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[UNOwen]

plus was pushing the idea very early on this day that if hectic survived then he would push him tomorrow because he would be the most likely partner, he didnt state for who but and didnt respond to when i asked him to elaborate but later kind of followed up on it and said he was the most likely partner for me. I initially thought his logic was a bti weird, but then when i realised he mixed up the replacements it made a bit more sense to me, but i am a bit troubled by him not revaluating associations after realising he messed up the replacements. So yeah ultimately i think he is lazy town or scum and at the moment i am leaning more towards the former because I think dave is more suspicious

Yeah he was, but I think shelly at that stage would still have gone for the kill against Hectic because UNO/duppin scum is likely to be an easier sell in endgame than Hectic/duppin based on our comparative presence in thread.

[duppin]

plus was pushing the idea very early on this day that if hectic survived then he would push him tomorrow because he would be the most likely partner, he didnt state for who but and didnt respond to when i asked him to elaborate but later kind of followed up on it and said he was the most likely partner for me. I initially thought his logic was a bti weird, but then when i realised he mixed up the replacements it made a bit more sense to me, but i am a bit troubled by him not revaluating associations after realising he messed up the replacements. So yeah ultimately i think he is lazy town or scum and at the moment i am leaning more towards the former because I think dave is more suspicious

Yeah he was, but I think shelly at that stage would still have gone for the kill against Hectic because UNO/duppin scum is likely to be an easier sell in endgame than Hectic/duppin based on our comparative presence in thread.

sure i agree that is definitely a possibility, but i dont think so. shelly tried to push that i would kill her or hectic - both which are really bad kills from my point of view as scum because either i kill shelly (who has claimed n3 tracker so leaving her alive would be irrelevant) and immediately get limmed the next day, or i kill hectic who was already siding me with over shelly at this point so reducing my chance to win in mylo. The kill would only make sense from her point of view and the fact that she tried to push it onto me is a scumtell and one of many reasons why her fake claim was not good

[duppin]

oh i misread your post actually - i think she initially wanted to lim hectic but after plus started pushing me and hectic as the pair it would be bad for her to kill hectic especially if plus is town

[duppin]

i mean kill hectic not lim obviously

[davesaz]

- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day

Not being here <> sitting on hands. And one thing you can be 100% sure of, if I say I haven't been here, I haven't been here.

[UNOwen]

oh i misread your post actually - i think she initially wanted to lim hectic but after plus started pushing me and hectic as the pair it would be bad for her to kill hectic especially if plus is town

Right, but Plus had dropped that push and returned to debating between me/dave as your scum partner until Hectic claimed. It's only now that Hectic has claimed does shelly absolutely not kill him, and it's only with the commuter claim that Hectic has the reason he needs to make it to day 5 and continue to try to convince people on shelly scum. So while this could just be how it turned out, from my perspective if he is scum it's also the claim he needed to make.

[UNOwen]

Not being here <> sitting on hands. And one thing you can be 100% sure of, if I say I haven't been here, I haven't been here.

That you post stuff like this when you are here is why I say you are sitting on your hands.

[davesaz]

So the Hectic claim changes the picture somewhat but I'll discuss Shelly without that.

Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill. With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills. I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.

From a fake claim point of view, this is an obviously horrible claim.

The

fake claim to make in this position to get a fake guilty is a

watch on the semi-conf player

. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam with daytalk would not hash out a fake claim and make the strategically best claim possible. Fake claiming a track guilty suffers right from the start because it's the investigation type that is statistically least likely to hit prior to getting down to one scum left. In this situation any fake claim that's going to result in lengthy discussion is a massively bad idea.

For balance purposes, if it's a true claim then mafia might have a ninja. The balance that has been revealed so far shows complementary roles, with a mafia doc to complement gunsmith, and weak FN to give a guilty where the gunsmith fails. The rolestopper would reduce the probability of other roles being successful without interfering with NK.

Shelly's handling of Duppin's response was weird, which I already pointed out. You'd think that as either alignment she'd look at what might defeat the role and be prepared for it. As scum she might be prepared for an admission that Duppin did indeed visit Bugs, and have rebuttal prepared for that. Scum!Shelly preparation for Duppin saying he didn't visit should be to just press the case. The "tracker miller" idea shouldn't ever enter her head as scum planning ahead. It shouldn't enter her head as town either, a town tracker is expecting a positive result to be either a TPR visiting or scum. So while it's very weird, I don't think that episode really means anything other than she's a very impulsive player who blurts out thoughts with little or no filtering.

Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included.

[davesaz]

I want to make it totally clear that this is a mechanics analysis. I generally suck at reading people based on posting, and tend to be quiet if there isn't anything to run against logic. Feel free to look up just about any game and you'll see me making countless bad reads when they're tone and posting reads. Aside from the small number of people I can meta.

[Hectic]

I think scum!shelly's going to win and I've kind of lost the motivation to fight it anymore. Most likely with Dave.

I haven't caught up completely, but once again, I outed the gunsmith clear without thinking as soon as I saw it, since honestly, I didn't think bugspray would die in the night even with a good clear on them. I later regretted it and even PMed some of my frustration to Morning lol

aaa, I wish I had some more WIM to fight but I really can't be asked right now. duppin, can you please obvtown or something? I feel like the game is lost either way now, since even if I'm horribly wrong and duppin is scum, I'm gonna be mislaunched for the loss tomorrow at this rate.

[Hectic]

I need to remind myself of the mistakes I've made this game:

1) Changed my mind on shelly!scum on day 1 because too scummy to be scum
2) Should've held back on Norwee's bugspray clear soft

Hmm, those are the only two I can think of. I don't think I've played too badly tbh, in a way I'm hoping I'm wrong and duppin is actually scum, but that would be a far more embarrassing way to lose for town the next day.

grumble grumble grumble

[Hectic]

Ftr, if I was scum with duppin: based on how the gamestate was set up ( everyone was believing shelly over duppin, people still townread me), I would absolutely 100% bus duppin at that point and use the towncred to win the next day. Hard defending duppin and going for shelly is just the far more difficult route to victory.

[duppin]

I think scum!shelly's going to win and I've kind of lost the motivation to fight it anymore. Most likely with Dave.

I haven't caught up completely, but once again, I outed the gunsmith clear without thinking as soon as I saw it, since honestly, I didn't think bugspray would die in the night even with a good clear on them. I later regretted it and even PMed some of my frustration to Morning lol

aaa, I wish I had some more WIM to fight but I really can't be asked right now. duppin, can you please obvtown or something? I feel like the game is lost either way now, since even if I'm horribly wrong and duppin is scum, I'm gonna be mislaunched for the loss tomorrow at this rate.

as i said i think the game is over as well. dave is hardly around so impossible to engage with but seems to be leaning towards believing shelly (?) and plus has no interest in trying to solve my alignment

[Hectic]

sighhhh we basically UTR'd hectic for being quite active and giving reads d1

im pretty disappointed in myself for just binning hectic as town

This is a scumpost though. shelly and everyone had very good reasoning to call me town, this is grossly simplifying it to "being quite active and giving reads d1".

Her whole 180 on me reeks of scum motivation and agenda. She herself says she doesn't think commuter and n3 tracker can't coexists, but is forced to finally 180 on me, as continuing to read me as town while I pushed her clearly wasn't working.

Sigh, we're losing today, aren't we?

I'll give it one final try tomorrow to change your minds.

[Hectic]

Dave heavily focusing on mechanics is very scummy too. He's capable of having perfectly fine alignment-based reads as town. 3882 is a really suspect way to land on shelly!town

[duppin]

i understand that i am biased but i genuinely believe that shellys claim was really a bad and i dont think an experienced player would ever really buy it due to the lack of inconsistensy and poor logic. in my opinion it is very easy to deconstruct the fake claim but dave seems to have some kind of mechanical analysis that makes it more believable and plus says "sure it could be scummy but i dont think she would do that", its really not easy to work with

[Hectic]

as i said i think the game is over as well. dave is hardly around so impossible to engage with but seems to be leaning towards believing shelly (?) and plus has no interest in trying to solve my alignment

[duppin]

i mean the lack of consistency obviously

[Hectic]

i understand that i am biased but i genuinely believe that shellys claim was really a bad and i dont think an experienced player would ever really buy it due to the lack of inconsistensy and poor logic. in my opinion it is very easy to deconstruct the fake claim but dave seems to have some kind of mechanical analysis that makes it more believable and plus says "sure it could be scummy but i dont think she would do that", its really not easy to work with

I agree, and the way shelly has postured after claiming is so obvscum, just from hypothesizing about "track millers", not claiming the guilty straight away, thinking you could be a town PR who targeted duppin, all the stuff on day 1 I was scumreading her for...

Why do you think Dave is town and UNO is scum now?

[duppin]

i think you misread, i never said i thought dave was town or uno was scum

[duppin]

oh i see what caused the confusion, i meant that dave seems to have some kind of mechanical analysis that makes shellys claim more believable to him for some reason

[Hectic]

>shelly is obvscum guys

>DAE THINK SHELLY IS TOO SCUMMY TO BE SCUM

>guys, she's scummy because she's scum

>NO SHE WOULDN'T DO SCUMMY THINGS IF SHE WAS SCUM

[Hectic]

oh i see what caused the confusion, i meant that dave seems to have some kind of mechanical analysis that makes shellys claim more believable to him for some reason

I see

[duppin]

but yeah point is there is a town between dave and plus and its not possible to work with whoever it is because one isnt around (i understand if youre busy, but that does not change the fact) and the other one straight up isnt trying. the fact that plus had mixed replacements up all the way to mylo is honestly a bit ridiculous

[Hectic]

hectic is also very good scum and can capitualise on my misplays as n3 tracker. I could have easily guiltied lurker!dave for the easy win if I was scum or could have guiltied plus following my trajectories throughout the game.

Completely ignoring that she could be scum with Dave lol

Also, why do you think I'm good at scum? You've only seen town!me.