain it 1) overlapping target 2) one group decided to No Kill 3) one player was jailed 4) the other player was jailed. Tracking results (real or faked) give us more information to run with than jailkeeps.

Double jailing = less power role deaths = v good. Your ideas all fair if Cyber just dies tonight.

[shaft.ed]

Your ideas all fair if Cyber just dies tonight.

That's a good point. Though I'm not really opposed to that happening.

Do you still think Nab is the right jailing target. I'd prefer to leave him "open" (ie at IAUN's discretion) to create the SK WIFOM situation I described above.

[armlx]

Do you still think Nab is the right jailing target. I'd prefer to leave him "open" (ie at IAUN's discretion) to create the SK WIFOM situation I described above.

If he is alive, yeah. Whoever of (May/Nab/Claus) is alive should be jailed.

[M4yhem]

That really leave NN and M4yh3m to lynch. I feel NN's denouncement of Shaft.ed's Pug plan was pretty solid, and M4yh3m is really dangerous to have alive late game. Very slightly so, I'm definitely willing to swap if theres a compelling reason to.

Unvote, Vote M4yh3m

Compelling reason? I restarted the Pug wagon and pushed for his lynch until he was dead. I'd say that gives me a reduced risk of being mafia (from an outsider's point of view- I know I'm town). You can't really say the same for NabNab.

Also, I'm only 'dangerous' if I'm on the other team. As a protown role, I'm a valuable asset to the town in endgame and I don't understand why you would want to get rid of that.

As for Cyberbob's results, why would he lie if he was mafia? He wants us to find the serial killer and if Twomz was sent to do the killing, there wouldn't be any missing results to explain.

I really don't like your eagerness to kill people, Armlx. Why kill Alabaska? Yeah, some people have been suspicious of him but that's true of several other people as well. Shouldn't we be trying to minimize the townie deaths here? It seems like your plan will just accelerate us into the endgame and I'm really not comfortable with that.

[armlx]

Also, I'm only 'dangerous' if I'm on the other team. As a protown role, I'm a valuable asset to the town in endgame and I don't understand why you would want to get rid of that.

Except you aren't really. Scum just kills you after the 2-1 stage. I've done the math.

Compelling reason? I restarted the Pug wagon and pushed for his lynch until he was dead. I'd say that gives me a reduced risk of being mafia (from an outsider's point of view- I know I'm town). You can't really say the same for NabNab.

Yeah, but Nab also pushed pug over Alabaska. Its a more a who is SK vote then a who is mafia vote.

As for Cyberbob's results, why would he lie if he was mafia? He wants us to find the serial killer and if Twomz was sent to do the killing, there wouldn't be any missing results to explain.

Meh, this keeps coming back to the "Bob would have killed Rishi if he was motivated scum and lying". He's probably not mafia.

I really don't like your eagerness to kill people, Armlx. Why kill Alabaska?

He is possible scum.

Shouldn't we be trying to minimize the townie deaths here?

We should be maximizing our chances to kill scum. Townie deaths in the process are secondary to that goal.

It seems like your plan will just accelerate us into the endgame and I'm really not comfortable with that.

Why is that bad when all the kills are directed by us?

[shaft.ed]

As for Cyberbob's results, why would he lie if he was mafia? He wants us to find the serial killer and if Twomz was sent to do the killing, there wouldn't be any missing results to explain.

Because if he chooses to kill he cannot use his tracking ability, thus he must lie. I've already pointed out that if you have to fake watch or fake track, you're going to chose fake track most of the time.

[shaft.ed]

Meh, this keeps coming back to the "Bob would have killed Rishi if he was motivated scum and lying". He's probably not mafia.

This is not true. Role resolution order is
1) everyone submits first choice
2) the motivatee is notified of being motivated
3) the motivatee submits second choice

[armlx]

This is not true. Role resolution order is
1) everyone submits first choice
2) the motivatee is notified of being motivated
3) the motivatee submits second choice

Hmm, ok then. Doesn't change much of my opinion on the scenario though.

[shaft.ed]

Why is that bad when all the kills are directed by us?

Because most of the direction centers on "kill people that aren't necessary for the double Jailing, single tracking plan." Basically armlx, Rishi, IAUN, and Cyberbob cannot be considered for lynchin/vig'ing. On the other hand I've already stated that I would be extremely unlikely to lynch three of these four players today anyway.

[armlx]

Because most of the direction centers on "kill people that aren't necessary for the double Jailing, single tracking plan." Basically armlx, Rishi, IAUN, and Cyberbob cannot be considered for lynchin/vig'ing. On the other hand I've already stated that I would be extremely unlikely to lynch three of these four players today anyway.

I'm p sure of those being possibly killed tonight, 3 of the 4 are top suspects (Alabaska, NN, you).

[Cyberbob]

Unh. I like that shaft.ed is so up in arms with his suspicions of me when pretty much the only thing that created said suspicion is the fact that I was motivated, and happened to track people that claimed after me. Both things which were out of my control. :rolleyes:

[shaft.ed]

Unh. I like that shaft.ed is so up in arms with his suspicions of me when pretty much the only thing that created said suspicion is the fact that I was motivated, and happened to track people that claimed after me. Both things which were out of my control. :rolleyes:

No I have other reasons, I just haven't had a chance to thoroughly give day 1 a thorough reread.

[M4yhem]

Directed by you, Armlx. Not us. I don't want you to kill Alabaska. I'd prefer you to track tonight.

You say Alabaska is possible scum- so are you! Not SK, maybe, but still. Unless you have a compelling case against Alabaska, you can't just kill him.

And if you think I'm likely to die anyway, it makes little sense to kill me.

What makes you think I'm the serial killer?

[armlx]

so are you!

No, I'm track confirmed not SK, and pretty strongly evidenced not mafia by using a night action. Much less possible.

What makes you think I'm the serial killer?

POE, of you + NN you are more dangerous.

And if you think I'm likely to die anyway, it makes little sense to kill me.

Only once the game is already over will you be the scum kill target.