976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[Gypyx]

Idk, i understood the deadline thingy as : if someone replaces plus, we get more time, so not guaranteed

And what's openwolfing btw?

[Akarin]

Probably.

Gypyx, with you, Nic, and TGP we had the votes to murderize Plus as well as Dunn, he wasn't our only option.

Why'd you keep your vote on Dunn despite saying you really would prefer Plus?

[Gypyx]

I was stressed by the deadline

[Akarin]

Idk, i understood the deadline thingy as : if someone replaces plus, we get more time, so not guaranteed

And what's openwolfing btw?

Basically I mean you're being so scummy as to practically be claiming Mafia. And yet I think you are most likely Town.

[TheGoldenParadox]

sorry, i did what? @akarin

[TheGoldenParadox]

oh jk you were talking to gypyx

[Akarin]

Nic

There is no good reason to go Mastina without the Dunn=Scum

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

When it comes to Nic btw: in the neighborhood if Dunnstral is scum (and all signs point to this), Nic cannot be scum with Dunn. In a 7-2 world, this clears Nic as Nic would by necessity be town (due to no scum-scum neighborhoods).
But in a 4-5 world, Nic's probably not town because his claim seems very much like a 3p claim, actually. The sorts of things he's doing don't seem to make sense as town, but fit as some form of 3p.

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies? We don't know for sure yet what Dunn's role will say. Maybe the word neighbor won't even appear in it.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

???

You really think this stuff is only true if Dunn is scum with Mastina?

[Gypyx]

And TGP wasn't going on joyed

Pedit : ah okay, well why do you think i'm town then if i'm scumclaiming? @akarin

[Gypyx]

UNVOTE:

[Akarin]

TGP wasn't going on Dunn either.

You moved your vote off Plus with this post

VOTE: dunnstraal

Not a fan of this vote, but we need an exe, and i'm not taking risks about the deadline extension

While saying you didn't want Dunn, you were the one who was making Dunn seem inevitable. Your vote was the only vote of difference between the wagons.

And TGP wasn't voting Dunn either. Their vote stayed on Nic the whole time.

[Gypyx]

I thought dunn had more votes that's why

[Akarin]

Oh, TGP did go Dunn at the end, my bad.

Anyway, I was talking about from before these last 5 minutes.

[NicCage]

I'm thinking more and more Dunn is town from how he's handling this mess, Nic, although I was with you before.

I don’t have any new arguments to present, but I would ask that you continue to think over the things I’ve said and take his whole play into consideration.

Look at the neighborhood, if you believe I’m honest, and tell me why a townie, who is always present with the game enough to come when called, and who townreads their neighbor, would never confide anything at all.

Edit:

What is the Mastina argument without Dunn?
Because what I am saying is she had to have knowledge of our neighborhood to call Dunn and I out so early. Their plan was to set me up at a later point in the game. The only way that she could have known about the neighborhood is if Dunn told her. My argument about her backing off is because the plan is now not easy to pull off.

They probably thought I wouldn’t figure it out soon enough, and that this would come into play D2 or later. They assumed I would be more disposed to trust Dunn because of my informed role, which I revealed to him very early. That might lead me to defend him even, which is what Dunn has been suggesting I do. Also, even though Mastina scumread Dunn, remember that it was you who started the wagon on him. Mastina never showed up until much much later, when things looked really bad for Dunn.

[Akarin]

What is the Mastina argument without Dunn?

In the words of Noir Spiderman himself:

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

How is this any less true if Dunn were to flip Town? You think people wouldn't go after you after a Dunn Town flip?

[Dunnstral]

Vote Mastina then?
VOTE: mastina

[Akarin]

Sure!

VOTE: Mastina

[Akarin]

Dunn, when did you start townreading Nic?

[Dunnstral]

From their push in the thread seeming towny, but it's starting to feel overblown now

I was asking Nic to vote mastina since that should make more sense for him

[NicCage]

So I was town right at the last second only. Very convenient. That must be why he avoided taking every single olive branch I extended in the neighborhood. Maybe it happened right after he claimed my role instead of his own too.

[NicCage]

It's fair to be suspicious of Mastina. I have thought for awhile that her play is difficult to read, because most of it is based in gut and meta. That's certainly a beneficial strategy for scum, because it is much more difficult to interrogate gut and meta, versus reasoning about things that have occurred in-game. To reason about everything in-game requires scum to be creative and come up with lies. The more positions they take, the greater the chance that they will be trapped by circumstance, and have to contradict themselves.

However:

And why that? What's the incentive to not give the reasons behind your reads?

A combination of laziness (I don't like to), feeling it's unnecessary (if the game doesn't need me to explain for it to progress, then I'd argue it's counterproductive to do so due to...), and reactions; I tend to get better reactions from not explaining than I do from explaining, and it leads to better dialogs overall than if I explain things in detail from the start.

Also I like narratives; I like to slowly work things up, with a slow buildup to the full case. Where I give nothing initially, give reactive pieces of reasons when catching up, more detailed reasons in a collective post and then if necessary expanding those collective reasons with extra detail into the fullblown case.

I am willing to bet you that this is an accurate description of her town play. There are reasons for her playstyle as D1 town as well.

I am suspicious of her also. But this is far riskier than a Dunn elimination in my opinion. I can argue town-Mastina, I can't argue town-Dunn. And if Dunn flips scum, the case against Mastina becomes much stronger.

[TheGoldenParadox]

not voting mastina for two reasons
first, her play looks very similar to her play in mbos large, where she was an aggressively townsiding 3p
which leads me to my second point that unless mastina's wincon is diametrically opposed to town she will townside as much as possible
so afaik, mastina will townside unless this is 7-2 and she is scum, which i find insanely unlikely

[NicCage]

What is the Mastina argument without Dunn?

In the words of Noir Spiderman himself:

I don't like how Mastina's read on me changes here.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads. It's a great excuse to not have to explain yourself in any substantial way.

Sure is funny, since Mastina has put forward Dunn and I and S/S this entire game, with no change. Until now, until I've made it much less profitable. Because if Dunn flips scum, she knows that if she's still suspicious of me it's going to turn into a slugfest between the two of us. And if I lose and am eliminated, everything I said before will be justified, and it'll become very difficult for her to win. Much better to start backing off on it now.

How is this any less true if Dunn were to flip Town? You think people wouldn't go after you after a Dunn Town flip?

Sorry, I didn't read carefully enough. I don't know. Yes people will probably go after me. Why back off though? The Dunn flip will give new objectively true information, which she can use to redo her reads in any way she wants. If she pushes me and I flip town, everyone will just shrug their shoulders and say "well Nic was going after Dunn pretty hard". Who is going to hold her accountable?

Now she

could

be preparing the 3p argument against me early, but I think she could just as easily do that tomorrow.

[Akarin]

I think for a disturbingly large number of players:

Dunn flips scum -> Nic is scumbuddies with Dunn and threw him under the bus.
Dunn flips town -> Nic forced it through and is getting away with too much, obvscum.

I'm not saying you should back off out of fear, I'm saying your logic doesn't particularly point to Mastina + Dunn as the only scum team where that has a scum narrative.

[NicCage]

Dunn flips town -> Nic forced it through and is getting away with too much, obvscum.

I'm probably hosed in this scenario, but I've already placed my bet against this outcome.

Dunn flips scum -> Nic is scumbuddies with Dunn and threw him under the bus.

This could happen, but I will be vindicated if I'm killed and I will have given the town a good chance to catch the last scum by catching the first one.

I'm not saying you should back off out of fear, I'm saying your logic doesn't particularly point to Mastina + Dunn as the only scum team where that has a scum narrative.

You may be right. But a lot is going to happen between now and D2. And town has all of D2 to deliberate and try to make a good decision.

[DoubtingThomas]

veto mastina lynch