976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[MathBlade]

Mainly I think if we can flip a 3P we gain a townfirm in Dunn.
But if there is a scum, then Dunn is conf town to us more than likely at least more so than other players,
Or nic + Dunn could be running a gambit.

But by forcing Nic’s hand into picking a decision we can get a read on Nic as well as potentially get a town!firm in Dunn.

[MathBlade]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

That idea is in the setup post of the game, I was thinking about it a lot in early game too. Yes Nic should have clarified with schadd, but that's not an assumption that it's a 3rd party setup, it's him bringing it up as a possibility.

You're treating something very very thin like it's an open-and-shut case and it's just not.

@Nic I think I have. You said you made a mistake. I am giving you a chance to think through and see if you reach the same conclusions knowing that you made a mistake before.

Because based on who I am I think what you’re claiming is while possible very very unlikely.

[MathBlade]

This isn’t outright tunnels level of “eliminate Nic now”

But this is you need to re-evaluate assumptions Nic for you to have credibility.

And if you aren’t willing to do that then we have issues.

So state it plainly: Is it your opinion it is a 3P game or a scum game?

[Akarin]

@Math

I'm not disagreeing about what you're saying about town confirming Dunn, I'm just arguing that I don't see not seeing that as evidence of Nic being scum.

[Akarin]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

[mastina]

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies?

Dude you literally paraphrased your PT--are you telling me you think that paraphrase is in any way even remotely realistically fakeable?

I don't mean, "yes, in theory, it is theoretically possible to fake a neighborhood pt conversation like this".

I mean in practice, do you think YOU, with your overall knowledge about you and Dunnstral, without an actual neighborhood PT, are capable of having faked this, thought it was a good idea, and gone through with it? To have pulled an elaborate ruse?

Because if a player said "Dunnstral and NicCage are clearly faking a PT conversation and are actually scumbuddies".

I'd be tempted to lynch that player on the spot for pushing an obvious paranoia theory that blatantly violates occam's razor. Because the simplest, and most likely, explanation, is that the neighborhood is real. schadd_ likes to have neighborhoods in his games, and he would never make a scum-scum neighborhood, therefore the claim of one is very very very likely to be true, especially with the play to back it up.

I originally thought that the Nic-Dunnstral interactions reeked of scum-scum since your inthread treatment of each other reeked of being forced and faked--but you being in a neighborhood with Dunnstral provides the perfect explanation for that and turns it into a situation that makes total sense as being from town/"town" (if you're 3p).

Ergo.

You're not scum.

You're either town, or a 3p, but if you're a 3p you're effectively town anyway and thus, still town, and thus, still not scum, and thus, not a good elimination today or ever.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads.

Well obviously?
When I have made reads based off of no/wrong information, then when I get information that gives new context to the situation, including your neighborhood claim and the possibility of a 4-5 game, then that means the reads need to be updated to account for the new information.

And by the new information, Dunnstral remains scum but you become, instead of a scumbuddy with forced interactions with him, town (I feel like I should just say 'town' even though it'd be more accurate to say "town or benevolent 3p which is basically town") whose interactions with him were due to you having a neighborhood with him.

Like.
I was fucking right.
I said I thought your interactions with Dunnstral were faked and reeked of scum-scum.
They were, kinda sorta, 'faked'--not really, but they were due to you actually having a PT with Dunnstral.
But I had no way of knowing that your topic with Dunnstral wasn't a scum topic until you claimed it, did I?

Was it Mathblade himself who testified in MBOS 10 that masons look like scum? Someone did that game, at least, and a similar principle applies here for a neighborhood. Neighborhoods that're unclaimed can look like scumbuddies, until the neighborhood is revealed and that information puts to light that they are in fact, not scumbuddies, but neighbors who did have info about one another.

[MathBlade]

@Math

I'm not disagreeing about what you're saying about town confirming Dunn, I'm just arguing that I don't see not seeing that as evidence of Nic being scum.

I am torn about it on Nic being scum.

However, what I am not torn about it, is that if he is town, he has admitted a mistake and reset.

If he resets and still gets Dunn scum then he’ll have a better case and rebuild his credibility.

Right now, based on what is in thread his theories either are not logically sound and/or I break them by existing.

Therefore I am asking him to reset and come back and my vote is on him until he does or if it needs to be back on Mastina or G for an elimination.

[Dunnstral]

Dunn is playing like someone who wants to get eliminated. For awhile I have thought it is most likely that he is a third party, with some kind of restriction on his play. I thought that because I didn't think scum would play like this. This lurking is far too much for just laying low, anyone ought to see that it would attract suspicion, and that the day would end with a wagon on them.

[MathBlade]

We know from the setup that daytalk is enabled everywhere, and scum always share a PT anyway. So why can't Dunn and I just be lying about the neighborhood, and actually just be buddies?

Dude you literally paraphrased your PT--are you telling me you think that paraphrase is in any way even remotely realistically fakeable?

I don't mean, "yes, in theory, it is theoretically possible to fake a neighborhood pt conversation like this".

I mean in practice, do you think YOU, with your overall knowledge about you and Dunnstral, without an actual neighborhood PT, are capable of having faked this, thought it was a good idea, and gone through with it? To have pulled an elaborate ruse?

Because if a player said "Dunnstral and NicCage are clearly faking a PT conversation and are actually scumbuddies".

I'd be tempted to lynch that player on the spot for pushing an obvious paranoia theory that blatantly violates occam's razor. Because the simplest, and most likely, explanation, is that the neighborhood is real. schadd_ likes to have neighborhoods in his games, and he would never make a scum-scum neighborhood, therefore the claim of one is very very very likely to be true, especially with the play to back it up.

I originally thought that the Nic-Dunnstral interactions reeked of scum-scum since your inthread treatment of each other reeked of being forced and faked--but you being in a neighborhood with Dunnstral provides the perfect explanation for that and turns it into a situation that makes total sense as being from town/"town" (if you're 3p).

Ergo.

You're not scum.

You're either town, or a 3p, but if you're a 3p you're effectively town anyway and thus, still town, and thus, still not scum, and thus, not a good elimination today or ever.

And of course, the stated motive for the partial read change is based on a revelation of the new setup, not on reads.

Well obviously?
When I have made reads based off of no/wrong information, then when I get information that gives new context to the situation, including your neighborhood claim and the possibility of a 4-5 game, then that means the reads need to be updated to account for the new information.

And by the new information, Dunnstral remains scum but you become, instead of a scumbuddy with forced interactions with him, town (I feel like I should just say 'town' even though it'd be more accurate to say "town or benevolent 3p which is basically town") whose interactions with him were due to you having a neighborhood with him.

Like.
I was fucking right.
I said I thought your interactions with Dunnstral were faked and reeked of scum-scum.
They were, kinda sorta, 'faked'--not really, but they were due to you actually having a PT with Dunnstral.
But I had no way of knowing that your topic with Dunnstral wasn't a scum topic until you claimed it, did I?

Was it Mathblade himself who testified in MBOS 10 that masons look like scum? Someone did that game, at least, and a similar principle applies here for a neighborhood. Neighborhoods that're unclaimed can look like scumbuddies, until the neighborhood is revealed and that information puts to light that they are in fact, not scumbuddies, but neighbors who did have info about one another.

Uhm, Mastina if Nic is 3P then he should be eliminated as 3Ps would be the only threat to town, based on the OP.

How? Are you okay? Like seriously.

[MathBlade]

Dunn is playing like someone who wants to get eliminated. For awhile I have thought it is most likely that he is a third party, with some kind of restriction on his play. I thought that because I didn't think scum would play like this. This lurking is far too much for just laying low, anyone ought to see that it would attract suspicion, and that the day would end with a wagon on them.

Thanks Dunn.

Yay speed reads.

@Nic

Explain how you thought Dunn could be 3P with a 90% town 10%mafia?

[mastina]

akarin's just voting whoever the fuck they want, yeah?

Yes, but I think that it's indicative of not-scum. (Again, for lack of better terminology and for the sake of simplicity, I'll just call any not-scum 'town' even though there is obviously always the chance of 3p. NicCage is thus, town, and I am going to say Akarin is as well.)

Akarin was one of the strongest earlier pushes of Dunnstral, and is now all over the place.
I think that's indicative of town who hasn't been able to lock the game down, because everything Akarin is doing feels sincere and genuine and I can see the thought progression even though I feel like Akarin going from pushing Dunnstral to defending him was a mistake.

[NicCage]

@Math
Without knowing if there are 3rd parties, my read on Dunn takes precedence. I haven’t changed anyone’s mind on him, but no one has changed mine. If it’s impossible for him to be 3rd party so be it. I asked for clarification, we will find out what it really tells me.

I don’t care what your role is. I have done everything I possibly can to be open and honest and if that’s the mistake that killed me then I accept that. Everyone will know I was telling the truth at least.

[MathBlade]

akarin's just voting whoever the fuck they want, yeah?

Yes, but I think that it's indicative of not-scum. (Again, for lack of better terminology and for the sake of simplicity, I'll just call any not-scum 'town' even though there is obviously always the chance of 3p. NicCage is thus, town, and I am going to say Akarin is as well.)

Akarin was one of the strongest earlier pushes of Dunnstral, and is now all over the place.
I think that's indicative of town who hasn't been able to lock the game down, because everything Akarin is doing feels sincere and genuine and I can see the thought progression even though I feel like Akarin going from pushing Dunnstral to defending him was a mistake.

This is gonna require an explanation.

Assume Nic is truthtelling, then Dunn has at best a 10% chance at group scum and 0% at 3P.
Assume Nic is lying, eliminate Nic, problem solved.

In no world do we ever eliminate Dunn here.

[MathBlade]

@Math
Without knowing if there are 3rd parties, my read on Dunn takes precedence. I haven’t changed anyone’s mind on him, but no one has changed mine. If it’s impossible for him to be 3rd party so be it. I asked for clarification, we will find out what it really tells me.

I don’t care what your role is. I have done everything I possibly can to be open and honest and if that’s the mistake that killed me then I accept that. Everyone will know I was telling the truth at least.

You’re not interested in resetting or hunting?

Assume Dunn is town, who is scum?

[mastina]

Newb or scum. Tbd which

My initial impression was in fact scum, but DoubtingThomas's push on Gypyx, while I disagreed with it, looked sincere.

However, I'm reassessing that and thinking it might be possible to be scum again (need to double-check DoubtingThomas's Dunnstral stance), with the sincere push being due to believing that there's 3ps in the game that can be genuinely scumhunted while being scum.

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions,

two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

.
This reads like a 5 self aligned rather than 7 town 2 mafia. Would love to be surprised though.

Emphasis added. There cannot be five 3ps with none of them being scum, because per schadd_, if the game is 4-5, then at least two of the 5 are a scumteam, with the remaining 3 being...whatever the fuck they'd be. (So it'd be more accurately represented as 4-2-x-x-x, but I've been saying 4-5 for the sake of simplicity even though that's not quite accurate, because the game does have two scum minimum, guaranteed, due to them having a mutual wincon and pt. Yaknow. The powers of a scum faction.)

Assuming I buy your argument the claims are inverse. And I cannot say why without being proscum/neut.

Well the only way I can explain why I think it's a potential town indicator for Ari is to explain what about it I think is town--which would allow Ari to fake it if he's not town.

Do you want me to explain what I saw in there as town or wait for more Ari posts? Because my preference is the latter, but if you insist on seeing my logic, I'll do the former if you ask me to.

[MathBlade]

Newb or scum. Tbd which

My initial impression was in fact scum, but DoubtingThomas's push on Gypyx, while I disagreed with it, looked sincere.

However, I'm reassessing that and thinking it might be possible to be scum again (need to double-check DoubtingThomas's Dunnstral stance), with the sincere push being due to believing that there's 3ps in the game that can be genuinely scumhunted while being scum.

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions,

two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

.
This reads like a 5 self aligned rather than 7 town 2 mafia. Would love to be surprised though.

Emphasis added. There cannot be five 3ps with none of them being scum, because per schadd_, if the game is 4-5, then at least two of the 5 are a scumteam, with the remaining 3 being...whatever the fuck they'd be. (So it'd be more accurately represented as 4-2-x-x-x, but I've been saying 4-5 for the sake of simplicity even though that's not quite accurate, because the game does have two scum minimum, guaranteed, due to them having a mutual wincon and pt. Yaknow. The powers of a scum faction.)

Assuming I buy your argument the claims are inverse. And I cannot say why without being proscum/neut.

Well the only way I can explain why I think it's a potential town indicator for Ari is to explain what about it I think is town--which would allow Ari to fake it if he's not town.

Do you want me to explain what I saw in there as town or wait for more Ari posts? Because my preference is the latter, but if you insist on seeing my logic, I'll do the former if you ask me to.

No. I think we see the same things and reach different conclusions.

If you’re town you know highlighting what I see is bad there.

I would rather leave it as a disagreement.

[NicCage]

@Math
Dude it’s 3am.

Your slot and Mastina are my independent best guesses. Maybe TGP, but I actually started to think they were town with their behavior around the deadline. Gypyx maybe, I don’t townread them.

[MathBlade]

@Math
Dude it’s 3am.

Your slot and Mastina are my independent best guesses. Maybe TGP, but I actually started to think they were town with their behavior around the deadline. Gypyx maybe, I don’t townread them.

Dude I legit don’t know your timezone as it’s literally not displayed to me.
Then vote someone who you think could be scum.
I literally give 0 fucks if it’s me, but we’re sure as hell not eliminating Dunn if I have anything to say about it.

[MathBlade]

Give me something to work with if you’re town Nic.

[mastina]

Majority of thread is dissonant with you yet you’re not worried. Why?

Because the majority of the thread isn't dissonant with me and agrees that Dunnstral is probably scum?

Like.

At least five or six players have said that they thought Dunnstral was possibly scum.

The minority are the ones who have said they think Dunn is town;

they

are the ones dissonant with the majority.

Heck, even aside from Dunnstral, most of my reads are far from dissonant with others. People agreed with my DoubtingThomas suspicion; people agreed with my initial take on SKYEscrapers although I admit that seeing them as possibly town is a bit dissonant with others; I think Akarin is 50-5o on people townreading and scumreading her so I wouldn't call that a dissonant read; I believe most players are townreading Gypyx with only one or two scumreading the slot which means that my townread there isn't dissonant;

What reads of mine are in the minority?
Because I've felt fairly good with them and I've not seen very strong objections to my takes with most people agreeing with them.

You’re expecting me to buy you didn’t read the OP as town?

No, but I'm expecting you to buy that I missed a detail that I wouldn't fucking fake missing because missing it gives me zero benefit and in fact is detrimental to scumastina to have missed and that my lack of knowledge about it is sincere because I was genuinely unaware because in spite of reading, I didn't catch that detail about the game.

You know me; I don't fucking lie about things like this. I didn't see it. I don't know how I missed it, but I did, and once I was made aware of it, adjusted accordingly.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68714
If anyone cares this is why I think Dunn is town.

From the very first page, Dunnstral in that game immediately is not only more active than he's been this game, but also radiates townness, which he hasn't this game.

In that game I could tell from page one that Dunnstral was town.

In this game, there's no such townvibes radiating from him.

Like, Dunnstral that game and Dunnstral this game is the difference between night and day.
That game you linked isn't proof that Dunnstral is town; it's proof that Dunnstral is scum.

[mastina]

This is what I think. Mastina has spent the entirety of D1, before the above post at any rate, saying Dunn and I are scum together. IF she flips scum, I think that it very unlikely that she guessed that by random chance.

I guessed you were scum-scum with Dunnstral because the you-Dunnstral interactions felt entirely unnatural--I was not the only one to have made this observation, either. I was just the most prominent player to have made that stance and take.

As it turns out, your interactions were in fact unnatural with Dunnstral--I just got the reason wrong. Instead of being scum-scum forced awkward distancing as I had assumed, it was due to you two being in a neighborhood.

I do not have any information about the existence of a neighborhood in my role (spoiler alert; I am a pr but I would be a disastrously bad pr to claim D1).

So I did in fact, 'guess' it--but not by random chance; by deducing from the facts in front of me and forming a conclusion from them that happened to be mistaken because it was made out of

lacking

that information.

If I knew you were in a neighborhood with Dunnstral, then the play wouldn't be to push you as scum-scum, especially not by voting Dunnstral. I'd be pushing you two as hard-town. But I didn't because I didn't know.

Furthermore, let’s assume Dunn wants to be eliminated. Scum generally don’t want to be eliminated. This makes him either 3P or town with a death wish. I don’t anticipate in a micro if it’s a 2 scum game scum Dunn wanting to be eliminated D1. Dunn’s been around much too long for that.

Nothing in Dunnstral's play suggests he wants to be eliminated. He's, quite the opposite, being survivalistic.

[mastina]

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

For the record on my part.
I can't figure it out because there's too many candidates.

• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

Because I could see it as being any of these. (Tho given the nature of my role, if I had to guess, it might be Firefly?)

[MathBlade]

Also, Nic, did you figure out which Isis-sentence your role is linked to?

For the record on my part.
I can't figure it out because there's too many candidates.

• My cats' eye colors were virtually the same at birth, but diverged during their adolescence and became the best way to tell them apart.
  
• Once in Washington Square Park in NYC, I came across a man making music with empty containers, and I really liked it.
  
• It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.
  
• Dandelions are exciting because you can see their reproductive strategy so clearly.
  
• There should have been more than one season of Firefly.
  
• Drink lots of water every chance you get.
  
• Playing piano by memory and by reading sheet music are satisfying each in different ways.

Because I could see it as being any of these. (Tho given the nature of my role, if I had to guess, it might be Firefly?)

Damn it mastina pants.

New theory is the scum is in Nic/Dunn (but only with Nic)/and G

[MathBlade]

This of course completely goes by the wayside if Dunn is 3P.

If Dunn is 3P elim the crap out of Nic

[mastina]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

For the record.

This is the sort of crazy I think comes from a town-Mathblade.

It's not an absolute read (I did think Mathblade's crazy last game was town for quite a long time when it was him being scum trying to desperately further his wincon, which is what keeps it from being absolute), but it is still a pretty damn strong read, in that I don't think this is desperate-scum-Mathblade; I think this is genuinely town Mathblade, albeit one whose stances overlap partially with mine yet by and large diverge from mine in ways that I feel we can potentially sort and end up getting closer to being on the same page due to that partial overlap in spite of strong divergence.

Basically.

I feel like, while 3ps could be any number of people, in either 7-2 or 4 town, there's a large number of players that are town or "town".
You, Mathblade, TGP, Gypyx, and NicCage all come to mind.
Which leaves a small pool for scum, given this is a micro.
One which I think is {Dunnstral, DoubtingThomas} probably, with an ouside chance of SKYEscrapers (who in the 4 town scenario would be second only to NicCage in toping my 'probably benevolent 3p list').