mystery box of silver 10: neighborhood (this is done)

Titus · Post Post #125 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:18 am

We should fit our theories to data rather than the other way. There is an implicit assumption scum have a face.

Titus · Post Post #126 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:48 am

The way Math did talk, it was like he knew April would flip town.

Almost50 · Post Post #127 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:07 pm

That is not the main issue I have with him. The main issue is his stubborn insistence on you revealing "everything" at once, when Math himself is a big advocate of "keeping pants on". This certainly doesn't go with that, and especially so when we have had a SCUM flip on D1, so the Town is certainly not in a bad position to justify such a demand.

Titus · Post Post #128 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:13 pm

Yeah he wants selective pants on. He starts from the presumption that town should keep their pants on. He starts from the supposition that we are scum to justify the pants coming off. Our refusal then indicates we're scumsiding. If he started from the proposition we were town, he would insist we keep our pants on.

He doesn't think of a tailored question.

The problem is, Math has displayed that exact stubbornness of town when he was on the outside. That's Stevens Universe. I can link you the game, but I think it's better off just taking my word for it.

Titus · Post Post #129 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:14 pm

Time for Drunk Titus to arrive. Excuse me while I go downstairs and grab a drink.

Titus · Post Post #130 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:34 pm

Hey, I'm deliberately redoing the VCs with the last bit of sobriety I will have. I'm deliberately leaving out the third mason from my colored VCs so I can copy and paste it without exposing them.

Almost50 · Post Post #131 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:35 pm

I was in SU2, but I hardly remember Math being in it, let alone what he did or how he flipped

Titus · Post Post #132 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:41 pm

Spoiler: Legend

Spoiler: Vote count 1.1

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2a – End of 34, top of 35

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3a – End of 58/Top of 59

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4a - End of 80/Top of 81

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.5

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.6

Spoiler: D1 End

Titus · Post Post #133 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:42 pm

In post 131, Almost50 wrote:I was in SU2, but I hardly remember Math being in it, let alone what he did or how he flipped

I'm talking about SU1 anyway. Will get link.

Titus · Post Post #134 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:47 pm

Shit. I found the game, and it's the wrong fucking game. My sober memory failed me. Crap. I know it's a varsoona hosted game, but that won't get me far. Fuck. I've been citing the wrong game in thread.

Almost50 · Post Post #135 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:56 pm

How come my name doesn't appear in your VCA at all????

Titus · Post Post #136 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:59 pm

Oh fuck I changed your name to superbowl9. There's two of them. Crap. Time to redo.

Titus · Post Post #137 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:08 pm

Spoiler: Legend

Spoiler: Vote count 1.1

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2a – End of 34, top of 35

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3a – End of 58/Top of 59

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4a - End of 80/Top of 81

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.5

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.6

Spoiler: D1 End

Here we go draft two.

Titus · Post Post #138 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:21 pm

The wagons make me really confused if shellyc is a good execute. I like her execute because her wagon was all town. I don't like her execute because shellyc and gamma were neighbors on the ban hydras wagon. I don't see scum getting that desperate to save gamma to double up like that given he was a one shot alien.

The question becomes if shellyc is town, then wtf were scum doing not to capitalize on an all town counterwagon to gamma? If shellyc is town, the scum have to be inactive and/or trapped on the gamma or ban hydras wagons.
There's no way in any universe that DS and Chemist are scum together because that would overload the Ban Hydras wagon and be breaking the neighbors "rule". Rule is in quotes because it's not perfect.

I don't see Bell being scum if shelly's town because he'd make a move and actually be present on the VCs. Bell was not a lurker at any point unless you call him an active lurker, which is fair given his VC non-presence. An active lurker would move to join the shellyc wagon if she's town though. So Bell isn't scum if shellyc is town most likely. If shellyc is scum, more focus needs to be paid to bell, vecna and something smart (by VCA I liked SS's recent posting though).

I don't think the Norway wagon is pure given the pure nature of the shellyc wagon. I'm looking at 1.5 for the record. My gut says Taylor's the scum there, regardless of shellyc alignment.

1.6 screams Chemist scum who is sheeping the fuck out of plusjoyed.

I don't see an influential scum or a face scum d1. Most of the votes seem sheepy in nature. I don't see a front end vote from scum, aside from the possibility of Pickaxe Pete on Gamma.

Titus · Post Post #139 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:24 pm

Based on what Drunk!Titus sees, scum lacked a face D1. They exerted zero influence on the thread whatsoever.

Given the ineffective nature of most of the scumteam, scum can't afford the 6 mason predicament and must attack. This weighs heavily in favor of a Math execute. A math execute being wrong almost surely ensures a group loss for our faction so we need more evidence than drunk!Titus VCA. It could be that scum still lack a face and Math is a townbeard. I hope the public cop checks Math just to resolve the issue.

If Math is town, I have zero idea on how to work with him given he haven't abandoned his controlling ways.

Titus · Post Post #140 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:45 pm

I don't think you're here A50. I has sads.

I need to type this up in a two worlds universe depending on shellyc alignment so I can answer mastina's question.

Almost50 · Post Post #141 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:53 pm

In post 138, Titus wrote:I don't like her execute because shellyc and gamma were neighbors on the ban hydras wagon.

I've voted right next to my scum p a dozen times before. The important thing is it was the CW to a Scum!Gamma's and BH flipped Green. I also note that she intended to bus, but when a CW sprung she switched quite easily.

I also note TGP didn't directly switch from BH to Gamma, so that isn't a bus (no need to weaken the CW on BH and NOT get town!cred for it), while Chemist & Diamond really look bad fir their quick switch after the BH wagon had already declined and it became apparent Gamma was going to flip anyway.

It makes sense to me 5that 4/5 scum were all on the CW back-to-back (and -again- I had done just that before to fool any VCA, although it was the whole team of 3 or 4 (can't remember exactly) all voting on the same wagon and all next to each other)

I don't see anything damning to Pickaxe from VCA (it's hard to think he jumped on Gamma that early and stayed the course, unless he was offline for the whole duration of the wagon forming >> CW forming >> CW declining)

Also worthy of note that if Scum have double kills (wild, I know, but remotely possible, maybe?) then then shot the two slots most spewed Town by virtue of Gamma pushing them.

Almost50 · Post Post #142 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:55 pm

I'll repeat: It;s not "desperate". It's SMART. It is done

exactly

to fool most VC analysts.

Almost50 · Post Post #143 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:56 pm

In post 138, Titus wrote:There's no way in any universe that DS and Chemist are scum together because that would overload the Ban Hydras wagon and be breaking the neighbors "rule". Rule is in quotes because it's not perfect.

Get ready to be surprised then, because "rules" are made to be broken.

Almost50 · Post Post #144 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:01 pm

Like, if I did everything "by the book" I'd be ridiculously transparent as either alignment. The reason I am hard to read for most players is I almost never follow "rules" regarding how to play as a certain alignment/role. I sometimes act reckless as a PR and sometimes appear reserved as a VT.

Like, the reason I claimed on D1 here was to try and bait the NK off PRs. I had proposed we do it at the start of the day in the PT, but sb thought it better be done towards the end to guage the game momentum and gather some natural reads first. I won't speak of MM because to this very moment I don't understand what they're doing exactly, but they're having fun and I don't want to spoil that so I'm letting them be.

Almost50 · Post Post #145 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:09 pm

In post 138, Titus wrote:My gut says Taylor's the scum there, regardless of shellyc alignment.

Tayl0r is Town unless I'm way way way misreading her. She's just one joyful soul who doesn't "appear" to take everything seriously, but does a good job obv!towning at the right time (see Werewolf where she did pretty well as Town) << This ended a few hours ago, btw, so now I can talk about it.

I even suspect she calls me scum from time to time to protect me from the scum NK. If you look close you'd see that she sometimes appear confident I am Town, and other times slings mud at me for no apparent reason. She would know better if she was Scum, and I suspect I would have been dead N1 if she was Scum because of how I did in Werewolf too.

Titus · Post Post #146 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:10 pm

Shit. This will take me a few readthroughs as I am pretty drunk. Love the effort. I also love that you haven't given up on us.

Almost50 · Post Post #147 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:13 pm

In post 139, Titus wrote:I hope the public cop checks Math just to resolve the issue.

Better yet, I hope Scum shoot him for us to settle things (and EVEN BETTER, if he is Scum and there's a Vig, I hope the Vig shoots him, because that doesn't only resolve the slot, but a red flip their clears the 6 of us)

P.S. I am using "red flip" by habit, but you know what I mean.

Titus · Post Post #148 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:14 pm

Reading the first couple paragraphs of your reply, I would love a chemist execute but it wouldn't leave info to follow. If we go this route, we need to threaten him or do something to get associations.

Still reading. Focus is hard. I am pretty shitcanned.

Titus · Post Post #149 (ISO) » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:16 pm

In post 141, Almost50 wrote:I don't see anything damning to Pickaxe from VCA (it's hard to think he jumped on Gamma that early and stayed the course, unless he was offline for the whole duration of the wagon forming >> CW forming >> CW declining)

That's precisely what I think and that he was stuck. He's veen pretty lurksacky.