Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[davesaz]

Where was the claim in this sequence

Timestamp of IKS's claim Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:00:09 pm
After my vote, about 20-30 minutes before NPOM's vote.

[davesaz]

I still think that limiting analysis to one end of the wagon is too narrow focused. I have only had time to do the back end so far but remain interested in looking at earlier votes too. The back end looked more interesting as a place to start because I noticed that the front half was already there and stayed very stable when the big switch from Galron, to NPOM, to pisskop, and back happened.

[Iecerint]

VOTE: NPOM

This vote is based on my case D1, plus similar behavior from him today (e.g., not scumhunting, making irrelevant comments, trying to get others off-track). I think his behavior is best explained by a scum wincon. He does not behave this way in his games in general. Pisskop's wagon having been an anternawagon on such flimsy grounds supports this.

I think its unlikely that both were scum. Where does that leave scum before the wagon on me?

I think both of them being scum ACCOUNTS FOR the wagon on you (e.g., IKS and NPOM voted for you and tried to get others to vote for you).

[Lavender]

At this point, if Lavender makes it far in the game and wins as either town or scum i will rage.

If it makes you feel better I was lynched on Day 1 quite a lot.
Let me have a moment of peace eh?

I would search up beetlejuicing but I can guess the context. *o*

[chkflip]

Wagon's not even worth my time, son.

[chkflip]

Iec, we had two scum pegged on D1 y/n?

Galron, Drew, Lavender, Looker, NPOM: give me content.

[Doctor Drew]

I hope to get a more detailed catch up of the days action tonight, but I am very tired, so no guarantees.

I will say that I feel more and more drawn to a NPOM wagon, still has no demonstrated any pro-town actions.

I also have a hard time believing chk is scum, maybe his finally appeasing me by deep diving on dave is affecting my viewpoint lol.

Looker, please explain the 'connection' between PK and I a littler further.

Star, I am not WK'ing or anything like that in regards to BeF. My issues are with your reaction to their plan to analyze the wagon.

Just cracked a beer, hopefully this gives me some motivation.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I think its unlikely that both were scum.

I think this is a logical fallacy as it does not account for our knowledge that IKS is scum.

The probability of any 2 people being scum together is lower than the probability of any 1 person being scum.

However the probability of NPOM being scum given that IKS is scum is not equivalent to the probability of IKS/NPOM both being scum independently.

In pure probability terms - we are talking about what the probability of NPOM as scum is independently of IKS alignment.

However given that IKS flipped red and refused to vote NPOM despite NPOM being pretty scummy and within the range of being lynched while IKS was under threat of being lynched increases the probability that NPOM is also a scum.

[Doctor Drew]

I think its unlikely that both were scum.

I think this is a logical fallacy as it does not account for our knowledge that IKS is scum.

The probability of any 2 people being scum together is lower than the probability of any 1 person being scum.

However the probability of NPOM being scum given that IKS is scum is not equivalent to the probability of IKS/NPOM both being scum independently.

In pure probability terms - we are talking about what the probability of NPOM as scum is independently of IKS alignment.

However given that IKS flipped red and refused to vote NPOM despite NPOM being pretty scummy and within the range of being lynched while IKS was under threat of being lynched increases the probability that NPOM is also a scum.

Dammit Pooky, why are you making me agree with you?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

are you trying to pocket me

[Doctor Drew]

Goofball seems to vote without a clear thought process. Also lack of quotes makes it hard to tell. Interesting to note while voting for Walter thae reply to someone was vote for iks. The claim stall is a bit weird. Other than that believes npom is scum. Considers to vote iks for that post on refusing to vote for npom. Neutral feeling
I am curious goofball if you believed both were scum why did you believe people who voted for other than npom deserve to be vigged?
pedit Do you mind pointing to where chkflip says that?

I got excited because NPOM was claim stalling. Everyone knows how I feel about that; claim stalls are 100% scum all the time, no exception.

At the same time, I good good feels from IKS because he claimed quickly, and his role description has some parallels with mine.

But then someone pointed out that the Developper bit was not very guitaristy, and I started to think IKS had outed the scum flavor, but I couldn't be sure.

This sounds like town DGB, at least from the little I know of her.

[Doctor Drew]

Ice goof and drew don't look great.

Elaborate please.

[NoPowerOverMe]

Because I am generating a lot of content which is obviously protown but they are insisting that I am scummy and not considering town me. Plus they were on my wagon.

[Doctor Drew]

Because I am generating a lot of content which is obviously protown but they are insisting that I am scummy and not considering town me. Plus they were on my wagon.

You know I am Drew right?

So OMGUS is the reason that Goof, Ice, and I are scum?

[NoPowerOverMe]

Spin it that way if you like

[NoPowerOverMe]

You sure are a selective listener

[NoPowerOverMe]

I guarantee at least one if not two of those are scum

[a2rudeboy]

I think its unlikely that both were scum.

I think this is a logical fallacy as it does not account for our knowledge that IKS is scum.

The probability of any 2 people being scum together is lower than the probability of any 1 person being scum.

However the probability of NPOM being scum given that IKS is scum is not equivalent to the probability of IKS/NPOM both being scum independently.

In pure probability terms - we are talking about what the probability of NPOM as scum is independently of IKS alignment.

However given that IKS flipped red and refused to vote NPOM despite NPOM being pretty scummy and within the range of being lynched while IKS was under threat of being lynched increases the probability that NPOM is also a scum.

All probability is 50/50. It is or isn't, happens or doesn't happen.

[Doctor Drew]

You aren't saying anything besides how townie you think you are.

[DrippingGoofball]

Or my role could be totally worthless.

Is that a.... a.................................

scumslip?

[DrippingGoofball]

Scumslips are often weak, and yes this one is weak too, but it feels soooooo much like it's written straight from a scum perspecetive. So, so much.

"Or MY role could be totally worthless."

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

caught for the wrong reason scum?

[Gamma Emerald]

Scumslips are often weak, and yes this one is weak too, but it feels soooooo much like it's written straight from a scum perspecetive. So, so much.

"Or MY role could be totally worthless."

yeah it's a sort of smug that I think is scum lording their extra knowledge over us, I did call out that fhpov that response wasn't needed

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yea lets do this

VOTE: NPOM

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: NPOM