Death Curse

[MURDERCAT]

Too bad everyone is already town reading me

[UNOwen]

Town:
MUSH
Bell
MURDERCAT
Gloria ?
Taylor ?
Pooky ??
Noraa ????
Theta ????????

Dunno:
DGB
Titus
Flea

Good curse targets:
shelly
Adorable
Fidget

Obviously I don't believe all of the curse group are scum together. My thought was that Bell and MUSH both suspected shelly (MUSH recently, Bell less so) which meant neither was cursed so that shelly could dodge the scroll like she dodges my questions. But Gloria raises a good point that Fidget is a possibility here, both had mentioned suspecting her too. Between Fidget and Adorable, Fidget admittedly makes for a cleaner partner with Fred due to the confused "townread" and the lack of WIFOM necessary. Scum Fidget would mean shelly looks much better (and definitely clear Adorable) so I might not be giving the idea as much credence as I should because of that.

[Fidget]

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

really? ok why are you ok with being scrolled third?

[MURDERCAT]

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

really? ok why are you ok with being scrolled third?

My thoughts as well

[Fidget]

Fred hurting Adorable then switching to LLD makes me scum because Adorable would pass the scroll to me?

Why would Fred!scum ever give the scroll to Adorable at all?

I am going to be very unhappy if LLD passes to Noraa after all this.

Actually yeah maybe Fidget after all, that "town read/no I'm not townreading them/well not anymore" stuff was quite weird.

You are killing me solely off of how Fred interacted with me?

UNOwen's post on #4961 makes me lean more on Fidget being scum since she mentioned omgus. Fidget should have already known before when this game started that I omgus as town alot and Fidget complaining that I suspect players who vote me is a red flag. Hopkirk also made some good points on Fidget being scum. If I am wrong on Fidget and she turns out to be town, then that means Fidget played a very bad town game.

Your reads on D1 were poor, yes, although that's not the meat of it. I want to kill you based off your Noraa/Fred interactions which you don't seem to want to talk about for some reason.

Bad town game is.. lol. Sorry for not being able to read your mind, Adorbs.

Presuming Fred is indeed scum (and it

is

unlikely he would curse LLD without a word otherwise) I agree that Adorable has good odds of being scum now. Thought she was town because of the cool reaction to the scroll threat, but Fred!scum means she would've known all along what was going to happen so it's not worth anything. Red Adorable flip would be useful for hard clearing Fidget and Theta too. Would be my second choice after shelly.

Fred/shelly/Adorable/DGB/???? <- maybe scum team is something like this.

Oh yeah we're winning this game

[Tayl0r Swift]

fidget and shelly are still scum. adorable is still probtown, but not sure. i still dont see why pooky is town here. titus is still probably scum, or at least titus has done nothing to change my mind, and she is growing increasingly lurky

[Tayl0r Swift]

oh yeah and uno is still scum

[Fidget]

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

really? ok why are you ok with being scrolled third?

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

really? ok why are you ok with being scrolled third?

My thoughts as well

What? I assume this would happen on the next day. You find it hard to believe that I'd blow myself up alongside two of my greater scumreads?

[Noraa]

I interpreted it the way Fidget most likely wanted it to come off. She wants her, Shelly, and Adorable to die tomorrow with her most likely being the second scroll.

[Fidget]

Down for removing myself/Adorable/shelly.

Oh I meant all three of us tomorrow, one out of the three of us right now.

[Adorable]

Fred hurting Adorable then switching to LLD makes me scum because Adorable would pass the scroll to me?

Why would Fred!scum ever give the scroll to Adorable at all?

I am going to be very unhappy if LLD passes to Noraa after all this.

Actually yeah maybe Fidget after all, that "town read/no I'm not townreading them/well not anymore" stuff was quite weird.

You are killing me solely off of how Fred interacted with me?

UNOwen's post on #4961 makes me lean more on Fidget being scum since she mentioned omgus. Fidget should have already known before when this game started that I omgus as town alot and Fidget complaining that I suspect players who vote me is a red flag. Hopkirk also made some good points on Fidget being scum. If I am wrong on Fidget and she turns out to be town, then that means Fidget played a very bad town game.

Your reads on D1 were poor, yes, although that's not the meat of it. I want to kill you based off your Noraa/Fred interactions which you don't seem to want to talk about for some reason.

Bad town game is.. lol. Sorry for not being able to read your mind, Adorbs.

Presuming Fred is indeed scum (and it

is

unlikely he would curse LLD without a word otherwise) I agree that Adorable has good odds of being scum now. Thought she was town because of the cool reaction to the scroll threat, but Fred!scum means she would've known all along what was going to happen so it's not worth anything. Red Adorable flip would be useful for hard clearing Fidget and Theta too. Would be my second choice after shelly.

Fred/shelly/Adorable/DGB/???? <- maybe scum team is something like this.

Oh yeah we're winning this game

I pretty much said earlier I scum read Noraa. Me being scum and continuing to vote Noraa when she was being town read by some players makes no sense and I also said earlier I was wary scum were forming town core for each other who wants to make friends with town. Only interaction I had with Fred was when he put a placeholder tag on me. Fred said he is town and I thought he was town who was going to give the scroll to me.

[MURDERCAT]

Shooting LLD is not terrible IMO

Congratulations, you have managed to make yourself null read by me when I was townreading you earlier.

Based on this and knowledge that I'm town I'm kind of plus town points for adorable for the Fred stuff

[Fidget]

I pretty much said earlier I scum read Noraa. Me being scum and continuing to vote Noraa when she was being town read by some players makes no sense and I also said earlier I was wary scum were forming town core for each other who wants to make friends with town. Only interaction I had with Fred was when he put a placeholder tag on me. Fred said he is town and I thought he was town who was going to give the scroll to me.

Except for the fact other players suspected Noraa and she was the counterwagon to Fred? Your reasoning for Noraa being scum was insane meta, and you dismissed the Fred scumcase because it was meta based? Scum benefits from not bussing here? Am I such a terrible town player for saying this?

You having a history of scumreading Noraa is perfect reasoning for you to not switch. I refuse to believe you play scum in such a predetermined way. Earlier you were like "Do you seriously think I look into Noraa's meta as scum?" too. Are you claiming to be super low effort as scum? You're supposed to emulate town as scum. Why would scum!you avoid doing these things, at all?

[Adorable]

@Fidget You have been asking why would Fred scum give the scroll to me and scum must have thought I would give the scroll to Noraa.

[UNOwen]

You are killing me solely off of how Fred interacted with me?

Well you're still not my preference of the three but pretty much yes that's why you're in the kill zone. Would be a weak town lean like Theta outside of that, mostly because I agree with your perspective of the game but I can't deny that Fred's awkwardness about how he was reading you looks bad. You're a decent explanation for the LLD kill if I'm wrong about shelly too.

[MURDERCAT]

Who would scum think mush would shoot?

[UNOwen]

Based on this and knowledge that I'm town I'm kind of plus town points for adorable for the Fred stuff

I don't get it?

[Fidget]

@Fidget You have been asking why would Fred scum give the scroll to me and scum must have thought I would give the scroll to Noraa.

If that were the goal, he'd have just given it to LLD, the most vocal opponent of Noraa, off the bat. I thought it was pretty obvious you would give the scroll to me.

I assume you just got hurt for WIFOM, or Fred just wanted to keep pretending to be town for some reason. I had just got done casing you and he voted you as a result of that case. It faintly makes me think you're scum for it but mostly just makes me want to ignore it.

Who would scum think mush would shoot?

This is biiiiig.

[Adorable]

I pretty much said earlier I scum read Noraa. Me being scum and continuing to vote Noraa when she was being town read by some players makes no sense and I also said earlier I was wary scum were forming town core for each other who wants to make friends with town. Only interaction I had with Fred was when he put a placeholder tag on me. Fred said he is town and I thought he was town who was going to give the scroll to me.

Except for the fact other players suspected Noraa and she was the counterwagon to Fred? Your reasoning for Noraa being scum was insane meta, and you dismissed the Fred scumcase because it was meta based? Scum benefits from not bussing here? Am I such a terrible town player for saying this?

You having a history of scumreading Noraa is perfect reasoning for you to not switch. I refuse to believe you play scum in such a predetermined way. Earlier you were like "Do you seriously think I look into Noraa's meta as scum?" too. Are you claiming to be super low effort as scum? You're supposed to emulate town as scum. Why would scum!you avoid doing these things, at all?

When I am scum reading a player, I vote for my scum reads and town should always vote on their scum reads. Scum are the ones who have to be careful on their reads.

By the way, that's not how I play as scum. I only have 3 completed scum games and first completed game I was distancing with a scum buddy and afterwards I played passive and voted no one, second completed scum game I fake claimed vt in a mass claim and was forced to get in a 1v1 because of my claim since players were suspecting scum to be in a vt claim, third completed scum game I played so passive and I voted no one.

[MURDERCAT]

Based on this and knowledge that I'm town I'm kind of plus town points for adorable for the Fred stuff

I don't get it?

I think this is a kind of standard scum play of trying to throw shit around, it seems kinda newb scum to say this if I'm being honest. So I think consistent with that would be fred doing the same thing to adorable. It's not a deep read but just something I noticed.

[UNOwen]

Re: MUSH

This:

Spoiler:

Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.

What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?

Nothing stops it. I've already been wrong once this game (Hopkirk -- I was fairly sure Toog was town but was feeling time pressure, and I needed to dig into Vax before I had an opinion, then that became irrelevant). No one is immune to being wrong, or we could pick that person to do all the science for the rest of us.

I would have thought that was self-evident, though, so I didn't say it. Also, what's the point? Confidence lets me get ahead of the game on a red flip, and honestly if we don't hit scum this pass I think we're in for a long, grueling, miserable late game loss anyway, so confidence also keeps my interest alive.

I do think that scum is in the townblocs and sitting pretty, though. I think Fred's wagon stalled and they had over-distanced from each other too hard to create a useful narrative for building a counterwagon in time. Hence being in the townblocs -- we have a lot of prominent players who don't like each other but get a ton of townreads from the outside. Lurkers could naked-vote a different wagon, or Adorable could do another pass at Noraa though I think that ship has sailed -- oh wait, Adorable DID do that, so sure, Adorable can be scum, whatever.

But this doesn't account well for many -- you have to presume most of the scum is in lurkslots (which makes yesterday look like a freak coincidence where we precisely miss the few scum in the category) or that most of the scum is in consensus scumreads (which is weird since it's mostly consensus town slots getting those out of trouble, e.g. me with Noraa) or that the scum has at least some presence in townblocs. Which means that our townreads are going to be covering for 2-4 scum.

IF I am right about that, we need to rely on scrolled town shooting from the hip and taking no direction in the process, because scum is inside the town decision loop and building our consensus for us. If we let town help direct scroll-passes, scum that has near-universal townreads gets to control where it lands, and we never hit two scum in a day.

It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?

Shelly looks awful here if Fred flips red, not because of her position in the vote-counts, but because she jumped on, off, back on, back off of the wagon (and I don't recall her getting back on at the end) and kept trying to get attention spotlighting her when she hopped off.
Adorable looks sorta bad here if Fred's red, because of the eleventh hour Noraa push long after everyone else has sort of ruled Noraa out (though I'm reconsidering for the reasons I'm going into here).
I and Bell (but more me) look pretty bad in a world where Fred flips green, because we were the /primary drivers/ of this wagon, especially me. I think this is less useful for overall sorting, because I do believe my reasons for the scumread were damned good, and it's the ...what, second time Bell has shown animation about a wagon? Maybe even first. Also the first day's scroll hits show that town can't find town very well here, which does also diminish the degree to which we look bad. Or I'm biased and will be eliminated afterwards, but as I said: confidence, etc.!

This:

Spoiler:

No aggressive resistance to it, Tayl0r. Lots of more or less passive resistance, though. Resistance doesn't always take the form of "STOP NOW OR ELSE".

Shelly trying to pull votes onto different wagons (twice), Adorable attempting to resurrect a long-dead wagon, Gloria requiring a knockdown case that tickled her specific reads, MURDERCAT initially trying to resist softly then realizing that maybe their reads suck, Pooky trying to put more attention on you and themselves while the wagon was at a lull point. Add in you and Fred, and yeah, that's way more players than there are scum, but keep in mind scum distancing as well here -- defending too directly ties players to their scumbuddies. In a case where that scumbuddy isn't likely to go down, it's fairly safe. But Fred's wagon was more of a when than an if: his predecessor was Maximum Scum and his play was scummy even by the unique standards you have to read him by.

So passive defense is more likely for scum in such a position, because if they defend too hard it guarantees town goes 2-for-1 instead of 1-for-2. The scum team wants nothing less than that, because that's the path to a town win at this state (where we've already gone one day without hitting scum).

And this:

Spoiler:

For me, Fidget, Fred coming up red makes you more likely to be scum. Mostly because for the first time this game, you jumped -- and you were the hammer vote.

It's a minor shift, but significant. I see a Fidget+Shelly+Fred world as more likely than a Fidget+any-combo-without-Fred one. That said, I have other places I'd want to check before you.

Were the quotes that I was thinking of. Didn't pay attention to the third quote until Gloria raised her concerns and I looked back to consider Fidget. It's possible that scum might've thought Fidget was in danger there because of that, but I'd still say the overall message is that shelly would be receiving the scroll if MUSH got it.

[Fidget]

When I am scum reading a player, I vote for my scum reads and town should always vote on their scum reads. Scum are the ones who have to be careful on their reads.

Yeah, I know you're gonna vote for your scumreads, I'm not arguing against that. Your reasoning in your vote post

Noraa's play has been confusing me and that 180 she did earlier on me when Toogeloo was holding the scroll was sus. Her post on #3942 about Hopkirk also looked like scum shading him. So from what I gathered, scum Noraa likes to put pressure on players and she has been doing that in this game and town Noraa doesn't put pressure.

VOTE: Noraa

was utter insanity. When Gloria brings up meta that is more reasonable for evaluating Noraa

Could someone tell me why they are townreading Noraa or Tayl0r Swift? I am absolutely not.

Noraa’s emotional range is much greater here than in any of her scumgames + she’s making detailed, nuanced readslists. She didn’t do that in ANY of her scumgames and here, she’s doing that like it’s going out of style almost.

So, either Noraa’s suddenly switched up her scum meta or she’s town. The readslist also reads super genuine and not coached, so I’m obviously a lot more confident on Noraa!town than Tayl0r, especially after skimming The Trials but I still think it could be playstyle.

I’ve already explained Tayl0r but she should definitely be able to give reasons for that read, I did.

I have had some bad experience with meta and most of the time I don't focus on meta anymore. In my last micro game I played someone was getting town read for meta and that player turned out to be scum. I was getting scum read for meta and I was town. I have said earlier on why I scum read Noraa. That read list Noraa made when she put me as newbtown gave me a bit of a pause and I started wondering maybe Noraa could be town and if she was scum, I would have assumed she would continue on trying to get me eliminated and then later she did a 180 on me. On my first completed scum game I also made a read list and I didn't get coached. Noraa's play really has been confusing me.

You dismiss it based off of "bad experiences with meta". Gloria saying that Noraa is out of her emotional scumrange is very much what I am thinking, too. Noraa "not putting pressure" as town is not a thing. You are only accepting meta that helps you scumread Noraa. Why?

During this time frame you are also ignoring Frederick in favor of talking about Noraa and asking me for my reads. You have never had Zdenek/Fred on the table this game. You dismissed my read as "If Fred is scum, then Adorable is scum", rather than actually respond to it.

You are calling me a bad town player for this read, but I am only calling it as I see it.

[MURDERCAT]

I have expressed concerns about shelly as well. I don't think bell is obv town enough to be a target but he has also. Something to consider.

[Fidget]

By the way, that's not how I play as scum. I only have 3 completed scum games and first completed game I was distancing with a scum buddy and afterwards I played passive and voted no one, second completed scum game I fake claimed vt in a mass claim and was forced to get in a 1v1 because of my claim since players were suspecting scum to be in a vt claim, third completed scum game I played so passive and I voted no one.

You yourself have told me that meta is a bad way to read you, and yet, you use it as your defense repeatedly, this being the third time I can recall.

You even admit to have bad experience with meta (but only when it goes against your Noraa scumread). What am I supposed to think, Adorbs?

But I should still entertain it, yes. You are saying you are more passive as scum and tend to not throw your vote around unless you absolutely have to? So in this situation, you would not have been voting for either wagon for fear of being caught out on a CW? Is that how I should interpret this meta?