Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!

[Hectic]

I'm currently thinking Plus + ???

Not duppin because of the above probably.
Not shelly because of Jacko interactions, but I will reread those.
Not UNOwen because of him linking himself to Noraa and voting with her.

Sooooo dave??????? It's possible, but the easy solve makes me very uneasy.

Whatever, the important thing to day is launching the most scummy candidate, think about partners on the next day.

[Hectic]

i keep going back to the dave/plus being the last two and it really is the most simple solve i think but does feel a bit too easy, but this is definitely wher i am at

Exactly what I'm thinking right now

[duppin]

obviously this isnt the case from your point of view, but plus + you is a possibility as well actually

[PlusJOYED]

If you look through Plus's ISO, he doesn't actually explain why he scumread Mundi or give any independent reasons, he just thinks Mundi is strongly scum and says he thought there was an "agenda pushed there"

personally
my solve is looking like mundi/dave and their team is in shambles
mundi's day 2 iso upon reread also looks pretty bad, i think there was an

agenda pushed there

his day 1 play did kinda remind me of how he was when he was a tracker in that game.

What agenda, Plus?

One post that stood out to me was that mundi thought me vs norwee was not TvT. It ended up being TvT, but to me that was an agenda pushed to elim me and/or norwee after one of us flipped green.
Also the fact that they stalled day 2 on Noraas elim made me think they were looking for an opportunity to give 1 more day of life for noraa as their partner.

I think I like Duppin/Dave actually for the solve.
I'm not convinced that "Duppin would never kill bugs as scum" because he was still basically a confirmed townie. And he's also very "open to doing whatever" which is how I think scum would try to play this, but he's also very strongly encouraging an elim of me while being safe/neutral.

I think if we elim today I'll probably vote within Dave/duppin, but a nolim is better.

[PlusJOYED]

I had a very strong suspicion that mundi was scum after reading his iso. I thought it would be better to hammer there then give them a chance to change the wagon with their partner if the solve wasn't (mundi,dave) so it wouldn't result in a mislim.

Literally the entire game was set on killing Mundi. UNOwen asked "does anyone disagree that Mundi should be tomorrow's elim?" or something along those lines the previous day even, and literally no one objected. There's no reason to believe or fear the vote was suddenly going to swing and people would change their minds, enough to cause you to end the day immediately like that. I'm struggling to believe it.

it doesn't make sense if im scum either though
if all the town was against mundi and I had known he was VT, why would I lolhammer there? If me and dave are the team that'd be near suicidal

[duppin]

PlusJoyed you scumread Tayl0r. Wanna join this wagon? It seems better than Redados.

No this is stupid. Theres literally no lim better than Redados today however if I was required to choose a different wagon ... I could prolly think about compromising on Taylor.

okey. i haven't done a full analysis on taylor but grendel was sus af

UNVOTE: red
VOTE: taylor

Plus: comes in, votes the biggest wagon, Redados
When people start shifting wagons, he jumps to a Taylor wagon with literally no reason.

VOTE: Plus

Ik in general ur considered easy limbait but I want to put pressure on u for flipflopping. Please defend your actions to prove you are town. Yes I am hesitant to vote u and shit cuz I been wrong about u before but I want an answer bc this one really isn't reading hot.

currently going through noraas iso and realised that she actually voted on plus earlier on

[PlusJOYED]

I also think there's some subtle pocketing going on with "I'm struggling to think the solve is joy + dave" as well, likely from duppin.
Identifying hectic as the "town leader", and trying to push an idea to him for a mislim while being open to whatever seems very much like a scum mentality. I think duppin has a high chance of being scum

[PlusJOYED]

so duppin + ?
shelly doubtful unless shelly flips on me here.
hectic doubtful cause it didn't seem like theater. Usually the point of theater is for someones mind to get changed in an argument to protect a scumbuddy or move to a wagon. That interaction didnt seem like that at all
dave maybe?
uno maybe?
I'll need to reread isos later

[duppin]

I also think there's some subtle pocketing going on with "I'm struggling to think the solve is joy + dave" as well, likely from duppin.
Identifying hectic as the "town leader", and trying to push an idea to him for a mislim while being open to whatever seems very much like a scum mentality. I think duppin has a high chance of being scum

what?

[duppin]

@Hectic talk to me about shelly and noraa. I was reading through noraa's ISO again i noticed something that while Noraa was calling shelly scum, she never voted on her. Not only that she responded to a lot of the votes on shelly and ended up defending while also calling her scum, eg:

VOTE: shellyc

I have an operating theory that opportunistic wagoning is one of shelly's scumtells. The source of this theory is that when other people do it, she calls them scummy.

The fact that she applied her vote to the Redados wagon to make it 'actually useful' without much additional reasoning and didn't do the same on the saudade wagon smells off to me.

did she call it scummy when she was town or scum? If scum, this logic doesn't apply cuz scum make up all their reasoning since they know who the scums are

@redados so you're null on taylor?

noraa's subtly shading me
what if this whole thing redadosvnoraa was scum theatre

VOTE: Noraa

I kinda think noraa's scummier than redados based off the reactions, noraa just seems insincere moreso than redados. i think redados IIOA is still scummy. considering scum theatre possibility

Scum theatre my ass.
VOTE: ShellyC

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I actually love this. However as I've said before ... shelly plays weird. I have a hard time reading her. I feel like she just gives off scummy vibes no matter her alignment. Idk when it comes to reading her, I seriously dont know.

Scum theatre my ass.
VOTE: ShellyC

ok you're wrong

this sounds lots like one of ur posts from doggos when someone called u scum

My current scum team I think is:
Shelly
Redados
Norwee/bugspray

plus this was the scumteam she gave, 3 of them are now confirmed town. Generally i'd say you can usually expect scum to put at least 1 teammate there for distancing but there is no guarantee of that and seeing as noraa is a pretty new player she might not be comfortable enough in doing so

theres more than this, when someone suggested it could be scum theater noraa felt the need to point out how absurd that was several times:

No I think it would be to get me off ur tail. The reason is that anyone that assumes Shelly and I ended up both rolling scum again has to be a low-key delusional townie that wants the pieces that clearly don't fit together to fit together. You saying you ruled out the possibility just makes u sound more town cuz the probability of that happening is literally god knows how low. And considering a possibility that is literally so damn small definitely looks town imo. But then I'm kinda like mmm what if scum!redados is trying to change my mind with this bc he knows I overthink the shit outta everything and anything?

+ post 1259, 1263, 1264, 1266

so i dont think this means shelly is necessarily scum, but i know several of you have more experience with both noraa and shelly so i would like to hear opinions on this.
however my take is that while noraas behaviour is really odd, shelly's isn't. Her push feels way more natural to me. I think a possible explanation for noraas behaviour could simply be because as i stated above that she is a relatively new player so she might not be that comfortable by pushing against a really aggressive player like shelly - I mean she did call her out several times but she never actively tried to wagon her and did some slight defense of her while also calling her scum, which to me does come across a bit as her not wanting to push shelly directly because she isnt comfortable with it.

[PlusJOYED]

noraa hates bussing. I'm not suprised her scum team is all town slots

[duppin]

@davesaz I really need to hear more from you. If we are limming anyone today then I believe it should be you. You haven't really made any proper associations this game which I think is extremely suspicious as I expect town to naturally form them when attempting to gamesolve, so this to me indicates that you have been in the backseat for most of the game. Also as I stated before I have a hard time believing that you did not have any chance to explain your read on Mundivore yesterday when you put out a naked vote and I would still like you to explain the read

[duppin]

noraa hates bussing. I'm not suprised her scum team is all town slots

yes my initial impression of her is that she dislikes bussing as well. these are the players she voted on:

redados, tayl0r, bugs and you. 3 of them are already confirmed town.
I do believe her initial vote on you does give you some town cred

[davesaz]

dave then catches up, but does not acknowledge the plus wagon either in 2177

In what world is it surprising that I spent all my energy figuring out the two claims that had happened? This observation seems to be coming from a direction of expecting a pairing and trying to find it vs. not knowing.

Pedit: it's a work day.

[duppin]

sorry i meant bm not tayl0r

[duppin]

dave then catches up, but does not acknowledge the plus wagon either in 2177

In what world is it surprising that I spent all my energy figuring out the two claims that had happened? This observation seems to be coming from a direction of expecting a pairing and trying to find it vs. not knowing.

Pedit: it's a work day.

Yes that is possible, I was simply making an observation

[davesaz]

Massclaim: yay or nay?

why does mafia doc = not a good idea to massclaim btw?

Because it could indicate there is a vigi around

If the purpose of the doc was purely to partially nerf the gunsmith then there may not be a vig at all. Seeing no unexplained deaths lends credibility to a no vig scenario, though I suppose something outlandish like a night specific with a high night number is possible. Normal design has tended toward those kinds of unusual setups.

[davesaz]

This is the only "read" dave offered on Noraa day 1, and it strikes me as quite likely to be partner speak. Calling attention to a player to announce that you've noticed them but have no hint of an opinion alignment either way is strange, especially when there were other prominent players (shelly) that were ignored.

Congrats on figuring out that I give up easily trying to read people with 500+ posts.

[davesaz]

Is this all you have to comment on Dave? What are your scumreads now?

NGL, it's hard reset time. I'm going to run out of lunch break time soon and it's gonna take a shitton of reading to do that reset.

[duppin]

Massclaim: yay or nay?

why does mafia doc = not a good idea to massclaim btw?

Because it could indicate there is a vigi around

If the purpose of the doc was purely to partially nerf the gunsmith then there may not be a vig at all. Seeing no unexplained deaths lends credibility to a no vig scenario, though I suppose something outlandish like a night specific with a high night number is possible. Normal design has tended toward those kinds of unusual setups.

that is definitely a possibility as well i agree

[UNOwen]

Congrats on figuring out that I give up easily trying to read people with 500+ posts.

Well the point isn't that you gave up on trying to read noraa, it's that you felt it necessary to mention noraa at all.

[UNOwen]

One post that stood out to me was that mundi thought me vs norwee was not TvT. It ended up being TvT, but to me that was an agenda pushed to elim me and/or norwee after one of us flipped green.
Also the fact that they stalled day 2 on Noraas elim made me think they were looking for an opportunity to give 1 more day of life for noraa as their partner.

This is not a great justification for thinking Mundi is scum. They had about three posts during day two, and none of them suggested any sort of resistance to Noraa's execution.

[UNOwen]

Hectic what was the Mini META from the start of the game based on?

[PlusJOYED]

hey I missed a bunch of the thread at the end of last day. I've got a bit more time on my hands rn so I'll try to keep up.

@bugspray: probably a good idea to unvote so someone doesn't yolohammer, the day just started and there's a lot of analysis still available.

here

[PlusJOYED]

If there is a vig, do you think their claim is worth it?

If the vig is so bad that they target one of BM/Taylor who both said they could confirm their role. I'd rather they just claim and die tbh.

I mean... yeah.

this also seemed like they had known noraa was about to claim vig