Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!

[davesaz]

<--- thinking, not fence sitting. That guy's definitely not sitting on a fence.

[davesaz]

Wasn't even paying attention to the post number. If I'd been trying to do that it would never have come out.

[shellyc]

<--- thinking, not fence sitting. That guy's definitely not sitting on a fence.

dave how much longer will you finish thinking then...

are you producing the second coming of noraa's wall

[davesaz]

I have a mechanical analysis of Shelly's claim, but it makes more sense to talk about it after massclaim. I don't want to take any risk at all that scum can use it to get an advantage.

[PlusJOYED]

Massclaim starting with me, eh?
VT, my least favorite role.

i am also vt

[UNOwen]

I am VT too.

lol?

"OK PLAYER X IS SCUM!"
"but they have no scum motivation!"

It's a real dilemma.

[shellyc]

UNO thoughts on plus slot

you seem to have little-to-no-interest solving there for some reason

[UNOwen]

UNO thoughts on plus slot

you seem to have little-to-no-interest solving there for some reason

I believe he is town.

[Hectic]

Cool, I suspected everyone would claim VT, but I was hoping for another non-VT, because it'd confirm even more stuff. I am a 2-shot commuter. I'm full claiming the role because I think it's important for explaining why I think shelly's role is too much setup-wise. We have:

Town Informed Gunsmith
Town Rolestopper
Town Weak Friendly Neighbour
Town 2-shot Commuter
Town Night 3 Tracker
8 VTs

If my role didn't exist, I could maybe see the tracker coexisting with both the gunsmith and weak FN, despite them both being moderately strong investigatives, but having my role in the game too tips the balance towards the tracker being too much imo.

What do you all think? I'll be checking some old normal games to get a feel later. Also, looking at the "struck down" list, we have been absolutely abysmal at keeping our PRs alive... 3 most powerful ones all dead by night 2. I wish you hadn't claimed informed, Norwee.

But basically, rolestopper/weak FN/commuter all fit together, since weak FN can catch scum but then put us on evens as a price. Rolestopper or commuter should in theory have a chance of putting us back on odds. The tracker is kind of random and just another PR thrown in the mix. It doesn't make sense setup-wise, it's just thrown in there.

[PlusJOYED]

mafia doctor
I'm guessing 1 other mafia pr.
i think yeah 1 of tracker or night 3 tracker is fake.

[Hectic]

Whoops, I mean:

Mafia Doctor
Mafia ???
Mafia ???
Town Informed Gunsmith
Town Rolestopper
Town Weak Friendly Neighbour
Town 2-shot Commuter
Town Night 3 Tracker
VT
VT
VT
VT
VT

The gunsmith is nerfed because of the mafia doc, but at least it's informed of it. I think this is decently supporting evidence that shelly's claim is probably false, but I should probably try and convince you guys more based on shelly actually being scummy too.

Dave, when you gonna get to us with those reads?

[Hectic]

mafia doctor
I'm guessing 1 other mafia pr.
i think yeah 1 of tracker or night 3 tracker is fake.

Do you mean commuter?

[PlusJOYED]

I actually am very split with that claim
Like I think there is a very good chance duppin/hectic is the scumteam. Reason being, is that I think commuter even if 2 shot is too much protection. assuming maf get a day 1 town elim, they enter n1 with 3 maf and 9 townies to pick from.
with roleblocker and commuter, they have a 2/9 chance to miss their first NK. if rolestopper and commuter survive, which they should, the chance of getting a kill broken gets worse over time. coupled with how late this commuter claim is, I get the suspicion that this may be a way to end up with a shelly mislim from duppin/hectic scumteam. its also a convient reason for hectic to obvtown and live so long.
i also think shelly is capable of faking this. so im now very torn.
peddit yeah i mean commuter

[PlusJOYED]

. . .
intent on duppin

[PlusJOYED]

UNO thoughts on plus slot

you seem to have little-to-no-interest solving there for some reason

see, this post could be a pocket on me too since i said uno/duppin team. but the shelly pocket seems like such a longshot to attempt
god dammit

[PlusJOYED]

at the very least, hectics claim makes me sure that if duppin is red, hectic is his partner.
if shelly scum, it'd have to be dave or uno partner

[UNOwen]

I don't think I have much authority on setup speculation, but agreed that this is looking like too much town power.
Intrigued to see how this will impact dave's analysis.

[PlusJOYED]

hectic I respect you and think you'd be quite skilled enough to change my mind on duppin if ur scum. so here goes, hope this doesn't lose us the game
VOTE: duppin

[UNOwen]

Plus, you realise you've only put duppin at E-2 right?

[PlusJOYED]

oh
i thought it was 3 votes to elim today

[Hectic]

Do you need to see one big case from me, Plus? I really think you're making a huge mistake here.

Me surviving isn't convenient at all when the rolestopper was outed day 1, and Norwee outed himself as a PR on day 2 when he said he was informed, and bugspray was clear on day 3.

[Hectic]

hectic I respect you and think you'd be quite skilled enough to change my mind on duppin if ur scum. so here goes, hope this doesn't lose us the game
VOTE: duppin

Wait, you're committing to the vote because you feel your mind is being changed? This is some advanced BoPness going on lol

[Hectic]

Yeah, I got this feeling which is why I didn't mention it at all.

I really do think shelly is scum though, Plus. She's pocketed you and is way too confident you're town, it's TMI. Her being "dumb" is not because she's dumb, it's because those thoughts are fake.

@shelly: Why didn't you claim the guilty straight away?

because i was considering risk vs. reward in case duppin was PR

i overthought wayyyyyy too much

also confidence =! TMI, you're confident in scum!me, does this mean you claim scum with me.

Look at this. I asked shelly why she didn't out her guilty straight away. Honestly, I was expecting the answer of "I wanted to wait a little to get some info of where people went before outing it". That answer would be reasonable, but plausible that scum!shelly thought of it. I was expecting to get a NAI response basically.

Instead, shelly didn't even think of that, and went with "I was afraid duppin was a PR who happened to have visited the bugspray on the night they died". This is extremely implausible and unlikely, and shelly does not really believe this. The fact she didn't even think about the info-gathering part means she hasn't thought it through very much, which is even more of an indicator that she isn't someone looking through the perspective of a night 3 tracker, but is fakeclaiming it.

[Hectic]

UNOwen, why aren't you helping me out here? Do you not see the same things I do?

[UNOwen]

UNOwen, why aren't you helping me out here? Do you not see the same things I do?

I see exactly what you are seeing, shelly's claim and the way she has gone about it is suspicious as anything (hesitating in case of PR when having tracked a player to a kill is at odds with her "shoot first interrogate later" approach, tracking to look for town in a game with likely two scum is ridiculous, claiming to be confident on reading me based on a meta-tell I've got from one game, the pockety looking interactions with Plus today, etc.) but have a gnawing fear that:

a) I think shelly is scum because she has played erratically and in a way that doesn't make sense to me, but is in fact just how she rolls
b) I think dave is scum because he is not here

And that maybe I am the one in a pocket.