In post 5383, Something_Smart wrote:You guys did the chess thing with the April execution. I predicted that the reasons were dumb, and when they were revealed today, lo and behold they were in fact dumb.
The reasons were not dumb. People keep going, "mastina thought April was scum, confbiasing the mechanical reasons to be stronger", OR, "the mechanical reasons were the only reason for suspecting April, and they were weak", but neither of those viewpoints is an accurate representation of the facts; it's simultaneously both and neither (but far more of the former than the latter, that is to say, while neither is accurate, the former is much closer to accurate than the latter).
I had a very very legitimate, reads-based, play-based, actual ingame no mechanics involved, good reason to scumread April and this was not something kept in the secret of the neighborhood; if you iso me, these reasons were on display on D2. Those reasons were not dumb. Wrong, but not dumb.
There were mechanical reasons for April to be scum. These mechanical reasons were things that of the members of the neighborhood, everyone aside from me said they were less damning than I thought they were. They were right, the reasons were in fact less damning than I thought they were, because April was town, not scum.
But I cased April as scum based on believing FL had TMI, defended scum D1, was trying to fight back on D2 while knowing if he didn't scum would lose from the townbloc due to the 3p, and
then
the mechanical reasons
on top
of that. That he was trying to tailor his claim to what he thought was evidence in the setup supporting that as a fakeclaim, a low-risk high-reward claim that he thought would fit while not actually fitting.
I was wrong, but that doesn't mean the reasons were dumb. They were wrong. Not dumb. I will take full blame for being wrong; it was a fuckup on my side for pushing it so hard while being wrong--but it was not for dumb reasons. It was for reasonable reasons that were incorrect. A mistake, but not from idiocy. No less of a mistake, it was still one, a rather bad one, but it was not a moronic mistake, it was a mistaken-mistake.