976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[MathBlade]

Numbers are good and well up until a point. Sometimes a judgment call has to be made. While I disagree with it and wish Nic would join me on Mastina, Nic imho genuinely believes Dunn is scum. I would rather you not focus on probabilities and focus on reads.

What are your reads THP?

[MathBlade]

I am going to have to take your word that it is different then.

When Dunnstral opened with me it was about claims and what he thought because of it. Until Dunn feels solid in his reads, or at least a solid idea of one I don’t see him opening up.

Posting words isn’t the same thing as reads. People get this idea that the more someone speaks the Townier they are when the answer always is, it depends.

I understand the difference between words and reads, but there are no reads.

How long does town-Dunn stay closed off? Is he going to stand on principle and let himself be eliminated because his reads aren’t solid yet?
Why did he never claim, even in private with me? Even when it was clear the way the wind was blowing? Even when I made it unmistakable that his play was causing me to suspect him?

That I don’t know. Without words I can’t really see what you do. Guessing what I can’t see would be a disservice. I just think you’re wrong on Dunn. It’s not a strong enough read for me to go “OMG stop the wagon you are wrong” and make a fuss, but it is strong enough a read for me to say I think you’re wrong.

[NicCage]

I think you are wrong.

And I think SKYE is wrong, and Akarin is wrong. But I’ve exhausted every argument I have and if I can’t convince anyone then I am willing to do Mastina.

But I don’t want anyone to forget: if Mastina flips scum, she knew Dunn and I were in a neighborhood together. And he is the most likely conduit for that information.

[MathBlade]

I think you are wrong.

And I think SKYE is wrong, and Akarin is wrong. But I’ve exhausted every argument I have and if I can’t convince anyone then I am willing to do Mastina.

But I don’t want anyone to forget: if Mastina flips scum, she knew Dunn and I were in a neighborhood together. And he is the most likely conduit for that information.

What makes you say that Mastina knew you were in a hood with Dunn? Did I miss something?

[NicCage]

Outing me huh. You've had more than enough opportunities to talk to me, I'm not engaging with you now.

If he flips scum, the Mastina connection makes perfect sense. Initially he spoke to me in the neighborhood and told me he was suspicious of me, I suppose owing to my original posting. But after his little interaction with me in the main thread, he basically stopped communicating. I have tried throughout the game to try to get some kind of cooperation out of him, but nothing was forthcoming.

81 Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:22 am Dunnstral's last interaction with me
123 Sat Oct 31, 2020 5:57 pm Mastina's post where she claims we are buddies

Should this not turn out to be paranoia, the timing of these events are perfectly suited for a plan between the two of them. His initial discussion with me is solo play, there's some time for them to discuss what the plan is, and then you see a marked difference in his play.

Dunn is playing like someone who wants to get eliminated. For awhile I have thought it is most likely that he is a third party, with some kind of restriction on his play. I thought that because I didn't think scum would play like this. This lurking is far too much for just laying low, anyone ought to see that it would attract suspicion, and that the day would end with a wagon on them.

This is what I think. Mastina has spent the entirety of D1, before the above post at any rate, saying Dunn and I are scum together. IF she flips scum, I think that it very unlikely that she guessed that by random chance.

[MathBlade]

That’s where imho you’re wrong because I know Mastina and regardless of her alignment she makes that post.
If she’s town, she tends to scumread hoods she’s not in. (See recent theme game where she and Titus scumread the A50 hood)
If she’s scum she probably did pick up on the hood connection but probably serves her interest to bring it to the forefront as to make the hood deaths a null kill that won’t point back to her.

I don’t see any foreknowledge there but I do see that whatever her alignment she did see something fishy.

[MathBlade]

Furthermore, let’s assume Dunn wants to be eliminated. Scum generally don’t want to be eliminated. This makes him either 3P or town with a death wish. I don’t anticipate in a micro if it’s a 2 scum game scum Dunn wanting to be eliminated D1. Dunn’s been around much too long for that.

[MathBlade]

Hell I would be willing to venture if it’s not a 2 scum game you’re both 3P with a communication method of some kind like the first post indicates. But I would much rather figure out what game we’re in and if it’s a 3P heavy game come back to that later.

[MathBlade]

So let me ask you this Nic, are you town?

[Dunnstral]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

He seems a lot different to me, looking at his ISO.

2016 game

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

He seems a lot different to me, looking at his ISO.

2016 game

Are you town Dunn?

[NicCage]

Yes. So you believe, as a third party, I lied to Dunn about my Informed role?

[Dunnstral]

I am going to have to take your word that it is different then.

When Dunnstral opened with me it was about claims and what he thought because of it. Until Dunn feels solid in his reads, or at least a solid idea of one I don’t see him opening up.

Posting words isn’t the same thing as reads. People get this idea that the more someone speaks the Townier they are when the answer always is, it depends.

I understand the difference between words and reads, but there are no reads.

How long does town-Dunn stay closed off? Is he going to stand on principle and let himself be eliminated because his reads aren’t solid yet?
Why did he never claim, even in private with me? Even when it was clear the way the wind was blowing? Even when I made it unmistakable that his play was causing me to suspect him?

I'm not letting myself by eliminted

[Dunnstral]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714

If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

He seems a lot different to me, looking at his ISO.

2016 game

Are you town Dunn?

yes

[MathBlade]

Yes. So you believe, as a third party, I lied to Dunn about my Informed role?

I am thinking you’d both be third party to be precise because of the OP.

You could have lied sure, or have never said it to him in the hood, as you wouldn’t necessarily care about reads just eliminator eliminatee type deal or some other reason to bus.

I am still kinda kicking that theory around and the Mastina + G has a lot more behind it.

[NicCage]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

[Dunnstral]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

I was responding to you in the pt.

[MathBlade]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

I was responding to you in the pt.

Care to give your own summary?

[NicCage]

Yes. So you believe, as a third party, I lied to Dunn about my Informed role?

I am thinking you’d both be third party to be precise because of the OP.

You could have lied sure, or have never said it to him in the hood, as you wouldn’t necessarily care about reads just eliminator eliminatee type deal or some other reason to bus.

I am still kinda kicking that theory around and the Mastina + G has a lot more behind it.

I had to have said it to him because he was the one who revealed it. So why tell it to him?
I don’t know what those roles are.

[MathBlade]

Yes. So you believe, as a third party, I lied to Dunn about my Informed role?

I am thinking you’d both be third party to be precise because of the OP.

You could have lied sure, or have never said it to him in the hood, as you wouldn’t necessarily care about reads just eliminator eliminatee type deal or some other reason to bus.

I am still kinda kicking that theory around and the Mastina + G has a lot more behind it.

I had to have said it to him because he was the one who revealed it. So why tell it to him?
I don’t know what those roles are.

You had to say you were in a hood to him? Pretty sure the mod did that.

Eliminator is lyncher (Sorry for the l word) it means they have a certain target they want to eliminate.
Eliminatee just wants to be eliminated. Think vengeful for town or jester for 3P.

Your reasoning here doesn’t really follow a town or scum mindset from what I see in most people, same with Dunn so I am just trying to figure out what you’re doing.

[Dunnstral]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

I was responding to you in the pt.

Care to give your own summary?

We exchange greetings but don't otherwise talk in pre-game
Game starts, nic makes some awkward posts in the main thread
In the pt asks what the odds are we can trust each other
I respond saying random, and that he is slightly above average to be mafia
He claims his role
I question him about the role and he says the game might not have a standard setup
I bring up some math for his role and ask if it is revealed when he dies
He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party
I say that's not something that happens and that there probably aren't going to be 3rd parties in a micro, or only 1
Nic rapid fires 3 posts, one telling me to read the mods first post and saying that every player should have a special role, the next asks for my opinion on DoubtingThomas since I've played with them before and mentioned putting pressure on Gypyx, and says I should press him in public, and then makes another post pointing out mastina calling us scum-scum for interactions
I respond saying I've only playing with DoubtingThomas once and don't have an opinion on his posts, and that his public posts looks like he's trying to get into the game through interrogation
He asks me if I'm playing things close
I respond saying I'm just not posting often
He continues questioning me and I tell him I'm not talkative in pts as town
He asks me if he should think I'm town, and also accuses me of being a role that doesn't have the ability to vote
I respond by pointing to his own role and saying yes he should think I'm town
He then says I'm the compromise vote

[NicCage]

@Math
Not the Neighbor part, the Informed part. Why lie and tell him I have mod-given info saying Dunn has a 90% chance of being town and 10% of mafia.

It is very unlikely that we have those roles because all the 3p are self-aligned, with the exception of 2. Would those two roles not have the “some mutuality in wincon”? Then in that case there is no scum analog at all. If you think my Mastina-Dunn theory is farfetched, this is worse.

[Dunnstral]

We don't even know if it's the third party setup. Can we just eliminate mastina, who is almost certainly not town, and who you agree is almost certainly not town?

[MathBlade]

Don’t tell me his role, does his role what he told you match what he said in thread? Yes or no don’t elaborate?

If the answer to the first question is yes, what is your read on Nic?

[MathBlade]

@Math
Not the Neighbor part, the Informed part. Why lie and tell him I have mod-given info saying Dunn has a 90% chance of being town and 10% of mafia.

It is very unlikely that we have those roles because all the 3p are self-aligned, with the exception of 2. Would those two roles not have the “some mutuality in wincon”? Then in that case there is no scum analog at all. If you think my Mastina-Dunn theory is farfetched, this is worse.

@Dunn be patient.

There is a minor detail that doesn’t add up here. Well two, but one.