Death Curse

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

because why

[Tayl0r Swift]

i have no issue with being scrolled so long as im in the first two slots.

[Tayl0r Swift]

but i will say that its my scumreads who are pushing to get me scrolled. so prolly im just sorta right about who is scum. rn i think uno might have to be town. that leaves {shelly, titus, pooky, fidget?}

[MURDERCAT]

because why

Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.

[Tayl0r Swift]

because why

Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.

i can point you to two scum on the wagon.

[shellyc]

Seems like I'm dying. I wouldnt be surprised if that was the hammer, and I'll kindly ask everyone to provide scroll preferences probably -> we HAVE to hit scum and I don't have 100% trust in my reads given scum just got another easy miselim.

As requested: (ordered btw)
TOWN-ZONE
shellyc
MUSHSHAGANA
MURDERCAT
Bell
PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
Titus

NULL-ZONE
Dripping Goofball
Adorable

4 scum in:
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
Noraa
Fidget

[Tayl0r Swift]

Seems like I'm dying. I wouldnt be surprised if that was the hammer, and I'll kindly ask everyone to provide scroll preferences probably -> we HAVE to hit scum and I don't have 100% trust in my reads given scum just got another easy miselim.

As requested: (ordered btw)
TOWN-ZONE
shellyc
MUSHSHAGANA
MURDERCAT
Bell
PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
Titus

NULL-ZONE
Dripping Goofball
Adorable

4 scum in:
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
Noraa
Fidget

well you town pretty much guarantees uno is scum.

[Titus]

@Taylor, why?

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Taylor, why?

a) your VCA. b) the game doesnt make sense if there isnt scum in those two.

[Tayl0r Swift]

@Taylor, why?

a) your VCA. b) the game doesnt make sense if there isnt scum in those two.

[Noraa]

Tay tay ur wifi is kinda garbage lately >.<
Maybe we need to give it a kick
*kicks Taytay's wifi, Mr. Bob*

[Noraa]

If shelly is hammered, whoever hammered, u suck for not letting me have the hammer.
If shelly isn't hammered, y'all offwagoners better not take my hammer.
Im off to bed. Will catch up tomorrow. If the hammer isn't down I WANTS IT >:(

[Gloria Cleary]

Votecount 1.20

(FINAL)

[11]

Toogeloo

:

Hopkirk

,

MURDERCAT

, Titus,

Toogeloo

,

Theta Alpine

,

MUSHSHAGANA

,

Lady Lambdadelta

,

Noraa

, UNOwen, shellyc,

Bell

HAMMER

[2] Tayl0r Swift:

PookyTheMagicalBear,

Bell

[2]

Bell

:

Tayl0r Swift,

Vaxkiller

[2] shellyc:

Fidget, Flea The Magician

[1]

Noraa

:

Adorable

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear

Gloria Cleary

[1] Adorable:

Lapsa

[1] Not Voting:

Zdenek

I find it hard to believe that any of those greens are wrong and I also doubt that wagon was all town.

Two or three would be scum on this, especially early game final wagon.

Both Fidget and Flea on Shelley, this is extremely interesting especially when you take into account Fred’s interactions and wifom with those slots.

[Gloria Cleary]

shellyc, Flea The Magician

, Adorable and Gloria Cleary.

Gloria pretty much said my thoughts. I have been scum reading Noraa which makes me think scum more likely put a placeholder tag on me thinking I would pass the scroll to Noraa and then I said I was leaning on passing the scroll to Fidget. Scum must have panicked and ended up putting a placeholder tag on LL. I can also see this as a good frame attempt on me. Fidget's late vote on Fred looked like a bus and it makes alot of sense for scum to bus for town cred. Most often it's always the town players who get scum read after a scum flip for not being on a scum wagon.

[Gloria Cleary]

i expect mafia behavior near deadline that favors mafia to be what zdenek did - which is basically lurk till deadline without slapping their vote on, not rushing to join a wagon on a green flip ESPECIALLY when the green flip gets to fucking fire a scroll at someone immediately after

¶

Votecount 2.5

(FINAL)

[9] Fredrick A Campbell:

Bell, MUSHSHAGANA, Flea The Magician, PookyTheMagicalBear, UNOwen, MURDERCAT, Titus, shellyc, Fidget

[1] Noraa:

Adorable

[1] Tayl0r Swift:

Fredrick A Campbell

[1] Fidget:

Tayl0r Swift

[1] Adorable:

Theta Alpine

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear:

Noraa

[3] Not Voting:

Lady Lambdadelta, DrippingGoofball, Gloria Cleary

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-11-06 21:29:24).

Joint moderator ISO.

Well, maybe I’m wrong on Flea then based on this since they were early.

[Gloria Cleary]

specifically I would expect the mafia to be at the beginning of the tooge wagon or off-wagon lurking.

for d2 when Fred became "inevitable" I would expect mafia to be rushing to join the wagon near the end but not on it in the beginning

Meant to quote this as well.

[Gloria Cleary]

Seems like I'm dying. I wouldnt be surprised if that was the hammer, and I'll kindly ask everyone to provide scroll preferences probably -> we HAVE to hit scum and I don't have 100% trust in my reads given scum just got another easy miselim.

As requested: (ordered btw)
TOWN-ZONE
shellyc
MUSHSHAGANA
MURDERCAT
Bell
PookyTheMagicalBear
Gloria Cleary
Titus

NULL-ZONE
Dripping Goofball
Adorable

4 scum in:
Tayl0r Swift
UNOwen
Flea The Magician
Noraa
Fidget

Obviously not Noraa. I don’t understand why she is still even in your list. It’s between Tayl0r or Fidget for me. Scum!Fred was either trying to save you or Fidget so if you’re town, it’s pretty easy. I wouldn’t be opposed to Tayl0r either because it’s super weird he didn’t include her in this hitlist.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Obviously not Noraa. I don’t understand why she is still even in your list. It’s between Tayl0r or Fidget for me. Scum!Fred was either trying to save you or Fidget so if you’re town, it’s pretty easy. I wouldn’t be opposed to Tayl0r either because it’s super weird he didn’t include her in this hitlist.

i mean its pretty clear that fred was trying to make the most of me thinking he was town. fred wants me to look suspicious, and the people i scumread are pushing for the same. you say its between me and fidget. ive had a consistent scumread on fidget since day 1/2. as scum its unlikely id have that kind of foresight. i feel good about it being shelly/uno, titus, pooky, fidget.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

because why

Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.

player behavior is not random

people do not flip a coin and decide whether to be on or off wagon.

they make informed decisions with the information they have

[Tayl0r Swift]

because why

Because of probability. Choosing 11 random players and having them all be town is less than 1/1000. I think that D1 without any info people play closer to random than most people probably think. It just seems unlikely to me that all 5 scum are off the wagon.

player behavior is not random

people do not flip a coin and decide whether to be on or off wagon.

they make informed decisions with the information they have

except not_mafia.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

its not like hard set gloria. flea could be mafia bussing early but its unlikely that a lot of mafia bussed in the early section of the wagon- more likely they are in the later section after the wagon gained "inevitablility" - just from a behavioral idea.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

except not_mafia.

this is a pointless comment to make

[Tayl0r Swift]

this is a pointless comment to make

^ was a pointless comment to make

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well you town pretty much guarantees uno is scum.

this is a massive lie

[Gloria Cleary]

its not like hard set gloria. flea could be mafia bussing early but its unlikely that a lot of mafia bussed in the early section of the wagon- more likely they are in the later section after the wagon gained "inevitablility" - just from a behavioral idea.

¶

Votecount 1.20

(FINAL)

[11] Toogeloo:

Hopkirk, MURDERCAT, Titus, Toogeloo, Theta Alpine, MUSHSHAGANA, Lady Lambdadelta, Noraa, UNOwen, shellyc, Bell

HAMMER

[2] Tayl0r Swift:

PookyTheMagicalBear, Bell

[2] Bell:

Tayl0r Swift, Vaxkiller

[2] shellyc:

Fidget, Flea The Magician

[1] Noraa:

Adorable

[1] PookyTheMagicalBear

Gloria Cleary

[1] Adorable:

Lapsa

[1] Not Voting:

Zdenek

With 20 alive, it takes 11 to curse someone with the scroll. If there is no majority by the deadline, the mafia will choose who to curse.

The cursing deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-28 03:35:35).

Joint moderator ISO.

Yeah possibly but there’s definitely something strange going on with those 3 slots: Shelley, Fidget, Flea because of the weird associatives of Fred switching his Adorable vote after she switched to Fidget and putting both Shelley and Flea in his hitlist.

If Shelley does flip scum, there’s very strong associatives between Fidget and Flea and same if she’s town.