Mini Normal 2163: MItGBSMoD [game over!]

[Ydrasse]

why didn't we elim plus yesterdayyyyyy my mind would be so much clearerrrrrrr.

[shellyc]

on kerset, i didn't want to go into detail but I think I have to:
they do seem nervous from their iso. But newbish scumtells are also newbie pr tells. They are most definitely either doctor or mafia. From mafia!kersets perspective, they haven't been putting much effort into solving I think and have been one of the quieter ones. That could be a doctor who is worried about being outed (I think is likely) or a scum player who doesn't wanna seem sus. If they are scum, then by crumbing a fake claim early they'd know they are under suspicion. But Saudade death tunneled kerset from the get go and gave them many chances to prove towniness by posting game stuff early on; kerset did not. Why would scum!Kerset crumb there, when they could likely have escaped suspicion early pretty easily by just acting townie instead? That's honestly not hard to do as scum or town, especially given Saudades low bar. That doesn't make sense to me at all why they would crumb and take a big risk as scum; hell their 2 scum buddies could have helped them by evening writing out towny things for Kerset to say if Kerset didn't know how to do it. That's the biggest flaw in the scum!kerset idea imo.

Instead Kerset just got more nervous and defensive. This attitude makes the most sense from doc!Kerset perspective, where they don't want to appear too towny so they become a maf target and die n1. The early hammer reaction looked realish but could be faked. Rather, they wanted to lay low, maybe even appear a little scummy so maf would leave them alone possibly (idk for sure), but Saudade wouldn't back off, and a wagon formed. Kerset showed more signs of being nervous which makes sense from town!Kerset perspective imo. If I was scum and knew Kerset wasn't, I'd let Kerset live n1 and then jump on them like crazy day 2 to get them mislimed, which we might see. I came to this conclusion pretty early after Kerset claimed doc, and wanted to see who would jump on to get a solid scumtell start of day 2.

tl;dr scum kerset mindset doesn't make sense and so they are very likely town imo.

I'm leaning Saudade kerset being tvt.

consider my eyebrow raised at this post in retrospect.

My progression on Kerset is solving, and this is lazily tvt binning
Can you see how scummy joyed is

[shellyc]

are y’all having that very insightful discussion in a secret hood and why is this game stalling out so much

I bet dead thread is more active than this thread now

[PlusJOYED]

are y’all having that very insightful discussion in a secret hood and why is this game stalling out so much

I bet dead thread is more active than this thread now

agreeeeeee
i also think we should elim me or shelly today
it's been more than 24 hours scum would have quickhammered 1 of us by now even if they are slow

i also find it very telling that andres expressed intent on going after shelly if osuka flipped green iirc

[PlusJOYED]

If Osuka flips Town nuke shellyc.

here

[Menalque]

we're obviously guillotining in you and shelly today because there's conf!scum in there

[Menalque]

sorry for delays, I started my masters course this week and it's been busy aside from that too

so, okay. math, before we go further, I need you to go a little further into the balance argument you were making? why do you think it should be clearing for you if I claim VT?

[Menalque]

also, I know that while I've been away the game has been delayed and I apologise because I'm gonna delay it a little more while I get a couple of answers out of math. I should have some more time tomorrow to pass back through a couple of the key moments in the game

[NDMath]

sorry for delays, I started my masters course this week and it's been busy aside from that too

so, okay. math, before we go further, I need you to go a little further into the balance argument you were making? why do you think it should be clearing for you if I claim VT?

*Context*

For the record: the balance standard in a 13-player Mini Normal is 3-4 moderately strong town PRs, against an all-goon scumteam or maybe 1 fairly weak scum PR.
The weaker the town, the weaker the scum must be to compensate for this; the stronger the town, the stronger the scum must be to compensate for this. And vice-versa, too:
The stronger the scum, the stronger the town must be to compensate for this; the weaker the scum, the weaker the town must be to compensate for this.

Reviewers keep in mind the strength of a role in their review. Cops, Watchers, and Jailkeepers tend to be some of the strongest town roles; Strongmen, Roleblockers, (situationally,) and Ninjas tend to be some of the strongest scum roles. These three roles aren't exclusively the "strongest of the strong", but are the three which immediately come to mind as topping the charts. (Town Rolestopper is probably also up there, too.)

{Trimmed}

We have a jailkeeper, an informed loyal cop, and a miller checker.
Jailkeeper is a strong role.
Loyal cop is a weaker version of a strong role, I'm assuming the informed modifier benefit can't be more than the benefit the mafia get from the rolestopper.
And miller Checker, which is a weak role.

I don't think those three roles can make up enough town power / would be too swingy if that's it. (However I am biased in that I know they don't.)

Not arguing it's fully clearing, just that it would be quite town indicative for me.

[Ydrasse]

just so i don't forget:

max 1 scum in (ydr, math, mena)
max 2 scum in (plus, shelly)

[Ydrasse]

meh
I think theres little way I can convince you guys at this point and I think town is gonna get stomped on lylo, I'm starting to feel defeated.
my obvtown reads think im scum (mena mainly)
I'm pretty confident me and osuka are both town, same with Andres and mena
if i flip today we enter lylo where andres votes osuka and scum quickhammer
if osuka flips today we enter lylo where mena votes me and scum quickhammers
I think we lose
on the bright side I've never been alive this long before

it's posts like these that make me think that plus is the correct vote for today.

i don't think that osuka was wrong inherently about shelly being scum but plus feels safer for me personally.

[shellyc]

can you talk me through why plus/me is s/s to you

anyways good job ydrasse for seeing the light, red joyed flip today, partner is in {math menal}

[Ydrasse]

you two have weird interactions.

who is plus's partner.

[shellyc]

iirc my trajectory on scum was townish -> null -> null scum -> TSTBS -> scum

I get that it’s a little weird but meh

betting math for now, menal is probtown, you’re probtown

[shellyc]

*my trajectory on plus

but plus is scum anyways

[shellyc]

Spoiler: big ugly quote wall on plus-kerset

Who loves readlists? I do!

kerset: Shitposter, which is NAI. My gut says they are town though but not a lot to go on; I feel like scum would be more self aware and worried about being SR'd from shitposting, and the mason thing might be a unique way of rvs 3 other players to see reactions. TR.

early TR on kerset for an RVS thing

His kerset attack seems really random and feels mildly scummy overall. SR.

potential chainsaw

bob (townie god) > shelly > ydrasse > andres > mena > suadade > kerset > teacher > osuka > IV (leaning more townie) >  NDMath > taylor (scum extraordinaire)

stuck in the middle

i don't wanna vote kerset his avi is cute

not wanting to vote kerset for some random reason

if kerset is red i think osuka is town
i don't see scum osuka not pursuing another wagon while his scum bud dies day 1
same for teacher but to a lesser extent

pocketing in case scum!kerset flips

sorry was inactive yesterday
im no handyman so installing washer and dryer was harder than i thought
i'd prefer a

taylor

elim over a

kerset

elim today

pivoting to town instead of scum

also called it on kerset being town ya nerds

pretty much joyed being confident that claimed PR scum mate is not getting flipped

don't throw kerset
this is tvt

TvT binning interaction with no reasons

btw full scum case on plus might come soon

[shellyc]

why didn't we elim plus yesterdayyyyyy my mind would be so much clearerrrrrrr.

waitttttt

didnt you want osuka’s head yesterday and was almost going to quickly hammer them

[Ydrasse]

grumble grumble...

i'll similarly vote for osuka if the consensus is that osuka is the better flip. plus just feels obvious after having sat here for an hour trying to not to bash my head into a wall.

[Ydrasse]

shelly, don’t tell me you’re scum missing things that are jokes.

[shellyc]

meh I took it seriously and I unvoted because I didnt want you to quickhammer that vote

anyways missing jokes is not AI at all

[shellyc]

kerset hasn't contributed too much but i very much like kerset's attitude/vibe this game too despite pushback from some ppl.

hmmmmm

why did you think kersets vibe was good this game and why does that overrule the lack of contribution

[shellyc]

Think my elimpool is still

IV/taylor

today.

this is obviously trying to shift off scumbuddy kerset in favour of town eliminations

currently rereading d1

[shellyc]

the miller claim and the aesthic claim change things. I think one of them is fake/evil most likely

*eyebrows raising*

why did you say that joyed?

[shellyc]

bob (townie god) > shelly > ydrasse > andres > mena > suadade > kerset > teacher > osuka > IV (leaning more townie) >  NDMath > taylor (scum extraordinaire)

hi plus did you townbin / try to pocket me for all of d1

[shellyc]

d1’s most important VC - when Taylor and kerset wagons split

Kerset

[4]:

Saudade

,

osuka

,

Andresvmb

, Ydrasse

Tayl0r Swift

[4]: shellyc, NDMath,

teacher

, PlusJOYED

innocentvillager

[2]:

Kerset

,

Tayl0r Swift

teacher

[1]:

innocentvillager

NDMath [1]:

bob3141

plusJOYED [1]: Menalque

from this I think all town voted ydrasse and ydrasse is town
menal on confscum!plus establishes menal as town as well
math/plus voting together could indicate partners tbh
I think it’s just math/plus here