976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[NicCage]

At the outset of the game he was 90% town and 10% scum for me.

This is his role claim, by the way.

We're in a neighborhood together; he's claiming that he was told that I only have a 10% chance of being scum.

But now, if I were to put money on it, I'd say he's a third party.

Based on what? Lowposting?

[MathBlade]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

I was responding to you in the pt.

Care to give your own summary?

We exchange greetings but don't otherwise talk in pre-game
Game starts, nic makes some awkward posts in the main thread
In the pt asks what the odds are we can trust each other
I respond saying random, and that he is slightly above average to be mafia
He claims his role
I question him about the role and he says the game might not have a standard setup
I bring up some math for his role and ask if it is revealed when he dies
He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party
I say that's not something that happens and that there probably aren't going to be 3rd parties in a micro, or only 1
Nic rapid fires 3 posts, one telling me to read the mods first post and saying that every player should have a special role, the next asks for my opinion on DoubtingThomas since I've played with them before and mentioned putting pressure on Gypyx, and says I should press him in public, and then makes another post pointing out mastina calling us scum-scum for interactions
I respond saying I've only playing with DoubtingThomas once and don't have an opinion on his posts, and that his public posts looks like he's trying to get into the game through interrogation
He asks me if I'm playing things close
I respond saying I'm just not posting often
He continues questioning me and I tell him I'm not talkative in pts as town
He asks me if he should think I'm town, and also accuses me of being a role that doesn't have the ability to vote
I respond by pointing to his own role and saying yes he should think I'm town
He then says I'm the compromise vote

@Nic Is this an accurate summary? In order?

[Dunnstral]

Don’t tell me his role, does his role what he told you match what he said in thread? Yes or no don’t elaborate?

If the answer to the first question is yes, what is your read on Nic?

Yes it matches up, I think he's town

[Dunnstral]

or rather, I'm the one who said his role in thread

[MathBlade]

There’s two problems with that though.

If Nic can confirm that the summary is indeed how the hood went, then I can point them out.

If it is not, then Nic should correct the hood summary.

[NicCage]

It’s not 100% accurate by mostly covers things. My post describes each of our PT posts separately. He has left out a couple, like my final question, and the 3 “rapid fire” posts are actually separated by one of his, and they occurred 17 hours apart. I’m in bed and it is too hard to pick through that on my phone, but you should be able to see what is missing.

Edit: Well I’m not going to pick through it bit by bit. I stand by my posts before as accurate and complete.

[MathBlade]

Alright then care to explain how you have a 90% chance of Dunn being town and a 10% chance of being scum, and then declaring every player should have a special role?
Then go onto theorizing this is a 3P game which if true would make Dunn lock town to you yet you push him as there would be a 0% chance of him being 3P.

I also disagree with everyone is special theory.

Source: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Informed

So which is it Nic? Is it 3P and Dunn is lock town or do you think this is a scum game?

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Nic

For good measure until the whole
“I think it’s 3P but I am gonna push Dunn” gets explained.

[MathBlade]

And lastly I have never seen informed give percentages.

[Dunnstral]

And lastly I have never seen informed give percentages.

I was curious too so I asked, it seems his claimed role is within what is acceptable for this game

[NicCage]

Oh good lord. I am town, but not vanilla. The sentences inspiring the roles cause me to doubt anyone is vanilla, or just a plain goon. That is all.

If you disagree I don’t care. I could be wrong, I was just speculating to Dunn.

My role does say 10% mafia. But I assumed that actually means non-town. I can ask for clarification, but that was always my assumption. Pretty sure I’ve even said it before.

[Dunnstral]

My role does say 10% mafia. But I assumed that actually means non-town.

I'm pretty sure 90% town and 10% mafia means I have a 0% chance to be a third party, actually...

[MathBlade]

Oh good lord. I am town, but not vanilla. The sentences inspiring the roles cause me to doubt anyone is vanilla, or just a plain goon. That is all.

If you disagree I don’t care. I could be wrong, I was just speculating to Dunn.

My role does say 10% mafia. But I assumed that actually means non-town. I can ask for clarification, but that was always my assumption. Pretty sure I’ve even said it before.

Why didn’t you think to ask for clarification before pushing Dunn scum?

Wouldn’t town you be concerned and be able to do “Hey there’s literally no chance this guy is 3P?”. If it says mafia and it’s from the mod why would you assume it included something else?

[MathBlade]

My role does say 10% mafia. But I assumed that actually means non-town.

I'm pretty sure 90% town and 10% mafia means I have a 0% chance to be a third party, actually...

Exactly.

So the order in the hood makes no sense.
If he suspects you as 3P town!Nic shouldn’t push you if he is informed the way he is.

How serious was that 3P theory Nic had?

[MathBlade]

This does not make sense and I gotta go to bed. I may not be the worlds greatest mathematician but I know 0 when I see it means nothing.

Someone double check me overnight.

[NicCage]

I assumed I wouldn’t be given information about the setup to that extent. You make a fair point, I guess I made a mistake. I’m not a perfect player. I did consider asking, but I just never have. I got nothing for ya.

[MathBlade]

I assumed I wouldn’t be given information about the setup to that extent. You make a fair point, I guess I made a mistake. I’m not a perfect player. I did consider asking, but I just never have. I got nothing for ya.

Okay then if you think it’s 3P unvote Dunn.

If you think it’s a scum game then why Dunn? And who with?

If you’re town (and that’s a HUGE if in my book) you need to start from what the mod has told you.

[mastina]

Well this changes things.

I would have taken Mastina for a setup reader, are you actually not?

You'd think that, but.
In MBOS 10, I made no less than three at minimum mechanical errors of mechanics in the OP of our topic.
I thought I could create a tracker every night; it was oneshot.
I thought contracts could get us points; they could not.
I thought that on D3 there would be a locked thread with no day phase and every player submitting to the mod a person they wanted to make bulletproof with everyone receiving one from those players.
I multiple times misremembered the points system of my own faction.

All that just from that one game, although the proof of those mechanical setup mistakes hasn't yet been released so while that game should be sufficient evidence, you can't actually view it yet so let me give you some others from other towngames of mine.

In this game, a critical point was my failure to have realized what the implications of the role flavorer were initially. It was a talking point so easily verifiable that I missed a game mechanic crucially in a spot, with my opening having been unaware of it.

I'm pretty sure I had mechanical confusion in this game, too (although to be fair, everyone did, not just me).

From the getgo start to finish I had a fundamental misunderstanding of the way Doubles Mafia worked.

And while I was far from unique in not grasping the game mechanics, everyone in this game, myself included, failed to grasp the game mechanics.

This is far from an extensive list of games where I made misplays about mechanics I had the information to access from the gamestart.

Suffice to say.

It happens more often than it doesn't.

I can track down dozens of extra examples.
So yes.
I do miss things, on occasion--but when they are brought to my attention, they lead to a fundamental change in my understanding of the way the game has unfolded and I reevaluate and reassess and come to a refined position. (Which, I admit, I did, but I was rushing when I last posted. I forget what else I was doing, but there was something else that came up so I had to rush my post without properly explaining my position, my bad on that, but will be getting into more detail now.)

[Akarin]

The earlier clarification:

@Akarin
My role says 90% town and 10% mafia. I have assumed that mafia could mean any non-town, given the possible setups, but the wording of the role pm gives no further clarification.

Where does Nic assume 3rd Party game before this recent exchange after Math joins the game? I can't find it.

Anyway, Nic reads like he's kind of been on tilt about the Dunn wagon collapsing today, and the Mastina-Dunn thing was originally a scum assumption on Nic's part I believe.

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

[MathBlade]

The earlier clarification:

@Akarin
My role says 90% town and 10% mafia. I have assumed that mafia could mean any non-town, given the possible setups, but the wording of the role pm gives no further clarification.

Where does Nic assume 3rd Party game before this recent exchange after Math joins the game? I can't find it.

Anyway, Nic reads like he's kind of been on tilt about the Dunn wagon collapsing today, and the Mastina-Dunn thing was originally a scum assumption on Nic's part I believe.

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

It’s in the summary of the hood that I asked Dunn about.
Then I asked Nico to correct any mistakes before hopping down that wagon.
He said there were minor inconsistencies but did not deny he made the 3P suggestion in Dunn+Nic’s hood.

[mastina]

Yeah, I'm still absolutely not voting Nic, this play doesn't make any sense at all from a Scum NicCage perspective.

I agree that Nic is 100% cleared if the game is 7-2. If it is not, then he at least sincerely believes Dunnstral is scum. I personally feel that in a 4-5 game he's probably one of the most likely players to be a 3p, although as unlikely as it may be he could still be town even then. (Basically I feel like there's no situation in which he is groupscum. In 7-2 he is town; in 4-5 it's possible albeit improbable he is town, but in 4-5 he's probably some benevolent 3p whose information is akin to my faction from the large, down to being in a neighborhood with another player.)

They are playing very surface level scummy, and shows no reevaluation

People who believe this bullshit are in need of a reality check by the way.

There are eight slots in this game for me to develop a read on.

Of them?

My read has changed on four of them.

I have literally changed my read on

half the players in the game

.
And Dunnstral is making the accusation that my reads haven't changed.

My read on NicCage has very very obviously evolved with time and new information.
My read on SKYEscrapers has changed no less than two times.
My read on DoubtingThomas has changed no less than two times.
And my read on TheGoldenParadox shifted into a solid locktown.

Do you want me to quote the posts showing these transitions in reads?
Because Dunnstral's pretty clearly full of shit here when saying I haven't reevaluated, when I have.

[Akarin]

@Math

He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party

Is this what you mean?

[MathBlade]

@Math

He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party

Is this what you mean?

Correct.

So if he says that is a possibility, that doesn’t jive with voting Dunn.
That’s why I am trying to get him to take a stand and show which way his reads are.

Because if we can eliminate a 3P we in essence townfirm Dunn, if Nic is to be believed.

[Akarin]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

That idea is in the setup post of the game, I was thinking about it a lot in early game too. Yes Nic should have clarified with schadd, but that's not an assumption that it's a 3rd party setup, it's him bringing it up as a possibility.

You're treating something very very thin like it's an open-and-shut case and it's just not.

[NicCage]

@Math
If you can’t answer those questions you haven’t read what I’ve said carefully at all.
@Akarin
No, I really am not sure about the sentences. I have tried to think about my role and maybe relate to which one Dunn might have but I never came up with anything. The cats eyes one might suggest a neighborhood, but then which one is Dunn’s?