Death Curse

[MURDERCAT]

Adorable is another name that has gotten heat

[Vaxkiller]

LLD's posts do look pretty town, quick glance at her voting looks genuine.

Thanks for your hot takes mudercat

[Hopkirk]

As the double replacement conditional post restricted townie, I'm conflicted about these changes. On the one hand, I can post properly. On the other hand, we're loosing Isis. On the other hand, we're getting Vax. On the other hand, I have more hands than I realized and that's pretty good tbh.
That role probably would have been better in a micro than a large tbh.

Vaguely aware there's some kind of wagon on me.

Ok, I see the so-called fake townslip. My first thought was that it was a joke post, but nowhere did they state that it was a joke post. At least from what I could read. So yeah, that makes it kind of scummy, especially with the link Pooky gave: (viewtopic.php?p=12236870#p12236870). I will abstain from voting for now though, with the wagon so close to being hammered and the day only 24 hours old.

This is probably scum.

LLD has several scummy posts
but some towny posts too
she's back to eh now

Your inability to read me is tilting me off the face of the earth.

I don't even know what meta bullshit game you are referencing to get this weird "tell" on me that wouldn;'t work even if I WAS SCUM (you moron)

but let me make this fucking really simple for you.

I'm going to die this game you fucking dummy. There's a 0 percent chance I live to endgame.

Fuck's sakes, like. How are you this dense?

Or is it this was a distraction or something?

IDFK

Yeah, you don't seem like a particularly fun person to play with based on this. I saw you had 200 posts, so hopefully they're not just all flinging abuse.

Frankly speaking - this game's a garbage so far.

To an extent of people openly claiming scum and getting away with that.

The lack of follow up here is scummy/too scummy to be scummy hm.

Shelly/Denek/Mush/LLD/Pooky/Taylor fairly obvtown as of p27.

[shellyc]

Mush looks like town, I think fidget looks like town, hot take is that taylor seems like town

ok these are good reads

I can see town murder

[Vaxkiller]

I'll read up more in a bit.... I want to look into pookiebear. Quick look at vote counts (altho few) it seems as the 1 band wagon was going away, pookie was quick to jump on another with LLD.

[shellyc]

LLD's posts do look pretty town, quick glance at her voting looks genuine.

consensus-er?

I was rather torn on your pred so give me those townvibes

fwiw vault has requested replacement and voting inactive doesn't help at all so ehhhh that iso doesn't really ping me either way

[shellyc]

This is probably scum.

isn't the pro scum play here to just. bus Noraa and get LLD and misdirect LLD

[shellyc]

I don't get scum motivation to sit on their hands on Noraa slot
they just bus Noraa with LLD impossible to marginalise now

isn't Lapsa a lurker as either align

[Hopkirk]

A decent part of my Zdenek townread, looking to be one of my spicier reads atm, is that blatantly bad 'we should do this strategy' style posts come from newbtown from a good place (which I get in the tone of their follow ups to me in regard to it), not newbscum trying to fake content.

Made it to page 15.

Bell, I feel like I should be town reading you, after pages 7,8. Could you say something that will make be not be concerned by you?

I think Swift is probably town, and I think that Noraa-Swift scum buddies would be shocking.

You don't get to use this excuse after you won that other scumgame against very competent players.

What was your opinion of that game - it was one of the few that I looked at since signing up for this one. My own impression was that Noraa’s win really was quite lucky. Also, LLD, can you clarify what was said on the discord server? Preferrably in a way that town!Noraa would be bound to agree with.

Hopkirk, what were those numbers anyway?

My top three scum reads are Noraa, Owen and Bell.

Numbers are something like this, I didn't check this so 1 might not add up right. If so just throw in a balancing β and we're fine.
0 = 15/20 * 14/19 * 13/18
1 = β or (15/20*14/19*5/18) + (5/20*14/18)+(15/20*4/19)
2 = 5/20 * 4/18

"I should be TRing Bell"
"proceeds to SR Bell"

inconsistency = bad

Are you for real with this and the flailing thing. I feel like you can’t be given the number of games you’ve played just from sheer blocks being knocked over after building them up.

Zdenek: I genuinely don’t know what you want me to say from that post. It just looks like you’re fence sitting.

Nope.

My top three scum reads are Noraa, Owen and Bell.

What's this all about?

UNOwen is here! Quick, get 'em!

UNOwen, I would like your opinions. All of them (that are relevant to the game). I would like them soon, because right now your slot is /content free/. Zero calories. No fat, sugar, artificial flavors, natural flavors. 100% empty.

I disagree my slot is content free. It has a juicy and filling Noraa scum read, I do not expect to vote elsewhere until she is cursed.
If there is something specific you'd like me to opine about, ask and I will provide.

This is the slot that needs flak for the Noraa scumread. Trying to give an image they've had that read from the start when I don't see anything I like on the progression post rvs. Scum Uno here can't unvote at that point and is locked in, but I haven't seen a sincere pivot or deepening of the read.

[shellyc]

Oh and also im starting to SR UNO rather hard rn

they're just floating around and their progression on Noraa looks rather bus-y

p-edit: wow hopkirk
you can read my mind
Hopkirk is so town

[shellyc]

A decent part of my Zdenek townread, looking to be one of my spicier reads atm, is that blatantly bad 'we should do this strategy' style posts come from newbtown from a good place (which I get in the tone of their follow ups to me in regard to it), not newbscum trying to fake content.

ehhhh

but the easiest way of fake content is a mech oriented approach

also this feels like a game which I can solve through PoE
murder/mush/Taylor/fidget/hopkirk
these are town slots

[MURDERCAT]

This is probably scum.

isn't the pro scum play here to just. bus Noraa and get LLD and misdirect LLD

This is what I feel like is happening with Pooky tbh. But this exactly why I want to just do Noraa and work off that. Like I said, let LLD work and sorry through it all later

[shellyc]

This is what I feel like is happening with Pooky tbh. But this exactly why I want to just do Noraa and work off that. Like I said, let LLD work and sorry through it all later

murder you're scum reading Pooky?

im slightly opinionated by the pooky-taylor and am gunna reread again there, because that's not giving me any TvT gutvibes

[shellyc]

but overall im still majorly town on Pooky for one of the pioneers of the Noraa wagon instead of someone like UNO, who is coasting it all through

[MURDERCAT]

murder you're scum reading Pooky?

It's more like there's a lot of worlds where Pooky is scum here, and I can see motivation for Pooky trying to get in early with me and LLD. Like I can easily see how Pooky could be scum, if that makes sense.

[MURDERCAT]

Also, FYI Pooky never gets the scroll today

[Vaxkiller]

This is probably scum.

isn't the pro scum play here to just. bus Noraa and get LLD and misdirect LLD

Im with Hopkirk, that was kinda scummy.

As far as scum using LLD, If they were smart, they would steer clear of that, but who says the scaum are smart? I guess it could go either way.

Sometimes I talk myself out of a thought.
sigh

[Vaxkiller]

@shellyc

Whos inactive and whos voting them?

[MURDERCAT]

As far as scum using LLD, If they were smart, they would steer clear of that

This is part of why I think Tayl0r is town

[Hopkirk]

I'm catching up in between work btw, so don't expect this to be super quick until I finish.

UNO i would like these names arranged in order of town -> scum
shellyc
Mushagana
isis
pooky
LLD
hopkirk

im getting major gut townvibes from hopkirk btw, based on the resistance to leashing, the pushing on noraa and reasonable TRs

LLD
MUSH
shellyc
Pooky
Hopkirk
Isis

insightful

why is mush that high though

Reeee why is this insightful.

The LLD read is a consensus read and not too out of place.
The Mush read is well-reasoned and logical
The Pooky read is fine since pooky/isis s/s is possible
I would like you to elaborate on hopkirk tho

Isn't this the exact order you wanted to hear though? You picked 4 people you thought were obvtown, one slight town, and one suspicious (all reads you'd said) then Uno's order didn't conflict with that at all. What was your logic behind those specific 6 being the listing?

They didn’t give a reason at the time of that post tho and no logic was provided.

Hopkirk I just have trouble reading through the rhymes because i’m not enjoying him like I usually would due to anhedonia.

Ohno, hope you're feeling betty soon

[UNOwen]

Nah, UNOwen, it improves town's chances. The values LLD put out are accurate: we kill scum once, twice, or not at all. There's only one possible world where we hit scum twice and only one possible world where we hit scum none. If we hit one scum every time we win before game over. So if we treat the middle player as conftown and work with them, there is no downside: we get to shape the final kill (because we hit town, maximizing chances of a hit on the third, which maximizes chances of hitting two scum if we were lucky with the first scroll-recipient) or we already hit scum (because only scum has no reason to work with us). The mechanics argument is good for improving best outcomes too, don't be too hard on it.

No I agree with that, treating 2nd scroll holder as town is fairly clearly the way to go.

My issue is specifically with the "let's kill Noraa but as the last in line" plan that has been proposed, or I guess more generally the "hit the scummiest player last" plan. What has been suggested is that by doing this we deny the scum the chance to choose a kill. It does not improve best outcome for this phase.

The best we can get is either:
Noraa!scum -> "night kill" -> scum
scum -> "night kill" -> Noraa!scum

In both scenarios we end up with two scum dead and one town player of scum choosing being killed.

Where I now see merit is that if we miss on the two non-Noraa shots, we at least have ensured that town (as an individual or collectively) has control over who dies. But this advantage is only gained if we concede that two town players are dead and I'm uneasy about playing to improve the worst case scenario. My instinct is that although it would be good to prevent scum killing who they choose, attempting to outplay the game in this way would be very difficult when we are the ones in the dark and it could very easily lead to disaster.

[UNOwen]

You really think Taylor is scum here? Taylor standing up for me I generally consider town indicative because she has no business getting herself in hot water for a random townie that's perfect limbait if she's scum. Y'all say the "she wouldn't do this as scum" argument is bad but it literally isn't. I cannot see a single reason for why scum!Taylor would pull this play out right here, right now.

Reread that conversation then tell me if you still think I said what you appear to think I said.

[shellyc]

@shellyc

Whos inactive and whos voting them?

a lot of people

I was referring to hopkirk wanting vault

[shellyc]

Isn't this the exact order you wanted to hear though? You picked 4 people you thought were obvtown, one slight town, and one suspicious (all reads you'd said) then Uno's order didn't conflict with that at all. What was your logic behind those specific 6 being the listing?

scum would want to shade consensus TRs and I wanted to find that in UNO

[shellyc]

scum do not have a nightkill

the only way to get a nightkill is to sacrifice one of their members
thus in here they will have to give more effort to shade consensus TRs so they can miselim them at some point