976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[mastina]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

Btw since the MBOS large has ended, can I say I'm pretty sure this is the same TGP-town from that game, here?

He's vibing the same way he was with me that game, thus his repeat presence of pocketing me.

^I can maybe elaborate more on that when more lucid.

Speaking of things I want to do when more lucid:

Assume Nic is truthtelling, then Dunn has at best a 10% chance at group scum and 0% at 3P. Assume Nic is lying, eliminate Nic, problem solved.

I feel like Nic is guaranteed to not be scum here, albeit not necessarily having told the entire truth about his role, and even if he has told the entire truth about his role, I don't see why we'd eliminate him for it given that him flipping town wouldn't give us any more information than we have today. I feel like, given the lack of 100% townness on Dunnstral and the strong play-based evidence that Dunn is scum, he's the far better elimination today.

But that said,

I think this is genuinely town Mathblade, albeit one whose stances overlap partially with mine yet by and large diverge from mine in ways that I feel we can potentially sort and end up getting closer to being on the same page due to that partial overlap in spite of strong divergence.

I think we can work out this stuff better...when I am not half-asleep.

[MathBlade]

I feel like I am missing a lot there:

Both you and A say that Nic is unlikely to be scum to rather dramatic levels. A earlier and you now.
I don’t see how.
Nic is likely lying about his informed role.
Because of who I am I know the theories he pitched to Dunn are complete BS.
We know at minimum he made a mistake, one of which he seems to not want to confront.
He also claimed PR (didn’t say what) in addition to the flawed informed.

Dunn could be scum, but imho only if Nic is.
If Nic is town, I don’t see Dunn scum here.

[NicCage]

Remember that I didn’t intend to roleclaim. I don’t have any other abilities. I just wanted the scum to stay in the dark as much as possible.

Math, you are being a nutjob. Town Informed Neighbor is my full role. My reasoning about the setup, while potentially incorrect, is such a tiny point against me. I don’t understand why Dunnstral gets maximum latitude from you on terrible town behavior and yet I am so suspicious just on one error in reasoning. I am sorry that whatever little scrap of information you have makes you think my role is unlikely, but you need to take a breath and really look, because whatever you’ve got, it has to fit with my role.

And I’m not going to be browbeaten into following your lead. I think I’m right about Dunn and you are way off. I agree with Mastina about the game you posted. I also agree with Dunn that it is a four year old game. Your read on him is malformed no matter which way you shake it.

I’ll compromise if I have to, but only because I’m out of arguments and I haven’t convinced the players I think are town. Haven’t convinced anyone really, but I still think I’m right.

[NicCage]

Schadd says Math is right about the meaning of “mafia” in my role. So if we are in a 3p game, Dunn has to be town.

But Math, honestly that just makes me think Dunn is scum even more, because now there is no complicating factor of 3p. I still can’t believe as town he would let it get to this without lifting a finger to defend himself in private.

[MathBlade]

The problem I have is that in effect, you have what amounts to very close to an innocent on Dunn.
If it is 3P, then it is a 100% innocent on Dunn.
If it is a mafia game, then and only then should Dunn be considered.

Yes, I can see some of the arguments on paper. They seem reasonable. But you’re literally disregarding your own role to make them if it is true. I, having played with Dunn a lot, know a couple reasons he may play like this. Again, I am not saying he is not scum 100% full stop. What I am saying is that if I take you at your word, Dunn cannot be the elimination.

Despite this and knowing you made a mistake, you’re still full boar on Dunn, by definition is a tunnel. Without the hood to see why, it makes little strategic sense to be on what is very likely a miselimination based on your role. Especially as that’s usually not how informed works.

[MathBlade]

Schadd says Math is right about the meaning of “mafia” in my role. So if we are in a 3p game, Dunn has to be town.

But Math, honestly that just makes me think Dunn is scum even more, because now there is no complicating factor of 3p. I still can’t believe as town he would let it get to this without lifting a finger to defend himself in private.

This here for example either indicates you’re lying or in one hell of a tunnel.

“Because there is no complicating factor of 3P”. If you’re informed that 3P can’t exist at all in the game, then you’d literally have a very small chance of being right. You didn’t do as I asked and stop and reevaluate. It’s okay if it came up Dunn after but I can tell you didn’t.

[MathBlade]

Oh good lord. I am town, but not vanilla. The sentences inspiring the roles cause me to doubt anyone is vanilla, or just a plain goon. That is all.

If you disagree I don’t care. I could be wrong, I was just speculating to Dunn.

My role does say 10% mafia. But I assumed that actually means non-town. I can ask for clarification, but that was always my assumption. Pretty sure I’ve even said it before.

This here I really doubt. You said you’re town but not vanilla. This is plainly true from your Informed claim and your neighbor claim. This tells me Town Informed Neighbor is leaving something off. You then don’t have another power here and therefore wouldn’t imho write this sentence. This is out of place if true.

“Hey I am already claimed but let me state it in a different way to see if Math shuts up.”

You said you don’t care if I disagree, well I do, rather heavily.

[NicCage]

Not one bit of my read on Dunn has been overturned by my role or the new information about what it really means.

You say you see my arguments on paper, but it’s the probabilities that are what really exist on paper. My read is from concrete activities in the game. I don’t care about the probability. No player in the game has a high probability of being scum. I have said all of this already.

3p can exist in the game IF AND ONLY IF Dunn is town. Either he is town or scum. Earlier I had thought maybe being 3p could explain his strange behavior, but I see I am wrong and now that is no longer possible. I do not see a town explanation from my perspective. I have asked players to take every single point I’ve made about Dunn and give me a narrative of why he would do each and every point I’ve brought up, put together in one game. Not just one mistake, not just one behavior, why each and every one. No one has tried to do that.

I know you don’t know the neighborhood for sure, but I told it to you as honestly as I could. I think I did a good job paraphrasing and keeping all the information in. If you can’t get into my perspective, and see why I think what I do regardless of your agreement with me then I don’t know what to tell you. What exactly am I supposed to re-evaluate? Dunn’s play stands on its own.

[MathBlade]

Have you ever heard the phrase town cares about probability while scum cares about possibility?

[MathBlade]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... babilities

It’s very possible that you’re right.
It’s just not very probable.

You’ve either been proven to not follow mechanics, you’re actively attempting to poison the well against any VT claims, and are actively trying to shoehorn the game down one pathway. At a minimum you’re tunneled town. And that’s if I put you in the best light possible. I just don’t see it. It’s much simpler to say that you are scum who knows Dunn is town or is bussing Dunn for credit. Occam’s Razor. You’re asking me to swallow a lot here.

[MathBlade]

IMO you're being crazy here, MathBlade.

For the record.

This is the sort of crazy I think comes from a town-Mathblade.

It's not an absolute read (I did think Mathblade's crazy last game was town for quite a long time when it was him being scum trying to desperately further his wincon, which is what keeps it from being absolute), but it is still a pretty damn strong read, in that I don't think this is desperate-scum-Mathblade; I think this is genuinely town Mathblade, albeit one whose stances overlap partially with mine yet by and large diverge from mine in ways that I feel we can potentially sort and end up getting closer to being on the same page due to that partial overlap in spite of strong divergence.

Basically.

I feel like, while 3ps could be any number of people, in either 7-2 or 4 town, there's a large number of players that are town or "town".
You, Mathblade, TGP, Gypyx, and NicCage all come to mind.
Which leaves a small pool for scum, given this is a micro.
One which I think is {Dunnstral, DoubtingThomas} probably, with an ouside chance of SKYEscrapers (who in the 4 town scenario would be second only to NicCage in toping my 'probably benevolent 3p list').

Take this post from Mastina for example.
On the surface it looks okay, but then Mastina doesn’t do a deep dive of questioning that assumption that she is known for:

Assume Nic is 3P and all prior statements are true. There is then no chance Nic thinks Dunn is scum, he’d be thinking 3P. But then if we take him at his word and that he asked Schadd there is 0% chance of Dunn 3P.

So Nic truthtelling requires Nic town.
If Nic is lying then he is scum and/or 3P.

[MathBlade]

If Nic was 3P, he instantly unvotes Dunn, but despite being given multiple opportunities he hasn’t. So the only way Truthtelling Nic 3P works is if he is actively pushing someone he townreads.

This further narrows what is probable for Nic and the much simpler answer is that he is lying. That’s why I have been asking him to work towards who he thinks Dunn’s partner might me. Something to show he is hunting and he can’t do it.

[NicCage]

I am not going to do this anymore today. I don’t know what you want but I can’t keep cycling through the same points over and over. You have nothing concrete to say about my play. If you are town I highly disagree with how you are arguing against me; I feel like I am arguing with TGP all over again. I am not sure you are going about this with good motives however.

If it’s me I sincerely believe town needs to get Dunn. Mastina makes some fair points about my arguments against her, but don’t rule her out as a partner. Math is another good possibility. And maybe Gypyx. If it turns out it’s 3p I got nothing for ya.

[NicCage]

I have stuff to do Math. I already stayed up late playing. I am not rereading the game this afternoon. There is no one here but you to question and I don’t not want to spend my day painfully weaving through your speculations.

I’ll be around to make sure an elimination goes through, but consider this me starting my “Nic doesn’t organize his life around what Math wants” meta, since apparently meta is all-powerful against any bad behavior.

[Akarin]

You’ve either been proven to not follow mechanics, you’re actively attempting to poison the well against any VT claims, and are actively trying to shoehorn the game down one pathway.

At a minimum you’re tunneled town

. And that’s if I put you in the best light possible. I just don’t see it. It’s much simpler to say that you are scum who knows Dunn is town or is bussing Dunn for credit. Occam’s Razor.

I clearly disagree with you about how Occam's Razor works.

[Akarin]

@Nic

I'm absolutely not voting for Dunn today.

But I promise you, I'm not giving Dunn some permanent clear. If we flip a Mafia member, if we have 4 Town players dead in DDoLo, whatever, I swear I'm not giving him some permanent pass. But it doesn't make sense to me to Dastardly Deed him today, even if you disregard my townread of his response to the pressure. I'm reading everything you type though and I promise you it isn't just being ignored.

But like you, I'm not going to do some big homework exercise just because you asked me to here. I've thought about it, I actually agree on some of the earlier stuff, but I don't see this as being as problematic as you do in light of new information. I also don't think me trying to explain Dunn's behavior for him out loud is a productive idea in general right now. Anyway, just want to say that I'm not ignoring you even if I'm not going to vote the way you want me to today.

Maybe it'd be better to move on to talking about other stuff than MathBlade pushing you and you pushing Dunn.

[Akarin]

Mastina, why is TGP locktown?

Btw since the MBOS large has ended, can I say I'm pretty sure this is the same TGP-town from that game, here?

He's vibing the same way he was with me that game, thus his repeat presence of pocketing me.

^I can maybe elaborate more on that when more lucid.

I'd really appreciate that, I don't understand why a vibe like that leads to as confident a read as you're saying you have. Have you played in/read any TGP scum games to compare?

[NicCage]

@Nic

I'm absolutely not voting for Dunn today.

But I promise you, I'm not giving Dunn some permanent clear. If we flip a Mafia member, if we have 4 Town players dead in DDoLo, whatever, I swear I'm not giving him some permanent pass. But it doesn't make sense to me to Dastardly Deed him today, even if you disregard my townread of his response to the pressure. I'm reading everything you type though and I promise you it isn't just being ignored.

But like you, I'm not going to do some big homework exercise just because you asked me to here. I've thought about it, I actually agree on some of the earlier stuff, but I don't see this as being as problematic as you do in light of new information. I also don't think me trying to explain Dunn's behavior for him out loud is a productive idea in general right now. Anyway, just want to say that I'm not ignoring you even if I'm not going to vote the way you want me to today.

Maybe it'd be better to move on to talking about other stuff than MathBlade pushing you and you pushing Dunn.

Not explaining Dunn is fair. My point is only that no one should expect my read to change, when I don't see that my reasons for suspecting Dunn have been refuted in a substantial way. I understand that all players are capable of less-than-perfect town play, but it's hard to believe that so many separate actions and non-actions which I view as scummy could come together under one town player. I am open to changing my read, but there is no new information that would lead me to do so.

However, I understand that other players have a different perspective which can be genuine. I accept that I haven't convinced enough players. Moving on is a good idea, but I don't know which direction to go.

[MathBlade]

@Nic

I'm absolutely not voting for Dunn today.

But I promise you, I'm not giving Dunn some permanent clear. If we flip a Mafia member, if we have 4 Town players dead in DDoLo, whatever, I swear I'm not giving him some permanent pass. But it doesn't make sense to me to Dastardly Deed him today, even if you disregard my townread of his response to the pressure. I'm reading everything you type though and I promise you it isn't just being ignored.

But like you, I'm not going to do some big homework exercise just because you asked me to here. I've thought about it, I actually agree on some of the earlier stuff, but I don't see this as being as problematic as you do in light of new information. I also don't think me trying to explain Dunn's behavior for him out loud is a productive idea in general right now. Anyway, just want to say that I'm not ignoring you even if I'm not going to vote the way you want me to today.

Maybe it'd be better to move on to talking about other stuff than MathBlade pushing you and you pushing Dunn.

I can agree with this if I can see some sort of hunting from Nic

To me, Occam’s razor is simply put, the simplest explanation is likely right.

If Nic hunts I have no problem backing off and reevaluating.

[Akarin]

Math, I just meant that I think tunneling town is a simpler and more likely explanation.

Towns have been known to tunnel from time to time.

[Akarin]

Nic, who are your top 4-5 town reads? Maybe approach it from the PoE angle.

[NicCage]

If Nic hunts I have no problem backing off and reevaluating.

What do you see as the difference between this standard you are applying to me, and the one I was applying to Dunn?

[MathBlade]

If Nic hunts I have no problem backing off and reevaluating.

What do you see as the difference between this standard you are applying to me, and the one I was applying to Dunn?

I see it as more of an exploration.

You said you’re not rereading fine. But you’re not taking what you’ve already read and trying to figure out more. It seems like it’s more of a strategy to eliminate Dunn versus a read. You’re saying you don’t “know” what to do. If you’re town, no town knows what to do. We just ask questions and try to figure it out.

I want to see you doing your best to figure out who is scum with Dunn if you’re not willing to reevaluate that read.

[schadd_]

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[schadd_]

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