Mini 627 - Riverworld Smalltown - Over!!!

[Cyberbob]

No, I mean in terms of the fact that pretty much everyone sees him as town (except M4yhem, but whether or not he's simply grasping at straws remains to be seen).

If he turned out to be scum it would be pretty damn funny.

[armlx]

I can see it happening under the logic his PR makes it hard to make the normal non-town screw ups good townish scum tend to make sometimes.

[Alabaska J]

Who knew that posting two words a post would look so town.

Maybe I should try that next game…

[iamausername]

Can we lynch M4yhem please? He's totally the SK.

Not really bothered either way which of Alabaska and NabNab gets viged and which gets jailed, though obviously we need to make a public decision on that before anyone hammers.

[armlx]

Can we lynch M4yhem please? He's totally the SK.

I'm coming around to this based on his reaction.

I hate to flop around like this, but lynching M4yh3m is becoming more and more viable over Alabaska. I like lynch M4yh3m, vig NN right now (NN > Alabaska for 2 lives reason).

NO ONE should vote right now btw, just to avoid hammering on accident/ dumb hammers. Just use a VFos to make your intent clear.

Unvote, VFos M4yh3m

[Rishi]

Okay... somewhat caught up.

I'd be more likely to jump on the NabNab bandwagon or lynch Alabaska than m4yhem. I usually put emotional responses to a potential lynch in the town category.

[shaft.ed]

OK guys I've given this a bit more thought and it looks like three lynches are on the table:
1-Alabaska (generally strange play Day1 could be either scum)
2-NabNab (don't like his night choice at all, more likely mafia that made the kill)
3-Mayhem (unlikely mafia due to bus'ing, recent lynch avoidance instead of plan inspection feels SK)

So my generally thoughts are, the SK can easily be caught if he is jailed tonight. Thus it is better to attempt lynching the player that is highest likelihood mafia. Also, if the SK is jailed he will be a) caught and b) not able to submit a kill. Thus we are better off having our top SK suspect jailed and not vig'ed.

Therefore filling in the blanks by how I have run down players (maybe you disagree here) lynch should be NabNab, "jailed other guy" should be Mayhem and vig victim should be Alabaska. Let me know if this works out.

Also if we do end up catching the SK via jailing has anyone figured out how we can deal with the monkey wrench of having a live TSPN that is 50% odds on being scum?

Finally, if we do lynch scum, is it still the most viable strategy to have armlx "double vig" tonight?

[armlx]

I usually put emotional responses to a potential lynch in the town category.

Except doing so is extremely anti-town, as Appeal to Emotion is a pretty big logical fallacy that is exploited by scum a lot too.

Therefore filling in the blanks by how I have run down players (maybe you disagree here) lynch should be NabNab, "jailed other guy" should be Mayhem and vig victim should be Alabaska. Let me know if this works out.

This works too. I don't want NN alive on a night after Alabaska has died.

Also if we do end up catching the SK via jailing has anyone figured out how we can deal with the monkey wrench of having a live TSPN that is 50% odds on being scum?

It doesn't seem like its that hard to deal with.

[Alabaska J]

Finally, if we do lynch scum, is it still the most viable strategy to have armlx "double vig" tonight?

This needs to be discussed. I think so, though.

[armlx]

I don't see what changes that doesn't make it viable. We are likely to lynch those 2 people anyways, so why not?

[curiouskarmadog]

Official Vote Count

(Page 39, Day 2)

NabakovNabakovob

- 4 (M4yhem, Alabaska J, Cyberbob)

M4yhem

- 2 (iamausername, TheSweatpantsNinja)

shafted

- 1 (Claus)

Not Voting:

Rishi, NabakovNabakovob, shafted, armlx

Note: Deadline 09/08 2:00pm EST. With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch, 5 is a no lynch

[shaft.ed]

OK a couple last scenarios I'd like to analyze.

If SK is jailed how do we find the mafia:
If there is 1 NK, day opens with six players. TSPN claims a SK target, it must be truthful because if he lies he is outed as scum. SK is lynched we go to night phase with 4-1. The jailed player is confirmed not mafia if a NK went through. armlx/Rishi/IAUN are confirmed not mafia since the only way they were not actually tracked is if Cyberbob lied, something town would have no reason to do. Thus one of TSPN or Cyberbob must be the remaining mafia member, they can therefore not kill one another. From here the town autowins by jailing TSPN and Cyberbob each night and lynching them the following day(s). If there is no night kill same scenario town autowins.

If we lynch scum is there a benefit in holding back on armlx's vig'ing:
1) We lynch mafia: If our lynch target is mafia then we can trust Cyberbob's tracking as SK would not likely risk faking results and getting lynched. Thus none of armlx, IAUN or TSPN is the remaining SK. If armlx vig's me and Alabaska then the day opens with either:
---1 NK: Claus and Mayhem are alive and confirmed town. One of Rishi/armlx/IAUN/TSPN are alive and confirmed town (likely TSPN will be killed) and Cyberbob is likely to be alive as the only non-confirmed player and thus the most likely SK.
---2 no NK: Same scenario occurs without a NK except one confirmed town player is alive. Again Cyberbob or Rishi have to be the SK. Game won for town.

2) We lynch SK: Basically works out as above. The only way we can't trust Cyberbob's tracking is if he's mafia, and if he's mafia then the other players are cleared anyway. Thus either Cyberbob catches Rishi making a NK (which would be confirmed by IAUN and Claus anyway) or Cyberbob get's lynch clearing the last innocent.


So in conclusion it appears the armlx vig'ing me and Alabaska will only be an issue if both the SK and the mafia are contained within the group of Rishi, armlx, IAUN and Cyberbob. Even here the town has about 50%+ odds of winning.

Actually I think the worst possible scenario may be if we jail the mafia and the SK is left free to roam about. Did I run that scenario yet? Bah...

[M4yhem]

m4yh3m, you attacked Pug after he was already pointed at. Claus has actively scum hunted through a PR all game.

I got Pug lynched. That wasn't exactly easy. And I've scum-hunted as much as I can- I'd be a lot more prolific if all I had to do was post "178- bussing?" now and then.

Also, I am showing why you are the optimal lynch. Evidence you are scum is not needed.

Of course it's needed! You want to vig Alabaska because 'people suspect him'- that's how you decided to kill Shafted too. So if you want to kill me, you still need a proper reason. We're still playing mafia, after all.

If Claus is scum it can be dealt with easier then the double vote or absorbing 2 lives.

But he either is or isn’t scum. Preparing for hypothetical situations is all very well but at most 2 of these roles are scum. How about dealing with reality for a while?

No, I mean in terms of the fact that pretty much everyone sees him as town (except M4yhem, but whether or not he's simply grasping at straws remains to be seen).

I still see him as town just

not as townie as me

. He’s 88%, I’m 100%. To me, anyway.

You’re 45%, fyi.

Can we lynch M4yhem please? He's totally the SK.

Proof or bite me.

I'm coming around to this based on his reaction.

I really hate the meta that having a survival instinct is scummy.
I have certain expectations of my fellow townies. I understand and expect that if I play badly I will be lynched; however, I also expect that if I play well then I won’t be lynched, at least until I screw up. I played well yesterday. I did exactly what I’m supposed to do as a townie. I don’t think I screwed up today.

So naturally, I’m a little upset with the town currently.

Besides, you can’t blame me for being less than enthusiastic about the plan. It totally excludes me. Maybe we’ll win but I’ll be unable to help. And there’s no point in doing analysis because I’m only allowed to choose between two people and it doesn’t matter how scummy they are, only if their roles are dangerous.

So I’m sticking with Nabnab, you can all do what the hell you like and call me when my opinion actually matters again.

[shaft.ed]

Mayhem, do you realize you signed up for a smalltown game? This kind of thing can happen in smalltowns.

Also I think I've uncovered the WCS of our plan, I'm not sure I want to share it though because it might not be obvious to the scum parties. I will run the numbers on it and see if I think the odds of it occuring and the odds of town loss in such a circumstance outweigh the other benefits of what we've already discussed.

[M4yhem]

Mayhem, do you realize you signed up for a smalltown game? This kind of thing can happen in smalltowns.

I've never played a smalltown before. I replaced in because the flavor looked cool and there was an acceptable number of pages to read.

[Rishi]

Okay, fully caught up. I think I'm on board with the plan. I'm not sure we should abandon traditional scumhunting just to figure out from the night choices who is scum and who isn't, but I've never played a Smalltown game before, so since a lot of people are on board and they can't all be scum, then I suppose we should stick with it.

However, if a NabNab lynch is just as good as a m4yhem lynch, at least m4yhem is fighting to stay alive, which is what town should do. I don't see what NabNab is saying in his defense.

[M4yhem]

Nab's away, Rishi.

It's true that not everybody in favor of the plan can bescum but they can all be wrong/confused.

[armlx]

---2 no NK: Same scenario occurs without a NK except one confirmed town player is alive. Again Cyberbob or Rishi have to be the SK. Game won for town.

TSPN is alive. GG SK.

Of course it's needed! You want to vig Alabaska because 'people suspect him'- that's how you decided to kill Shafted too. So if you want to kill me, you still need a proper reason. We're still playing mafia, after all.

You are suspect by process of elimination.

But he either is or isn’t scum. Preparing for hypothetical situations is all very well but at most 2 of these roles are scum. How about dealing with reality for a while?

Except reality is pretty irrelevant right now as we have a large set of confirmed innocents and a large amount of kills to use

You’re 45%, fyi.

Lulz.

I really hate the meta that having a survival instinct is scummy.

Only when it conflicts with the interests of the town AKA finding scum.

However, if a NabNab lynch is just as good as a m4yhem lynch, at least m4yhem is fighting to stay alive, which is what town should do. I don't see what NabNab is saying in his defense.

But he is not using a logical defense at all.

[iamausername]

The thought has recently occured to me that NabNab will be just as able to confirm my jailkeep on him as Claus; if he attempts to absorb a dead role, he'll know he was blocked if he doesn't get it.

If the rest of you are happy to treat me as confirmed town anyway, this is irrelevant, but if not, it's a further point in favour of a M4yhem lynch-by-process-of-elimination.

And, just to be totally sure;

Mod, if the player tracked by the tracker has two targets that night (either due to motivation or because they're the SK), will the tracker be told both of these targets?

[armlx]

The thought has recently occured to me that NabNab will be just as able to confirm my jailkeep on him as Claus; if he attempts to absorb a dead role, he'll know he was blocked if he doesn't get it.

CKD hasn't answered my question about it.

Mod, if NabNab is jail kept a night when he tries to absorb an ability, will he be successful in getting the ability?

[curiouskarmadog]

Mod, if the player tracked by the tracker has two targets that night (either due to motivation or because they're the SK), will the tracker be told both of these targets?

yes

Mod, if NabNab is jail kept a night when he tries to absorb an ability, will he be successful in getting the ability?

I thought the question was answered (shafted). No, jailing comes first...he cant target or be targetted after that.

[armlx]

I thought the question was answered (shafted). No, jailing comes first...he cant target or be targetted after that.

Didn't realize he was right. Ok then, seems good.

[shaft.ed]

OK so I've run over the plan numerous times. It seems the most dangerous situation is if Cyberbob was mafia lying about an investigation result that inadverantly clears SKarmlx or SKIAUN last night. While that is possible, even in that situation town has about a 2/3rds shot of lynching scum tommorow if my number are correct.

I'm ready to go ahead with the plan. I would however like NabNab to get back and weigh in on it.

Also Mayhem, while in most situations "scum-hunting" is better than set up discussion, here the town has a very decent chance of auto-winning. It would be much more productive if you were to analyze the plan than to just shout "why isn't anybody scumhuning?"

[armlx]

Anyways, back to where I started.

Unvote, Vote M4yh3m

Shaft.ed hides with Alabaska, etc.

[shaft.ed]

Anyways, back to where I started.

Unvote, Vote M4yh3m

Shaft.ed hides with Alabaska, etc.

Mayhem over Nab because he's more likely SK? I've already covered why I'm not so keen on keeping Nab around.