Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Endgame]

[Tammy]

Another bust day, so I didn’t really get to put my day one thoughts together.

Diamond sentinel doesn’t feel like he’s actually trying to solve the game. He seems damn near textbook bells partner.

Hopefully I’ll have some time tomorrow.

[Tammy]

(Small nagging voice says there’s some kind of connection between nahdia and midwaybear. But it felt like that with those two and bulge; thought they might be neighbors or something though.)

[Jake The Wolfie]

@mod

Will be V/LA for a few days (3+) due to illness.

[petapan]

(Small nagging voice says there’s some kind of connection between nahdia and midwaybear. But it felt like that with those two and bulge; thought they might be neighbors or something though.)

there's always a chance that the two players who have been townreading each other for a lot of the game are teamed but i somewhat doubt these personalities would do it

[DiamondSentinel]

???

I've been trying to solve the game. I've given my reads multiple times as well as who I'd be down to elim. I've interacted with folks, entertained their questions, etc. What else do you want, me to start dayvigging everyone I remotely scumread?

[midwaybear]

What good does dayvigging do
seems like you are overreacting.

[petapan]

midwaybear/bell:

RVS vote on bell in 45 with "come here". probably meaningless. question about early town reads in 78, "why are you like this" in 80. Votes Bell with a "Why?" in 225 after Bell votes Alisae. When bell replies in 232, midway replies with "That doesn’t help at all. Can you like actually explain out stuff when people ask you instead of just giving vague answers." in 234. exchanged continued in 253, bell questioning midway, midway not understanding in 263. there's a lot of early interaction here i wouldn't expect if midway were teamed with bell. "talk to me, why’re you a grumpy bear?" in 285. midway replies with "This is how I play the game?" in 291. Bell in 318 says "I am officially confused why Midwaybear voted me 3 times." votes him in 326 with "Midwaybear is a goddamned mystery.". midway's response, 369, "I don't think you think I am scum" reads very natural. Does say pooky's vote is worse than Bell's in 472. Bell says "Midwaybear actually looks like vanilla town" in 550. Bell asks midway why his goal was to high post in 707, midway says it's not a helpful question in reply. Bell continues to press him with "I don't believe you." in 713. after continued questioning, midway says "lol what do you want me to say
Just deciding to try something new while bringing back a old aspect. Not much to it" in 724. Bell says he was pissed off midway ignored him in 740. midway replies with "You really thought that was a hard question for scum me to answer? It really wasn't." in 744. again, doesn't look like how he'd talk to a partner. Bell follows up with snark in 749, saying "I guess it was".

Says in 826 "It's not like you are going to get Bell hanged solely on your "gut" not feeling right about him." When I ask him about his bell vote he says "tbh I'm not really reading him one way or the other right now" in 844. Votes pooky in 876 saying "better than Bell for now". Says he didn't like Syr's attitude surrounding Bell" in 1035. However, midway's 1460 says he sympathizes with me for my reply to bell's catchup in 1427. In 1581 he says "Honestly I'm not sure what is so off about Bell. I just voted him originally because I didn't like some of his positions and not because he was "off".", but in 1591 says calling him scum for being different from FGO is an "excuse". In response to gamma in 2328 says "I don't get you more than Bell this game."

When Bell says nothing in my iso tells him i'm town this ggame, midway replies with 2492, bringing his "burden of proof" post right back at him. Bell responds with condescencion in 2494, and midway follows with asking why i'm in his pool. Bell says I could be try hard scum, midway responds with "That really doesn't help justify your read, but ok." in 2504. midwaybear doesn't care when Bell leaves him off is reads list, when Bulge asks about it, in 2704 he says "I don't really see how it's alignment indicative for Bell(yet) and I don't really care how he reads me.". 3046 - "I don't get why Bell is being scumread so much, but I have no objections to hanging him today either. " 3068 says he doesn't like a post of Bell's. Bell asks him what he didn't like about it in 3070. This is notably happening at the same time that Bell is startng to get in a fight with cakez. when Cakez asks to turbo wagon Bell, midway replies with "Well some of your concerns could have been addressed by some of his most recent posts, so I would exercise some caution there." in 3295, then says "I'm fine with going Bell if you still think his scummy-ness extends beyond though." in 3299. in 3332 says "Bell seems to lightly scumread me, so I don't really care to engage there." in 3530 Bell says "I would not ride residual reads on MWB.", pouring an extremely strong glass of wine. maybe notable that bell's list in 3548 actually puts midwaybear at the bottom. midway in 3642 says "This vague style of posting you have is weird to parse through".

Conclusion:

i suppose in some universe you could see this as distancing, but the frequency and strength of the interactions makes me question that. the way midwaybaer reacted to bell scumreading him looked natural. i question whether he would take this approach with a teammate. there's a lot of circumstantial factors here, coming off a game that a decent chunk of the playerlist played in or watched where he got called out as scum pretty fast. he got sold up the river by hi teammates as scum, low confidence player as scum in general, does he choose to interact with a partner so frequently and deliberately while being wary of being caught? i lean toward no. this doesn't look like midwaybear is partnered with bell.

nahdia/bell:

"Word. Story time?" to my early vote on nahdia in 87. asks midway to "walk me through" not thinking nahdia is scum in 586. Makes some post toward Nahdia about assuming someone intended to come off a certain way, don't understand it without context and don't think it's an interaction i can draw anything from. In 2102 Bell asks Nahdia what they and DS think of each other. Some back and forth in 2110. Nahdia talks about being wary of bell because of a past game, says his interactions with alisae didn't sit right in 3563. in 3590 Bell says "@Nahdia, could you clarify what bothers you about those strings of posts I made". Bell in 3806 when the wagon on bulge is close to going through, says says "I feel the better question is why i’m not voting nahdia.". votes them 2 posts later. nahdia doesn't really react. Bell in 3939 says "Even nahdia's whatever, eliminate me post got me shuffling." but clarifies in 3947 it was not enough to move his vote elsewhere.

Conclusion:

There's not a lot of interaction here but that's kind of a function of Nahdia not being that active this game. that can often be a teammate tell but there's nothing overtly suspicious here. bell's vote on nahdia isn't nearly as clearing as i thought, unfortunately. i don't think i'd clear nahdia off interactions with bell. my feelings there are more that they don't have a plausible partner outside bell.

diamondsentinel/bell:

brief neutral question exchange about pooky's early rp in 256/257/258. Bell says "Diamond's entrance is odd" in 552. In 702 DS asks "give me your rational on why you're voting Bell. His is the biggest wagon and I'm curious why." Says "I don't like Bell, but I like his wagon even less. " in 720, follows it by saying it "really pings me as similar to perpetual mylo's string." in 721. that thing where he attacks the bell wagon but mentions he doesn't like bell very strongly feels like an attempt to distance from a partner while defending them from attackers. Again says "Bell is not looking hot at all right now, but that wagon stinks." in 729. 845 puts an attack toward jake, the people who wagoned bell, and then ends with "Bell's response really doesn't make me feel any better about them, but I'm not really sure what else we'd get out of it." It's notable that he launches into an attack on Cabd in 859 when Cabd was the one with strongest Bell read. Noting that in 1450 Bell criticized me for comparing a post from scum in our last game to one of Diamond's posts. Asks DS what he thinks of Nahdia in 2125, DS answers it in 2136. In 2625, says of reading DS's meta "my initial conclusions were that they were town." There's some back and forth questioning between DS and Bell in 2621/2642/2643/2645/2646 that is very neutral. I do not get the sense here that DS is trying to read Bell, curious for a player he had previously said he didn't like. In 2664 Bell says "I think DS can probably be read on whether their posts lean towards a pro-social or anti-social mindset.", then follows it with "So far, I don't have enough from DS to put them higher or lower then where they are." In his reads list in 2923, has "Bell - Null!Scum. Had a couple things here and there that I do not care much for. "

Conclusion

This looks extremely likely to be a partner to Bell. Reaction to the early wagon on Bell was absolutely terrible, kept trying to say bell wasn't great but deflect elsewhere, put him as null-scum, never really tried to solve there, spoke with him basically not at all.

sircakez/bell:

bell gives a "rly" to a somewhat frivolous taylor vote in 672. question about bell knowing about cabd in 696, not really alignment indicative. In 878 cakez says "Is this why there is a Bell wagon? Insider meta that was not really shared with the thread? Hmm ok.." but says "I dig Syr's response here" when syr says he's not okay with killing bell right now. I explain my vote to him and in 888 says "I have not gotten that vibe from Bell. And Cabd's vote remains completely unexplained so not giving me any confidence there." When I point him to Cabd's dream read, he says "I'm honestly baffled a wagon has formed off of this.". It's not impossible for a town player to have this reaction but it's also how I'd expect a teammate to react to an early wagon on a partner they thought seemed baseless. There's a bit of a parallel here between him and DS in that regard. Says of Cabd in 944: "The whole thing where he was so hesitant to reveal the reasoning for the Bell SR despite being convicted about it reeked for one". Asks Cabd about his Bell SR in 1326. Cakez asks Bell to vote taylor with him in 1456, but says a couple posts later in 1462 "it reeks of catchups I used to make as scum. it's not really helpful but it looks good on the surface.". I still can't get over this, it feels like a very unnatural reaction to call Bell scum for it but ask for his vote on a competing wagon rather than joining a wagon on him. there's a reply to bell's questioning in 1467, saying "idk I was trying to go on the safe side". Bell makes a weird comment about "cake clear" in 1959. In 2512 and 2516 Bell asks gamma why he reads Cakez as scum. No followup. Bell makes an excuse for cakez not knowing what's going on ingame in 2577.

In 2616 Cakez says "not much else has really pinged me from Bell iirc".

Bell 2794 "Who gives a shit what cakez reads are?". Defends with "Why would he super bus Taylor as scum?" in 2801 before walking back with remembering she was a traitor.

Cakez again talks about Bell having a scummy catchup post in 2850, Bell responds with 2874, asking "You have?". Cakez re-quote, Bell says "you’re mischaracterizing your initial reaction and your subsequent apporach, imo. ". Cakez then says "yeah it's not as much or quite what I remembered. but I still dislike it for the reasons in that post." with 2878. Then drops a vote on Bell in 3045 when the clears are talking about killing him, Bell retaliates by silently voting him back in 3050. Bickering in 3063/3066. in 3082 says "anyone else notice that Bell's posting reads super differently from his earlier stuff?" which is not an observation that makes much sense. Bell says in 3094 "I’m just waiting for someone to have a shitty vote other than cakes with his trejectory issue where he looked like he got permission to vote me and so he did." 3129 - "Join the Bell wagon choo choo" 3139 - "Bell is just making up reads I think". Somewhat notably Bell asks in 3207, "On a scale of 0 to 10 how dead am I this day phase?" and Cakez responds with "Hopefully 10!" in 3217. follows up with 3218, calling bell's posting "obscenely scummy" and says "his attitude seems so fake and his acknowledgement of basically making up reads also reeks". "why not turbo wagon him?" in 3293. Notably, there is MUCH less pushback from bell on cakez than there was on me or midwaybear. He doesn't really argue with Cakez. Then when there's no momentum on Bell and I'm driving a bulge vote, he switches in 3525, saying "Whatever Bell can wait at least there's an actual wagon forming". Bell's actual reason for moving Cakez down in his poe amounts to "people moved up. so he moved down." (3553) Cakez says "I would argue Bell is not really trying to play either." (3716).

Conclusion

am i biased? the way the read on bell suddenly shifts to "kill him now" with not much of a supporting case behind it looks like a bus to me. it has the feeling of a bus that was anticipating cabd would off bell, where prior to that moment he was somewhat defensive of bell. he was dismissive toward the early wagon on Bell, criticized the catchup post while still asking him to vote with him, which still confuses me. in light of the flip, feels like an attempt to distance while at the same time trying to counterwagon taylor. there's also a thing where bell never really tried to argue much with cakez about his vote on him, the way he did when town players indicated suspicion of him. the attempt to claim credit for what was a very underwhelming push on Bell after his death rubs me all the wrong ways.

[petapan]

so my preferences are the same, will vote ds or cakez today, will not vote midwaybear or nahdia

[SirCakez]

I don't understand why you wouldn't vote Nahdia after reading the Nahdia section of your analysis

[SirCakez]

The sheer lack of interaction between them looks more partner indicative to me

[petapan]

it's unrelated to bell interactions and more based on the fact that i don't see a teammate for them in you/ds, and probably not midwaybear either

[SirCakez]

hm ok

[DiamondSentinel]

What good does dayvigging do
seems like you are overreacting.

It's called hyperbole.

[Tammy]

???

I've been trying to solve the game. I've given my reads multiple times as well as who I'd be down to elim. I've interacted with folks, entertained their questions, etc. What else do you want, me to start dayvigging everyone I remotely scumread?

Yes, you've been playing the game.

You haven't seemed interested in actually solving it.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

DS who do you think are the scum?

[SirCakez]

people should vote so we can actually see where everyone stands

[midwaybear]

DS who do you think are the scum?

I don't find much value behind this question

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

let him answer it

[Tammy]

That was way more detailed than I was going to do in my impressions of day one and possible partner interaction although I was going to include peta, still will!

I agree that Diamond Sentinel feels textbook his partner. That is probably were I'd prefer to go today, but I am worried I'm biased. I haven't town read DS all game, except for moments of hesitation here and there where his paranoia and messiness gave me pause, but when I think of anything else he just doesn't look like he's looking at this game from a town point of view.

I haven't finished rereading day two though and I want to finish that.

[Tammy]

DS who do you think are the scum?

I don't find much value behind this question

?

[DiamondSentinel]

DS who do you think are the scum?

My pool is midway, peta, and nahdia, in that order.

That being said, I'm not sure how I feel about midway and peta together. It's a possibility. Midway has really really been trying to be scumread today, so that's caused a pretty big 180 in my read of him. Peta is def trying to levy a low hanging fruit wagon on me. Nahdia is still making me feel uneasy and have a pretty big gutread about it.

As for Cakez, I really don't see him as super scummy. He

could

still be scum as I've been historically terrible at reading him (like Titus), but I've got a town read on him.

[Tammy]

Earlier you said you could read Titus within 20 posts and that read was rarely wrong

[DiamondSentinel]

Earlier you said you could read Titus within 20 posts and that read was rarely wrong

Because I take whatever read I make and just accept the opposite.

I can count on my read being 100% wrong.

[petapan]

Peta is def trying to levy a low hanging fruit wagon on me.

lol? that is a rather willfully inaccurate summation

[midwaybear]

Let's just hang DS