Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 4.6

geraintm(2)

~ Titus(36), WaltertheDunce10(13)

Frogsterking(2)

~ callforjudgement(42), Looker(13)

Nosferatu(1)

~ Frogsterking(63)


Not Voting (2): geraintm(9), Nosferatu(13)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-16 00:31:59)

FLAVOR

[Titus]

@CFD, why don't you join the two conftown on geratim and block Frogster if it fails?

[Nosferatu]

VOTE: geraintm

[callforjudgement]

@CFD, why don't you join the two conftown on geratim and block Frogster if it fails?

First, just to make sure there's no doubt about my night action:

Tonight, unless I post a different plan later toDay, I will use my Alien action on geraintm if he is alive, or on Frogsterking if geraintm was eliminated.

My main motivation for eliminating Frogster and effectively investigating geraintm, rather than the other way round, is that if the investigated player is not scum, they end up confirmed town. I fear that Frogster's reads are really bad; he's spent much of the game tunnelling me, often for reasons which are really dubious. (See #1364 as an example: geraintm had made a hypothetical read based on Walter being town, I disagreed with the read because I didn't think that assuming Walter as town would lead to that conclusion, Frogster decides that, because I scumread Walter and am trying to follow a hypothetical in which Walter is town, this must be evidence that I have secret knowledge that Walter is town and therefore I must be scum.) I was torn between using my Alien action on Titus and on Frogster last Night, but decided on Titus because scum will have to carry one confirmed player to endgame, and I didn't want it to be Frogster.

Another motivation has come up recently, though. There are five unconfirmed slots (Frogster, geraintm, Looker, Nosferatu, me). We can only check/flip four of them. I would like to check/flip, at the minimum, Frogster and Looker (I townread both geraintm and Nosferatu). I'm happy to add one of my townreads (i.e. two including me) into the pool of players we check, because we have four attempts to find scum; I thought that Nosferatu was a universal townread. Now that Frogster is seriously questioning Nosferatu's alignment, though, there seems to be doubt about which of the five slots should be left alive, and we may well need more debate about this so that we don't end up losing the game later. (Additionally, if we don't hit scum toDay or toNight, the game will end up in a 2:1 ending with one player confirmed; if Looker is scum, all he'd need to do to win if Frogster is confirmed is to aim for an ending of Looker/Frogster/Nosferatu and let Frogster pick incorrectly in the 2:1. Eliminating Frogster rather than geraintm removes that option.)

It also seems more elegant to eliminate a player who could well be scum, than a player who I think is almost certainly town.

[callforjudgement]

As reads may well suddenly be necessary again, some thoughts:

a) I still don't understand the case for geraintm as scum, even after Titus explained it to me. In particular, I don't think there was any particular motivation to bus D3; in a 2:7, you would bus only if you think the elimination of your partner was inevitable. Apparently at least Frogster (who, if geraintm is hypothetically scum, is hypothetically town) thought that the elimination could and should be avoided. If geraintm were scum, why would he lazily join Gamma's wagon rather than try to save Gamma (e.g. either by agreeing with Frogster, or by trying to create a counterwagon?).
b) #1991 was not intended as a reaction test, but it can still be used as one. The plan listed in that post, in effect, creates a forced win for Nosferatu; so for players who are not Nosferatu, I would expect them to fight against the plan if they are scum. I think Frogster's reaction to the plan has been by far the scummiest of anyone; he reacts by pushing Nosferatu, which is necessary for scum in Frogster's position to not lose; and he posted #2022 which looks a lot like Frogster cares about surviving more than he cares about town winning.
c) Titus brings up #808 / #816 as a reason to townread Frogster. I think that this is correct, but not definitive; Frogster introduced shelly as a compromise wagon, but pushed it only moderately hard (implying that he would be happy to switch to geraintm instead). The most likely explanation for this is that Frogster is town. It's also plausible, however, that Frogster is scum and wasn't expecting the wagon to go through. (Bear in mind that if scum had been more active at the end of Day 1, it wouldn't have done.) So it may have been a distancing attempt that backfired.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I remember my play D3 now, I was suggesting a plan with Gamma similar to the one we are enacting now with CFJ, to test the claim. I was in Michigan that week and on tons of edibles and also drunk sometimes so it may not have made much sense and I don't recall what I was thinking beyond that.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I remember my play D3 now, I was suggesting a plan with Gamma similar to the one we are enacting now with CFJ, to test the claim. I was in Michigan that week and on tons of edibles and also drunk sometimes so it may not have made much sense and I don't recall what I was thinking beyond that.

To be fair I believe I would have made somewhat similar actions D3 had I been sober.

[Frogsterking]

CFJs play today is causing my mind to drift back to my D2 Gamma+CFJ theory places.

I wonder if Gamma's anger at the end of D3 was over Shelley's play end of D1. Both CFJ and potentially Gamma expressed anger over that.

Nosferatu skipping hammering me and voting geraintm is making me seriously rethink my Nosferatu theory.

[Frogsterking]

CFJs play today is causing my mind to drift back to my D2 Gamma+CFJ theory places.

I wonder if Gamma's anger at the end of D3 was over Shelley's play end of D1. Both CFJ and potentially Gamma expressed anger over that.

Nosferatu skipping hammering me and voting geraintm is making me seriously rethink my Nosferatu theory.

UNVOTE: Nosferatu

[Frogsterking]

I don't know, what are the odds at this point CFJ still flips scum?

[Frogsterking]

In CFJ's 2029 I'm really scum reading the overall sentiment and the final paragraph especially.

[callforjudgement]

@

Frogsterking

: Do you have any strong townreads? It doesn't really matter who the scum is, as long as we find a townie.

(For what its worth, I think your last few posts have been pretty townish. #2030 is an explanation I wasn't expecting, but it makes sense in retrospect.)

[Frogsterking]

I town read Titus and Nos lightly for not hammering me.

[callforjudgement]

UNVOTE:

[Looker]

• I don't know how to take Frogsterking's threat/ultimatum. He or CFJ can hammer, though.
  
• My paranoia tells me that CFJ is the last scum and he's bluffing for time.

[Frogsterking]

That plan's actually pretty cool because if you use your night action on me then it will clear me.

[callforjudgement]

@

Looker

: Do you have any strong townreads?

[Titus]

CFD, your rationale for not voting geratim looks awfully survivalistic.

[callforjudgement]

I don't see how it's likely to have any impact on my survival?

The important thing is to find which player we're going to stake the game on being town. People's scumreads seem to be all over the place, and at least your townreads are very different from mine.

If everyone is satisfied that Nosferatu is town,

including

the player who ends up making the decision in a 2:1 ending (even if it's Frogster), I can vote geraint because the order in which we eliminate people really won't matter in that case. But I'm not convinced that everyone is actually satisfied with that, and I don't want to risk the game on a bad 2:1-ending decision when we could be making the decision now.

[GeorgeBailey]

geraintm has been prodded!

[GeorgeBailey]

Votecount 4.7

geraintm(3)

~ Titus(38), WaltertheDunce10(13), Nosferatu(14)

Frogsterking(1)

~ Looker(14)


Not Voting (3): callforjudgement(48), geraintm(9), Frogsterking(71)

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 4 deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-16 00:31:59)

[geraintm]

I'm sorry for not posting more.
I tried a few days ago to respond to my actions on day 1, but jo knew really replied, so that combined with weekend meant I didn't feel much desire to post.
I'm fairly sure I am going tonget lynched either today or tomorrow. I'd obviously prefer to not get lynched today as I know it won't be helpful forntown, but others can work it all out and decide what is best. I was more than happy to go with the plan of locking me up tonight.

I can post more tomorrow to explain more of my actions that people think make me a target to be lynched

[Frogsterking]

Geraintm's latest post and CFJ's unvote I view as slightly more likely to come from town than mafia. Everyone has town told in some form over the last 72 hours except Looker.

[Frogsterking]

Geraintm and CFJ's town tells are both the most recent and the weakest.

[geraintm]

I town read Titus and Nos lightly for not hammering me.

ok, VOTE: forgsterking
i am bemused by their focus on titus. like titus is one of only 2 people who are def town.
even in the CFJ is scum scenario, titus is still town/. why even bring it up??

and why don't I get any cred for not hammering you?

frog's post 2022 is weird. they have just been everywhere today...

i'm basically fine with CFJ plan in 2028. I dunno what else to say about me and people thinking I am not town. it means people think I voted my partner day 1 when I didn't need to, that day 2 went through with no scum on the wagon and I voted my partner on day 3 too?