Death Curse

[MURDERCAT]

Ok look, LLD was town for day 1 because trying to sort her preflips would be a huge pain. We really needed to hit scum to see if she would just die but because we didn't now we actually have to see if she is scum. I think there is some evidence she is scum:

- She never reevaluated the Noraa read but was still really willing to go for Toog despite her tunnel on Noraa. Yes the plan was to go for Noraa in 3rd slot, but she then shifted gears towards Hopkirk? I think town LLD should in a rage about not hitting Noraa there if the tunnel is real. I also feel like the let's be sure to hit scum 3rd slot is anti-town, but that's just my opinion.
- LLD's anger about Noraa seemed fake to me. There were overreactions there that, IMO, seemed off. I know LLD is an emotional player, but I don't think you get that angry about caught scum.
- The Hopkirk read was bad. I had hopkirk pegged as town and LLD's reasoning about the poetry was super off.
- I haven't seen any deep reads from LLD. It's a lot of surface level stuff and I think we are deep enough into this game to get some real content.

Here's the biggest reason I think we should "180" as I think Shelly put it. On day 1, in my mind there was an early D1 town block of {me, LLD, Pooky, MUSH}. These four players were generally accepted to be not in the elim pool. Given the knowledge that I am town, the odds that the others players are also randomly town is 0.376 (14/19*13/18*12/17). The odds of randomly getting a T>T>T on D1 given that I am not eliminated and I know I am town, is 0.472 (14/19*14/18*14/17). Given that we ended up with a T>T>T the new conditional probability that {LLD, Pooky, MUSH} are all town (again, from my POV knowing that I am town) is 0.135. That is a pretty serious drop that, FMPOV, means we should be reevaluating players we considered to be town.

The numbers would be different for all of us, but the general idea holds. The fact that we didn't hit scum yesterday means we need to broaden our lim pool for today as there is a higher likelihood that our initial reads were wrong.

[Tayl0r Swift]

VOTE: Toogeloo

Not sure it's right but definitely not sure it's wrong and we need a wagon.

With thanks to Titus for making the ISO accessible without any actual effort involved for me.

GEE THAT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE TITUS IS DRIVING THE WAGON EITHER, TAYL0R. HUH. ISN'T THAT ODD.

I'm taking you out of my townbloc. You come across like a bad player, but you aren't this dumb.

thats uncalled for

[MURDERCAT]

LLD I believe you are sick by the way, and I'm sorry about it. But the fact that you aren't dead means we actually have to try to sort you now.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Here's the problem I have. Pooky and Taylor as possible scum but are they really theater?

rofl

[MURDERCAT]

Pooky please tell me why you think LLD is town despite missing on Hopkirk without saying she's obvtown and nothing else

[Tayl0r Swift]

Tayl0r is not that dangerous to town really. She's LHF as either alignment, and her ISO is going to be full of red herring associatives because she can't help herself when it comes to no-hopers. Fred's an easy elimination too, but there's SO MUCH friction there that I have to imagine it's because the scumteam doesn't like his or Zdenek's (not sure which) ISO for them.

me being willing to go against the grain doesnt make me LHF. its pro-town and important that we dont go around shooting people just because theyre a bit different, as you well know.

[Titus]

Here's the problem I have. Pooky and Taylor as possible scum but are they really theater?

rofl

Then I get a response like this...

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Tayl0r, why do you believe that Pooky’s scum but Fred is town? Both of them are hard pushing you, so what’s the difference?

well neither read has much of anything to do with their read on me

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky please tell me why you think LLD is town despite missing on Hopkirk without saying she's obvtown and nothing else

when did i say she is obvtown

[MURDERCAT]

Pooky please tell me why you think LLD is town despite missing on Hopkirk without saying she's obvtown and nothing else

when did i say she is obvtown

I was just preempting the response I expected, I assumed you were still town reading her

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

based on what

[Noraa]

Just now did I realize what a big mess this actually is. Murder's actually right. Our reads have all basically been terrible :/
Legit almost forgot LLD was playing. So I understand she was sick but each time she came back, she pushed a townie. From my perspective this is much more obvious considering the only people she's pushed are a conftown(he died) and me.

[Titus]

Murder, did you see anything outright manipulative from LLD?

[Noraa]

I would bet that in the "locktown" pool from yesterday, there is at least one scum.

[Tayl0r Swift]

nah i think its a bad wagon, but this whole time ive been saying theres probably a better than random chance noraa flips scum, just not enough of a chance that she deserved the pressure shes under. its whatever, but its kinda dumb.

So, Tayl0r Swift, you thought that there is a better than random chance that Noraa flips scum, but you townread her?

Fred is right here. @Noraa what do you think about 316?

Don't really remember seeing this post but looking at it specifically rn ... it really do be a bit fishy fish :/
I am still a bit paranoid that Taylor is low-key giving me a town pass for no reason. I mean I asked for reasons and there weren't really any ....
But also like if I remember correctly, she kinda did that as well in random facts were she was vt.
she's being fencesitty but then her vibe also reminds me of OTD and random facts(both she was town).
But then the town pass is reminding me more of trials(she was scum) than random facts
and now im just ..... idk.

my meta is not nearly as simple as any of you make it out to be. im highly aware of my meta so saying "taylor did this and was town, but this while scum" is probably not going to give you any useful insights. its just wifom.

[MURDERCAT]

based on what

Well to my knowledge you haven't said otherwise and early on I believe you were town reading her. What is your current read?

[Tayl0r Swift]

Ok look, LLD was town for day 1 because trying to sort her preflips would be a huge pain. We really needed to hit scum to see if she would just die but because we didn't now we actually have to see if she is scum. I think there is some evidence she is scum:

- She never reevaluated the Noraa read but was still really willing to go for Toog despite her tunnel on Noraa. Yes the plan was to go for Noraa in 3rd slot, but she then shifted gears towards Hopkirk? I think town LLD should in a rage about not hitting Noraa there if the tunnel is real. I also feel like the let's be sure to hit scum 3rd slot is anti-town, but that's just my opinion.
- LLD's anger about Noraa seemed fake to me. There were overreactions there that, IMO, seemed off. I know LLD is an emotional player, but I don't think you get that angry about caught scum.
- The Hopkirk read was bad. I had hopkirk pegged as town and LLD's reasoning about the poetry was super off.
- I haven't seen any deep reads from LLD. It's a lot of surface level stuff and I think we are deep enough into this game to get some real content.

Here's the biggest reason I think we should "180" as I think Shelly put it. On day 1, in my mind there was an early D1 town block of {me, LLD, Pooky, MUSH}. These four players were generally accepted to be not in the elim pool. Given the knowledge that I am town, the odds that the others players are also randomly town is 0.376 (14/19*13/18*12/17). The odds of randomly getting a T>T>T on D1 given that I am not eliminated and I know I am town, is 0.472 (14/19*14/18*14/17). Given that we ended up with a T>T>T the new conditional probability that {LLD, Pooky, MUSH} are all town (again, from my POV knowing that I am town) is 0.135. That is a pretty serious drop that, FMPOV, means we should be reevaluating players we considered to be town.

The numbers would be different for all of us, but the general idea holds. The fact that we didn't hit scum yesterday means we need to broaden our lim pool for today as there is a higher likelihood that our initial reads were wrong.

it does suggest that scum were in positions of influence. it doesnt necessarily mean that scum were in that so-called townbloc. but if you think scum was in there, why not look at pooky.

[Noraa]

my meta is not nearly as simple as any of you make it out to be.

then why is mine like an open book?

[MURDERCAT]

Murder, did you see anything outright manipulative from LLD?

I mean she led the charge on Noraa and Hopkirk and I think that some of the emotional posts were possibly used as a deflection. Also let's not forget that Isis had a strong SR there and she is conf town now.

[MURDERCAT]

but if you think scum was in there, why not look at pooky.

I am also looking at Pooky and have been since D1

[Tayl0r Swift]

Spoiler:

¶

Votecount 2.3

[6] Fredrick A Campbell:

Bell, MUSHSHAGANA, Flea The Magician, PookyTheMagicalBear, shellyc, UNOwen

[2] Noraa:

Titus, Adorable

[1] Fidget:

Tayl0r Swift

[1] Adorable:

Theta Alpine

[1] shellyc:

Fidget

[1] Tayl0r Swift:

Fredrick A Campbell

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear:

Noraa

[4] Not Voting:

MURDERCAT, Lady Lambdadelta, Lapsa, Gloria Cleary

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-11-06 21:29:24).

Joint moderator ISO.

¶

Votecount 1.20

(FINAL)

[11] Toogeloo:

Hopkirk, MURDERCAT, Titus, Toogeloo, Theta Alpine, MUSHSHAGANA, Lady Lambdadelta, Noraa, UNOwen, shellyc, Bell

HAMMER

[2] Tayl0r Swift:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Bell

[2] Bell:

Tayl0r Swift, Vaxkiller

[2] shellyc:

Fidget, Flea The Magician

[1] Noraa:

Adorable

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear

Gloria Cleary

[1] Adorable:

Lapsa

[1] Not Voting:

Zdenek

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-28 03:35:35).

Joint moderator ISO.

people who are scum:
fidget
bell
pooky
unowen
titus
toogeloo
shelly?

notice any patterns?

patterns: bell, shelly, uno all on the wagon together. shelly and uno voted side-by-side both days. theres a miniscule chance of that happening randomly with townies. today pooky is voting with shelly and uno.
both days fidget is on a shelly vanity wagon without saying much or doing anything to build the wagon.

[Tayl0r Swift]

my meta is not nearly as simple as any of you make it out to be.

then why is mine like an open book?

you arent aware of your meta, as youve said repeatedly.

[Noraa]

>:(

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Tayl0r, I'm rude there because that entire line of argument does not hold at all. Like, I can't even imagine a world where there's anything to look at there. I am mentally incapable of wrenching those wagons around to where it looks like your assertion can be even kind of true remotely in any world ever. Also, you're LHF because you never have good, solid reasoning for doing what you do, not because you're defending no-hopers. No-hoper defending just makes your ISO useless for finding associatives.

LLD's sudden activity drop could be scum indicative but the posting was like ... trying to find an ideal town strategy, hard pushes, making herself as bright and easy to hit of a target as possible for scum, etc. Then she gets sick and the posting stops dead. I have a feeling she expected to hit scum first pass and get taken out fast -- but we hit all town, so I can see her still recovering from illness, no plans for what to do on Day 2, reads are trash and the coffee does nothing, and just saying "fuck it, lurktime". If that continues for all of Day 2, I'm inclined to press there, but I think we can give her a break for most of the rest of the dayphase.

I think Pooky and Tayl0r are never scum together, and Pooky and Noraa are never scum together, and that Noraa and Tayl0r are likely scum together (the tenor of Noraa's protest of a townread continues to sound off-pitch, though I think not outside the realm of her town games). I hate Pooky's play here, but I'm still holding that at null until I have the energy to ISO dive that. So... so... so many posts.



PEDIT:
Tayl0r:
Okay, the Fidget argument holds. I think we can't say that for UNOwen and Shelly, because of the unvoting and revoting on Fred causing the vote timing argument to be false there on Fred (UNOwen only voted Fred once afaik) and just how slow Toog's wagon was when it got to UNOwen and Shelly (remember they were hoping for a counterwagon during the Toog push -- this IS scum indicative to me, but it means the votecount doesn't work for your argument vs. them necessarily).

The Bell argument is trash because of the differences involved: Bell was initially very against hitting Toog. Like, incredibly against. Meanwhile, Bell started the Fred wagon. These are so different of situations I don't think you can call them indicative yet.

Finally, none of them was driving the Toog wagon. That was MURDERCAT and Hopkirk. It's a stretch to call UNOwen a driver for Fred, since it's mostly me at this point. Bell started it but hasn't been posting much since, shelly went hard for a few posts, then got distracted by you, then came back, then got distracted by you again, so I think saying she's driving Fred's wagon is a stretch too.

If you're only looking at who started each wagon.... MURDERCAT for Toog, Bell for Fred. I was second on board (IIRC) both times.

So sure, I give you Fidget, and I think there's an argument (but a hell of a reach of one) for UNOwen and Shelly. But those are not what you said before. You said the same people were driving the wagons. That is profoundly, undeniably false on every level. Furthermore, even if we assume a different definition of driving, it's false. Furthermore, even if we assume you meant "same alignment" rather than "same people", it fails (unless you scumread me and MURDERCAT). Furthermore, if we give every possible benefit of the doubt while taking your scumreads at face value, it remains stubbornly, unmovingly false. It's so false it is false in every possible world simultaneously unless you are outright lying about your reads with regards to me and MURDERCAT, which should take you out of my townbloc /anyway/. That deserves some amount of punishment.

[MURDERCAT]

LLD's sudden activity drop could be scum indicative but the posting was like ... trying to find an ideal town strategy, hard pushes, making herself as bright and easy to hit of a target as possible for scum, etc. Then she gets sick and the posting stops dead. I have a feeling she expected to hit scum first pass and get taken out fast -- but we hit all town, so I can see her still recovering from illness, no plans for what to do on Day 2, reads are trash and the coffee does nothing, and just saying "fuck it, lurktime". If that continues for all of Day 2, I'm inclined to press there, but I think we can give her a break for most of the rest of the dayphase.

You should read an LLD scum game if you haven't, here is the one we played together long ago: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=66816