Well saying DDL isn't scum so we should go outside the POE makes less sense than DDL isn't scum so let's go elsewhere within the poe is what I'm sayingIn post 5348, Titus wrote:So then we should execute Pickaxe but based on the popularity of DDL, I don't feel that's happening.In post 5346, superbowl9 wrote:I'd rather hit scum so let's shoot outside confscum?? If DDL is town then we have a guaranteed 1/2 scum!In post 5344, Titus wrote:Because I feel DDL is a misexecute and if we're taking a shot, I'd rather hit scum. So Pickaxe Pete or SS.
So your position is I should accept the misexecute?
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i think shooting outside the confscum group isn't a great idea for today. i'm fairly equal on jjh/ddl scumreads and TRing pete more, but choosing to execute outside the group gives scum in that group more time to manipulate and/or use their prs if they have them. basically, 1+/3 is better than 4/12 and our collective, comparative reads on the three are likely to be better than our reads overall.- superbowl9
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Shooting inside the group makes more sense if you feel there's a decent chance of being wrong I guess. You're accurate there and if Almost50 isn't taking a hero shot, that can't be held against us. Mathematically, it makes more sense to shoot outside the group, if we feel confident outside rather than inside.
Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.
This doesn't factor in reads.
If we factor in likely group reads, I feel we have a zero percent chance if DDL or jjh is selected.
Thus we go to 50/50 to the group collective.
And then still, 3/9 in the outside the collective.
If we're wrong on shooting SS (or just outside the group)...
Then we get 1/3
3/8
So if we're going to be wrong, then shooting within the group is better.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Math error:In post 5353, Titus wrote:@superbowl @TGP
Shooting inside the group makes more sense if you feel there's a decent chance of being wrong I guess. You're accurate there and if Almost50 isn't taking a hero shot, that can't be held against us. Mathematically, it makes more sense to shoot outside the group, if we feel confident outside rather than inside.
Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.
This doesn't factor in reads.
If we factor in likely group reads, I feel we have a zero percent chance if DDL or jjh is selected.
Thus we go to 50/50 to the group collective.
And then still, 3/9 in the outside the collective.
If we're wrong on shooting SS (or just outside the group)...
Then we get 1/3
3/8
So if we're going to be wrong, then shooting within the group is better.
Titus is assuming exactly one scum in those three. Number unknown.
Titus is also suffering from Monty Hall Problem.
Please revise.
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Well, I never said that the kill was especially likely to come from any particular player. That's all A50.In post 5337, Titus wrote:The NKA regarding who made such a kill. Scum making such a kill isn't out of the ordinary. Plus is more likely to be protected on the night he gives out the power, if town even has a doctor.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Fortunately, I don't have to convince you, I have to convince A50, and he knows that me not having reads isn't scum-indicative.In post 5342, Titus wrote:Give me a readslist that convinces me otherwise SS.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I don't think this stat is correct, we have AT LEAST a 33% chance (33%-100%) of hitting within conf group, we have anywhere from 1-4 in the other 9, so an 11%-44% chance. <-- when it's phrased like this it becomes clear what our option isIn post 5353, Titus wrote:Inside right now we have 1/3 or 33 percent odds of hitting correctly.
Outside we have 3/ (18-6-3) or 3/9 or also 33 percent odds of hitting correctly. Plus, I have more townreads in the outer group.- superbowl9
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Dw gotchu famIn post 5354, MathBlade wrote:Math error:
Titus is assuming exactly one scum in those three. Number unknown.
Titus is also suffering from Monty Hall Problem.
Please revise.- superbowl9
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And if we shoot wrong within the group we now have 22%-44% outside and 50%-100% inside. Pretty clearly statistics say shoot inside until we hit scumIn post 5357, superbowl9 wrote:we have AT LEAST a 33% chance (33%-100%) of hitting within conf group, we have anywhere from 1-4 in the other 9, so an 11%-44% chance. <-- when it's phrased like this it becomes clear what our option is- Something_Smart
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[/quote]Player Name Execution Preference shellyc DDL>Pete>jjh Chemist1422 Bell DDL (doesn't disagree - yucky) mastina DDL Nero Cain DDL (but prefers outside) MathBlade Pete Morning Mage DDL, or outside mod's trio shelly or taylor Almost50 Blank for good reason superbowl9 jjh Tayl0r Swift DDL jjh927 not DDL so Pete by PoE Titus Pickaxe Pete NorwegianboyEE DDL Pickaxe Pete DDL until "latest stunt by jjh" DiamondSentinel Something_Smart Not jjh [JJH is town, and SS is scum] DrDolittle Pete? TheGoldenParadox
Is there a lag on MS for anyone else or is it my internet?ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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In post 4642, Something_Smart wrote:It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Got it i remember you saying that now. Just curious why do you think an ascetic claim is more likely town than scum here?In post 5363, Something_Smart wrote:In post 4642, Something_Smart wrote:It's likely that jjh is indeed ascetic, and if he is ascetic, there's a decent chance he doesn't claim it as scum, but a smaller chance he doesn't claim it as town. So mild preference for not him.- MathBlade
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Is there a lag on MS for anyone else or is it my internet?[/quote]In post 5362, Titus wrote:Player Name Execution Preference shellyc DDL>Pete>jjh Chemist1422 Bell DDL (doesn't disagree - yucky) mastina DDL Nero Cain DDL (but prefers outside) MathBlade Pete Morning Mage DDL, or outside mod's trio shelly or taylor Almost50 Blank for good reason superbowl9 jjh Tayl0r Swift DDL jjh927 not DDL so Pete by PoE Titus Pickaxe Pete NorwegianboyEE DDL Pickaxe Pete DDL until "latest stunt by jjh" DiamondSentinel Something_Smart Not jjh [JJH is town, and SS is scum] DrDolittle Pete? TheGoldenParadox
If you want others to use your chart, probably best if you remove personal opinion.
Otherwise probably best in a personal PT.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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The logic's in the post you quoted. Ascetic-scum-jjh might just not claim ascetic and enjoy his investigative immunity.In post 5365, superbowl9 wrote:Just curious why do you think an ascetic claim is more likely town than scum here?Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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I stand corrected. I think I have said my piece.
Pickaxe Chemist SS Bell.
Unless anyone has something specific to discuss with me, I am willing to wait on A50.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Can you please go look at my last few posts before I went to bed?In post 5368, Titus wrote:I stand corrected. I think I have said my piece.
Pickaxe Chemist SS Bell.
Unless anyone has something specific to discuss with me, I am willing to wait on A50.
You don’t need to respond but I suggest you need them. Obviously I don’t know what you do (although I suspect I am right) but imho the Titus/Mastina/Nero hood or the 7 hood needs to change something.
Can’t really detail a lot working.ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Math, I would love to see your VCA supposing the council of 7 are all townsiding.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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Hahahaha a vca with overtime this week and drs appointmentsIn post 5370, Titus wrote:Math, I would love to see your VCA supposing the council of 7 are all townsiding.
It’s been difficult enough to keep up.
Respectfully not until Monday night at earliest and maybe not even then.
From memory both wagons were 3P heavy so not much likely visible so I puntedScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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@Mathblade,
That's the thing about conftown working in concert with more information. We can't take the chance of sharing our information (particularly our wincon), with anyone who isn't scum. So when you have one group that has more information than another, it's going to feel a bit like chess pieces. There's not much to be done. You and DS naturally rebel in such situations. Well scum!DS wouldn't. So there's always going to be conflict. It's what happened in that one game where Cerb and I were conftown and we misexecuted you due to your resistance.
I understand if this means our 3p needs to be shot, but it is what it is. If you become confirmed not!Army, I would advocate letting you know everything.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
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The problem that I have (and presumably this is the same one that Mathblade and DS also have) is not that you have more information and are using it to make decisions we don't understand. That's perfectly fine as far as it goes.
It's that you're doing all that, while giving us little reason to believe that your motives are what you say they are.Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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