Mini Theme 2164: Betrayal Mafia I (Game over!)

[lilith2013]

V OTECOUNT 2.017
P LAYER N AME	C URRENT V OTES		S TRENGTH	S PEED	K NOWLEDGE	P LAYER N AME
Gamma Emerald	Nosferatu	EL-6	3	2	4	Gamma Emerald
SirCakez	None	EL-7	2	3	3	SirCakez
CreativeMod1	None	EL-7	3	3	3	CreativeMod1
Albert B. Rampage	Fun and Games, Ydrasse, I Keep Siteflaking	EL-4	3	3	3	Albert B. Rampage
Pine	SirCakez, Gamma Emerald, JohnnyFarrar, CreativeMod1, Albert B. Rampage	EL-2	3	3	4	Pine
Bingle	None	EL-7	3	3	3	Bingle
Nosferatu	None	EL-7	3	3	4	Nosferatu
I Keep Siteflaking	None	EL-7	3	3	3	I Keep Siteflaking
PenguinPower	None	EL-7	3	3	3	PenguinPower
Fun and Games	None	EL-7	3	3	3	Fun and Games
Ydrasse	None	EL-7	3	3	3	Ydrasse
JohnnyFarrar	Bingle	EL-6	3	3	3	JohnnyFarrar
Not Voting	Pine, PenguinPower
With 12 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate. Deadline: (expired on 2020-10-11 20:28:04)
Notes: the real treasure was the pagetops I made along the way pagetops: Lilith 17 | penguin 9 | cm1 2 | ABR 2 | gamma 2 | johnnyf 2 | gb 1 | fun & games 1 | nosferatu 1

[Gamma Emerald]

I was also attacked by scum last night, so I’m more inclined to present any information I think is helpful now versus later.

how could both of us be attacked by scum lol?
VOTE: gamma

Hey so now that this has been effectively answered, you mind putting your vote somewhere useful?

[Bingle]

Bingle what do you think about ... well... anything? Is anyone scummy? Or town? You've posted a lot but I can't call anything you believe to mind

I firmly believe that Gamma is fakeclaiming (More on that later), but also that we can't afford to eliminate there at the moment in case I'm wrong. I think that the context of Gamma pushing Pine makes Pine a probable miselim, while I think Pine is pretty much pure null on his own merit. I do need to meta dive Pine to check Gamma's assertion that town Pine is more apologetic and dual-dive Gamma/Pine to see if it's likely Gamma believes that his assertion that town Pine is more apologetic to be true, but I've been busier than expected in meatworld and haven't done so yet.

You and skitts are roughly analogous in that I like the content you're putting out but don't necessarily townread you for it. I do think it's unlikely you're S/S though. I had a scumread on Cakez and Ydrasse yesterday, but it didn't keep strong vibes through the night and I haven't really had strong impressions from either of them. I'd still probably be down to wagon either. I think Nos, iks and Cmod are probably town in roughly that order of strength. I feel weirded out by ABR's lack of clear direction, but I ALSO lack clear direction this game so I'm left with the idea that it might not be an issue of his, but rather of the game itself.

That leaves me with a probable scum PoE of ABR, PP, You, F&G, Ydrasse, SC, but within that pool I'm more or less floundering on who I want to push.

[Gamma Emerald]

Firstly how and why do you think I'm fakeclaiming? That implies the role I am claiming is a lie, what evidence do you have to support that allegation? Second, why am I not in your scum PoE if you think I'm fakeclaiming? Even if you don't want to vote me out now I should still be in your scumpool.

[JohnnyFarrar]

So zero scumreads and POE make me nervous my guy. You understand my trepidation with IKS?

[Gamma Emerald]

Is that towards me? I recall also not feeling great about IKS but I don't recall those things you are talking about from him.

[Bingle]

1 I've already answered that I don't know because the mod won't tell me, it isn't part of the role info and when I asked I was told it was scum-exclusive information, which I already said, so don't get pissy when you are the one who missed my post.

I didn't miss that point. The thing I'm pointing out is that you're using an appeal to probability (which is itself a flawed argument) based on unknown probabilities to crusade for Pine's elimination. It's entirely possible, from my perspective, that scum need to roll a 2 to activate a lab. It's entirely possible that scum need to roll a 6 to activate a lab. I don't think either of those are likely to be the case, but they're both possible. If the doctors need to roll a 3 to activate a lab, and have a knowledge of three, they succeed roughly 60% of the time with a knowledge of 3. Given a presumptive three scum, if two of them attempted to activate labs last night then they would have had a greater than 1/4 chance to succeed twice. If the target number is 4, they had a roughly 1/8 chance. The thing is that we really have no idea if either of those is the case. The entire case is based on probabilities I don't know, and can't know. Your presentation of it as a consensus scumread vote and then backtrack to a "it's mechanical" and then addendum of "it's also meta" is what gives me so many bad feelings about the push though.

4 I wanted more knowledge before I did that, so I explored in hopes of boosting my knowledge though some method. My ability to destroy labs outside of the speed stat isn't an infinite use action, there's a cap on it.

Yeah...

Gamma has claimed, in short, the following components to his role:

He can attempt to destroy labs in addition to other actions during the night.
He can virtually guarantee the ability to destroy labs a limited number of times.
He needs knowledge to use his power.
He did not attempt to destroy a lab on N0 or N1.
His ability explicitly functions differently for scum, implying it wouldn't necessarily go to town and thus that there is a smalltown element to the role assignment or something like a role thief that could steal a townsperson's role.

Each of these, individually, has an explanation. Cumulatively, they really don't.

Not acting on N0 or N1 implies that his free action ability is limited shot. That makes sense. However, he's also claimed that the ability to guarantee a lab's destruction is ALSO limited shot, which implies that for a certain number of nights Gamma can blow up a lab without a roll or action. Fine and dandy, I suppose. But why would he need knowledge at that point? If his ability to free action destroy a lab has no shot restriction, then there was no downside to attempting to destroy a lab on N0 and attempting to destroy a lab on N1, which he has claimed he didn't do. If his ability to free action destroy a lab has the same shot restriction as his ability to outright destroy a lab without rolling, he has no particular need for knowledge.

The only way all of his claims add up is as such: Gamma is claiming an X-shot autodestroying Y-shot actionless lab destroyer. Let's compare that claim to what's else has been claimed.

ABR is claiming something along the lines of damage multiplier.
Nos is reflexive stat setter.
CMod is a proven stat healer (who is claimed as one shot).
Ydrasse can attack an extra time at night.
JF gave +1 knowledge once.
I heal once per cycle when freely given an item.

Notice a difference between those claims? Cause there's one that doesn't seem to fit in with the rest.

[Bingle]

You understand my trepidation with IKS?

I understand that you have trepidation, but I don't really share it. I think the logic of 'if we all attack x, x will surely die, so we should use our attacks to make this a double day setup' is a fairly town approach to a complicated setup like this.

[Gamma Emerald]

Bingle on Day 3 I think some of the problems you're seeing with my role will be resolved.

[Bingle]

why am I not in your scum PoE

You're not in the group of people I'm interested in pursuing for elimination atm because I'm not interested in eliminating you atm.

Seems pretty self explanatory to me.

[Gamma Emerald]

I didn't miss that point. The thing I'm pointing out is that you're using an appeal to probability (which is itself a flawed argument) based on unknown probabilities to crusade for Pine's elimination. It's entirely possible, from my perspective, that scum need to roll a 2 to activate a lab. It's entirely possible that scum need to roll a 6 to activate a lab. I don't think either of those are likely to be the case, but they're both possible. If the doctors need to roll a 3 to activate a lab, and have a knowledge of three, they succeed roughly 60% of the time with a knowledge of 3. Given a presumptive three scum, if two of them attempted to activate labs last night then they would have had a greater than 1/4 chance to succeed twice. If the target number is 4, they had a roughly 1/8 chance. The thing is that we really have no idea if either of those is the case. The entire case is based on probabilities I don't know, and can't know. Your presentation of it as a consensus scumread vote and then backtrack to a "it's mechanical" and then addendum of "it's also meta" is what gives me so many bad feelings about the push though.

3 is kinda my guess but a part of me interprets the part about labs being able to be destroyed after being activated as potentially meaning something even if the plain text doesn't suggest anything. I think scum need a 4 or 5 to activate, and out of those I'd predict 5 over 4 because it create a sorta pattern. But two activating in one night makes me think there's the chance Pine used that extra knowledge to get another lab activated with good odds. It's speculative yes but Pine just generally hasn't contributed, and it's more like how he fail to contribute as scum vs. as town. Look at what Pine is specifically like when he is inactive in those games I cited. There's a clear difference.
PEdit: I acknowledged that but you should have labeled that set of people differently, then.

[Bingle]

Bingle on Day 3 I think some of the problems you're seeing with my role will be resolved.

I literally prefaced that whole wall with "I don't think we can afford to eliminate Gamma today".

With that said, while I do have all of those issues, I don't think that you trying to explain them is a good idea at the moment for roughly the same reason as I don't think that eliminating you is a good idea, and I do see you leveraging your claim into wanting extra resources, such as the knowledge I told JF to give to Nos and control over the elimination today. I am more than happy to be proven wrong if I'm wrong, but for now I trust you roughly as far as I can throw you, and I 100% want to hedge my bets so that we benefit if I'm wrong or if I'm right. So, we spread the knowledge out to two different players so that both of them can break labs. Nos is likely town who also is likely to survive without losing knowledge.

[SirCakez]

Bingle what do you think about ... well... anything? Is anyone scummy? Or town? You've posted a lot but I can't call anything you believe to mind

I firmly believe that Gamma is fakeclaiming (More on that later), but also that we can't afford to eliminate there at the moment in case I'm wrong. I think that the context of Gamma pushing Pine makes Pine a probable miselim, while I think Pine is pretty much pure null on his own merit. I do need to meta dive Pine to check Gamma's assertion that town Pine is more apologetic and dual-dive Gamma/Pine to see if it's likely Gamma believes that his assertion that town Pine is more apologetic to be true, but I've been busier than expected in meatworld and haven't done so yet.

You and skitts are roughly analogous in that I like the content you're putting out but don't necessarily townread you for it. I do think it's unlikely you're S/S though. I had a scumread on Cakez and Ydrasse yesterday, but it didn't keep strong vibes through the night and I haven't really had strong impressions from either of them. I'd still probably be down to wagon either. I think Nos, iks and Cmod are probably town in roughly that order of strength. I feel weirded out by ABR's lack of clear direction, but I ALSO lack clear direction this game so I'm left with the idea that it might not be an issue of his, but rather of the game itself.

That leaves me with a probable scum PoE of ABR, PP, You, F&G, Ydrasse, SC, but within that pool I'm more or less floundering on who I want to push.

This is not inspiring any confidence from me towards your slot

[Gamma Emerald]

Bingle on Day 3 I think some of the problems you're seeing with my role will be resolved.

I literally prefaced that whole wall with "I don't think we can afford to eliminate Gamma today".

With that said, while I do have all of those issues, I don't think that you trying to explain them is a good idea at the moment for roughly the same reason as I don't think that eliminating you is a good idea, and I do see you leveraging your claim into wanting extra resources, such as the knowledge I told JF to give to Nos and control over the elimination today. I am more than happy to be proven wrong if I'm wrong, but for now I trust you roughly as far as I can throw you, and I 100% want to hedge my bets so that we benefit if I'm wrong or if I'm right. So, we spread the knowledge out to two different players so that both of them can break labs. Nos is likely town who also is likely to survive without losing knowledge.

Fair enough.

[Bingle]

This is not inspiring any confidence from me towards your slot

Okay?

It wasn't a post designed to get me townreads. It was a post designed to show where I'm at wrt the thread. I'm more than capable of manipulating my way into being townread (as both alignments) but I frankly don't need to here. It's not really a secret that I don't particularly care what people's reads on me are until the endgame.

[JohnnyFarrar]

I was that arrogant once upon a time

I completely understand the mechanic heavy nature of discussion, I'm beginning to think this game CAN be solved mechanically without scum hunting at all. But like, actually taking the plunge and just not having any scum reads is... disconcerting

[Nosferatu]

I was also attacked by scum last night, so I’m more inclined to present any information I think is helpful now versus later.

how could both of us be attacked by scum lol?
VOTE: gamma

Hey so now that this has been effectively answered, you mind putting your vote somewhere useful?

i really have not been paying attention and am kinda just waiting for end of day phase, abr is a vig and what is pine??

[Gamma Emerald]

we don't know what Pine is for sure, it's all speculation, but he's also been inactive and unhelpful. Why is that the question you ask?

[Albert B. Rampage]

mod: can we replace Pine? We've had no activity for 96 hours

[Albert B. Rampage]

VOTE: creativemod

[Albert B. Rampage]

I discarded creative mod for the pigeon thing and then sort of forgot about him but his posts don't inspire me as much after I look at them.

[Gamma Emerald]

He's almost certainly town between night actions and what he's done this day phase

[Albert B. Rampage]

No?

[Gamma Emerald]

Like we already determined the way CMod claimed his night action was likely town, no? In addition to that, he's done something this day phase that would be very foolish for scum to do.

[Albert B. Rampage]

You are thinking like this is a normal game.

Scum only need 1 scum in this game. With 4 labs, they endgame 4 players if the godfather is alive.