Death Curse

[shellyc]

a pagetoppity for shelly

[Bell]

Hum,

Well,

We could go for zedenek but we’re lowish on time.

[Bell]

Well, shellyc that’s Disney evil.

[Nero Cain]

¶

Votecount 1.19

[8] Toogeloo:

Hopkirk, MURDERCAT, Titus, Toogeloo, Theta Alpine, MUSHSHAGANA, Lady Lambdadelta, Noraa

[3] Tayl0r Swift:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Bell, shellyc

[2] Bell:

Tayl0r Swift, Vaxkiller

[2] shellyc:

Fidget, Flea The Magician

[1] Noraa:

Adorable

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear

Gloria Cleary

[1] Adorable:

Lapsa

[1] Lapsa:

UNOwen

[1] Not Voting:

Zdenek

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-28 03:35:35).

Joint moderator ISO.

[Bell]

You’re scum regardless of your role pm for that page top.

[Hopkirk]

@hoppy if you think getting pissed off is a town trait why arent you TRing Bell for being pissed off at me.

Getting pissed off isn't a towntell inherently. Taylor's annoyance flows naturally.
Bell's I didn't get any vibes on and is about interactions between players including themselves which is much more eh.

[Bell]

Taylor is especially mercurial and by this I mean she’s up to something but the hell if I know what.

wdym by "mercurial" here? multiple players have taken strong action in this game

btw this is mine

Yes, but Taylor does things that don’t make sense as either alignment. As long as they made sense to her, forget your common sense.

[Hopkirk]

ours

oof

Hum,

Well,

We could go for zedenek but we’re lowish on time.

I still think that 'dumb strategies in response to a setup that aren't actually a good idea' are a towntell. This is based on my experience of it and is most of my read there.
I'm assuming the lack of people townreading the slot disagree, but I've gone over this at least three times now and nobody's bothered to address it when naked saying they dislike Zedenek. What am I meant to do here.

[Bell]

Sheep the teddy bear.

[Bell]

He said he wants to get nommed for a paragon.

[Bell]

The sheer embarrassment alone of being wrong here is worth this one imo.

[Hopkirk]

talk to me

[Hopkirk]

I don't want Taylor>Pooky>X.

[Bell]

I don’t know what to say.
Scum and power roles replace out more than town do statistically speaking.
There are no power roles.

If you think the empirical chances are diminished because he made some role spec at the start, that’s cool.

[Hopkirk]

Isn't that by a couple of % points? If there's newer stuff let me know or link it.

I've seen so much garbage 'should we lethal d1', 'shall we all post our reads lists from best to worst every day' and so on (offsite) and it comes from town so much more than scum. The scum were usually the ones who chime in when a couple of people are wasting time on bad setup optimisation/spec imo.

[Bell]

Phone died.

A couple of % points are a couple of percentage points.

I've seen scum with unique role spec, dumb role spec etc.
I've seen town do the same.

Scum however, may have role spec they thought up even before they got their role pm and when they role scum they might go that route to avoid doing nothing.

[Bell]

Also, you need to remember that coming from town so much more than scum is the statistically likely thing by a large margin.

Everything everyone says in this game is statistially more likely to come from town than scum because there are more town than scum.

Unless you control for that you don't rly know what you're lookin' at.

[Hopkirk]

I've got reads over a couple of % points.

I'm working from a baseline of 0 and people going up from stuff I like as town mindset rather than a 75% then adj based on a Bayesian calc. From the second method if you plug it in I wouldn't say I've got enough of a sample size that I can say it's above 76% adj for margin of error.

[Hopkirk]

79%*

[Hopkirk]

Still makes a +ve adj though doesn't it. Observing thing that's more likely to come from town swings it a couple of %points back towards town

[Bell]

Would like to correct myself, Town post more than scum do on average.
so it's even more skewed and needs greater correction. Most of the time you're reading town posts.
Unless you think differently about it.

I understand gradient style. Or parallel read style or feed into human brain pattern recognition computer style for each player and assign points based on whatever variable designations you think about. But that's just, you know, like fluff without any real data. Which is time and effort I don't think most of us have. Or it's not why we're here.

[Bell]

If you give a cogent reason someone's scum I'll probably sheep you.

But for now, I think Pooky's got the cogentish reason.

[Bell]

Also, I guess the votes on toog are kinda gross.
Unless all the scum are off wagon.

[Hopkirk]

You aren't wanting Toogeloo anymore?

[Bell]

I don't remember ever saying I wanted him? I'm ambivalent at best.