Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[lilith2013]

boop

[davesaz]

I guess my feeling om doubling up is that the wifom boost scum gets isnt worth deliberately throwing away the chance to get prs - in late game the 'doubling up' reasoning for clearing someone hasnt been given that much weight in my experience in practice

But if someone thinks that wifom boost is worth it, the calculation becomes different, obviously

Last game (that I modded) the scum team got absolutely nothing out of their PRs other than being caught.
Players who were in that game were discussing how it might be better to just ignore the PRs as scum.
Though it's also arguable that the scumteam made very bad choices...

I would assert that it's a bad strategy for town to focus in on the picks in early game. Play the game like it's mountainous, at least day 1, and see what the mechanics say as the game develops.

[davesaz]

VOTE: lilith2013

[lilith2013]

Nah, just making an observation that's meant to spark conversation (like it did!).

And I've been scum in x|y setups twice and multitasking is vastly more useful imo, you can get a p decent sense of the spread of roles just from knowing where scum sits in the draft + like two flips/claims

Also obligatory max one scum in each of the sets of 4's and 5's, imo

Multitasking is more useful if you assume scum are never picking the same numbers, but I feel like informed would be the optimal choice if they deliberately tanked their PR chances by trying to hide in the multi-picks

[Infinity 324]

Nah, just making an observation that's meant to spark conversation (like it did!).

And I've been scum in x|y setups twice and multitasking is vastly more useful imo, you can get a p decent sense of the spread of roles just from knowing where scum sits in the draft + like two flips/claims

Also obligatory max one scum in each of the sets of 4's and 5's, imo

Multitasking is more useful if you assume scum are never picking the same numbers, but I feel like informed would be the optimal choice if they deliberately tanked their PR chances by trying to hide in the multi-picks

Scum is hoopla + {jv, tgp, penguin}

I think we solved the game

[skitter30]

Eh fair enough
It's a strategy that would never occur to me to do, tho

[petapan]

Id actually like to go more in depth on this. Do you think scum goes out of their way to comment on something relatively obscure like Dripping's naked vote there? If so, why?

naked vote on you, you want to seem unbothered by it, so you go out to compliment it even though it's pretty much null. nervous energy to it you putting out cockamamie theories like me distancing from a teammate by making jokes about the 4s

[davesaz]

Everyone must be busy today.

[PenguinPower]

super busy

[Uncrowned]

Id actually like to go more in depth on this. Do you think scum goes out of their way to comment on something relatively obscure like Dripping's naked vote there? If so, why?

naked vote on you, you want to seem unbothered by it, so you go out to compliment it even though it's pretty much null. nervous energy to it you putting out cockamamie theories like me distancing from a teammate by making jokes about the 4s

That's assuming I actually care about being voted this early into D1.

A similar assumption would be me saying you're worried about the theory I made, hence why you're coming at me now with this, since you didn't bring it up until after I came up with the theory.

[Uncrowned]

With this thought process in mind, how many scum do you think there is between myself (14) Infinity (23) and Petapan (100000)?

i want to say peta's bid of a million is another brazen, highly suspicious scum move cooked up in the PT...

...but she's already pointed the finger at me, and we all know it's improper etiquette to accuse your accuser.

Still not sure I like this last bit. Feels like potential scum not wanting to take a stance on a slot in case they end up in an early conflict which draws attention to them.

Is there a reason you shaded Peta here instead of taking a proper stance?

[the worst]

vote count 1.01

Uncrowned (3)

: JacksonVirgo, DrippingGoofball, petapan

lilith2013 (3)

: Hoopla, Uncrowned, davesaz

Pine (1)

: PenguinPower

PenguinPower (1)

: skitter30

Hoopla (1)

: Infinity 324

JacksonVirgo (1)

: lilith2013

Not voting

: Something_Smart, Dunnstral, Pine, TheGoldenParadox

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-02 21:15:00)

mod notes

:
- skitter30 v/la Fridays & Saturdays
- quack

[Uncrowned]

I agree that we shouldn't focus too heavily on the picks D1. Too much WIFOM there until we get more associations and flips imo.

[skitter30]

Sure, but there isnt oodles to talk about otherwise yet

[PenguinPower]

VOTE: Uncrowned

[Hoopla]

VOTE: hoopla

Hard to tell how serious her posts have been, but something feels off about them

i once attempted a humorous post back in 2013.

needless to say, i have learned my lesson since then.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, do, uh, do you have any stats about how often numbers have been repeated four or more times?

here's the relevant post from Open 794 (updated with the 794's results):

of the 210 slots across 15 games, 45 are scum, 165 are town. here's where mafia have fallen:

singleton

mafia - 21 (30%)
town - 49

double

mafia - 14 (18.9%)
town - 60

triple

mafia - 6 (14.3%)
town - 36

quadruple

mafia - 1 (12.5%)
town - 7

quintuple

mafia - 1 (10%)
town - 9

sextuple

mafia - 0 (0%)
town - 6

as we can see, scum overwhelmingly tend to land in the singleton and doubled up numbers. this is a consequence of scum never choosing to collide with each other's numbers in the previous 15 runs of the game. they will naturally land higher in the draft (on average) by using such a strategy.

as for something_smart's specific question:

two games have had a quadruple.
two games have had a quintuple.
one game has had a sextuple.

so, one in three games has seen a group of 4+. interestingly, out of those 24 slots, only two have been scum.

[Infinity 324]

Someone explain to me this uncrowned wagon he's my only townread

[petapan]

Id actually like to go more in depth on this. Do you think scum goes out of their way to comment on something relatively obscure like Dripping's naked vote there? If so, why?

naked vote on you, you want to seem unbothered by it, so you go out to compliment it even though it's pretty much null. nervous energy to it you putting out cockamamie theories like me distancing from a teammate by making jokes about the 4s

That's assuming I actually care about being voted this early into D1.

A similar assumption would be me saying you're worried about the theory I made, hence why you're coming at me now with this, since you didn't bring it up until after I came up with the theory.

lmao dude

[Hoopla]

Or they werent in the last game?

I think that the info gained from picking informed isnt that much - a reasonably savvy scumteam should be able to approximate that sort of info once they know of like two claims

we have a lot of competing theories to explain the multitasking decision:

1) scum weren't in the last game/scumteam is comprised of newer players who may not know the true value of multitasking
2) scum have doubled/tripled up, tanking their draft position and chances to win roles
3) scum have made a leftfield play and are now engineering their responses to appear town by saying insisting they wouldn't have done that/considered that

~~

my responses to those:

1) a lot of the playerlist was in or observed that last game where it was seen multitasking was a useful consequence. seems likely scum would have had at least one member who knew its value.

2) this is an easier theory for me to rebuke as i have knowledge of my own alignment as town (thus can rule out 25% of the 4's), but there are simply too few doubled players for this to be likely, combinatorially speaking. the average draft will usually only have 2 to 4 players with unique numbers. this game we have 8. it's far likelier scum haven't doubled up.

3) my prodding of skitter was somewhat facetious. it's a seductive conspiracy theory for scum to pick something seemingly suboptimal just so they can overtly insist they wouldn't do it... this definitely falls within the realms of conspiracy, imo.

i'm persuaded by skitter's illumination of her thought process. having said that, i think infinity's piggybacking of skitter's train of thought:

I'm with skitter on this, I think multitasking is pretty much optimal no matter what.

is much likelier to be a faked stance.

~~

there's one more theory i'd throw out there regarding the multitasking vs. informed outcome:

what if scum was going for a PR strategy of limited use roles, ie; 1-shot vig, 1-shot PGO, 1-shot commuter, 1-shot watcher, 1-shot redirector, N3 vig, vengeful etc.

there's no real value in having multitasking if by the time it'll come in handy (being a solo mafioso in mid-to-late game) the team has already used all its power.

[Infinity 324]

Maybe they wanted a better fakeclaim, and thought that claiming the "town counterpart" to their role wouldn't work for whatever reason? Idk

Hoopla, thoughts on uncrowned?

[skitter30]

VOTE: Uncrowned

icky vote

[PenguinPower]

i disagree

[skitter30]

y r u voting them?

[PenguinPower]

wagons are good