mystery box of silver 10. (done)

[Titus]

@Mathblade, You're running yourself ragged trying to avoid the conclusion scum were shopping for a counterwagon and failed.

Logically, gamma could not have been a planned bus because only Pickaxe Pete could be early army on the wagon.

If you read my post carefully I agree, planned bus was impossible based on claims. However I don’t see the evidence of a scum aiming for a counter wagon. I looked at the people on the wagon and a majority of the scum would have to be on Ban All Hydras.

I just don’t see that as viable based on my read.

That's also incorrect. Scum weren't sitting on one counterwagon alone, given the multitude that sprung up.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

[MathBlade]

I also object to the classification “running ragged” to avoid the conclusion.

None of that is opinion except how I processed the data. The fact the wagon was 3P driven if 3P claims are true.

[Titus]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Can you clarify this? I read it multple times and it sounds like you're implying the Gamma wagon wasn't good.

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade, You're running yourself ragged trying to avoid the conclusion scum were shopping for a counterwagon and failed.

Logically, gamma could not have been a planned bus because only Pickaxe Pete could be early army on the wagon.

If you read my post carefully I agree, planned bus was impossible based on claims. However I don’t see the evidence of a scum aiming for a counter wagon. I looked at the people on the wagon and a majority of the scum would have to be on Ban All Hydras.

I just don’t see that as viable based on my read.

That's also incorrect. Scum weren't sitting on one counterwagon alone, given the multitude that sprung up.

A multitude didnt spring up. They were there already.

Check the VC again Titus. Scum were inactive/ineffective.

[Tayl0r Swift]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Can you clarify this? I read it multple times and it sounds like you're implying the Gamma wagon wasn't good.

it hit scum (probably?). in that sense it was good. but the wagon itself i thought was bad at the time. i never understood why it was so quick to form, why there were no counterwagons, except on BH who was even townier, or what the reasons for the wagon were to begin with.

[Titus]

@Mathblade, You're running yourself ragged trying to avoid the conclusion scum were shopping for a counterwagon and failed.

Logically, gamma could not have been a planned bus because only Pickaxe Pete could be early army on the wagon.

If you read my post carefully I agree, planned bus was impossible based on claims. However I don’t see the evidence of a scum aiming for a counter wagon. I looked at the people on the wagon and a majority of the scum would have to be on Ban All Hydras.

I just don’t see that as viable based on my read.

That's also incorrect. Scum weren't sitting on one counterwagon alone, given the multitude that sprung up.

A multitude didnt spring up. They were there already.

Check the VC again Titus. Scum were inactive/ineffective.

Scum were. Whenever they'd get on a counterwagon, it died most likely. Scum tried to get counters but town (or town plus 3p if semantic) had synergized.

Now, rather than bicker about theory, let's talk about reads.

I will agree you make a decent point to bump down Pickaxe Pete though.

[Pickaxe Pete]

hunting 3p is a pro-scum move

Are you talking this game or in general?

[Nero Cain]

both

[Nero Cain]

like, I do understand that others could be paranoid about our claims but hunting 3p instead of army is either stupid or scummy.

[Pickaxe Pete]

im counting a50 and SB. Even if they do win with the town I feel like anything that's not TOWN is scum. There are those that say that a 3p that can win with town aren't scum but I don't really buy into that philosophy.

my thoughts on 3p always being scum despite being able to win with town are consistent throughout my time on site.

imagine thinking that a claimed 3p is town.

superbowl and a50 but they win with the town and ONLY the town, they promise.

Queue your claim:

I feel like you and april and whomever pushing us has a good chance of being scum b/c hunting 3p is a pro-scum move.

[Something_Smart]

"i didn't check the TOWN wincon" as opposed to "i didn't check MY wincon"

Why should I drag my alignment into this? The town wincon is available for everyone to see.

[Tayl0r Swift]

in a shocking development, the 3p wants us to not look at the 3p.

[Something_Smart]

I don't understand why you think one way of phrasing is more likely from one alignment than the other. They are equivalent.

[Bell]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Can you clarify this? I read it multple times and it sounds like you're implying the Gamma wagon wasn't good.

it hit scum (probably?). in that sense it was good. but the wagon itself i thought was bad at the time. i never understood why it was so quick to form, why there were no counterwagons, except on BH who was even townier, or what the reasons for the wagon were to begin with.

Gamma's played with a lot of people. Meta. He really does omgus and self-wagon analyze way more as town than he did when he got here.

[Titus]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Can you clarify this? I read it multple times and it sounds like you're implying the Gamma wagon wasn't good.

it hit scum (probably?). in that sense it was good. but the wagon itself i thought was bad at the time. i never understood why it was so quick to form, why there were no counterwagons, except on BH who was even townier, or what the reasons for the wagon were to begin with.

I think you and I have a different standard for counterwagons.

This post comes from someone who recognizes they are on the outside.

Talk to me about your reads a bit. Who do you want to eliminate (aside from shellyc)?

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade, You're running yourself ragged trying to avoid the conclusion scum were shopping for a counterwagon and failed.

Logically, gamma could not have been a planned bus because only Pickaxe Pete could be early army on the wagon.

If you read my post carefully I agree, planned bus was impossible based on claims. However I don’t see the evidence of a scum aiming for a counter wagon. I looked at the people on the wagon and a majority of the scum would have to be on Ban All Hydras.

I just don’t see that as viable based on my read.

That's also incorrect. Scum weren't sitting on one counterwagon alone, given the multitude that sprung up.

A multitude didnt spring up. They were there already.

Check the VC again Titus. Scum were inactive/ineffective.

Scum were. Whenever they'd get on a counterwagon, it died most likely. Scum tried to get counters but town (or town plus 3p if semantic) had synergized.

Now, rather than bicker about theory, let's talk about reads.

I will agree you make a decent point to bump down Pickaxe Pete though.

My reads are based on theory. So if you don’t understand my theory you won’t understand my reads. Because you’ve got a lot of people as scum the VCA doesn’t support. If you assume Pickaxe Pete is scum that’s in the inactive/ineffective column not the shopping for counter wagon as Pete’s never moved.

I kinda think I am getting into the groove.

[Something_Smart]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Definitionally, 100% of the time.

But plenty of things look like scumslips that aren't.

Presumably you're asking "what percentage of alleged scumslips are real scumslips", which I would estimate at around 4%.

[MathBlade]

i think the SS wagon (other than the scumslip) is about as good as the gamma wagon yesterday. that is to say, i think its not good. and how often do scumslips actually come from scum?

Can you clarify this? I read it multple times and it sounds like you're implying the Gamma wagon wasn't good.

it hit scum (probably?). in that sense it was good. but the wagon itself i thought was bad at the time. i never understood why it was so quick to form, why there were no counterwagons, except on BH who was even townier, or what the reasons for the wagon were to begin with.

I think you and I have a different standard for counterwagons.

This post comes from someone who recognizes they are on the outside.

Talk to me about your reads a bit. Who do you want to eliminate (aside from shellyc)?

Something Smart, maaaybe Golden Paradox but that one is a stretch. I mainly have a lot of townreads atm.

[Bell]

@Mathblade:
What theory?
I have like 4 empirical bits of data that are reliable and unlikely to change but a theory seems a little far off.

[Pickaxe Pete]

Spoiler: followupVC not colored mobile

breaking a bone is basically nothing

vote count 1.4

Gamma Emerald (8):

Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete, Menalque, Titus, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina, Morning Mage

Ban Hydras (6):

PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Christøpher, Nero Cain, samantha97, Gamma Emerald

NorwegianboyEE (3):

Almost50, DrDolittle, TheGoldenParadox

Menalque (1):

jjh927

Almost50 (1):

Vecna

April Ludgate (1):

EchoVision

DiamondSentinel (1):

Tayl0r Swift

not voting (2):

April Ludgate, Bell

with 23 alive, it takes 12 to Execute someones Ass. day 1 ends october 24th at 13:30 central US time; in (expired on 2020-10-24 13:30:00)

mod notes

• Christøpher has requested replacement
  
• 1615: good

[/area]

Almost50 a 3P leaves
Nero leaves

Mastina and Morning Mage enter the wagon.

This leaves Morning Mage and Pickaxe Pete as only potential army on the wagon.

On the Ban all hydras wagon added Nero Sam and GE
Nero is 3P who floated between the wagons
GE was voting the biggest wagon other than himself.

So we’re left with Plus DS Christopher (who I think is Chemist) and Samantha (scully I think)

Rule of three says there’s likely a scum somewhere in this list.

However again none of these were really pushing the wagons iirc (please correct me if I am wrong)
Based on tone this didn’t seem like a scum driven wagon either.

So this game seems to be driven by NT players.

This jives with my 2-8 out of no where scum bus just it was NT.

There's no such thing as a rule of three outside of what titus would call moon logic.

[Something_Smart]

If anything, 3520 is scum indicative because it equates being not town with being scum when that clearly isn't the case.

[Nero Cain]

in a shocking development, the 3p wants us to not look at the 3p.

fmpov its no different than town being calling scum and saying that you shouldn't lynch me b/c its a mislynch.

[MathBlade]

@Mathblade:
What theory?
I have like 4 empirical bits of data that are reliable and unlikely to change but a theory seems a little far off.

Not a theory but wagon theory.

The wagon theory says scum were ineffective/useless and not pushing the counter wagon.

Titus and I deviate here. I am guessing it’s because she’s 3P and wants to control it like she is town. So she’s trying to label herself as town to reach the conclusion she did. However as she’s claimed 3P the data doesn’t support it. It would maybe be a possibility if she was town but not 3P.

[Titus]

Town	Titus Plusjoyed Diamond Sentinel Nero Cain shellyc A50 Ban Hydras mastina Menalque
Above Null	NorweiganboyEE The Golden Paradox superbowl9 Bell
Null	DrDolittle something_smart Mathblade jjh927
Lean Scum	Chemist1422 April Ludgate Morning Mage Pickaxe Pete
Scum	Tayl0r Swift

A planned bus doesn't generate four counters. Scum would abandon the bus.

I have realistically 8 names that could be scum. I'm cutting off at above null right now. That needs to have 4 scum.

Can you look at your notes and see who overlaps?

@Math, Pete couldn't move to a counter without losing the towncred.

Second, if scum are in the ineffectives...that points to SS, jjh... DDL...and you.

I am pretty sure Pickaxe moves to Taylor level based on today's developments.