mystery box of silver 10. (done)

[superbowl9]

Because I feel DDL is a misexecute and if we're taking a shot, I'd rather hit scum. So Pickaxe Pete or SS.

I'd rather hit scum so let's shoot outside confscum?? If DDL is town then we have a guaranteed 1/2 scum!

So then we should execute Pickaxe but based on the popularity of DDL, I don't feel that's happening.

So your position is I should accept the misexecute?

Well saying DDL isn't scum so we should go outside the POE makes less sense than DDL isn't scum so let's go elsewhere within the poe is what I'm saying

[TheGoldenParadox]

i think shooting outside the confscum group isn't a great idea for today. i'm fairly equal on jjh/ddl scumreads and TRing pete more, but choosing to execute outside the group gives scum in that group more time to manipulate and/or use their prs if they have them. basically, 1+/3 is better than 4/12 and our collective, comparative reads on the three are likely to be better than our reads overall.

[superbowl9]

TGP who are your top scumreads?

[Titus]

@superbowl @TGP
Shooting inside the group makes more sense if you feel there's a decent chance of being wrong I guess. You're accurate there and if Almost50 isn't taking a hero shot, that can't be held against us. Mathematically, it makes more sense to shoot outside the group, if we feel confident outside rather than inside.

Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.

This doesn't factor in reads.

If we factor in likely group reads, I feel we have a zero percent chance if DDL or jjh is selected.
Thus we go to 50/50 to the group collective.
And then still, 3/9 in the outside the collective.

If we're wrong on shooting SS (or just outside the group)...
Then we get 1/3
3/8

So if we're going to be wrong, then shooting within the group is better.

[MathBlade]

@superbowl @TGP
Shooting inside the group makes more sense if you feel there's a decent chance of being wrong I guess. You're accurate there and if Almost50 isn't taking a hero shot, that can't be held against us. Mathematically, it makes more sense to shoot outside the group, if we feel confident outside rather than inside.

Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.

This doesn't factor in reads.

If we factor in likely group reads, I feel we have a zero percent chance if DDL or jjh is selected.
Thus we go to 50/50 to the group collective.
And then still, 3/9 in the outside the collective.

If we're wrong on shooting SS (or just outside the group)...
Then we get 1/3
3/8

So if we're going to be wrong, then shooting within the group is better.

Math error:

Titus is assuming exactly one scum in those three. Number unknown.
Titus is also suffering from Monty Hall Problem.
Please revise.

*lurks*

[Something_Smart]

The NKA regarding who made such a kill. Scum making such a kill isn't out of the ordinary. Plus is more likely to be protected on the night he gives out the power, if town even has a doctor.

Well, I never said that the kill was especially likely to come from any particular player. That's all A50.

[Something_Smart]

Give me a readslist that convinces me otherwise SS.

Fortunately, I don't have to convince you, I have to convince A50, and he knows that me not having reads isn't scum-indicative.

[superbowl9]

Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.

I don't think this stat is correct, we have AT LEAST a 33% chance (33%-100%) of hitting within conf group, we have anywhere from 1-4 in the other 9, so an 11%-44% chance. <-- when it's phrased like this it becomes clear what our option is

[superbowl9]

Math error:

Titus is assuming exactly one scum in those three. Number unknown.
Titus is also suffering from Monty Hall Problem.
Please revise.

Dw gotchu fam

[superbowl9]

we have AT LEAST a 33% chance (33%-100%) of hitting within conf group, we have anywhere from 1-4 in the other 9, so an 11%-44% chance. <-- when it's phrased like this it becomes clear what our option is

And if we shoot wrong within the group we now have 22%-44% outside and 50%-100% inside. Pretty clearly statistics say shoot inside until we hit scum

[Something_Smart]

town - Mathblade, NorwegianboyEE
protown 3p - A50, Morning Mage, superbowl9
townlean - jjh, DS
3p who's at least trying to help town - Titus
null - Tayl0r, Chemist, shelly, DDL, TGP
non-protown 3p - mastina, Nero Cain
scumlean - Pete, Bell

[superbowl9]

Why the jjh townlean SS?

[Titus]

Player Name	Execution Preference
shellyc	DDL>Pete>jjh
Chemist1422
Bell	DDL (doesn't disagree - yucky)
mastina	DDL
Nero Cain	DDL (but prefers outside)
MathBlade	Pete
Morning Mage	DDL, or outside mod's trio shelly or taylor
Almost50	Blank for good reason
superbowl9	jjh
Tayl0r Swift	DDL
jjh927	not DDL so Pete by PoE
Titus	Pickaxe Pete
NorwegianboyEE	DDL
Pickaxe Pete	DDL until "latest stunt by jjh"
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart	Not jjh [JJH is town, and SS is scum]
DrDolittle	Pete?
TheGoldenParadox

[/quote]

Is there a lag on MS for anyone else or is it my internet?

[Something_Smart]

It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's your internet, site is fine for me

[superbowl9]

It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.

Got it i remember you saying that now. Just curious why do you think an ascetic claim is more likely town than scum here?

[MathBlade]

Player Name	Execution Preference
shellyc	DDL>Pete>jjh
Chemist1422
Bell	DDL (doesn't disagree - yucky)
mastina	DDL
Nero Cain	DDL (but prefers outside)
MathBlade	Pete
Morning Mage	DDL, or outside mod's trio shelly or taylor
Almost50	Blank for good reason
superbowl9	jjh
Tayl0r Swift	DDL
jjh927	not DDL so Pete by PoE
Titus	Pickaxe Pete
NorwegianboyEE	DDL
Pickaxe Pete	DDL until "latest stunt by jjh"
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart	Not jjh [JJH is town, and SS is scum]
DrDolittle	Pete?
TheGoldenParadox

Is there a lag on MS for anyone else or is it my internet?[/quote]

If you want others to use your chart, probably best if you remove personal opinion.
Otherwise probably best in a personal PT.

[Something_Smart]

Just curious why do you think an ascetic claim is more likely town than scum here?

The logic's in the post you quoted. Ascetic-scum-jjh might just not claim ascetic and enjoy his investigative immunity.

[Titus]

I stand corrected. I think I have said my piece.

Pickaxe Chemist SS Bell.

Unless anyone has something specific to discuss with me, I am willing to wait on A50.

[MathBlade]

I stand corrected. I think I have said my piece.

Pickaxe Chemist SS Bell.

Unless anyone has something specific to discuss with me, I am willing to wait on A50.

Can you please go look at my last few posts before I went to bed?

You don’t need to respond but I suggest you need them. Obviously I don’t know what you do (although I suspect I am right) but imho the Titus/Mastina/Nero hood or the 7 hood needs to change something.

Can’t really detail a lot working.

[Titus]

Math, I would love to see your VCA supposing the council of 7 are all townsiding.

[MathBlade]

Math, I would love to see your VCA supposing the council of 7 are all townsiding.

Hahahaha a vca with overtime this week and drs appointments

It’s been difficult enough to keep up.

Respectfully not until Monday night at earliest and maybe not even then.

From memory both wagons were 3P heavy so not much likely visible so I punted

[Titus]

@Mathblade,

That's the thing about conftown working in concert with more information. We can't take the chance of sharing our information (particularly our wincon), with anyone who isn't scum. So when you have one group that has more information than another, it's going to feel a bit like chess pieces. There's not much to be done. You and DS naturally rebel in such situations. Well scum!DS wouldn't. So there's always going to be conflict. It's what happened in that one game where Cerb and I were conftown and we misexecuted you due to your resistance.

I understand if this means our 3p needs to be shot, but it is what it is. If you become confirmed not!Army, I would advocate letting you know everything.

[Something_Smart]

That would be all well and good if you were in fact conftown

[Something_Smart]

The problem that I have (and presumably this is the same one that Mathblade and DS also have) is not that you have more information and are using it to make decisions we don't understand. That's perfectly fine as far as it goes.

It's that you're doing all that, while giving us little reason to believe that your motives are what you say they are.