Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Uncrowned]

How did you come to the conclusion that all the 4s have three people they can't be in a team with, and why are you so certain that the single number players have more possibilities?

Or is this based off the assumption that there's a maximum of one scum in the 4s?

i came to that conclusion based on the 15 times this setup has been run, no scumteam has doubled up their numbers. the cost of giving up PR's isn't really worth the WIFOM.

Okay, that makes sense.

[Infinity 324]

Lilith being redirected to the NK target is a possibility for what happened too, maybe scum though she was a cop

[Infinity 324]

Scratch that, cop is paired with redirector. So the most likely way for redirecting to be involved in this is for scum to redirect lilith to the player who made the kill. Seems unlikely (why don't they redirect to a different mafia member) but a possibility.

[Hoopla]

oh yes, redirection.

low% branches of the tree but worth mentioning.

[Hoopla]

@infinity

i don't think your JV vote is going anywhere. wanna bounce and help kickstart this hot new dunnstral wagon?

you seemed to be mulling him over recently.

[Infinity 324]

VOTE: dunnstral sure.

I do agree that people tend to overestimate their scumhunting abilities. Still think JV is very likely the 1 scum in the 4s but

[Hoopla]

also, i am dying of anticipation of who SS is going to vote first.

who's it gonna be

whoooo's it gonna beeeee

[Uncrowned]

Infinity can you explain your TGP TR?

I think JV is the second most likely to be scum in the 4s from a scumhunting perspective (or lack thereof) as they haven't really made many moves outside of the consistent Peta read.

However, I think JV tonally wise has been good and there's been moments where I've read their posts and been like "holy shit this is exactly how I remember town!JV playing"

[Infinity 324]

There doesn't seem to be a coherent plan behind what they're doing, they're not trying to look like they're solving. (see 2108 I guess). 2085 felt like towny energy, and 1912 felt like a town "aha" moment.

[Uncrowned]

Eh, I just don't really see it compared to the case I've established. I'd urge you to reconsider but Dunn isn't a bad alternative as of right now.

[Infinity 324]

The problem is that your case isn't very convincing to me because I don't see flip-flopping and weak reasoning as scumtells in the general case. I try to match emotion and tone to players' behavior to see whether more sense as town vs. scum, and here it feels like it matches up much better if TGP is town.

[the worst]

vote count 2.14

TheGoldenParadox (5)

: Uncrowned, Best Bird, skitter30, Menalque, petapan

Menalque (3)

: lilith2013, JacksonVirgo, Dunnstral

Dunnstral (2)

: Hoopla, Infinity 324

Infinity 324 (1)

: TheGoldenParadox

Best Bird (1)

: davesaz

Not voting

: Something_Smart

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-13 13:00:00)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- skitter30 v/la fridays & saturdays
- quack

[Uncrowned]

This isn't the case for everyone, but I believe generally that emotion/tone are easier for scum to fake than having good progressions and votes that appear natural.

TGP's progressions aren't great and their is a pattern already appearing where they avoid interacting with wagons, only to jump on them without making points about said wagons prior.

[Uncrowned]

To be clear though, I do think that tone and emotion have a place and are important in terms of figuring out alignment. That's even what I've been using to justify not having JV as scum. However, I think the difference between the two slots is that TGP has exhibited more things that are likely to come from scum than JV has.

[Hoopla]

This isn't the case for everyone, but I believe generally that emotion/tone are easier for scum to fake than having good progressions and votes that appear natural.

TGP's progressions aren't great and their is a pattern already appearing where they avoid interacting with wagons, only to jump on them without making points about said wagons prior.

what do you make of characters that abstain from voting & participating in wagons?

[Uncrowned]

In a vacuum I think it's more likely to come from scum and I think that even if it's coming from a town, it can be negative to the overall town play since we're not able to analyze voting, which can be a key component to sorting.

When I think of social deduction games I've played both online and in person, people who sit on the fence, go under the radar, or make attempts to be unpolarizing are the ones who are likely to be scum. People who don't vote or participate in wagons can fall under this category.

If it's a general playstyle thing that someone often exhibits than it's NAI.

[Infinity 324]

people who sit on the fence, go under the radar, or make attempts to be unpolarizing are the ones who are likely to be scum

TGP has been the total opposite of this.

Besides that I give up trying to explain my townread.

[Uncrowned]

That's not why I'm scumreading him though? I'm scumreading him for how he's interacted with wagons.

Thinking that EVERY scum sits on the fence or tries to go under the radar would end up with town losing a lot of games. A game I remember vividly involving Flavor Leaf had him being the most aggressive player in the lobby, with the most "hot takes" and polarizing actions... and he was scum. It's not a one size fits all type of thing.

[Uncrowned]

Sorry, I meant they not him.

[Uncrowned]

Honestly the fact you think my SR on TGP is because I think he's going "under the radar" is concerning. It makes me think you're either not reading my case properly or that you're conf!bias to the belief of Town!TGP.

[Infinity 324]

Never said you were scumreading TGP for that reason but doing the opposite of something scummy is generally towny

Like they're doing things that clearly draws attention to themselves in a way that scum don't like to

[Uncrowned]

Oh, okay. My mistake.

I won't keep beating this argument in to avoid cluttering the game.

Unrelated but kind of related: Do you have any recent scum games I could look over?

[Uncrowned]

Also I hope I wasn't coming off as condescending or anything during this back and forth lol if so my apologies

[Infinity 324]

Nah, you're good. Unfortunately I recently came back to mafia after a hiatus. But here are a couple scumgames of mine from before that.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... er_sort=Go

[TheGoldenParadox]

That's not why I'm scumreading him though? I'm scumreading him for how he's interacted with wagons.

Thinking that EVERY scum sits on the fence or tries to go under the radar would end up with town losing a lot of games. A game I remember vividly involving Flavor Leaf had him being the most aggressive player in the lobby, with the most "hot takes" and polarizing actions... and he was scum. It's not a one size fits all type of thing.

flavor leaf won the don corleone scummy and is probably the best scumplayer on this site today.
how- how do you say "people who do x are likely to be scummy, tgp is doing the opposite of x, but tgp is still scum because i saw

flavor fucking leaf

do the opposite of x too"
like i feel like you're confbiased into thinking i'm scum and refuse to see the other side
i'm pretty lhf and my wagon interaction has been fairly typical of town!me but i haven't been opportunistic nor have i joined wagons in a way that benefits scum
the dgb wagon was probably going to go through with or without my vote
my vote could not have really affected the menal wagon either with its placement
like i'm really struggling to see how you look at my votes and see scum motivation please relook at them