Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Nosferatu]

i will make a post next time i am conscious

[Looker]

• I went skydiving today and passed my AFF Lvl 1 jump!

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I am vanilla townie

I'm SJReaver/Vanilla Townie

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• I don't mod or balance setups, so I'd like to know if we as a playerlist are confirming Titus as town right now.

[geraintm]

don't have time to post properly today. will do tomorrow, looking at votes. also have weird theory that is nagging away

[callforjudgement]

I think everyone (except confirmed town Walter) has claimed now? Here are the claims/flips, and known actions, of every player:

• ItalianoVD: Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour. Died N3. Targeted Nosferatu N1 (#1531), blocked by CFJ N2 (#1746, #1861), targeted geraintm N3 (#1833).
  
• callforjudgement: Town Alien (#1861). Alive. Targeted Tayl0r N1 (#946), Italiano N2 (#1746), Titus N3 (no evidence, Titus is VT).
  
• Gamma Emerald: Mafia Multitasking Tracker. Died D3. Target unknown N1 (claimed Titus in #1710, but was scum so may have been lying, Walter N2 (#1710, #1734, #1861).
  
• shellyc: Mafia Goon. Died D1.
  
• Looker: Vanilla Townie (#1876). Alive.
  
• Not_Mafia: Vanilla Townie. Died N1.
  
• geraintm: Vanilla Townie (#1867). Alive.
  
• Raya36: Vanilla Townie. Died D2.
  
• Frogsterking: Vanilla Townie (#1870). Alive.
  
• Nosferatu: Vanilla Townie (#1874). Alive.
  
• Titus: Vanilla Townie (#1862). Alive.
  
• Tayl0r Swift: Town PT Cop. Died N2. Blocked by CFJ N1 (#946, #1861). N2 action is unknown but doesn't really matter.
  
• WaltertheDunce10: Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour (#1863). Alive. Targeted Frogsterking N1 (#1870), CFJ N2 (#1660, #1861), N3 action unclaimed.

I think it's time for Walter to claim his N3 action. Based on current claims, the only player who would have failed to receive Walter's N3 Friendly Neighbour action was Titus (also Italiano, but there is no chance Walter would target Italiano last night). If Walter did target Titus last night (which seems likely based on stated reads), that confirms me as an Alien specifically (and scum are most likely vanilla apart from the known Tracker). If Walter targeted someone else, then there's an unclaimed power role around (effectively confirming me as town because a 9:4 wouldn't give scum three power roles).

Assuming that Walter did target Titus, then the setup is:
Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour ×2
Town PT Cop
Town Alien
VT ×6
Mafia Multitasking Tracker
Mafia Goon
Mafia (unknown, but probably Goon, possibly an investigative)

From the point of view of people who aren't me and don't know I'm town, it could alternatively be:
Town Friendly Neighbour Neighbour ×2
Town PT Cop
VT ×7
Mafia Multitasking Tracker
Mafia Multitasking Alien
Mafia Goon

The second setup looks pretty scumsided to me (scum are likely to figure out power roles quickly, the PT Cop is screwed as soon as she claims anything because she can be easily blocked

or

killed, and the PT Cop is quite likely to accidentally claim a guilty on the Friendly Neighbours), although I might be biased because I already know it's wrong. The first setup looks a little townsided, but is more believable (I think the Alien was probably added as a protective who shuts down the town power roles when protecting them, Jailkeeper-style, and the reason it's an Alien rather than a Jailkeeper is to reduce the townsidedness of the setup a bit (it increases the chance I'll block one of the town power roles by accident).

I'm still V/LA, and probably won't be able to check this thread for several hours (I might see a post if it's made immediately, and might be able to take a quick peek in in a few hours time but won't be able to make any substantial posts).

[Frogsterking]

Why can't CFJ just be a mafia role blocker?

[callforjudgement]

I don't yet know who Walter targeted last night. I've already claimed my action.

If I were a Roleblocker, fakeclaiming as Alien, I'd either have to block Walter (thus blocking him regardless of his target), or else not block Walter (thus not blocking him regardless of his target). So there might well be a discrepancy in the claims that could be detected. As it is, being an actual Alien, I strongly suspect that Walter's target last night was Titus, because it's the only target that's consistent with the claims so far. This is information I can deduce as an Alien, and wouldn't be able to as a Roleblocker, and thus should be strong (but not conclusive) evidence of my role.

Even if you think I'm just guessing at who Walter's target is, there's a second reason why I wouldn't claim a blocking role as scum: as it is, with my claim, I currently have to target a player every night, and every time I do, I confirm them as town if anyone dies overnight. So if I were scum, I would at this point inevitably end up eventually losing the game through PoE (unless I could somehow get all of you, Looker, geraintm, Nosfeartu eliminated in preference to me, which seems very implausible). I will try, as scum, to avoid making a claim that will automatically lose me the game (I have made that mistake before because I had to claim under time pressure, shortly after replacing in, which means that I'm very unlikely to make it when I've had an entire Night to think about things). Even if you think I might make such a claim, it isn't worth worrying about the possibility yet because town will end up winning anyway if it's the case. If I were hypothetically scum, the simple thing to do would just have been to claim VT; then people would know there was an unclaimed scum manipulative role, but wouldn't know who it was, and thus it wouldn't make me into any sort of target.

[WaltertheDunce10]

It is titus for n3.

[callforjudgement]

OK. In that case, I think that (assuming scum don't have an unclaimed manipulative role that somehow hasn't produced any visible effect yet, and don't have a Strongman), we have something very close to a forced town win here (even if you don't assume I'm town).

Without help from town power roles, we get to eliminate three people (on Day 4, Day 5, and Day 6; Night 6 is the earliest possible scum win because scum can't kill more than one player per day and, given the lack of additional town power, there must only one left).

With help from my power role, we get to either confirm or eliminate a fourth person (every Night there's a kill will confirm someone, and if there are two Nights with no kill then we will be able to make use of the Day 7 elimination). We can't control whether scum choose to nightkill or not, so a night with no kill won't prove anything, but "it's a 6:1 and scum are choosing not to kill" is a pretty good outcome in any case.

There are only five unconfirmed players (Looker, Frogster, geraintm, Nosferatu, and me). Thus, if we can identify even a single player in that group of five who we all think is town, we have a forced town victory. (Note: I'd prefer to aim my Alien action at players who are probably, but not certainly, town anyway. That reduces the chance that we lose if scum have a power role that can fool my "investigation".) It doesn't matter whether anyone thinks I'm scum or not for this; every night you leave me alive then either there's no kill or someone gets confirmed (because if I were hypothetically scum, my confirmation would be on a player who was town anyway because they were not me, and thus you can take it as fact that anyone I confirm is town even if you don't know my alignment).

We don't have to agree yet on which of those five players should be the one we agree as the "townie who goes through to the end", either; we can decide later, simply eliminating scummy players and confirming players overnight until we get there. (In order to maximise town win chance, this plan does require leaving me alive until at least Day 6; if people are still suspicious of me then, they can eliminate me at that point.) However, scum will probably aim their nightkills in order to sow WIFOM and/or get rid of people who suspect them or might come to suspect them, so we may be more accurate in identifying a townie now than on a future day (scumhunting post-massclaim is often very difficult).

[Titus]

Why can't CFJ just be a mafia role blocker?

Mafia Alien is a possibility. I got no message from Walter. I'll check with the moderator.

However if CFD is a mafia roleblocker, he must clear someone each night, assuming 10 v 3. We lynch him at ELO minus 1, thus confirming his clears or winning.

[Titus]

Mod confirmed no message from Walter received.

[WaltertheDunce10]

I did try to send it to you so there.

[Frogsterking]

I'm inclined to believe CFJ's claim, I often FOS PRs.

[Frogsterking]

Among the VTs I think it's important to not bring forth any presumptions about the game. I think two scum flips might be enough to find some solid deductive and inductive reasoning for lunging one player over another.

[Frogsterking]

On first glance it looks like Looker is town because Gamma joined town BWs on town players and didn't move his vote that much. I think it's worth looking into more closely.

[Frogsterking]

My FoS is Titus.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.5

Nosferatu(4)

~ Frogsterking(11), WaltertheDunce10(43), ItalianoVD(30), callforjudgement(34)

callforjudgement(2)

~ RCEnigma(38), Nosferatu(38)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Not_Mafia(10), Raya36(19)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(19)

geraintm(1)

~ SJReaver(47)

Frogsterking(1)

~ BananaCucho(39)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(31), sordros(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

NONE

FLAVOR

Scum know that Nos is town and avoid jumping on the BW, or scum is Nos or already on Nos wagon? Which is more likely?

[Frogsterking]

In hindsight, quick hammering there would have been better for them.

[geraintm]

Why can't CFJ just be a mafia role blocker?

I don't yet know who Walter targeted last night. I've already claimed my action.

If I were a Roleblocker, fakeclaiming as Alien, I'd either have to block Walter (thus blocking him regardless of his target), or else not block Walter (thus not blocking him regardless of his target). So there might well be a discrepancy in the claims that could be detected. As it is, being an actual Alien, I strongly suspect that Walter's target last night was Titus, because it's the only target that's consistent with the claims so far. This is information I can deduce as an Alien, and wouldn't be able to as a Roleblocker, and thus should be strong (but not conclusive) evidence of my role.

I am not sure I follow CFJ's logic here in why he needed to target Walter??

I'm inclined to believe CFJ's claim, I often FOS PRs.

but I was already at this stage in believing CFJ. and I think if it isn't true we will work it out by when it matters.

My FoS is Titus.

is this real?

i am trying to guess what role scum could have to throw off the game's progression. They need something other than Tracker, i'm not clever enough to work out what role's they could have that would compliment that and the neighbourhood thing and the PT cop

[Titus]

Votecount 1.5

Nosferatu(4)

~ Frogsterking(11), WaltertheDunce10(43), ItalianoVD(30), callforjudgement(34)

callforjudgement(2)

~ RCEnigma(38), Nosferatu(38)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Not_Mafia(10), Raya36(19)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(19)

geraintm(1)

~ SJReaver(47)

Frogsterking(1)

~ BananaCucho(39)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(31), sordros(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

NONE

FLAVOR

Scum know that Nos is town and avoid jumping on the BW, or scum is Nos or already on Nos wagon? Which is more likely?

The votes make it hard to believe cfd is town, but objectively the best play is to keep him alive until exlo plus one day.

[Titus]

My FoS is Titus.

I am literally conftown.

[Frogsterking]

My FoS is Titus.

I am literally conftown.

Not literally

[Frogsterking]

Fine I will reassess.

[Frogsterking]

This group is horrible to choose from.

[Frogsterking]

Do you guys think Gamma was intended to be deep scum?

[Frogsterking]

@Gamma: I know you’ve asked me a few questions and I’ll feel better about answering them if you can answer these for me. And these are not traps or assumptive at all.

- You mentioned that you were checking people somewhat visible but without claimed active powers. Did Not_Mafia who also faked a pr ping you at all. And on Day 2, Taylor was hinting at a pr along with RCEnigma’s second claim. Walter never hinted at anything. I know it’s probably WIFOM, I’m just trying to understand the thought process here.

- Do you feel the suspicion on you has been scum driven? Meaning, you have been getting scumread for a good part of the game and I would have to look back to see where it started, but do you feel your suspicion/scumreads are legitimate/fair or illegitimate/unfair?

NM's claim was prompted by Nosferatu's post asking for it, so it was less worth my time. I chose Walter n2 because I thought the second neighbor might have a PR or be scum, my expectation was initially actual that no action should be more indicative of scum because of that original supposition. I understand my second action is a little weird, but I already mentioned Among Us affecting my thought process and I think that's where the chief impact is. In that game I tend to like to follow up on leads that are already existent.

• Raya had better things to do.

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VOTE: Raya

Don't @ me.

I feel the logical thing would be to eliminate RCEnigma today. VOTE: RCEnigma

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

Are you going to follow-up with this?

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• CFJ is right - I picked geraintm over shelly D1
  • I had no idea who was scum.
• I wonder if CFJ would put this much effort into posts as either alignment. I'm willing to help him kill off RCE.
  
• There's a difference between survivalism/poor play and being scummy. I'm free to criticize either.

Among Us is taking up most of my time - it's mafiascum on steroids. The stupid comes at you twice as fast lol

They both mention this. Could be NAI, could be Gamma attempt ing to mirror Looker.