976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[mastina]

dunn, so you are not town? it seems like that

Pretty much.

He's not showing an ounce of townness in his play; his claim is super-sketchy; he's shown no consistency in his story, stances, or views.

Seems to be a pretty strong candidate for lockscum.

[mastina]

if you townread plus, why?

The Empress

Also a meta read from MBOS Large, the same way that TGP is. It strongly seems like the same PlusJOYED from that game, combined with me also liking the content Plus has provided.

Literally the only way I could see Plus as nontown is if the game is 4-5 (and even then, Plus would probably be one of the four town players); if the game is 7-2, Plus is basically locktown.

[mastina]

When it comes to Nic btw: in the neighborhood if Dunnstral is scum (and all signs point to this), Nic cannot be scum with Dunn. In a 7-2 world, this clears Nic as Nic would by necessity be town (due to no scum-scum neighborhoods).
But in a 4-5 world, Nic's probably not town because his claim seems very much like a 3p claim, actually. The sorts of things he's doing don't seem to make sense as town, but fit as some form of 3p.

In either case, I prefer a Dunnstral elimination to a Nic one, and on future days we can reevaluate when we can more accurately determine 7-2 vs 4-5.

[NicCage]

I'm serious about the town-narrative. Think it through. Maybe he's a townie who is busy and makes mistakes. You've got to explain each and every mistake strung together, not separately. Can you really explain away every bad move he's made with that character? The lack of posting in both main thread and PT?

something dunnstral does

Refusing to change even the tiniest amount under pressure?

why is this a mistake?

The Empress

Because anyone can see that it will lead to their elimination if they sit idle while a wagon grows on them.

[SKYEscrapers]

Imma pull back on this and
UNVOTE: Plus
as they get replaced.

We'll discuss in the hydra chat.

- Ari

[SKYEscrapers]

Fyi I'm like 5 pages behind or something, but the 10% is good for Dunn Town and I only know the replacement from that thread, not here lmao

- Ari

[Akarin]

Caught up, my heart is sill in the Dunn vote but I don't think my brain is.

@NicCage: Did your PM say 90% chance of being TOWN or 90% of not being Mafia or what?

[Akarin]

@Dunn:

What's your reasoning on Mastina?

[Akarin]

The reasoning you expressed about the 3rd parties not counting as scum, that's kinda weird imo, like, because the size of a scumteam is 1, you don't include it?

If you're looking for a group of 2, it doesn't matter if they're Mafia or a 3rd party. You can still look for associations.

We know 2 of the 3rd parties would share a chat, the others can't be hunted for by associations anyway and there's not going to be 5 anti-town win conditions even in the lots-of-3rd-parties scenario.

[Akarin]

Well this changes things.

I would have taken Mastina for a setup reader, are you actually not?

[Akarin]

Yeah, I'm still absolutely not voting Nic, this play doesn't make any sense at all from a Scum NicCage perspective.

And I'm a bit suspicious that TGP is leaning into that confbias narrative I suggested when I said TGP-Nic might be TvT. Recent posts are pretty over the top, but I'm not sure that isn't just wanting to push for the kill excited town.

I'm actually gonna
VOTE: PlusJOYED

Feel like that slot has the highest chance of flipping scum right now. You can see him checking out of the game and only responding to the most recent posts to avoid a prod on the last couple posts, but supports a wagon (without voting it) on the last pseudo-prod-dodge. I know that's not much of a "case" but about to lurk-out town I feel like would be less likely to support a wagon when they have no idea what's going on, while scum would be telling themselves they'd come back later and justify it. And really I don't see any reason to think Plus so towny, don't really get where that read comes from.

I'd also be willing to consider TGP or Mastina but I'm conflicted on both, whole worldview was kind of shaken up here.

[Akarin]

I'll try to be here to switch my vote around before deadline if needed, but can't promise that today, I'll either just barely make it, or just miss it. Hoping we get that Plus extension, but if not this is the best vote.

[Gypyx]

Unnoficial VC

Dunnstral (3):

Akarin, mastina, Niccage

Gypyx (1):

PlusJOYED

mastina (1):

Dunnstral

NicCage (1):

TheGoldenParadox
Plus joyed (2) : Gypyx ; Akarin

not voting (2):

DoubtingThomas ; SKYE

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to Perform a Dastardly Deed. day 1 ends november 9th at 10:50 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-09 10:50:00)

So, we got low time, i'll switch to dunn in ~1h30/2h30 if it looks like a plus wagon won't hit

[Dunnstral]

@Dunn:

What's your reasoning on Mastina?

They are playing very surface level scummy, and shows no reevaluation

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: PlusJoyed

So we have an elim today. I really shouldn't be in contention with what we know

[Aristophanes]

mod notes

[/b][/color]

• seeking replacement for plusjoyed; this will incur a deadline extension

[Aristophanes]

Oops I didn't switch accounts...sorry.

I'll pick up my post later

- Ari

[NicCage]

I really don’t think Plus is a good vote today. Not compared to Dunn. In my view, if we flip Dunn we are guaranteed to learn something, with a good chance of catching scum. A decent chance of catching both of them.

I feel like people are avoiding Dunn because they don’t want to take any risks. I know I’ve thrown a lot of information and arguments up, and that makes this seem more confusing and controversial, and it makes Plus seem like a much simpler choice.

But for those of you who think Dunn has a chance of squeaking by as town, I have to ask: what has Plus done that’s so much worse?
I know they’ve done little. But when I read 145, Plus’ catchup post, I don’t seem scummy reasoning, I see a sloppily-reasoned post, hastily compiled because of the pressure at the time. His further posts could similarly come from not following the game too closely. And I see his inactivity as a little more genuine, given that he is replaced out. You wanna talk about prod dodging, look at Dunn.

Please don’t go for the choice that feels safe. Don’t assume we can sort this all out tomorrow. We need to resolve Dunn’s slot, we are going to need this information in order to make the right choices going forward.



@Akarin
My role says 90% town and 10% mafia. I have assumed that mafia could mean any non-town, given the possible setups, but the wording of the role pm gives no further clarification.

[Gypyx]

VOTE: dunnstraal

Not a fan of this vote, but we need an exe, and i'm not taking risks about the deadline extension

[NicCage]

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

When it comes to Nic btw: in the neighborhood if Dunnstral is scum (and all signs point to this), Nic cannot be scum with Dunn. In a 7-2 world, this clears Nic as Nic would by necessity be town (due to no scum-scum neighborhoods).
But in a 4-5 world, Nic's probably not town because his claim seems very much like a 3p claim, actually. The sorts of things he's doing don't seem to make sense as town, but fit as some form of 3p.

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies? We don't know for sure yet what Dunn's role will say. Maybe the word neighbor won't even appear in it.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

[Dunnstral]

So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies? We don't know for sure yet what Dunn's role will say. Maybe the word neighbor won't even appear in it.

???

[Gypyx]

(Reminder that i'd appreciate being targeted by night actions)

[Dunnstral]

Gypyx isn't compromising by the way, he moved from a wagon with 3 votes to another wagon with 3 votes

[Gypyx]

3+1 = 4 though

[NicCage]

Nah your unofficial VC is wrong, Akarin switched her vote.

But please, keep yours where it is.