976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[MathBlade]

You know, I think Nic might be my biggest town read. I'm never voting Nic today.

I can see it I think.

But your math is wrong because reasons.

[MathBlade]

And why that? What's the incentive to not give the reasons behind your reads?

A combination of laziness (I don't like to), feeling it's unnecessary (if the game doesn't need me to explain for it to progress, then I'd argue it's counterproductive to do so due to...), and reactions; I tend to get better reactions from not explaining than I do from explaining, and it leads to better dialogs overall than if I explain things in detail from the start.

Also I like narratives; I like to slowly work things up, with a slow buildup to the full case. Where I give nothing initially, give reactive pieces of reasons when catching up, more detailed reasons in a collective post and then if necessary expanding those collective reasons with extra detail into the fullblown case.

VOTE: Mastina

This is the fourth time I have disagreed with your reasoning in my head. Some mentioned. I wanna know why. Majority of thread is dissonant with you yet you’re not worried. Why?

[MathBlade]

Also why is akarin in null? He's pretty towny imo

She. And really when there are only 2 scum in the game, handing out townreads to everyone else but me and the 2 scumreads makes that null realistically a lean scum on TGP's part.

Is that a scumslip? Like, how do you know there are only 2 scum in the game?

VOTE: Akarin

Bookmarking this in case it’s Mastina + G and Mastina lock Towned TGP because they townread G. This would make Sky town here.

I think two scum vibe may make sense after all.

[MathBlade]

Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.

I disagree. I kinda wanna see that play out.

[MathBlade]

Nic, you're some kind of informed townie or what?

This is scummy af.

VOTE: Gypyx

[MathBlade]

Outing me huh. You've had more than enough opportunities to talk to me, I'm not engaging with you now.

If he flips scum, the Mastina connection makes perfect sense. Initially he spoke to me in the neighborhood and told me he was suspicious of me, I suppose owing to my original posting. But after his little interaction with me in the main thread, he basically stopped communicating. I have tried throughout the game to try to get some kind of cooperation out of him, but nothing was forthcoming.

81 Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:22 am Dunnstral's last interaction with me
123 Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:57 pm Mastina's post where she claims we are buddies

Should this not turn out to be paranoia, the timing of these events are perfectly suited for a plan between the two of them. His initial discussion with me is solo play, there's some time for them to discuss what the plan is, and then you see a marked difference in his play.

Dunn is playing like someone who wants to get eliminated. For awhile I have thought it is most likely that he is a third party, with some kind of restriction on his play. I thought that because I didn't think scum would play like this. This lurking is far too much for just laying low, anyone ought to see that it would attract suspicion, and that the day would end with a wagon on them.

Pretty sure Dunn is town. Reminds me of 1841 (game in my sig.) Dunn was a neighborizer who took a back seat in a hood.

[MathBlade]

who do you think are towns

You, nic, akarin, skye, maybe plusjoyed

Good list.
I like it.

[MathBlade]

I am not avoiding voting Dunnstral, and being neighbors does not make us masons. Watch: VOTE: Dunnstral DD-1

Dunnstral is lying about not noticing the setup, it is one of the very few things we talked about in the neighborhood.

Actually nic is in mason chat w dunnstral anyways so tjet both outted themselves yes

No we are neighbors. First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me. Second masons don’t have a kill (as far as I am aware). So then there would be no scumteam. That’s possible, but how likely is that? Like Ari said earlier, we will very likely have more information in the future so there is no point in speculating like this.

I have niccage dunnstral gypyx tgp and akarin as the 5.

Can we kill nic today who outted that they r non town? Unless someone can specificaly point to nic being a very instruction following boi

.....
Thomas.
Reading is not scummy, town players need all the info they can get.
I am not the only person who read the setup.
If I am non-town, that means Dunnstral is non-town too.
Killing me first is dumb as hell, given the weight of information that could be gained on eliminating Dunn.

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

I don’t believe you. That wouldn’t work anyway, even if you have a lower chance of being scum, you still have a 10% chance. My read on you takes precedence over a dice roll, everyone else’s should too. Claim your own role, not mine.

You’ve had every opportunity to enlist my help up until now.

ladies and gentlemen, observe nic's wonderful argument.
if his claim is correct, dunnstral has a 90% chance of being town. if he himself is town, then the probability of dunnstral being scum is 10%, whereas the probability of a random other person being scum is (0.9*0.286)+(0.1*0.143)=27.14%.

thus.

niccage believes that his read on dunnstral is approximately 3 times better than average. he is sacrificing a 27% chance to vote on a 10% chance.



now, imagine nic is scum, knows that dunnstral is scum as well, and wants to be on the dunn wagon for the towncred.

imagine nic is scum, knows that dunn is town, and wants to argue bUt mAh rEaDs to explain why he voted someone that was mod confirmed around 3 times less likely to be scum than any other random player.
not sure nic made these calculations himself, but it's so stunningly obvious that this is complete bullshit even from just a cursory glance at the numbers. can we please get nic today?

VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage

pedit: that unvote is weird, but doesn't really change my view of the situation especially because it is implied the vote will go back on. nic is scum.

Can people stop using math in arguments. Your math is wrong if I start with your given premises.

[MathBlade]

Cause it’s mentioned in the setup, either 2 scum and 7 town, or 4 town and 5 non-town, 2 of which share a wincon

Well this changes things.

If the game's two scum and seven town, then obviously there's a maximum of one nontown in Nic/Dunn since schadd_ wouldn't make a scum-scum neighborhood and I doubt they're lying about the existence of one.

But if the game's four town and 5 nontown, then I'd expect both of them to be nontown here, presumably with players like DoubtingThomas and SKYEscrapers filling in the gaps (because 5 nontown allows for scum to legitimately scumhunt).

Which is to say.

It can explain why slots that overall look like scum, have incidents of sincere pushes behind them.

VOTE: Mastina

You’re expecting me to buy you didn’t read the OP as town?
You’re fucking mastina. You reread the same words over and over again.

[MathBlade]

I think for a disturbingly large number of players:

Dunn flips scum -> Nic is scumbuddies with Dunn and threw him under the bus.
Dunn flips town -> Nic forced it through and is getting away with too much, obvscum.

I'm not saying you should back off out of fear, I'm saying your logic doesn't particularly point to Mastina + Dunn as the only scum team where that has a scum narrative.

I may be weird but I think Nic + Dunn is TvT.

If it’s a 2 scum game it’s probably Mastina and G.

[Akarin]

I may be weird but I think Nic + Dunn is TvT.

You're not weird.

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

[NicCage]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

He seems a lot different to me, looking at his ISO.

[MathBlade]

Go on. How so? Looks like to me he takes a back seat once someone is hooded and let others be in the spotlight starting D2. Here he started in a hood with you, you’re in the limelight and he isn’t.

[DoubtingThomas]

just curious - did you skim or read all the posts?

[DoubtingThomas]

i like his entrance - but i can't quite put my finger on it. sounds like a competent player who can fake this sort of vibe and play as either alignment. i am wondering what others saw in PLUSjoyed cuz i saw some votes?

[MathBlade]

just curious - did you skim or read all the posts?

Speed read. Enough to get a general “vibe” of the thread and posted my thoughts as I go. Replacements can be harder to read so I generally try to post random thoughts that come up rather than a summary with reads.

[MathBlade]

i like his entrance - but i can't quite put my finger on it. sounds like a competent player who can fake this sort of vibe and play as either alignment. i am wondering what others saw in PLUSjoyed cuz i saw some votes?

This is correct. I am competent as any alignment, but much better at scum than town. Would you like meta of each if you’re a meta player? I don’t hold much stock in it except when a player breaks a known habit.

[DoubtingThomas]

i don't religiously believe in meta, but it can be better than nothing. if you don't mind, you can explain what you believe yourself is like in either alignment.

[NicCage]

Go on. How so? Looks like to me he takes a back seat once someone is hooded and let others be in the spotlight starting D2. Here he started in a hood with you, you’re in the limelight and he isn’t.

I didn't read the game carefully, I'm reacting to the tone of his posts, which are very different. I can find examples tomorrow.

But now that you bring up the neighborhood element, I have went and looked at the neighborhood thread from that game. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=68713
I recommend you look at my posts which paraphrase the contents of the neighborhood this game. 387 390

There is a stark difference between the two. He is communicating with you, strategizing, talking reads. He never did any of that with me, but I tried to do it with him.

[MathBlade]

As scum I am more of a “go with the bad” type player. The best scum are town then town inevitably miseliminate each other, leaving me time to machinate and PR hunt in private in the scum PT. Still vocal and opinionated but if I have to force something I am already 3 steps behind.

As town I tend be more “look at me lead”, stubborn and opinionated but I don’t want things to get “off course” from how I see them as I don’t have a bunch of buddies to back me up. There is no plan, it’s much more wild.

As 3P I tend to be focused more so on surviving it’s a mix. I will definitely still butter people up but can’t go whole hog because then I am in the limelight for a kill or a miselimination.

[MathBlade]

Go on. How so? Looks like to me he takes a back seat once someone is hooded and let others be in the spotlight starting D2. Here he started in a hood with you, you’re in the limelight and he isn’t.

I didn't read the game carefully, I'm reacting to the tone of his posts, which are very different. I can find examples tomorrow.

But now that you bring up the neighborhood element, I have went and looked at the neighborhood thread from that game. https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=90&t=68713
I recommend you look at my posts which paraphrase the contents of the neighborhood this game. 387 390

There is a stark difference between the two. He is communicating with you, strategizing, talking reads. He never did any of that with me, but I tried to do it with him.

I am going to have to take your word that it is different then.

When Dunnstral opened with me it was about claims and what he thought because of it. Until Dunn feels solid in his reads, or at least a solid idea of one I don’t see him opening up.

Posting words isn’t the same thing as reads. People get this idea that the more someone speaks the Townier they are when the answer always is, it depends.

[TheGoldenParadox]

I am not avoiding voting Dunnstral, and being neighbors does not make us masons. Watch: VOTE: Dunnstral DD-1

Dunnstral is lying about not noticing the setup, it is one of the very few things we talked about in the neighborhood.

Actually nic is in mason chat w dunnstral anyways so tjet both outted themselves yes

No we are neighbors. First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me. Second masons don’t have a kill (as far as I am aware). So then there would be no scumteam. That’s possible, but how likely is that? Like Ari said earlier, we will very likely have more information in the future so there is no point in speculating like this.

I have niccage dunnstral gypyx tgp and akarin as the 5.

Can we kill nic today who outted that they r non town? Unless someone can specificaly point to nic being a very instruction following boi

.....
Thomas.
Reading is not scummy, town players need all the info they can get.
I am not the only person who read the setup.
If I am non-town, that means Dunnstral is non-town too.
Killing me first is dumb as hell, given the weight of information that could be gained on eliminating Dunn.

First off if we were masons we would be on the same side and he wouldn’t have outed me.

I claimed because I was put to L-1 with your help and needed to out the info to survive

I don’t believe you. That wouldn’t work anyway, even if you have a lower chance of being scum, you still have a 10% chance. My read on you takes precedence over a dice roll, everyone else’s should too. Claim your own role, not mine.

You’ve had every opportunity to enlist my help up until now.

ladies and gentlemen, observe nic's wonderful argument.
if his claim is correct, dunnstral has a 90% chance of being town. if he himself is town, then the probability of dunnstral being scum is 10%, whereas the probability of a random other person being scum is (0.9*0.286)+(0.1*0.143)=27.14%.

thus.

niccage believes that his read on dunnstral is approximately 3 times better than average. he is sacrificing a 27% chance to vote on a 10% chance.



now, imagine nic is scum, knows that dunnstral is scum as well, and wants to be on the dunn wagon for the towncred.

imagine nic is scum, knows that dunn is town, and wants to argue bUt mAh rEaDs to explain why he voted someone that was mod confirmed around 3 times less likely to be scum than any other random player.
not sure nic made these calculations himself, but it's so stunningly obvious that this is complete bullshit even from just a cursory glance at the numbers. can we please get nic today?

VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage
VOTE: niccage

pedit: that unvote is weird, but doesn't really change my view of the situation especially because it is implied the vote will go back on. nic is scum.

Can people stop using math in arguments. Your math is wrong if I start with your given premises.

can you do your own math then, and explain to me why mine is incorrect?

[MathBlade]

Can I? Yes. Will I? I debated not as the math should not be a fundamental premise as numbers tend to dissuade people from a point. I will however put it in a spoiler.

Spoiler: Math stuff

Premises are assumed for the sake of calculation. They are not to be assumed to be my reads.
Premise 1) Assume Nic town and Dunn has a 10% chance of being scum.
It logically follows that one of three cases exist while still maintaining the truth of Premise 1:
A) Dunn is scum with another player (10% chance)
B) There are two scum and Dunn is not one of them ( 90% chance assuming Nic is town)
C) There are 5 self aligned and 4 town. (Ignored as assuming two scum scenario)

For the purposes of this calculation
Nic knows he is town. Therefore in two scum world there are 6 town 2 scum. This is 1/4 to pick a scum randomly aka 25%.
Assume Dunn is town. Therefore there becomes 2 scum in 7 players. This is 2/7 approx 28% odds to pick a scum randomly.
This however assumes an even percentile chance or RNG.

So right there before calculating the Dunn weighted it would be throwing away a 25% chance for a 10% chance using your logic but mafia is a game of reads. Expecting people to follow math is silly.

Now the other problem is if we assume the 10% scum for Dunn we also then have to figure out how likely that scenario actually is. Not to mention where this 10% came from.

Naturally if Dunn has a 10% chance of being scum, then necessarily the other players chance of being scum likewise go up. This limits the amount of viable scenarios.

There isn’t really enough information to even be thinking about this sort of nose dive here.

[NicCage]

I am going to have to take your word that it is different then.

When Dunnstral opened with me it was about claims and what he thought because of it. Until Dunn feels solid in his reads, or at least a solid idea of one I don’t see him opening up.

Posting words isn’t the same thing as reads. People get this idea that the more someone speaks the Townier they are when the answer always is, it depends.

I understand the difference between words and reads, but there are no reads.

How long does town-Dunn stay closed off? Is he going to stand on principle and let himself be eliminated because his reads aren’t solid yet?
Why did he never claim, even in private with me? Even when it was clear the way the wind was blowing? Even when I made it unmistakable that his play was causing me to suspect him?