In post 9, Isis wrote:but at the same time
"it makes essentially no sense to have bussed as vengeful chara"
I have to agree with that being a weak play that reduces my sympathy towards the scumteam
it was a bad decision. i thought it was a good play for the associations it'd produce and the fact that it was obviously a play no one would consider. i didn't expect my whole team to lurk out on me. but it's ultimately my mistake, doesn't matter how town read i am if i screw up the basic strategy like that.
Definitely threw me for a loop, I think elements might have ended up as the default vote anyway so it wasn't necessarily terrible to do it just so you didn't get voted out day 2.
At least now I know the tell I had on you day 1 is still undefeated~
Spare is mechanically near-useleas now, because town can only go toward neutral path. spared players won't produce any clears b/c the autowin condition can't apply since there is only 1 scum left. practical effect of sparing is to reduce the number of cop.checks mafia has to perform. Those spared players will all get dumped back into the thread anyways w/o really affecting kills
Game is probably lost anyways, I don't think I could have made enough wifom for the last scum to survive basically 6 fights needed here, but town may consider how much my end of day was scripted and with who
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
Not killing here seems a pretty big tactical blunder - technically, the optimal move is then to no-kill
again
because it means you can have 3 uncleared on the final day, rather than 2...but I don't think the % boost of having 3 uncleared on the final day is worth the added difficulty of gifting town an extra elimination. I think it was always going to be an uphill battle, because going for the timeout victory, while gutsy, left a ton of obvtown as a result and it's going to be really hard to work around that.
Okay, I crunched the numbers...purely on raw math, it's a very slight +EV move for mafia...you go from 34.3% EV to 37.5% EV...HOWEVER, that's assuming random eliminations, and I think given the info available ingame, town is likely to be well above random. You can clear practically half the game and mafia only gets to kill one town instead of two. Don't love the play.
Night 4 gets skipped, so if everyone always killed you'd have at daystart: 12 -> 10 -> 8 -. 6 -> 5. 5 on day 4 with 2 town being cleared because how genocide plays out. With one no kill, you get 6 on day 4 with only 2 clears, which is much better than 2/5. town doesn't get an extra fight for it
game state wise, i think i would have pushed the no kill back to night 3, i think it would have been better to take a little control and not spill the no kill just yet.
i also made the decision that a shot at autowin was better than playing the game out to conclusion, which seemed an almost certain loss anyways. if isis hadn't been so quick on locking the thread there were ways i could have implicated whoever was going to hammer
In post 36, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Night 4 gets skipped, so if everyone always killed you'd have at daystart: 12 -> 10 -> 8 -. 6 -> 5. 5 on day 4 with 2 town being cleared because how genocide plays out. With one no kill, you get 6 on day 4 with only 2 clears, which is much better than 2/5. town doesn't get an extra fight for it
game state wise, i think i would have pushed the no kill back to night 3, i think it would have been better to take a little control and not spill the no kill just yet.
i also made the decision that a shot at autowin was better than playing the game out to conclusion, which seemed an almost certain loss anyways. if isis hadn't been so quick on locking the thread there were ways i could have implicated whoever was going to hammer
or, at least, added more wifom so the hammer didn't seemingly spew clears
In post 36, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Night 4 gets skipped, so if everyone always killed you'd have at daystart: 12 -> 10 -> 8 -. 6 -> 5. 5 on day 4 with 2 town being cleared because how genocide plays out. With one no kill, you get 6 on day 4 with only 2 clears, which is much better than 2/5. town doesn't get an extra fight for it
game state wise, i think i would have pushed the no kill back to night 3, i think it would have been better to take a little control and not spill the no kill just yet.
i also made the decision that a shot at autowin was better than playing the game out to conclusion, which seemed an almost certain loss anyways. if isis hadn't been so quick on locking the thread there were ways i could have implicated whoever was going to hammer
You're missing that you die, though - the no-kill put them at 8 alive right now, if he'd killed it'd have gone to 7. The way things played out it would have gone 12 -> 10 -> 7 -> 5 -> 4, with 2 cleared on day 5. Takes away an extra elimination.
and yeah, I don't blame you for going for the bold play at all, respect the hell out of going all-in, tbh. Just saying that the nokill might not be advantageous regardless of the numbers behind it.
still think scum loses, the hole were in is too deep. but if there were a scum path to win, i think it'd look like this:
1) waste a few days on vanity fights that don't advance game state
2) after a few bad fights, town gets super paranoid and starts lynching obvtown slots
3) scum makes it to lylo and plays well
1) is looking pretty good right now. think I played poorly overall, but I feel good about the way my interactions stirred up town enough today. since ISIS hasn't spoiled I won't ekther, but I feel like most of what they're reading from my ISO is what I wanted them to read (Irving Goffman, front stage back stage)
2) is probably unlikely, but the only way past this step is if the cop-check mechanic doesn't put town on or close to autowin. that means no kills so the fight pool is bigger. town needs to go full paranoia to lose here, and the paranoia play is always to keep alive towns strongest townreads (strong town players often turn on each other, and are so used to being killed that they often make mistakes when allowed to live)
Theast scum shouldn't make it to 3) just on odds alone. but I think the last scum is playing well enough rn to at least give it a shot
this game was probably always a town win the moment scum flipped day 1, we can figure out whether because scum went inactive or because I bussed too aggressively and it's my fault. its probably my fault. but this has been a pretty fun town and a pretty fun game overall, which makes it more interesting to game out the scum path to victory even though we should lose this 9/10 times at least
Otoh I feel bad about screwing the pooch on this game and want it to be over so my folly can be over and we can all move on
Otoh a scum win would be the coolest most improbable come from behind victory and it's fun to imagine one the longer the game goes on. sorry I left it for the last scum to work through lmao
In post 3373, Prism wrote:ie. what instinctively points you toward him? I know that you work a lot off of current feeling/intuition, no need to go digging through the archives unless you want to for some reason
what the hell you're so sweet and understanding this is why i fell for you
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
Man I was always a big Chara fan but it used the adjective meaning of "pedestrian", one of my favorite words.
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
In post 40, CantHateAPuppy wrote:still think scum loses, the hole were in is too deep. but if there were a scum path to win, i think it'd look like this:
1) waste a few days on vanity fights that don't advance game state
2) after a few bad fights, town gets super paranoid and starts lynching obvtown slots
3) scum makes it to lylo and plays well
1) is looking pretty good right now. think I played poorly overall, but I feel good about the way my interactions stirred up town enough today. since ISIS hasn't spoiled I won't ekther, but I feel like most of what they're reading from my ISO is what I wanted them to read (Irving Goffman, front stage back stage)
2) is probably unlikely, but the only way past this step is if the cop-check mechanic doesn't put town on or close to autowin. that means no kills so the fight pool is bigger. town needs to go full paranoia to lose here, and the paranoia play is always to keep alive towns strongest townreads (strong town players often turn on each other, and are so used to being killed that they often make mistakes when allowed to live)
Theast scum shouldn't make it to 3) just on odds alone. but I think the last scum is playing well enough rn to at least give it a shot
this game was probably always a town win the moment scum flipped day 1, we can figure out whether because scum went inactive or because I bussed too aggressively and it's my fault. its probably my fault. but this has been a pretty fun town and a pretty fun game overall, which makes it more interesting to game out the scum path to victory even though we should lose this 9/10 times at least
Well I've kind of figured it out contextually anyway, but yeah. Things might be more iffy than I thought, eventually they have to start ruling out certain players who they've previously towncleared and that's when things have the potential to get goofy. Qith the cop check the move is to clear people who aren't ever going to get fought but aren't a threat readswise. There's a couple people that could fit that bill.
town's current strategy of reading the ele/beeboy wagon is better than their last one of trying to figure out who i was sliming by association, if they just follow that strat and don't get paranoid town should win in about 3 fights without trying
game will probably get to the cop check stage the way it's going, but i would be surprised if scum got much farther. a scum win would take scum playing well (which is happening) and town making big mistakes (probably not)
right now i think the play would be to cop clear the most suspicious players, and get town really paranoid so they have to re-evaluate some clears and would make those mistakes.. but it could change depending on who makes it that far and how. i could give more thoughts whenever isis decides to spoil the thread
gotta say it's immense fun just watching people spec on my motivations for different posts, 95% wrong, the most right guess was some of the spec about why i "had" to bus beeboy day 1. almost everything else was just deliberately sliming some associations to make people paranoid. dont think it changes the game outcome, but its gratifying on a personal level
idk I will prolly go on a two week cross-country excursion singing Chara's praises no matter what Krazy flips
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
