Okay Mush I see your point, counterpoint might be what happens if she flips green? Why couldn’t Fred be afraid of a Shelley town flip? Think about this. Noraa and Theta flips are optimal for scum because they provide no info and that’s exactly what we got with a Theta flip. Don’t you want Shelley because she’s good info right? I would have much preferred her to Theta for that reason.In post 4844, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Nothing stops it. I've already been wrong once this game (Hopkirk -- I was fairly sure Toog was town but was feeling time pressure, and I needed to dig into Vax before I had an opinion, then that became irrelevant). No one is immune to being wrong, or we could pick that person to do all the science for the rest of us.In post 4838, Titus wrote:What stops Shelly and Taylor from being wrong town though?In post 4835, MUSHSHAGANA wrote:Reminder that Shelly tried to start /two/ counterwagons. One was just as Fred was getting started, the other was at the stall point of the wagon.
I would have thought that was self-evident, though, so I didn't say it. Also, what's the point? Confidence lets me get ahead of the game on a red flip, and honestly if we don't hit scum this pass I think we're in for a long, grueling, miserable late game loss anyway, so confidence also keeps my interest alive.
I do think that scum is in the townblocs and sitting pretty, though. I think Fred's wagon stalled and they had over-distanced from each other too hard to create a useful narrative for building a counterwagon in time. Hence being in the townblocs -- we have a lot of prominent players who don't like each other but get a ton of townreads from the outside. Lurkers could naked-vote a different wagon, or Adorable could do another pass at Noraa though I think that ship has sailed -- oh wait, Adorable DID do that, so sure, Adorable can be scum, whatever.
But this doesn't account well for many -- you have to presume most of the scum is in lurkslots (which makes yesterday look like a freak coincidence where we precisely miss the few scum in the category) or that most of the scum is in consensus scumreads (which is weird since it's mostly consensus town slots getting those out of trouble, e.g. me with Noraa) or that the scum has at least some presence in townblocs. Which means that our townreads are going to be covering for 2-4 scum.
IF I am right about that, we need to rely on scrolled town shooting from the hip and taking no direction in the process, because scum is inside the town decision loop and building our consensus for us. If we let town help direct scroll-passes, scum that has near-universal townreads gets to control where it lands, and we never hit two scum in a day.
It also means we need to start doing serious VCA, and paying close attention to the context of that VCA. Some examples, right?
Shelly looks awful here if Fred flips red, not because of her position in the vote-counts, but because she jumped on, off, back on, back off of the wagon (and I don't recall her getting back on at the end) and kept trying to get attention spotlighting her when she hopped off.
Adorable looks sorta bad here if Fred's red, because of the eleventh hour Noraa push long after everyone else has sort of ruled Noraa out (though I'm reconsidering for the reasons I'm going into here).
I and Bell (but more me) look pretty bad in a world where Fred flips green, because we were the /primary drivers/ of this wagon, especially me. I think this is less useful for overall sorting, because I do believe my reasons for the scumread were damned good, and it's the ...what, second time Bell has shown animation about a wagon? Maybe even first. Also the first day's scroll hits show that town can't find town very well here, which does also diminish the degree to which we look bad. Or I'm biased and will be eliminated afterwards, but as I said: confidence, etc.!
So, what does Shelly red flip tell us and then also ask yourself what Shelley green flip also tells you and think of what info. scum!Fred wanted to keep hidden.
