Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Krazy]

also did you ever answer why Tanner gives us a free misfight and immediately points it out, again is that supposed to net him two misfights or what? Sorry if you have and I missed it

no, I typed up a post kinda exploring different possibilities but realized it was going in circles so deleted it. Basically I don't know. I don't know why scum didn't no kill, I don't know why scum gave us an extra day and an extra fight. But given that I simply have no baseline for scum motivation there I kinda just want to call it a wash. I don't really give him towncred for pointing out something that gives me no actual information about who the scum is.

Again, it's hard not to admit that a lot of my issue with his slot is pure omgus. I feel like anyone who has played with me as scum knows that I loathe playing scum and would never, ever prolong a game, so him still pushing me despite that makes me feel like he could have *a non-town agenda* somehow in doing so, but he could simply be lost and biting at his reads from earlier in the game.

Still I'm bullheaded enough to keep calling him scum even if I don't really get why he's playing the way he is if he is scum

[Morning Tweet]

Krazy is obvtowning there's like one viable fight left and it's Pooky

Tanner already mentioned this but i'd also love if you could point at Krazy obvtowning.

shiiiit I'd probably just point at his entire D3 and be like "look! he's gotta be town!"

I'll get to this tomorrow hopefully

So lemme see.. gotta explain why Tanner is town better, gotta explain why Krazy is town better.. am i missing anybody?

[Krazy]

it more comes off as a difference in mood. This game has been a struggle to effort in at certain times and it feels like Tanner got hit by that on occasion.

I dont know. I feel like Tanners desire to play has been dying at certain points and I think it's enough to throw off meta.

ok fair. But if datisi is simply conventionally polarized and doesn't particularly like playing scum, why would a difference in mood pointing to waning interest not be scum indicative? I feel like that's the specific change in mood that is most often scum indicative?

[Morning Tweet]

shiiiit I'd probably just point at his entire D3 and be like "look! he's gotta be town!"

To clarify what I mean here-- i just started hard townreading Krazy so it's on me to actually explain it but its just catalogued in my mind as "he's obvtowning". i dont mean "Its so obvious how can you not see it??"

[Morning Tweet]

it more comes off as a difference in mood. This game has been a struggle to effort in at certain times and it feels like Tanner got hit by that on occasion.

I dont know. I feel like Tanners desire to play has been dying at certain points and I think it's enough to throw off meta.

ok fair. But if datisi is simply conventionally polarized and doesn't particularly like playing scum, why would a difference in mood pointing to waning interest not be scum indicative? I feel like that's the specific change in mood that is most often scum indicative?

i dont think he's offput by his role, I think he's more likely to be offput by the thread-- the game itself, which is largely independent of his role. That's why I call it NAI and might be the best I can explain that

[Morning Tweet]

eeeeeeEEEee I mean the game as it is happening to Tanner, I know you're gonna say "Well Tanners contributions to the thread are influenced by his role" and ik that.

Can't I just say the disinterest is nai

About stuff I do think is AI. Tanners puppy suspicion start of D2. I should look more at that

[Krazy]

While I do still plan to write a wall to map out my thoughts on Tanner, I guess I'm not seeing what you find as strongly town indicative off this progression

also i had a thought that elements was bussed and that scum was gonna try to get themselves spared off of towncred, and for puppy to enter the game going for spares... yay paranoia.

i'm pretty sure 4 fights are optimal in every single scenario now. day 2 is definitely a fight day to either win or get Not Chara flipped. since the "if mafia is spared, they win if both of them survive Day 5" clause in 1-3 is now pointless, sparing on day 3/4 is just setting off those executes for later... while losing 2 public cops. i can crunch the numbers later if anyone is that interested in it, but i'm pretty sure fighting is the way.

This wouldn't really make sense though, your argument would be that 4 fights is obviously objectively correct, also scum bussed for credit so they could play better in an inferior position. Why would scum bus at all?

I think it's more realistic that scum didn't bus, or at least didn't push the wagon until it was too late. In that case, sparing is a decent move because we'd save two townreads and still get a copcheck for it. 2 + 1 > > 2

yes, i realized it wouldn't make sense because "wait a minute, fighting is clearly optimal, nobody is gonna enter day 2 asking for spares!"

...except then you did exactly that.

i am 99.99% sure that genocide is the superior option as i was thinking about it earlier but now it's past midnight and my math brain is closed.

here's my spicy take of the night.

HURT: puppy

puppy's interactions with ele *are* decent from what i remember. i'd have to give them a reread and/or chat with puppy a bit more today.

What do you want to talk about

Ele had a weird push on me that felt forced, chara made a good point about him, I pushed and then he subbed out. I actually feel lucky more than anything, but there's still no way his partners wanted that bus to go through

i don't know what i want to talk about. something that makes me think you're not trying to murder us all, because at this point i'm sounding insane to myself. i guess a good start would be who you're willing to fight today and what is actually your read on me?

I don't know how to describe it, but it feels like he comes up with an idea of what he wants to do about the slot then changes his mind a few posts later in a way that feels more forced than natural.

I guess stuff like "at this point i'm sounding insane to myself" and then asking about his read on himself feels like he's giving himself to back off Puppy in a way, or not push it too hard.

I guess partly it bothers me just a bit that there's a 300 post gap between announcing his spicy take and really continuing on it, he kinda gets more into the rest of the game first. Maybe my tired brain missed something though

Like, putting Tanner aside, if you're scum and know a buddy is poisoned and is going to flip no matter what that night, then I can definitely see a world where you begin the day pushing the poisoned buddy while planning to back off or let the rest of the game go in other directions so that you don't actually bus but still get the towncred for the push, i.e. classic distancing

so the question is where does classical distancing end and a town-indicative scum push begin? Well I guess, having forgotten his iso, we could posit a theorem:
if after this, he gives himself more room to back off, it could be scummy
but if he took strong conviction and tried to build a wagon, it'd be townie

now, if we look at the next post:

who would you like to f i g h t ?
also i'm not trying to make you scumread me, i'm triyng to sort you by seeing what your read on me is or something like that

this would seem to fit 'model 1' i.e. distancing

like it almost feels like purposefully playing dumb?? i dunno???

but suji slot seemed so like scum, but i don't think they're partnered with puppy???? help

and of course, knowing now that puppy is scum and that I'm town and tanner is still pushing me, this a) really bothers me and b) makes me wonder what happened to this reasoning today

this... is not my wallpost btw. although it is kinda wallposty. okay whatever I'm going to sleep lol

[Chara]

Also, do you mind why explaining Tweet being town to you? Is it primarily for the vote, or is there something else about their play that is meaning you aren't as nervous around the slot as Pooky/Hectic?

the vote strengthened what was already a strong townread.
this sounds a little silly to explain, but a slot that's been very towny to me and has not fostered any suspicion on either how they're posting or what they're pushing, for the entire game, is almost always just town.

...Welcome back, by the way.

thanks.

[Chara]

It's kind of hard for me to see if I addressed each part of Hectic's case against me adequately so if a neutral observer could let me know if something is lacking I can address your concerns.

I'd like to avoid repeating too much into the thread.

i'm just coming around to thinking Pooky is town after all and then he makes posts like this that make me squirm.

This interests me a bit.

Earlier in the game this time of language seemed to be +town to you. I'm referring here to 1335, which comments on the intro of 610. Do you think the language/style is different, that one is contextually good the other bad, that your own reaction has changed over time, or maybe something else?

the style looks similar, Pooky's been presenting himself for most of the game in this way, you're right.
i think it's my perception that's changed. it's sort of like how i was +town on Puppy early on for his giving me credit for the Elements push, but when he kept doing it it started to feel excessive.
ignore for the purposes of the example that i went back to hard townreading Puppy for the Elements push.

i'm usually inclined to read this more measured response (Pooky's style this game) as being more likely scum. being understanding is good and fine, but the way he is so comfortable asking for and also acknowledging unbiased/third party stances again and again isn't sitting well with me.
in a way it reminds me of what i'd hoped was a way to find scum Hectic, when i noticed he was being very agreeable and lacked a combative attitude.

i think i mentioned this when you talked about Pooky's catboi case the first time. i disagreed with your take that it was... i forget the wording but something like aggressive or unfair, because Pooky seemed to be taking a tonal approach that lacked teeth, even if the case itself was lengthy. but i think we were looking at different things, there, and now i'm more inclined to think that toothlessness could be an indicator for scum-Pooky too.

i'm just not totally convinced.

[Chara]

Pooky > Krazy > Hectic

I'd be ok with that chain as long as we sub your slot in for Krazy.

I think if we elim all three of Pooky/Chara/Hectic we probably win the game.

you want me to be eliminated before Hectic? why?

[Chara]

i'm just coming around to thinking Pooky is town after all and then he makes posts like this that make me squirm.

The game was slow, it was just me and hectic posting for quite a bit.

It's kind of weird to talk to someone about their case on you without any feedback from the audience. I'd rather not drown the thread in Hectic-vs-Pooky and nobody feels like playing the game.

i can understand that, wanting commentary from others. i did expect to see more pages given my extended absence and was surprised to find that wasn't the case.

[Chara]

eeeeeeEEEee I mean the game as it is happening to Tanner, I know you're gonna say "Well Tanners contributions to the thread are influenced by his role" and ik that.

Can't I just say the disinterest is nai

About stuff I do think is AI. Tanners puppy suspicion start of D2. I should look more at that

i'm a big proponent of most "mood changes" between games being wholly NAI. for example, someone who tracked that sort of thing and knew being mafia stressed me out would conclude i'm scum this game because of my absences from the thread.

i can sympathize with Krazy's opinion that Tanner's suspicion of him is... suspicious, but it also feels like something of a case of BoP. it's always easier to know how

you

would react to a situation and to expect someone who knows you well should know that too.

[Chara]

i have zero desire to eliminate Krazy and i don't know what to do with that.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Ok I re-read the rules on the first page again to try to figure out why the bad guy decided to nokill and my conclusion is...

I just don't get it.

If we go the 0-spare genocide route.



Worst case scenario: We miss today, mafia kills somebody, we miss again on D4.

That brings us to the route bonus, 5 alive and Mafia investigates 2 people as town. Then there are three people in the POE and we get to elim 2 of them - > the only way we lose is if mafia is the last person left over.

Our odds for winning this are really really good ! :3

[Chara]

and now you see why genocide is superior!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you want me to be eliminated before Hectic? why?

The order of the eliminations doesn't matter a lot to me, but if I thought about it I think I'd like to give Hectic as much time as possible to find the bad guy because I have a lot of faith in him - that might not be fair to you but I've played more with him than you and he feels more active in the scumhunting.

[Chara]

would your opinion change if i told you miseliminating me is extremely unlikely to happen?
if i'm scum, you have a great shot, though. :>

i can agree that Hectic this game and currently has been actively scumhunting more than i have.
this is such a sweet answer, though. i don't find your Hectic loveposts to be very convincing at all, but posts like this ring so honest. it's rather frustrating.

[Chara]

3331 feels like the devil holding out his hand to me and telling me everything's going to be alright.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

would your opinion change if i told you miseliminating me is extremely unlikely to happen?


would your opinion change if i told you miseliminating me is extremely unlikely to happen?

That's why I put you in the list, because if anyone would think they were going to win this game as scum it'd be either you or hectic. somebody else holding a scum card probably would've folded by now.

[Lavender]

|.o)

[Prism]

But given that I simply have no baseline for scum motivation there I kinda just want to call it a wash. I don't really give him towncred for pointing out something that gives me no actual information about who the scum is.

I feel like the standard here-"Actual information about who scum is"-is a bit too high. Negative deductions are really powerful things. He's given you very valuable information: More than anyone else, he understood that no killing is a free misfight. This gives you information about who it is

probably not

, unless again he decided that he could get two+ misfights off of this point.

Again, it's hard not to admit that a lot of my issue with his slot is pure omgus. I feel like anyone who has played with me as scum knows that

I loathe playing scum and would never, ever prolong a game,

so him still pushing me despite that makes me feel like he could have *a non-town agenda* somehow in doing so, but he could simply be lost and biting at his reads from earlier in the game.

Still I'm bullheaded enough to keep calling him scum even if I don't really get why he's playing the way he is if he is scum

I don't like that you're treating this as though the game were already lost if you were scum. Puppy was in a great position and you had a locktown slot whiteknighting you. Your odds aren't great but there's a clear path to winning. Are you suggesting you would replace in only to instantly concede?

[Prism]

i think i mentioned this when you talked about Pooky's catboi case the first time. i disagreed with your take that it was... i forget the wording but something like aggressive or unfair, because Pooky seemed to be taking a tonal approach that lacked teeth, even if the case itself was lengthy. but i think we were looking at different things, there, and now i'm more inclined to think that toothlessness could be an indicator for scum-Pooky too.

The difference there seemed to be that you found Pooky's post charitable to catboi. Whether that was just for the opening or the post as a whole, I'm not sure. For my part, I found that the opening was verbally/performatively charitable but the case was not at all-the case always assumed the worst, at times extremely so. This mismatch made the opener sound performative to me.

For my part, I'm beginning to think it's very playstyle-centered and not that inherently indicative of Pookyscum/town. I suspect the mismatch might be more indicative, though.

[Prism]

So I don't see how he can conclude that I am going after him for suspecting me when the actual timeline of events of D2 were that he concluded that I was "an innocent child" and I was the one who was pushing on him.

I think it's clear, with the further posts given by Hectic, that you had reasons to be town but weren't locked in as such. Skimming his ISO this is also clear in posts like 1601. 1868 clearly speculates you as non-Chara scum. These are all well before 2334, the post you first cite here and elsewhere that I can see.

If I'm scum why would I initiate a push on Hectic who is very hard to remove when he's already town slotting me? It's not like we didn't have a number of easier pushes at the time.

I feel like this question answers itself. You clearly have a lot of faith-or a lot of fear-of Hectic's ability to scumhunt. While a nightkill is one low-risk way to remove him, a push is a valid but slightly riskier one. In a game in which you need to get 4 townfights, though, you need to take risks, and you might even feel

obligated

to suspect him lest your lack of it in itself be suspicious.

I concur with Hectic's 3237, in that I also found your push on Ele strangely strong at the time it happened. I also agree with Morning's 3255, in that Hectic actually opened the day going through a variety of scumreads-me and Tanner, for example-but perhaps his progression on Puppy specifically does need a closer look.

The rest of the posts here all seem to be focusing again on the timeline, which I've addressed here. I think Hectic's progression on you lines up pretty well, regardless of whether or not you're actually an opportunistic scum.

[Hectic]

Ok I re-read the rules on the first page again to try to figure out why the bad guy decided to nokill and my conclusion is...

I just don't get it.

If we go the 0-spare genocide route.



Worst case scenario: We miss today, mafia kills somebody, we miss again on D4.

That brings us to the route bonus, 5 alive and Mafia investigates 2 people as town. Then there are three people in the POE and we get to elim 2 of them - > the only way we lose is if mafia is the last person left over.

Our odds for winning this are really really good ! :3

Why would you do that to yourself if you still have so much fight left in you??

|.o)

Hum.

[Prism]

I'm not really sure what my PoE is at this point.

I have Chara/Krazy/Tanner town. I really don't want to revisit either of these. If I revisit Chara at all it's just going to be to explain why I think they're town. I refuse to read this ISO and drive myself insane again before ExLo. I really have a lot of confidence in my redtea read, too, and I have zero clue how to read Krazy. His reads this game (Tanner tunnel) are kind of bonkers but I'm going to trust my redtea read. If Tanner is scum I'm not even going to clap for him, I'm going to be angry that he played to extend the game for zero reason instead of just winning.

I have Hectic/Morning as probably town. I still hate Hectic's Day 1, and hate how backwards he's worked at points (Suji-flake meta to justify the Suji tunnel). His progression on me is still trash. But I don't think he plays that Day 2 like that-so set on redtea, so unwilling on others, and mostly disinterested-given that he/his partner weren't actually in danger at all. He can afford to play patient. Morning is Morning. I wish I remembered why this slot was town. Always good+believable reads. Yeah. That's about it.

That leaves Lavender/Pooky. Between the two...I think it would be Pooky. Lavender has a chance but I have still felt votes have made this slot town all game long and, even if as scum they might not have realized they shouldn't have showed up at the last second...I think the fact that they showed up is town. The fact that Puppy instantly started talking again after going AWOL the previous hour suggests that Puppy saw the day was getting hammered.

Okay, working through this wasn't as bad as I thought. As it stands I want Pooky.

What should my projects be? I think rereading Pooky and establishing that he isn't obvtown should be #1. I think confirming Hectic as town should be #2. I think Morning/Lavender rereads should be #3. Am I missing anything? With respect to Krazy/Tanner...Sorry but that's at the bottom for me.