mystery box of silver 10: neighborhood (this is done)

[Titus]

is Math trying to do some silly gambit where he is trying to keep the hood alive by throwing doubt on us but in reality knows that scum are indeed outside of the hood?

Who knows?

[Nero Cain]

I view those things as a frustrated town!DS who is out of control of the game.

naw. his argo was fake as shit. I mean, he could just be like a town pr that's trying to seem scum so he doesn't get shot but me going "oh I think there could be scum at the tail end of the gamma wagon."

then DS going "oh Nero is annoying me [for thinking that]"

followed by my feeling that was a scummy reaction to getting lightly suspected.

and then DS really going ham and accusing me of inconsistency and ad homming me.

It just doesn't feel genuine to me.

[Titus]

I've tunneled DS town for the very same factors you describe Nero. DS is just that egocentric.

[Titus]

Please please please don't excute Shelly.

[Titus]

Or Taylor.

[mastina]

I actually did suggest using it on plus tonight but Mastina and Titus were so scared of Plus lynching one of them.

I do confess that.
I knew it was possible PlusJOYED could be killed, but,
1: I didn't want to hand the reigns over to someone who, as far as every sign said, would be utterly uncooperative coming into D3 and was likely to make a hero-kill on someone like one of us, and,
2: While I knew it was possible, I admit I was hoping it wasn't probable. That in spite of the possibility, scum had better kills that'd be more probable.

[mastina]

they didn't even want to invite norway

I wanted to get the masonry members in here as quickly as possible, so that Almost50 wouldn't have to be the one and only relay point between us and to make communicating easier. Also I thought there was a fair chance Norwegian would've been the nightkill last night and as noted above, in some ways, was hoping for it.

(Basically, scum killing conftown PlusJOYED who has an odd-night disloyal alignment cop inventor is better than scum killing conftown with an unknown role, which is why I was hoping they'd opt for the latter over the former.)

[Almost50]

Stop this now and head to the main thread. Go directly to #5525 if you will. How does this sound to you?

[mastina]

Because i've made exactly an graph like that in another game a long time ago and it turned out the consensus scumread was in fact the scum.

^Proof from this game alone: Gamma.

Gamma was a consensus scumread. Not UNIVERSAL consensus, and we know some of that disagreement inherently must have come from town (given both flipped-town-April and guaranteed-town-Almost50 defended Gamma), but very very close to a universal consensus scumread.

In fact, some of the Gamma defenders even insisted that Gamma's townness came from how he was such a universal scumread, a consensus scumread.

Gamma was scum.

So I won't buy into a theory that the consensus-scumread on DDL is wrong just because it's consensus.

[mastina]

Stop this now and head to the main thread. Go directly to #5525 if you will. How does this sound to you?

Like a poor plan for someone who is V/LA over the weekends, finds it easier to stay up to date in PTs, and who likes to catch up chronologically to make sure she doesn't miss potentially important material.

[Almost50]

@mastina: How likely did Chemist claim her real role as Scum? Because I don't see her role co-existing with April's. I feel that's redundant in a way, but it makes sense to be a scum role designed to tell them X was visited by a TOWN role or something maybe?

[mastina]

@mastina: How likely did Chemist claim her real role as Scum? Because I don't see her role co-existing with April's. I feel that's redundant in a way, but it makes sense to be a scum role designed to tell them X was visited by a TOWN role or something maybe?

It does seem like a scum role, and I'll tell you why: Subject: mystery box of silver ten: titans of the votehouse LETSA GO

motifs of the series:

normal roles or otherwise non-flashy roles;

Does Chemist's role sound like a Normal or otherwise non-flashy role?

Not to me.
It feels like a partial realclaim of a scum role, but I admit that I'd need to double-check roles in past schadd_ games to confirm that schadd_'s never run a role like that before.

[Nero Cain]

inb4 chemist is town and a50 shoots her

[mastina]

There's also the fact that, when April claimed yesterday...Misty did not claim to have visited Titus.
While we know someone did visit Titus...why didn't Misty claim to have visited Titus yesterday after April claimed that visit?

[Nero Cain]

Because I don't see her role co-existing with April's.

just a reminder that this is a large so just by factor of it being large doesn't make two similar roles impossible. I just played in two mini's hosted by Schaad with multiple gunsmiths so...

[mastina]

This was Chemist's response to the motion detector claim. To quote it,

i don't think the md claim is worth much tbh
actually i think it's more likely to be a fakeclaim than a legit guilty because tracker/MD in the same setup don't make a ton of sense

Misty should have known it wasn't a fakeclaim from her perspective--she visited Titus so she should have known that the sensed-motion result was genuine.

Admittedly, thinking it's a scum realclaim isn't out of the question, since Misty would think that with her role and she did say that she didn't think the sensed-motion claim was worth much.

But she said fakeclaim rather than scum realclaim.

But then again, many people say 'fakeclaim' when they mean 'scum realclaim'.

So...ehhhh. It's not conclusive. Could be town, could be scum.

I think this proves that Chemist has a role like this and did target Titus N1; it doesn't however tell us whether Misty is definitely town or scum.

[Nero Cain]

I mean, it

is

very convenient by its public knowledge that Titus was targeted.

[Almost50]

Chemist doubted the MD based on the existence of a Tracker too. Now why would she NOT be on April's wagon if she believed a Tracker + Motion Detector (+ her role) didn't match?

So, yes. She either didn't think April was MD to begin with, or she knew he was really MD and -if she's town- she should have been ON that wagon.

[mastina]

Chemist doubted the MD based on the existence of a Tracker too. Now why would she NOT be on April's wagon if she believed a Tracker + Motion Detector (+ her role) didn't match? So, yes. She either didn't think April was MD to begin with, or she knew he was really MD and -if she's town- she should have been ON that wagon.

I'm inclined to agree.

I can see her being town here, but the evidence does loosely suggest scum overall.

[Nero Cain]

yeah its p odd

[Titus]

Because I don't see her role co-existing with April's.

just a reminder that this is a large so just by factor of it being large doesn't make two similar roles impossible. I just played in two mini's hosted by Schaad with multiple gunsmiths so...

Nero, I won't babysit you. I swear.

[Nero Cain]

????

[Nero Cain]

ok Math is straight-up light claiming a pr so we lynch him if he ever claims to be a vt/vanilla card carrier.

[Nero Cain]

town also say and do dumb things, like I agree that chemist not being all over April after mostly calling him scum but it doesn't have to flip scum, imo

[mastina]

shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift
jjh927
Pickaxe Pete
DiamondSentinel
Something_Smart/EchoVision
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox

This is an unordered list of the players not 100% confirmed not-scum.

From this list:
I feel like EchoVision was town and Something_Smart's contributions do seem to be town here, but I admit it's not locktown in terms of content. Still, probably someone who is more likely town than not, thus, bad elimination for days upon days. A "close to lylo, reevaluate, otherwise, trust" read. I'm removing him from the list.

jjh is an ascetic--schadd_ uses ascetics as both alignments, so this could be a scum role, but based on the setup with the roles revealed, along with my read on him, I feel like he's far more likely to be town. I'll not remove-remove him from the list, but will put his name in strikethrough text, to help indicate how likely it is that he's not scum, as an honorary-removal.

Pickaxe Pete, I think people are going, "active lurker, must be scum". But Pickaxe Pete, while having one of the lowest post counts in the game, isn't actually an active lurker; if you look at Pickaxe Pete's iso, there's no fluff in it. Pickaxe Pete isn't posting often, but when he does, it is actual solid real content. People say that his hop onto Gamma might've been arbitrary and he felt trapped and couldn't switch off--but if you look at his iso, that's not actually the case? He was a legitimate pusher of Gamma, and you can see it with posts like this and also this, where he is pushing for Gamma-scum by pointing out that the Gamma defenders don't have good grounds to stand upon.

I realize that he's not active and that his posts after D1 aren't quite as good and that he's in the list of three for scum--but honestly? I don't see the scum case for him at all and consider him to be town. I recognize that he's in the list of three though so instead of removing him from the list I'll underline him.

shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
Tayl0r Swift

jjh927

Pickaxe Pete

DiamondSentinel
DrDolittle
TheGoldenParadox

shellyc's a slot I've strongly gut-townread, liking her content the entire game, but hearsay strongly suggests that she should be scum, because she's not hyperposting and not displaying low-hanging fruit tendencies; she's being reasonable, logical, pristine and precise. I have no gauge on whether this hearsay is accurate, but if it is, then she'd be scum. But left to my own devices, I'd call her town. She probably stays in the scum candidate list regardless.

Misty we're currently discussing. I felt that Christopher was nullscum, and Misty's play while looking better wasn't strongly town. There's multiple issues with her claim, but there is some soft evidence suggesting she did at least soft it D2 in spite of not having claimed it. So I can see her as town but think the evidence does point to scum more than town. She definitely stays in the scum candidate list.

Bell and Mathblade are just...a whole mess of ambivalence and messiness. I don't think they're on the same tier as Misty and shelly, but they're just...hard to pin down.

Tayl0r Swift has a bunch of town-looking content, but utterly atrocious interactions with Gamma; Gamma should've been suspicious of Tayl0r but instead thought her town, and Tayl0r was one of the Gamma defenders, a rather strong outspoken one. When it comes to any individual post, I'd say town, but when it comes to the whole with the stances being pushed, I'd say scum. Probably not in the same tier as shellyc/Misty, but close to.

DiamondSentinel is more or less a read where I can see the townness of the slot and want to trust that Titus's meta of DiamondSentinel (since Titus is one of the few players who I feel has good meta on him) is accurate when she says that he's strongly town. So he's among the least-likely.

DDL looks like scum through and through and is in the list of three, so he's among the most-likely.

TheGoldenParadox is basically a hybrid of Pickaxe Pete and Something_Smart, taking the town indicators of both of them but downplaying them to be less town than they are in their original slots. I can see him as town and do read him as such, but he does have some rather questionable areas of his iso and he's not in the same league of towniness. Still though, given this read, he's among the least-likely.

So now giving the list an ordered list:

jjh927

Pickaxe Pete

(Personally I'd remove from candidacy if not for being in the list of three)

DiamondSentinel
TheGoldenParadox
(Not removed, but among the least likely)

Bell
MathBlade/Vecna
(hard to get locked down)

shellyc/samantha97
Chemist1422/Christøpher
Tayl0r Swift
(Among the most likely)

DrDolittle
(By far the most likely)

Given there's four scum left alive, right now if you asked me for a solve given the above I'd go DDL-Tayl0r-Misty-shelly, but I don't know how likely it is and I'm definitely not going to push most of these hard.