Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Hoopla]

you got this, lilith;)

[lilith2013]

oh no, I just realized I could have outed a “townread” on you as part of my “oh I was trying to be scummy” but I think it’s too late now

I think I just wait a bit/finish catching up and then be like “oh I got my SS townpings.” Unless this wagon looks like it’s still going through, in which case I think you do what you said so I can look really scummy backing off of you.

[Hoopla]

oh no, I just realized I could have outed a “townread” on you as part of my “oh I was trying to be scummy” but I think it’s too late now

I think I just wait a bit/finish catching up and then be like “oh I got my SS townpings.” Unless this wagon looks like it’s still going through, in which case I think you do what you said so I can look really scummy backing off of you.

maybe let the thread breathe a bit and get all your ducks in a line. there's no need to rush. you have time.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah definitely finish your catchup, and I probably would recommend against saying the scumread was fake and a tactic to avoid pressure. Just say that your read was based on a lack of town-S_S material that you normally see and you're seeing some more of it now. (You don't have to say it makes me town, in fact probably better not to say that, but just that it makes me not as scummy.)

[Hoopla]

wow, lilith's wagon suddenly dropped to L-5.

there's a good chance town's focus will have permanently shifted onto other wagons, or at least to the point where she may not need to claim.

[Hoopla]

lilith could literally lurk out the next little while and let other wagons build.

if her catchup posts are good, she will survive imo.

[Something_Smart]

Well that happened

Unibackup is PGO now which is probably a good thing but could screw us. Probably Hoopla should be making kills, because PGO and watcher are the only roles for which it matters.

[Hoopla]

what a wild day. shame DGB couldn't get in her groove and have fun. she's usually a good influence on the game. having said that, she can occasionally be eerily accurate later in the game.

[Hoopla]

also, it's interesting that PGO fell that low. it means we can start narrowing down who picked what quite a bit. going based on SS's pick data in other games, heres likely what we have:

Dunnstral, skitter, davesaz:

N3-Vig (50%)/Venge (50%)
Watcher
Neighbourizer
UB (80%)/Role Cop (20%)

Jailkeeper

- VT

Uncrowned, Infinity, petapan:

N3-Vig (50%)/Venge (50%)
Watcher
Neighbourizer
UB (80%)/Role Cop (20%)

Jailkeeper

- VT

Cop

- VT

Melanque, JacksonVirgo, TheGoldenParadox, PenguinPower:

N3-Vig (50%)/Venge (50%)
Watcher
Neighbourizer
UB (80%)/Role Cop (20%)

Jailkeeper

- VT

Cop

- VT

1-shot PGO/1-shot Vig

- VT

given watcher & neighbouriser tends to fall down the draft somewhat, it seems quite likely UB is in the top bracket. i think we shouldn't shoot there. dunnstral and davesaz have mis-elim potential, and if skitter is now a PGO, i think she's quite likely to use it tonight as a potential NK target. slight chance of skitter being watched also.

shooting in the second bracket has slightly reduced odds of having the UB as there is another potential pick each of those three players could have made. plus, every slot we go down reduces our odds of hitting the UB, as someone picking it higher will have made them a VT. of those three, uncrowned looks the most town, infinity has some mis-elim potential, but seems dangerous in my eyes. petapan somewhere in between the two on both fronts, though what she did with picking apart DGB's reads posts looks threatening. she has potential to go really big with effort on later days and be an annoyance.

the only group i think we shouldn't consider NK'ing in is the 4's. because i think they'll all come under pressure if i die. so i'd like to keep that group in tact as long as we can. with that said, i actually don't mind a melanque kill. low% of being UB and has a bustling town energy that will only continue to grow. also, i don't think he'll be an easy mis-elim target, and him being killed could frame infinity, so it ticks a lot of boxes.

[Hoopla]

i also agree i should be making the NK.

and i almost think lilith shouldn't use her JK, as there's no role we particularly need to block. so what's the point? we just open up the possibility of her being PGO'd.

we could have her use her action on SS (in spirit or actually, just in case SS gets watched), so SS has the option of claiming a no-result N1 if he claims cop.

[lilith2013]

I’m cool with jking SS, but I think the mena/skitter fight is brewing and if we’re leaving skitter alive, I don’t mind leaving mena alive either to let that simmer. I’d propose an uncrowned kill as an alternative, because I think he’s almost universally townread and it doesn’t incriminate any of us in particular

[Hoopla]

leaving players who could end up getting into deep battles with others in the playerlist is a possible option. melanque going after infinity/skitter could be a useful distraction. the only risk is those players coming to a town/town conclusion on each other.

also, is anyone familiar with melanque? does he tend to move off strong scumreads or stay locked in?

[Hoopla]

if we leave strong players alive instead of NK'ing them, i feel we all need to be distancing more. the stronger the town-pool, the more potential there is for multiple townies to find the correct game-solve. i don't think there is a big risk of anyone solving the game tomorrow, but it's good to be ahead of the curve before the paranoia of strong-player-slots-still-being-alive creeps into the game.

i anticipate going after you tomorrow lilith after reading the meta-dump skitter dropped on you. i'm finding it hard to tell much difference between you town and scumgame though. a lot of one-liners, and it's hard to see much difference in activity/style just by reading your ISO's. do you have any talking points about the differences in the games skitter linked (here) that i could bring up as "observations"?

[Hoopla]

on another note:

since there's no 1-shot vig in the game, the only role that has any value in redirecting is the N3-vig. my gut says it's dunnstral, but hopefully by the time N3 rolls around it is already dead, or we have it narrowed down to just a couple of slots.

[lilith2013]

do you want the analysis that leads you to scumreading me or the analysis that leads you to townreading me?

[lilith2013]

oh the former, sorry

[lilith2013]

I'd say that I try to imitate my townstyle as scum, and have some success doing it on an interaction-by-interaction basis, but I have difficulty keeping it up at a sort of macro level - there's usually some evidence that town!me has underlying reasonings or thought processes when I'm asking my one liners that flow through from one post to the next, and I lack that as scum.

[lilith2013]

honestly this is hard to do without giving you too much information that you shouldn't really have without playing multiple games with me, if that makes sense

[Hoopla]

honestly this is hard to do without giving you too much information that you shouldn't really have without playing multiple games with me, if that makes sense

yeah totally.

i'm finding it hard to come up with any real/plausible insights. so i think "observing" something too revealing would look weird.

[lilith2013]

if that's the case, is there stuff in this game that you can push me for?

[Hoopla]

if that's the case, is there stuff in this game that you can push me for?

i'll likely be pushing some wagonomics/PoE stuff. i think the rise and fall of your wagon D1 was the most interesting thing to occur, so i'll focus on that to start with.

also, your low activity is quite questionable despite your illness. i think that angle has good potential for us to get in some good scum theatre.

[Something_Smart]

Hmm

I like Uncrowned kill, I like Menalque kill. I would like to avoid bussing, but fortunately I have a reputation for fencesitting especially when it comes to lilith so that shouldn't be a huge problem.

I agree with not killing anyone above me, I agree with not kill any 4's. I agree with not killing Infinity, so that would narrow the kill down to the two of those or petapan. I don't see any particular reason to kill him over Uncrowned/Menalque so I think that's a good shortlist.

There's also the option to no-kill. This can maybe faux-confirm lilith or me (if I claim doc), and lilith also might be able to spin it as a fake guilty on someone. I've seen townies get executed multiple times based on stupid jailkeeper "guilties" that turned out to be wrong. In fact that would probably be super towny for her, if we no-killed and then she came out heavily suggesting a guilty and then eventually claimed jailkeeper who targeted someone suspicious like Infinity.

If we don't no-kill, then between Uncrowned/Menalque I'd probably lean Uncrowned, because of higher PR chances, and because Uncrowned is pretty universally townread whereas Menalque might get himself scumread (though he probably won't) and also Menalque townreads me and Hoopla.

[Something_Smart]

also, is anyone familiar with melanque? does he tend to move off strong scumreads or stay locked in?

I believe in my experience his reads have been pretty volatile.

[Hoopla]

i actually don't mind a no-kill to improve lilith's position if/when she claims JK, as well as your own if you go for a doc claim. there's no other role-related explanation for a no-kill other than JK/Doc, which we have (essentially). i could even have the doc claim up my sleeve too, given i can't be cop-PoE'd like you can.

the only downside is not keeping the game in even numbers which is advantageous for us, and will give the town an extra execution. this is balanced out by causing the N3 vig to be unable to shoot without costing an execution, so it's not a big downside.

a no-kill guarantees not getting hit by a PGO tonight too.

[Hoopla]

yeah, lets actually go for a no-kill.

you and i should breadcrumb N1 doc targets at the start of D2. then if either of us get in trouble with being wagoned at any point we have that as a claim option up our sleeve.