Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

Possibly prob had realized outing as tracker was not the right move.

Okay.. and do you believe it's more likely Gamma knew this going into it and was intending to die or he that he believed his tracker claim was going to carry the scum team?

[WaltertheDunce10]

I am not sure but otherwise why shade cfj about and try to reveal info.
I think it may have been the latter though I could go either way. The frustration could be either from being bussed by scum mate or scum mate not being helpful at all.

[Frogsterking]

The fact he even feels he has the space to throw something like that in there implies to me he has a quiet team mate.

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: I don't understand what two points you're trying to compare in #1899. I've looked at the two posts you've quoted and are trying to figure out what they have in common.

Is it the mention of Among Us? It's a Mafia dervative that has received a huge surge in popularity lately, so it isn't surprising that it might end up sucking away the time of a Mafia player or two.

Yes you are correct in your assumption here and I respect your opinion.

I believe it means something that Gamma brought the same thing up later.

I think a scum might out an excuse for their in-game behavior that's similar to one another townie has used rather than their partner who is also under suspicion.

I'm less inclined to lynch Looker today for this reason.

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

+ Do you think he was intending to die or win lylo?

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

Why would a townie even need to know Italiano's schedule? Either he's confirmed or he isn't (in this case, he's confirmed). So at this point, any further Friendly Neighbour actions he has are effectively Fruit Vendor actions (i.e. they're visible to the recipient but no additional information is gained); and seeing as he's confirmed, he can use them as he likes.

Knowing Italiano's schedule would only be useful to eliminate possibilities in which Italiano were scum, but those possibilities have been eliminated anyway.

I was mostly trying to get a sense of whether my thoughts were on track without asking the person I felt would have had the least motive to tell the truth (Walter, if he was scum).

I recall SRing Walter d1 but d2 he wasn't really a focal point for me at all

I've already claimed tracker, maybe trying reading the actual game instead of hopping immediately to VCA? I know you did this same thing of in Arbiter's Takeover so this doesn't look good on you.
I'm scumleaning walter, not sure on geraint, cfj I am thinking is scum rn

Walter is scum via setup spec, call is scum because I don't like how he's reacted to my questioning. Geraint I mostly have lost my handle on, I had a read on him earlier but don't feel as strongly about it now and have lost focus on that reasoning

And that doesn't change the fact this is the exact play you had in AT, and RCE wasn't exactly a towny slot to start with. You should be able to read at least a few things, rather than just being a total stick in the mud and forcing everyone else to walk you through the game. There's inherent scum advantage to that as well, as it let's you figure out the gamestate without having to put your mindset out there while doing so. In fact:
VOTE: Titus
This doesn't move until there's a good reason to vote someone else or you read at least enough of today to figure out what's going on.

Gamma acts more confused around reads on certain players and I believe those players are town.

Confused and conflicted I should say.

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

I'll wait for everyone to respond to my recent series of questions before outting my new FoS in ~24 hours

To summarize the above, I have a handful of new reads, all town except for one, and I will reveal my new FoS tomorrow night in the hope my questions can be answered before then, for scum hunting purposes. Here are my questions:

#1
@Looker
@Nosferatu

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum, was he intending to carry the tracker claim through lylo or was he the throw-away scum with the game state today being entered into willingly?

#2
@All

Do you believe the frustration expressed by Gamma in his final post and in getting doubted as tracker were genuine?

[callforjudgement]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

Possibly prob had realized outing as tracker was not the right move.

I agree with this. I think Gamma didn't have any sort of grand plan Day 3; just realised that the wording of my Friendly Neighbour claim was off, and combined with tracking Walter to me, decided to test whether Walter was a Friendly Neighbour too. Unfortunately, he didn't realise that it would reveal rather too much about what he was thinking in the process, and ended up digging himself into a hole, then into a larger hole trying to escape from the first one. I guess this is the same category of things as a "scumslip", although not exactly the same as scumslips usually are.

It's also possible that he thought "CFJ will refuse to answer this question, nobody else will understand why, I can get CFJ miseliminated like that", and failed to think through what would happen after I was forced into a claim. That seems less likely, though.

I think Gamma would have been quite annoyed/frustrated when he realised how badly he'd screwed up.

[callforjudgement]

Also, it's quite possible that this game's scumteam doesn't have much in the way of long-term plans. Some scumteams decide on a plan for the whole game, in terms of who's going to survive to the end, who's going to be bussed, which townies to go after, etc.. But most scumteams don't, and even when they do, the plan normally doesn't end up working out the way they expect.

I was townreading Gamma before he started pushing me over my claim to receive a Friendly Neighbour message, and I think lots of other players were also mostly ignoring him in favour of people who were more actively scummy. (Italiano had a strong scumread on Gamma (#1614), but I vaguely remember he was in the minority; I haven't checked.) So it's quite possible that scum were hoping to fly under the radar for a while and that townies would miseliminate each other.

[Frogsterking]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

Possibly prob had realized outing as tracker was not the right move.

I agree with this. I think Gamma didn't have any sort of grand plan Day 3; just realised that the wording of my Friendly Neighbour claim was off, and combined with tracking Walter to me, decided to test whether Walter was a Friendly Neighbour too. Unfortunately, he didn't realise that it would reveal rather too much about what he was thinking in the process, and ended up digging himself into a hole, then into a larger hole trying to escape from the first one. I guess this is the same category of things as a "scumslip", although not exactly the same as scumslips usually are.

It's also possible that he thought "CFJ will refuse to answer this question, nobody else will understand why, I can get CFJ miseliminated like that", and failed to think through what would happen after I was forced into a claim. That seems less likely, though.

I think Gamma would have been quite annoyed/frustrated when he realised how badly he'd screwed up.

I see.. I believe these are all possibilities.

[Frogsterking]

Also, it's quite possible that this game's scumteam doesn't have much in the way of long-term plans. Some scumteams decide on a plan for the whole game, in terms of who's going to survive to the end, who's going to be bussed, which townies to go after, etc.. But most scumteams don't, and even when they do, the plan normally doesn't end up working out the way they expect.

I was townreading Gamma before he started pushing me over my claim to receive a Friendly Neighbour message, and I think lots of other players were also mostly ignoring him in favour of people who were more actively scummy. (Italiano had a strong scumread on Gamma (#1614), but I vaguely remember he was in the minority; I haven't checked.) So it's quite possible that scum were hoping to fly under the radar for a while and that townies would miseliminate each other.

Yes I agree and I believe the scum team is low-conscientiousness from the OCEAN model based on events that have happened this game. Arguably introverted and low openness as well.

[Frogsterking]

The *remaining scum or team.

[Looker]

Is RCE/Titus conftown or nah? The only conftown I'm seeing right now is Walter. I'm vulnerable to accepting either 10:3 or 9:4; I really don't know the difference.

[callforjudgement]

Assuming no power role shenanigans, Titus didn't perform the nightkill.

If she's scum, then who did?

[geraintm]

@looker I can only see titus being not town if they have a strongman type role to counter CFJ's claim. I don't kno whow likely that is. 4 scum would mean very weak role for those scum left - but might explain why shelly got lynched day one?

@frogster I don't know what OCEAN model is.

I am not going to guess what gamma was thinking as they were getting lynched. i wait until the end of game, i suspect their posts on entry to the dead thread will make interesting reading. gamma's posts look like they were just trying to not give anything up when they got lynched, they look like they had mentioned everyone else in the game.

[Nosferatu]

#1
@Looker
@Nosferatu

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum, was he intending to carry the tracker claim through lylo or was he the throw-away scum with the game state today being entered into willingly?

#2
@All

Do you believe the frustration expressed by Gamma in his final post and in getting doubted as tracker were genuine?

no
yes

[Nosferatu]

@frogster I don't know what OCEAN model is.

dubious personality model

openness to experience (inventive/curious vs. consistent/cautious)
conscientiousness (efficient/organized vs. extravagant/careless)
extraversion (outgoing/energetic vs. solitary/reserved)
agreeableness (friendly/compassionate vs. challenging/callous)
neuroticism (sensitive/nervous vs. resilient/confident)

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 4.3

Looker(1)

~ callforjudgement(23)

geraintm(1)

~ Titus(21)


Not Voting (5): geraintm(6), Frogsterking(31), WaltertheDunce10(8), Nosferatu(7), Looker(9)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-16 00:31:59)

[Titus]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

@Frogster, Does Geratim fit within your Ocean theory? Did Walter claim D1?

I struggle to see how the Walter and Shelley wagons are pure. If I am understanding you correctly, the scumteam is low engagement. That should mean most of my VCA clears are correct (Nos, you). I know I am town.

That leaves CFD and geratim as suspects.

I struggle to buy Looker as scum because that would make 2 scum voting elsewhere while shelley was wagoned.

[callforjudgement]

I struggle to buy Looker as scum because that would make 2 scum voting elsewhere while shelley was wagoned.

Gamma didn't post anywhere on site between 07:47:41 UTC on Saturday 4 September and 04:34:15 UTC on Sunday 6 September.

At Gamma's last post before the break, the votecount looked like this:
ItalianoVD (4): RCEnigma, shellyc, callforjudgement, Nosferatu
WaltertheDunce10 (2): Raya36, Not_Mafia
geraintm (2): Gamma Emerald, Frogsterking
callforjudgement (2): ItalianoVD, Looker
Not_Mafia (2): geraintm, WaltertheDunce10
shellyc (1): Tayl0r Swift

As of Gamma's first post after the break (#822; 823, also by Gamma, said "what are the actual votes rn"), the votecount looked like this:

WaltertheDunce10 (4): Raya36, Not_Mafia, callforjudgement, Nosferatu
shellyc (4): Tayl0r Swift, Frogsterking, ItalianoVD, WaltertheDunce10
talianoVD (2): RCEnigma, shellyc
geraintm (2): Gamma Emerald, Looker
Not_Mafia (1): geraintm

Quite a difference. Gamma then disappeared again, and because the game was critically close to deadline, players started consolidating on the top wagons. We also know that shelly had gone missing in this time (having failed to respond to a prod).

What would you expect Gamma, as scum, to do at this point? I would expect him to join the Walter wagon, if online. geraintm changed vote to Walter shortly after Gamma's post. RCEnigma (Titus) had offered to hammer if someone else placed the E-2 vote. If Gamma votes Walter, Walter gets hammered. As a consequence, I think Gamma was probably offline at deadline (there hadn't been a votecount in a while, so he perhaps didn't notice how close the game was to deadline while quickly popping in). I am almost certain that shelly was unaware of this game, both because she was under replacement from failing to respond to a prod, and because she had no logical reason not to cross-vote Walter even if the scum were planning to bus. (Oddly, she was posting elsewhere on site, so presumably she somehow forgot about this game in particular. Note that she omitted this game from the list of ongoing games in her signature, even while she was alive here, so maybe she forgot about it.)

We have two flipped scum, and neither of them were on either of the two main wagons at the time. I think the most logical explanation is that the deadline caught scum as a whole unaware, and they weren't paying attention to deadline voting the way townies would have been. Eventually, the shelly wagon ended up being pushed over the line by players who townread her, simply because we were running very low on options.


@

Titus

: I'd also be interested to hear your opinion on geraintm's vote progression (#824, #830 (just before deadline), #834 (after deadline extension), #859, in fairly quick succession). I saw this as indicative of geraintm as town, but you seem to have a different opinion on it? Note that I consider the hammer in #834 to be non-alignment-indicative because shellyc was inevitably going to be the day's elimination at that point.

[callforjudgement]

That said, I agree with you that this makes Nosferatu probably town. In this situation, it's mathematically possible to stake the game on Nosferatu being town – we only need to identify one townie who isn't currently confirmed to get a 100% forced win (barring unlikely scum power roles, and even those can be played around to some extent), and we can't win without identifying at least one such townie (there has to be someone unconfirmed who we don't eliminate in the final 2:1/3:1).

I think that out of {CFJ, Nosferatu, geraintm, Frogsterking, Looker}, we should probably leave either Nosferatu or me as the designated surviving townie, and I think that suspicion of me is high enough that people are unlikely to let me through to the end. So I'm happy to leave Nosfeatau non-eliminated and non-confirmed, and simply eliminate or confirm everyone else who's currently unconfirmed.

I've ended up losing my motivation for scumhunting a bit recently because it feels like it should be a forced win almost regardless. If anyone here thinks that's there's a significant chance that Nosferatu is scum, now would be a good time to speak up. Otherwise, I'm likely to just sheep because there isn't any particular reason (other than saving time) to figure out which of the unconfirmed players is actually scum, we simply need to find one townie.

[Titus]

@CFD, I see geratim as someone who voted shelley when they were the inevitable lynch, unvoted when he hoped for a claim and revoted when her lynch was inevitable. That exchange could be town motivated but I lean scum, especially given the context.

[Titus]

Also does your analysis factor in your lynch at Elo plus one day?

[callforjudgement]

It's OK to eliminate me at 4:1 but not at 5:1, if you want the forced win to occur. The theory goes that if we reach a 5:1 setup, I'm town, and we miseliminate, I will by that point know who the remaining scum is (because i'll know it isn't me and will be guessing it isn't Nosferatu) and will be able to block them. That takes us to 4:1, giving us enough time to eliminate both me and the scum.

If we reach a 5:1 setup, miseliminate someone other than me, and there's a death overnight, that would narrow down scum to me versus Nosferatu, and town would end up choosing incorrectly. This is what I mean by that "we have to identify one townie"; the plan results in a town loss if Nosferatu is scum. However, I think we'll lose anyway if Nosferatu is scum (seeing as he's close to a universal townread), and the plan guarantees a win in all other situations, because I'll stay alive long enough to confirm everyone but Nosferatu, me, and the scum, and we will be in a 4:1 ending and have enough eliminations to get rid of both me and them (the order in which this happens really doesn't matter, so if you'd prefer to do me first, I'm fine with that).

[Frogsterking]

@frogster I don't know what OCEAN model is.

dubious personality model

openness to experience (inventive/curious vs. consistent/cautious)
conscientiousness (efficient/organized vs. extravagant/careless)
extraversion (outgoing/energetic vs. solitary/reserved)
agreeableness (friendly/compassionate vs. challenging/callous)
neuroticism (sensitive/nervous vs. resilient/confident)

It's not dubious it's the only personality model that has statistical evidence IN FAVOR of it rather than inconclusive or even AGAINST IT like many do.

[Frogsterking]

Also, my new FoS after reviewing the wagons yesterday was Nosferatu.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Nosferatu

[callforjudgement]

I'm interested in your reasoning behind that. What in the wagons pointed you to him?