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[duppin]

Shelly has lied several times, she has been hypocritical, she has been inconsistent and illogical. I can provide proof of all of this, but what is the point when you are just going to dismiss it as "lol shelly so scummy but my gut says you"? You should be concerned that I could be scum trying to manipulate you which is why I have been advocating all along for you to do your own evaluation but you aren't doing it even though I keep calling you out for it

[duppin]

By the way and this is WIFOM I understand, but if me and hectic were scum this would have been an easy win since the team that was initially pushed yesterday was me + dave so all hectic had to do was bus me, kill shelly, lim dave and game would have been over.
There is no motivation for hectic to side with me if we were partners and claim unless he is super impatient especially not when he was being UTR and the only one calling him out in mylo was me.

[PlusJOYED]

plus you also realise that shelly actually slipped right? she knew dave would vote with her for no apparent reason.

where was this, please quote
I have evaluated you duppin. You're either scum or a pretty scummy townie.

[PlusJOYED]

that's also a good point. i think it'd be fishy if he lived as obvtown till lylo tho

[duppin]

plus you also realise that shelly actually slipped right? she knew dave would vote with her for no apparent reason.

where was this, please quote
I have evaluated you duppin. You're either scum or a pretty scummy townie.

Then explain why I am a scummy townie?

and she did it in 3985 and also in 4016

[duppin]

that's also a good point. i think it'd be fishy if he lived as obvtown till lylo tho

it would not because if you limmed me then shelly would be 100% confirmed town (unless some weird mylo SvS bus) in which case she would be killed over him and then he just needs to mislim dave

[duppin]

Ultimately her whole sentiment for today is a slip: she has not ever evaluated dave and does not mention him but is 100% confident that dave is voting with her. If she was town she would be trying to evaluate dave and make sure that he is siding with her, but she already knows for some reason

[PlusJOYED]

i feel like your posts have been more pushing an agenda rather than solving like most of this game. I just haven't seen a solvy mindset from you.

[duppin]

She approached you yesterday and engaged with you, but did not attempt to solve dave. Do you think that is a town mindset? Especially when she tried to push me + dave initially and obviously wanted to lim me first.
Compare that to me, hectic and UNO who were all trying to reach out to dave several times to get him to take a stance. It makes no sense for her as town to not be concerned at all regarding the stance of a slot who has been so inactive. The most logical explanation is simply that they are partners.

[duppin]

i feel like your posts have been more pushing an agenda rather than solving like most of this game. I just haven't seen a solvy mindset from you.

What agenda would that be?

[PlusJOYED]

So the Hectic claim changes the picture somewhat but I'll discuss Shelly without that.

Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill. With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills. I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.

From a fake claim point of view, this is an obviously horrible claim.

The

fake claim to make in this position to get a fake guilty is a

watch on the semi-conf player

. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam with daytalk would not hash out a fake claim and make the strategically best claim possible. Fake claiming a track guilty suffers right from the start because it's the investigation type that is statistically least likely to hit prior to getting down to one scum left. In this situation any fake claim that's going to result in lengthy discussion is a massively bad idea.

For balance purposes, if it's a true claim then mafia might have a ninja. The balance that has been revealed so far shows complementary roles, with a mafia doc to complement gunsmith, and weak FN to give a guilty where the gunsmith fails. The rolestopper would reduce the probability of other roles being successful without interfering with NK.

Shelly's handling of Duppin's response was weird, which I already pointed out. You'd think that as either alignment she'd look at what might defeat the role and be prepared for it. As scum she might be prepared for an admission that Duppin did indeed visit Bugs, and have rebuttal prepared for that. Scum!Shelly preparation for Duppin saying he didn't visit should be to just press the case. The "tracker miller" idea shouldn't ever enter her head as scum planning ahead. It shouldn't enter her head as town either, a town tracker is expecting a positive result to be either a TPR visiting or scum. So while it's very weird, I don't think that episode really means anything other than she's a very impulsive player who blurts out thoughts with little or no filtering.

Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included.

this is pretty indicative of dave siding with shelly. I think what you linked is a pretty big misrep of shelly duppin.

[duppin]

So the Hectic claim changes the picture somewhat but I'll discuss Shelly without that.

Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill. With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills. I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.

From a fake claim point of view, this is an obviously horrible claim.

The

fake claim to make in this position to get a fake guilty is a

watch on the semi-conf player

. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam with daytalk would not hash out a fake claim and make the strategically best claim possible. Fake claiming a track guilty suffers right from the start because it's the investigation type that is statistically least likely to hit prior to getting down to one scum left. In this situation any fake claim that's going to result in lengthy discussion is a massively bad idea.

For balance purposes, if it's a true claim then mafia might have a ninja. The balance that has been revealed so far shows complementary roles, with a mafia doc to complement gunsmith, and weak FN to give a guilty where the gunsmith fails. The rolestopper would reduce the probability of other roles being successful without interfering with NK.

Shelly's handling of Duppin's response was weird, which I already pointed out. You'd think that as either alignment she'd look at what might defeat the role and be prepared for it. As scum she might be prepared for an admission that Duppin did indeed visit Bugs, and have rebuttal prepared for that. Scum!Shelly preparation for Duppin saying he didn't visit should be to just press the case. The "tracker miller" idea shouldn't ever enter her head as scum planning ahead. It shouldn't enter her head as town either, a town tracker is expecting a positive result to be either a TPR visiting or scum. So while it's very weird, I don't think that episode really means anything other than she's a very impulsive player who blurts out thoughts with little or no filtering.

Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included.

this is pretty indicative of dave siding with shelly. I think what you linked is a pretty big misrep of shelly duppin.

No it is not and I even referenced this post:
Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included

He believes shellys claim from an analysis of the setup because there are no other PR claims, he hasn't evaluated hectics claim yet

[PlusJOYED]

She approached you yesterday and engaged with you, but did not attempt to solve dave. Do you think that is a town mindset? Especially when she tried to push me + dave initially and obviously wanted to lim me first.
Compare that to me, hectic and UNO who were all trying to reach out to dave several times to get him to take a stance. It makes no sense for her as town to not be concerned at all regarding the stance of a slot who has been so inactive. The most logical explanation is simply that they are partners.

why focus dave when she got a track on you

[duppin]

She approached you yesterday and engaged with you, but did not attempt to solve dave. Do you think that is a town mindset? Especially when she tried to push me + dave initially and obviously wanted to lim me first.
Compare that to me, hectic and UNO who were all trying to reach out to dave several times to get him to take a stance. It makes no sense for her as town to not be concerned at all regarding the stance of a slot who has been so inactive. The most logical explanation is simply that they are partners.

why focus dave when she got a track on you

It's not about focusing Dave, it is about evaluating the players like she did with everyone else. She reached out to you to see where your head was. She did not attempt to each out to Dave to find out where he was at.

[duppin]

If you are town then you want to know where everyone is at. Look at UNO since he is the confirmed townie from yesterday, he did the exact same thing. Was trying to look at it from everyones perspective to get a sense of the game state.
Shelly has never been concerned about Dave not voting with her since hectic claimed - sure if she believes the world is hectic and me she believes dave is town, but why would she be so confident that ti means dave would vote with her?

[PlusJOYED]

i looked through your early iso. Seems like you've been more pushing for mislims than solving. I also think your early hectic vote/post feels like scum theater.

[duppin]

i looked through your early iso. Seems like you've been more pushing for mislims than solving. I also think your early hectic vote/post feels like scum theater.

But you have pushed way more mislims than me? ironically I was called out for not pushing reads day 1, so this seems like a weird read to have. If I was scum it would certainly not be for that

As for your scum theater I have no idea why you believe that to be scum theater to be honest, but I'm not sure I can really contest it too much as it is simply your opinion. I believe you are approaching it with confirmation bias though.

[PlusJOYED]

<--- thinking, not fence sitting. That guy's definitely not sitting on a fence.

dave how much longer will you finish thinking then...

are you producing the second coming of noraa's wall

this is actually a little sus to me considering dave did wallpost after this and referenced Noraa here.

[duppin]

By the way Plus I want you to acknowledge what hectic said in his case the previous day: it is a fact that shelly has lied. Based on your reads you seem to believe it is a towntell. Could you explain this?

[PlusJOYED]

I never said it was a towntell
stop freaking misrepping, it's getting on my nerves
i didn't like your push on taylor either
I looked through shelly and dave iso and their equity is really high. Shelly really didn't talk to dave much at all. Shelly is scummier than I thought.
another thing is that hectic thought I was the "key" to getting the town win
like in the duppin/hectic scum world, they only need to convince 1 person to win (besides shelly). If they were scum I think they'd put more effort on getting dave to vote shelly as well.

[PlusJOYED]

I also think if shelly was town here, they played pretty newbie (no offense), which I can believe. But I think a newbie day 3 tracker would've dropped some accidental hints on being a pr (even of its weak) but they really didn't. Hectic revealing the bugspray softconf seems pretty town indicative. And looking back, BM crumbed pretty hard on being a weak role "if i die tonight, noraa is scum" day 1. In a world with Hectic scum and they have a doctor whose purpose is to decieve probably the weak TFN and gunsmith, I think duppin/hectic would have a very high chance of realizing that they should have noraa doc BM. But that didn't happen.

Shelly also seemed to want to kill noraa desperately day 2.

I think it's probably dave/shellyc

[duppin]

I never said it was a towntell
stop freaking misrepping, it's getting on my nerves
i didn't like your push on taylor either
I looked through shelly and dave iso and their equity is really high. Shelly really didn't talk to dave much at all. Shelly is scummier than I thought.
another thing is that hectic thought I was the "key" to getting the town win
like in the duppin/hectic scum world, they only need to convince 1 person to win (besides shelly). If they were scum I think they'd put more effort on getting dave to vote shelly as well.

I was not trying to misrep you, I said that based on your reads (you seem to believe shelly is town) it would indirectly also seem imply you thought it was a town or well perhaps a not alignment indicative thing to do. I suppose I could have phrased it differently, but I don't believe I was misrepping you I am more so trying to engage your read on shelly.

Look I'll take a break and get back to this later, but I appreciate you actually iso diving, feel free to point out anything you dislike about my slot and ill get back to it

[duppin]

okay i just read your last post and perhaps i was a bit too quick as it does seem like you are trying to solve shelly as well now

[duppin]

anyway ill be back in a couple of hours

[PlusJOYED]

I don't know how long it'll take for dave to reappear. But I think there's just too much evidence indicating a shelly/dave team.
If this loses town the game, I'm sorry.
If the solve is actually hectic/duppin, then gg, you guys played well.

VOTE: shellyc