Mini Theme 2165: MafiaSunny (Complete!)

[Ythan]

VP is disproportionately positioned relative to other players to decide Gamma's fate. It's not a mechanic or anything.

[Noraa]

Oh I didnt think about that from gammas perspective but yeah that makes sense now.

[Noraa]

I thought he was trying to get a vp lim and I was like wtf has this world come to.

[VP Baltar]

okay yeah actually VP your reads rn don't line up at all with what you seem to have been thinking prior? Where is the continuity of your thought process my dude?

I'm just here to find scum. If my previous thoughts were wrong (and they were! See skies, tn flips), then I need to evaluate why that was and make adjustments.

That's not scummy at all. That's mental flexibility.

I will walk you through my thoughts shortly. Wrapping up work now and can dedicate some time here

[Gamma Emerald]

please try to do it before 7:30 as that's when I expect my ability to respond to fall off

[VP Baltar]

please try to do it before 7:30 as that's when I expect my ability to respond to fall off

What timezone? I'm starting now. Your primary question is how I'm arriving at you as possibly the best yeet today? What else can I answer?

[VP Baltar]

@VP I'd really like to know what the full logic you're working with is, because I really don't understand why the skies flip makes Noraa town, and why you're so obsessed with targeting me. You've pretty much singularly expressed interest in eliminating me, which is not a town mindset so I'm baffled how it's the one you have, seeing as you're confirmed town.

OK, hopefully you're still around, but here is a quick overview of how I'm arriving at you.

Yesterday, I did think skies + Noraa made logical sense in terms of a buddy pair. Their play around each other was not very aggressive and Noraa was defending skies pretty hard before his flip. That alone doesn't make her town, but if you reread that part of the day, you could interpret it as town having second thoughts.

Then today, Noraa opens the day with a pretty extensive analysis of the game state that oozes town. She thoroughly evaluates you, duppin and Haschel, and arrives at the very logical conclusion that you have to be scum since those two are SUPER unlikely to be buddies. It's a perspective that screams town mentality.

Last, Noraa has continued to engage today and try to sort the game. You can see this in her agonizing over duppin/Haschel and which one is scum out of them.

The reason I'm focusing on you as the yeet is that all makes sense. I agree that you're the common denominator, and you're not exactly doing anything to disprove that. Saying me suspecting you is "not a town mindset" is about the worst argument I've heard in awhile. The burden isn't on me today, and I said at the start of the day that I'm not going to be the only person solving the game today.

Please tell me the logical team pairing from your perspective.

[Noraa]

Gamma, if I remember correctly, sheeped duppin's solve of Noraa/Haschel :/

...which honestly duppins solve still feels OMGUSy to me but then like the argument that Haschel almost cleared reck is pretty damn convincing. Haschel and gamma have almost no interaction tho and that's a lil ... :/

[Gamma Emerald]

please try to do it before 7:30 as that's when I expect my ability to respond to fall off

What timezone? I'm starting now. Your primary question is how I'm arriving at you as possibly the best yeet today? What else can I answer?

Walk me through the evolution of your Noraa read from when you posted your eod4 list to now

[Gamma Emerald]

@VP I'd really like to know what the full logic you're working with is, because I really don't understand why the skies flip makes Noraa town, and why you're so obsessed with targeting me. You've pretty much singularly expressed interest in eliminating me, which is not a town mindset so I'm baffled how it's the one you have, seeing as you're confirmed town.

OK, hopefully you're still around, but here is a quick overview of how I'm arriving at you.

Yesterday, I did think skies + Noraa made logical sense in terms of a buddy pair. Their play around each other was not very aggressive and Noraa was defending skies pretty hard before his flip. That alone doesn't make her town, but if you reread that part of the day, you could interpret it as town having second thoughts.

Then today, Noraa opens the day with a pretty extensive analysis of the game state that oozes town. She thoroughly evaluates you, duppin and Haschel, and arrives at the very logical conclusion that you have to be scum since those two are SUPER unlikely to be buddies. It's a perspective that screams town mentality.

Last, Noraa has continued to engage today and try to sort the game. You can see this in her agonizing over duppin/Haschel and which one is scum out of them.

The reason I'm focusing on you as the yeet is that all makes sense. I agree that you're the common denominator, and you're not exactly doing anything to disprove that. Saying me suspecting you is "not a town mindset" is about the worst argument I've heard in awhile. The burden isn't on me today, and I said at the start of the day that I'm not going to be the only person solving the game today.

Please tell me the logical team pairing from your perspective.

Honestly there's not a whole lot of deep thought to who I think the team is. Noraa is known scum to me rn, and I think Haschel's role is scummier. I think the core of the problem here is you're making it out like effort is something that indicates alignment, for Noraa in particular, but you also seem to be putting out the value judgment that my work is less than Noraa's so I, like, deserve to lose/die. That's not very sensible or fair imo. Both alignments have reason to effort, and to suggest I should lose or be taken out because I'm not trying as hard as Noraa is honestly super unkind to my circumstances. I had been bracing myself for a reduction in activity but it recently got harshly compounded, so I REALLY cannot put in nearly as much effort as Noraa has. You're essentially saying I should lose for having a life.

[VP Baltar]

Second thing I want to address today is Haschel's voyeur claim. Here are his night actions:

N1: Targeted Reck (bus driver incident, I'll get into this)
N2: Targeted VP
N3: Targeted UT
N4: Targeted Noraa

Ok, so here is the problem with Haschel. Little of the information he provided was not said in thread already (I'm pretty sure), or wouldn't be known by the scum team. CAVEAT: THIS DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MAKE HIM SCUM.

But it also means he is not necessarily town.

N1, if Reck and Haschel were scum buddies, Haschel would have bee able to figure out in the scum PT why he got hit by my FN and Ythan's mask N1 because Ythan softclaimed before Haschel when Reck was outted. This is kind of a complex timeline, which I can break down further if needed. But Reck and Haschel are both really smart players. I fully expect they could have figured this out based on Ythan and me both nodding that Reck seemed suspicious.

N2 - Haschel says he targeted me and no one visited me. This is slightly unconfirmed at the time he claims this, but he also knows I already targeted Reck N1 and Haschel N2 since he received my FN confirmation two nights in a row. (FREAKING HILARIOUS IF I TARGETED TWO SCUM). The odds that I wouldn't have claimed more info if I had it were low at this point in the game (massclaim). I actually assume scum had most of the PRs figured out by the time Haschel claimed, so this is mostly knowable.

N3- Saying you targeted UT on the night of the kill is exceptionally safe from a scum perspective....and it actually doesn't even make that much sense from a town perspective? What could be learned by voyeuring the guy who was very likely to die?

N4 - Claims after duppin, so this was known already and a chance to counterclaim a missing action. The wrinkle here is maybe he wasn't intending to counterclaim duppin? Haschel did not know I targeted Noraa (unless he is a scum watcher actually, which would also make sense). I can't fully remove this one from a possible town Haschel column.



Open to hearing thoughts on this, and I should probably do the same for duppin's claims. There could be some nugget in their that proves MD claim is true or not true.

[VP Baltar]

You're essentially saying I should lose for having a life.

Nah dawg.

I'm not like looking at post counts and saying "well, you post less, so...."

I'm looking at people who are genuinely trying to solve the game and explaining why their solves make sense. I'm not saying Noraa can't be scum here, but I'm not seeing a good argument why she is. What am I supposed to draw as a conclusion from that?

[Haschel Cedricson]

N3- Saying you targeted UT on the night of the kill is exceptionally safe from a scum perspective....and it actually doesn't even make that much sense from a town perspective? What could be learned by voyeuring the guy who was very likely to die?

Because if he didn't die and there wasn't another kill I would know if it was because of a protective role or if we were looking at a no-kill gambit or blocker scenario. And considering where the claims were at the point I wasn't entirely sure it mattered who I targeted.

[VP Baltar]

Looking at duppin's night actions:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion
n4: noraa - motion detected

Duppin claims no motion from gamma well before gamma claims. N1 & N4 were knowable in thread and could be faked. If gamma was town and duppin was scum, that was a risky claim. Gamma could have been some type of soft PR that moves, or he could have been visited one of those nights by Ythan or me. This doesn't exclude a duppin-gamma scum team.

This is a funny quote from duppin's claim:

I suppose i might as well just claim as i am not sure sitting on my claim really matters. I also don't really think it matters whether me or gamma claims first at this point because if he is scum then he should be able to conclude what my read on him is related to i think

i am a motion detector:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion

so initially thought gamma was more likely to be town for not doing anything n2 but after him not doing anything n3 either I feel pretty confident about him being town actually.
I don't want to go too wifom on this, but in my opinion i just think it seems logical for mafia to use gamma as the kill after reck flipped assuming one of skies and noora is the other mafia given they were obvious tpr targets.

the only plausibile possibility i can really see if haschel is scum and they used him to do the kill instead i guess, but yeah only possible teammate i can really see for Gamma is haschel but I honestly just think Gamma is town

Using haschel for the kills actually does make sense after he performed that hammer D1, especially if he is a goon.

[Gamma Emerald]

Well I don’t really have the time to explain at this point, due to my IRL circumstances. Or at least, not in the same style Noraa does.

As for the night action evaluation in 1485 that actually seems decent. I’ll wait for the MD result side before trying to do anything heavy with it, though the part about Haschel’s actions not providing much info is pretty much the play aspect of why I think the claim is a scum one vs. a town one. In addition I think it’s more designed to be a scum PR vs. a town one based on the roles we have.

[Haschel Cedricson]

Gamma could have been some type of soft PR that moves, or he could have been visited one of those nights by Ythan or me. This doesn't exclude a duppin-gamma scum team.

He couldn't have been visited by Ythan or you, as I had already said that you targeted me and Ythan had already claimed to have targeted Agar.

Using haschel for the kills actually does make sense after he performed that hammer D1, especially if he is a goon.

Aside from the fact that UT saw Reck commit the first kill, and the fact that I'm not a good, I was under a lot of scrutiny on both hammers and was a likely investigation target so I'm not sure I follow.

[Gamma Emerald]

Hm.
Haschel, why did you target Noraa of all players N4?

[Haschel Cedricson]

*not a goon

[Haschel Cedricson]

Hm.
Haschel, why did you target Noraa of all players N4?

My thoughts on Noraa being scum were strongly linked to the idea of a Noraa/Skies partnership. When they flipped town I had to reevaluate and didn't have any better ideas with who to voyeur.

[Gamma Emerald]

That doesn’t check out to me. If you were targeting consistently you really should have targeted VPB for the same reason you targeted UT. But I suspect you targeted Noraa to confound duppin if he chose to MD Noraa, and in addition while targeting UT in the case of a kill and protect action showing up would provide decent benefit to town, it would provide SIGNIFICANT benefit to scum, as they know there’s a protective in the midst that they need to take out.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, so lastly, we arrive at this question of whether it is better to lim from the {norra, gamma} pool or the {duppin, Haschel} pool.

I'm trying to logically walk through this as I write, so this might be slightly incoherent.

If we lim between {noraa, gamma} we have another night of actions from duppin & Haschel. Problem there is I don't think there is a good way to use their results to provide clarity tomorrow on who is town. Maybe someone is smarter than me and can figure that out.

If we lim between {duppin, Haschel}, duppin could potentially confirm the last scum tomorrow. That's a big benefit I hadn't considered until just now.

Overall, to me, this sort of feels like a decision about which day we want to take the most risk on, today or tomorrow. Gamma feels like the safer choice to me today, but it is basically delaying that risk until tomorrow unless someone solves the night action puzzle.

[duppin]

I think what i will say VP is that I feel you are giving noraa townpass a bit too easy, i get the impression that you have not played with her before and thus are giving her a newb pass but she isn't a bad scum player actually.
we are in mylo so her pushing out the only possible worlds she can doesn't really mean anything especially not if the team is just haschel + noraa. I will gladly admit I am not looking that much after the second partner right now, I believe both are possible and I do believe noraa has been slightly more town than Gamma today but I do not believe she has been as town as you seem to believe for us to lim outside me and Haschel

[VP Baltar]

Well I don’t really have the time to explain at this point, due to my IRL circumstances. Or at least, not in the same style Noraa does.

As for the night action evaluation in 1485 that actually seems decent. I’ll wait for the MD result side before trying to do anything heavy with it, though the part about Haschel’s actions not providing much info is pretty much the play aspect of why I think the claim is a scum one vs. a town one. In addition I think it’s more designed to be a scum PR vs. a town one based on the roles we have.

So you're saying it's got to be Haschel and noraa?

[duppin]

also this should be obvious but i still feel the need to mention it, we can't really form any association reads based on today as it is very much a possibility that scum would bus today and i mean who knows, it's all wifom. So Gamma isn't more townie for voting on Haschel and Noraa isn't more townie for wanting to vote on Gamma

[VP Baltar]

I think what i will say VP is that I feel you are giving noraa townpass a bit too easy, i get the impression that you have not played with her before and thus are giving her a newb pass but she isn't a bad scum player actually.

I don't think it's newb pass at all. I've been gone from the site for a very long time, so there are few people left here who I have played with (though a disproportionate number in this game)....meaning, I really don't have much to base anyone's play on other than what is happening in this game. I believe you she can be a good scum player, but that'd be some exceptionally good scumplay imo.

I will take time to reread her at some point though and make sure I'm not biasing myself here.