mystery box of silver 10: neighborhood (this is done)

[mastina]

So when I asked you to discuss the scum face, I am asking you to discuss an active, usually charismatic player that might be scum.

Math does fit the profile. In fact he's the ONLY one that fits the profile in my suspects pool.

I mean, notably, given how D1 played out, it was quite apparent there was no scum face actively engaged in the thread as one of the top posters--D1 couldn't have played out the way it did if there was one, given we know that literally all the active D1 players pretty much are of a confirmed alignment.

[mastina]

Scum double kills have been frowned on since that one mini normal I was in ages ago that's the reason scum vigs are banned in normals.

Scum doublekills are only banned in Normals and still make appearances in all other game modes (aside from Opens). Even micros. Micros can and have had a scum vig in them (I'd know as I WAS the scum vig), and Large Themes have them often enough (I've been a scum vig in a Large Theme, a fairly recent one run by FakeGod, and the last schadd_ MBOS large also featured a scum vig in it), so I will believe the vig is town only if the vig is town by play.

A vig in this game should not be mechanically considered town. I'm not quite confident enough to argue if anything the opposite, that it should be a mechanical scumclaim, so will instead say that stay neutral mechanically and deem the vig's alignment by their play rather than by their role.
(Barring players that're mechanically cleared for other reasons, e.g. that Norwegian is mechanically cleared as not-scum so if Norwegian were the vig, obviously the vig would be town. )

[Nero Cain]

a vig has to be town b/c we were told there is one anti-town faction and something like an SK is its own faction. So it's either a scum double kill or just a vig shot.

[Nero Cain]

I mean, I guess there could be a scum vig but it would be army.

[Nero Cain]

I do legit think DDL is a silly flip. He's so ez to wagon. I feel like we should be using it on someone that will be hard to wagon

[mastina]

Add that to what mastina said. We need this elimination to be decided here between us all. A unanimous decision if possible, but if not then a majority will suffice.

On that note.

Given that we have a guaranteed 33% chance in {DDL, jjh, Pickaxe Pete}.
And we seem to largely agree that jjh is, mechanically, town.

That gives us a 50/50 in {DDL, Pickaxe Pete}--I've been a Pickaxe Pete defender for what I feel are fairly reasonable reasons but acknowledge that he's largely outside of me scumread by us, but DDL I feel like is a universal scumread; is anyone here townreading DDL? Any of Morning Mage, superbowl9, Titus/Nero, or Norwegian? Because he seems like the safest of the safest eliminations:
Guaranteed to be at least 50% chance of being scum, but more universally thought to be scum from what I can tell.

Am I wrong?

[mastina]

Mastina said no Godfathers right. Gamma's role is essentially a one shot Godfather to the clearing attempts.

I'm of the opposite mindset.
Gamma was a 1-shot alien, which asceticizes (and protects) the target once in the game.
Do you think scum have a 1x alien

and

an ascetic?

I don't think so, and I don't think jjh fakeclaims a role he doesn't have when scum wouldn't be able to fake that role more than once in the game. (Basically, Gamma couldn't target jjh every night to make jjh appear as ascetic.)

So Gamma's flip actually makes me more sure that jjh is town, not less.

[mastina]

I'd rather play but BM is free to call for vig shots on us.

I mean, if the vig is town and wasn't 1x, it would be good for us to be shot because it says we need to be killed at night, it doesn't specify we need to be killed by scum.

The vig would be doing

everyone

a favor by killing us at night.

[Nero Cain]

here's my hot take: everyone voting norway (bell, shelly, tayl0r) are town and the person not voting norway (S_S) is scum.

counterpoint: voting norway is null b/c its free town cred and any intelligent scum would be fighting tooth and nail to get on that wagon

[mastina]

I do legit think DDL is a silly flip. He's so ez to wagon. I feel like we should be using it on someone that will be hard to wagon

Guaranteed scum that's easy to flip > not guaranteed scum that's harder to flip.

Scumflips are scumflips.

They help the town, no matter how easy they may be to get.

A non-scumflip on a target harder to lynch is basically akin to a hero-vig; to be avoided, as a general rule, because those sorts of shots frequently hit town. They're high-risk, medium-to-high reward.

Whereas going for the guaranteed scum is zero-to-low-risk, medium-reward.

I'd rather take a near-zero-risk plan with a medium reward, than a high risk plan that's medium-to-high in reward.

So the execute today should be the guaranteed 50/50+ in DDL/Pickaxe Pete.

If we hit town, we know the other is scum on D4; if we hit scum, well, scum are dead.

Basically, executing one of DDL/Pickaxe Pete guarantees that we have one dead scum confirmed, so that the scum are down to 3/5 of their members.

Shooting anyone else today and then we need to spend D4 eliminating one of the two and if we hit town, D5 eliminating another.

Basically:

If we execute one of DDL/Pickaxe Pete, we guarantee that by the end of D4 we have at least one more dead scum;
If we execute outside of DDL/Pickaxe Pete, then we don't have that guarantee until D5.

[mastina]

To put it another way:
If jjh is, indeed, mechanically town.
And there's at least one scum (possibly more, but GUARANTEED to be AT LEAST one) in {

jjh

, DDL, Pickaxe Pete}.
If we eliminate one of DDL/PP today and they flip town, the other is GUARANTEED 100% mod-confirmed scum. Literally confscum.
If we eliminate one of DDL/PP today and they flip scum, the other might still be scum but we can discuss that come D4 and talk more about it then, with only three groupscum at most left in the game.

[Nero Cain]

DDL is prob scum but a wagon on lynching him is lazy. Also, I'm not listening to you after april.

[NorwegianboyEE]

i think my solve might be

math
DS
ddl
SS

Not bad reads. There's probably at least 2 maybe 3 scum here.

[NorwegianboyEE]

my imagination makes our name sound like we are some snooty steampunk-ish group that thinks we are above both town and mafia. And I am.

My favourite post so far.

[NorwegianboyEE]

hey norway. Just wanted to let you know that you are here mostly b/c of me. You are town and even though we aren't town we are deff not scum or a threat to the town. pls don't betray us or out the aspects of our wincon b/c if scum know that our wincon involves being nked then they'll not nk us.

Why would i betray you?

[mastina]

Also, I'm not listening to you after april.

Fair in terms of reads, but what's wrong in my logic about a literal mod statement that a group of three literally contains a minimum of one groupscum in it?

What's wrong in my logic for feeling like jjh is mechanically more likely to be town?

What's wrong in my logic for, given jjh as town and being in the list of three, eliminating in the list of two remaining (DDL/PP) so that we have guaranteed scum dead by the end of D4?

[Nero Cain]

prob b/c I like sweeden better...

[Nero Cain]

we lynch DDL today. d6 rolls around and they can't lynch Math/SS are we are in the dead thread saying "town sure could have used that 1 shot dayvig but we wasted it on DDL."

[NorwegianboyEE]

prob b/c I like sweeden better...

VOTE: Nero Cain

[Nero Cain]

but IKEA!

[Almost50]

As always, I still have a LOT to read and analyze (including in this hood) but I wanted to convey sb's readlist:

Conf!Town: sb, A50, MM
-------
"Condit5ional" Conf!town (under the assumption your mid-info is correct and accurate): Titus, mastina, Nero, Plus, Norway
--------
TRs:
Something_Smart - Rhetoric looks fine. Nothing scummy yet and isn't lurking.
--------
Null Town:
Bell - Been town!blocking him till later

Diamond - Seems to be trying to solve, so can be he is a misguided townie with poor outcomes.
--------
Null:
Pickaxe Pete - Only thing working FOR him is he was on Gamma and not April. Can't find anything positive about his play

Math - Rhetoric seems towny, but being against the town!block earns him scumpoints

TGP - By content he is null, but fits nicely into the PoE
--------
Null Scum:
shellyc - Samantha was town, while shelly' behavior is weird. Tone is off

Chemist - Christopher was scummy. Haven't paid much attention to Chemist to change that

Taylor Swift - None if her content is scummy, but seems to pop into thread at convenient times with convenient arguments to end up on convenient wagons
--------
Scum:
jjh - I've been tunneled on jjh since D1. His tine is awful, and so is the activity. Even Ascetic I consider a scummy claim

DDL - Hasn't contributed at all that even if town I would like him eliminated way before E-Lo

[Almost50]

Allegedly, shellyc is apparently a spamposter who tops the charts in postcount normally, yet she hasn't even remotely done so this game.

She is also a LHF as Town (she claims that and at least 2 others confirm it). I don't see her a being LHF here.

[Almost50]

I'd rather play but BM is free to call for vig shots on us.

I mean, if the vig is town and wasn't 1x, it would be good for us to be shot because it says we need to be killed at night, it doesn't specify we need to be killed by scum.

The vig would be doing

everyone

a favor by killing us at night.

I mean, I could recommend that to the main thread if I execute scum today.

[Titus]

I would say something like

Vig if you have any inkling that mastina/nero/Titus are scum, you'll have to shoot them.

[Titus]

Maybe SS is scum.