mystery box of silver 10. (done)


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Post Post #3675 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by TheGoldenParadox »

if it was loyal mod and you did get it it'd confirm you as town if plus was town

but it's not, and you didn't
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Post Post #3676 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by PlusJOYED »

im pretty sure this means shelly is town.
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Post Post #3677 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by Tayl0r Swift »

In post 3670, shellyc wrote:
In post 3667, TheGoldenParadox wrote:if she's scum, she knows there's either a loyal or a disloyal modifier. since she must have received something, and she knows that plusjoyed isn't aligned with her, she would say she didn't receive anything
there's a flaw
if its scum!me + loyal mod I would not have gotten anything
yeah but as scum you know to claim the opposite of the truth, probably. at worst its 50-50
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Post Post #3678 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:59 pm

Post by TheGoldenParadox »

In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
i think trusting or giving any weight to gamma's rants is a terrible idea here why would he have any incentive to tell the truth
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Post Post #3679 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:00 pm

Post by PlusJOYED »

they didn't know it was disloyal
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Post Post #3680 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:00 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 3676, PlusJOYED wrote:im pretty sure this means shelly is town.
My bet is she is too based on the situation.
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Post Post #3681 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:01 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
That’s one theory. I am toying with 3P merry go round and no group scum.

It kinda makes more sense with what Almost50 said your win con was.

If I am right your win con is (paraphrase) “eliminate all threats to town and have one town player standing or be the last three standing” (hunch) this lends itself more to a merry go round than it does group scum. Because each of the 3P groups would consider your 3P group a threat to town.
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Post Post #3682 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:03 pm

Post by TheGoldenParadox »

In post 3679, PlusJOYED wrote:they didn't know it was disloyal
scum shelly would have deduced it was disloyal upon getting the invention
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Post Post #3683 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:03 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3679, PlusJOYED wrote:they didn't know it was disloyal
No they didn’t.

Imagine if Shelly is scum.

What is easier to guess?
“I got nothing”
Or
“I got fruit”

No one would expect the cop check.

It’s inherently easier to guess “got nothing” and hope it works out
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Post Post #3684 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:03 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 3678, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
i think trusting or giving any weight to gamma's rants is a terrible idea here why would he have any incentive to tell the truth
Ok. Don't trust his rants.

Either 4 plus SK or 5 plus vig.
Vigs are usually negative utility and will shoot the town or 3p most likely. SK has no incentive to shoot 3p and is even more imbalanced for scum.
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Post Post #3685 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:04 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3680, Titus wrote:
In post 3676, PlusJOYED wrote:im pretty sure this means shelly is town.
My bet is she is too based on the situation.
Which means we have two town with pants down and nothing to show for it.
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Post Post #3686 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:05 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3684, Titus wrote:
In post 3678, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
i think trusting or giving any weight to gamma's rants is a terrible idea here why would he have any incentive to tell the truth
Ok. Don't trust his rants.

Either 4 plus SK or 5 plus vig.
Vigs are usually negative utility and will shoot the town or 3p most likely. SK has no incentive to shoot 3p and is even more imbalanced for scum.
Agreed. I think 3P merry go round is much more logical. 4-5 scum vs 6 “masons” seems wrong. (Masons in quotes because not actual masons)
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Post Post #3687 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:06 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 3685, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3680, Titus wrote:
In post 3676, PlusJOYED wrote:im pretty sure this means shelly is town.
My bet is she is too based on the situation.
Which means we have two town with pants down and nothing to show for it.
Hardly, the resistance to townfirm shelly is a tell in a way. No one highlighted these problems before. Now that the results are in, there's a flaw with the process. That's telling.
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Post Post #3688 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:06 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 3686, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3684, Titus wrote:
In post 3678, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
i think trusting or giving any weight to gamma's rants is a terrible idea here why would he have any incentive to tell the truth
Ok. Don't trust his rants.

Either 4 plus SK or 5 plus vig.
Vigs are usually negative utility and will shoot the town or 3p most likely. SK has no incentive to shoot 3p and is even more imbalanced for scum.
Agreed. I think 3P merry go round is much more logical. 4-5 scum vs 6 “masons” seems wrong. (Masons in quotes because not actual masons)
So you're claiming the masons are actually groupscum?
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Post Post #3689 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:07 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3687, Titus wrote:
In post 3685, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3680, Titus wrote:
In post 3676, PlusJOYED wrote:im pretty sure this means shelly is town.
My bet is she is too based on the situation.
Which means we have two town with pants down and nothing to show for it.
Hardly, the resistance to townfirm shelly is a tell in a way. No one highlighted these problems before. Now that the results are in, there's a flaw with the process. That's telling.
Not really. I was silent even though I saw a flaw because I didn’t want to ruin the reaction in case it caught Shelly. Making lemonade out of lemons.
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Post Post #3690 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:08 pm

Post by PlusJOYED »

tbh i misunderstood my role until it was too late
i thought i would know if the check would go through or not until it already happened
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Post Post #3691 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:08 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3688, Titus wrote:
In post 3686, MathBlade wrote:
In post 3684, Titus wrote:
In post 3678, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
In post 3674, Titus wrote:
In post 3663, MathBlade wrote:23 scum means minimum 12 town.
Assume all 3P claims are 3P that means 18 total.
23 at start means 4 scum + SK or 5 scum and town Vig
Or
We’re looking at 3P go round and round alignment go round
5 scum and a vig is my bet. It fits with Gamma's rants perfectly. 4 scum with 3 players (in two sets) who will never vote each other is two small.
i think trusting or giving any weight to gamma's rants is a terrible idea here why would he have any incentive to tell the truth
Ok. Don't trust his rants.

Either 4 plus SK or 5 plus vig.
Vigs are usually negative utility and will shoot the town or 3p most likely. SK has no incentive to shoot 3p and is even more imbalanced for scum.
Agreed. I think 3P merry go round is much more logical. 4-5 scum vs 6 “masons” seems wrong. (Masons in quotes because not actual masons)
So you're claiming the masons are actually groupscum?
No, I think that there’s a viable theory no group scum. That it’s just a bunch of 3Ps and town.
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Post Post #3692 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:10 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I am not confident enough to say that for certain. It might be just 4-5 scum v 6 “masons” but it seems wrong to me.
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Post Post #3693 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Titus »

@Math, If you don't think an Army is groupscum after a member literally confessed to being groupscum then I don't know what to say.
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Post Post #3694 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 3672, TheGoldenParadox wrote:if town would make you more likely to say you'd check your role pm imho
Why? That phrasing seems like unnecessary LAMIST. We are discussing the town wincon; this is something objective. We're not discussing my alignment, there's no reason for me to make it subjective when the town wincon is objective and available to all.

I will grant that a random person is probably slightly more likely to phrase it this way as scum than they would be as town. But I am not a random person, and something being slightly scum indicative is not the same as it being a scumslip.
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Post Post #3695 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

meanwhile, while you all argue Nero is vote parked on scum.
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edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #3696 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:12 pm

Post by April Ludgate »

In post 3639, PlusJOYED wrote:my full role is odd night disloyal alignment cop inventor.
on odd nights i can target someone. if they aren't town they become a cop
this makes a lot of sense with the "town but not town" mason. I wish they would have revealed this day 1 but whatevs.

This role and 6 masons, wtf, no.

Also, if Shelly is scum here who received the cop invention, they would know not to say it.

You and I should target the same player.
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Post Post #3697 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:13 pm

Post by Titus »

@@SS, Who is scum? I don't care about this slip argument.
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Post Post #3698 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:14 pm

Post by Titus »

In post 3695, Nero Cain wrote:meanwhile, while you all argue Nero is vote parked on scum.
Why is Taylor scum? I want her to be scum but my scumhunting is leading me a different way.
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Post Post #3699 (ISO) » Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:15 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 3693, Titus wrote:@Math, If you don't think an Army is groupscum after a member literally confessed to being groupscum then I don't know what to say.
I mean. You’re taking gamma at his word after he outed “not town” aligned.

Pretty sure that’s spelled sucker. It may be truthful but could be manipulation when he knows he is gonna die. It can’t be taken at face value.
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