976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

Akarin · Post Post #675 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:38 am

In post 673, DoubtingThomas wrote:killing dunn is probably a necessity at this point regardless of his alignment. we need information there. him or niccage.

Why do you think those 2 give significantly more information than other eliminations? If Dunn flips town, what does it tell you?

Also, I really don't think a neighborhood is unlikely in a 9p game. Anyone else want to back me up on this.

And while I'm at it, I'll answer my earlier question, I really don't think a wagon getting pretty close to the Dastardly Deed is that rare on page 3 on this site.

MathBlade · Post Post #676 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:39 am

In post 672, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 668, MathBlade wrote:
In post 667, Akarin wrote:
In post 660, MathBlade wrote:
In post 214, Akarin wrote:Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.
Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?
Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?
Yes. 5 3P is valid they could all be scum.
certainly posts like this wehre I think 3p's are just trying super hard to hide the fact that they are 3p. Some others who seem to be responsible for this fallacy (e.g. dunnstral and nic) If I were a town, and if I am in a neighborhood with someone else who is saying stuff like "I have info that you are 10% chance of being scum! and especially now that nic pointed out there's a chance that the game is not 2 scum/7 town, my first guess is to be very very extra wary of the other person in my neighborhood. neighborhood just doesn't seem that plausible in a 9 player game with 2 scums.

or maybe dunn might be the actual scum in 2s/7t game so he's confbiasing himself? idk

I don’t know either. And with Dunn’s lack of effort he is a safe elimination, but I think Nic or A are the better plays. If Dunn flips 3P we do indeed have a conf scum in Nic but I don’t know if I am comfortable eliminating a probable inno.

MathBlade · Post Post #677 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:39 am

In post 673, DoubtingThomas wrote:killing dunn is probably a necessity at this point regardless of his alignment. we need information there. him or niccage.

In that I agree.

MathBlade · Post Post #678 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:41 am

In post 674, Akarin wrote:
In post 668, MathBlade wrote:
In post 667, Akarin wrote:
In post 660, MathBlade wrote:
In post 214, Akarin wrote:Okay, the only way I see this move making sense for teamscum!Gypyx is if he's partners with Dunn and panicked about how little resistance there might be to a Dunn Dastardly Deed. Otherwise it just seems too weird to be scum.
Why did you not consider Nic + Dunn a possibility?
Why did I not consider a Gypyx + Nic + Dunn scumteam in a 9 player game?
Yes. 5 3P is valid they could all be scum.
Because if they all have different wincons they aren't a team.

How does that give Gypyx a scum (or scummy 3P) motive for the push I was talking about?

This is correct, but if I am right there are 5 3P. Eliminating all the 3P means we win no matter what. It’s up to the 3Ps to townside if they aren’t a threat to us. Otherwise getting rid of them all works for me.

Akarin · Post Post #679 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:41 am

@Math: So do you think Gypyx is more towny from the section of game I was pointing at?

If not, why do you think he plays that way as 3P or scum, what's the agenda?

Akarin · Post Post #680 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:42 am

In post 1, schadd_ wrote:there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

MathBlade · Post Post #681 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:44 am

In post 679, Akarin wrote:@Math: So do you think Gypyx is more towny from the section of game I was pointing at?

If not, why do you think he plays that way as 3P or scum, what's the agenda?

I do.

I think that some of his posts are TWTBAW and if G is scum they make more sense as a 3P not a scum scum.

MathBlade · Post Post #682 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:46 am

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

^^ From the OP best you’ll get on mobile.

If all the 3Ps are dead if it is a 3P game we win by default.
If it’s a scum game when all the scum are dead.

MathBlade · Post Post #683 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:47 am

Instead of telling us who you won’t eliminate A, tell us who you will eliminate?

I do agree with G consolidation needs to happen.

Akarin · Post Post #684 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:49 am

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me

MathBlade · Post Post #685 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:50 am

In post 684, Akarin wrote:VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me

Okay why? If Mastina is town, I’d agree with her TGP read.

Gypyx · Post Post #686 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:51 am

Could anyone summarize me the case on nic?

What does TWTBAW mean?

Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin

Akarin · Post Post #687 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:51 am

If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

I don't think anyone is arguing we shouldn't eliminate 3rd parties.

Akarin · Post Post #688 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:53 am

In post 685, MathBlade wrote:
In post 684, Akarin wrote:VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
would also be okay with me
Okay why? If Mastina is town, I’d agree with her TGP read.

Because if I were a 2-shot dayvig, Mastina and TGP would be my hero shot right now.

And because Mastina hasn't given much reasoning on TGP and I trust that read less than I trust her read on you, because in your case I'm just asking if you'd respond that way because of your personality, rather than asking for vague town vibes.

Akarin · Post Post #689 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:54 am

In post 686, Gypyx wrote: Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin

I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.

MathBlade · Post Post #690 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:56 am

In post 686, Gypyx wrote:Could anyone summarize me the case on nic?

What does TWTBAW mean?

Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin

Too wolfie to be a wolf.

The case on Nic from my POV is
1) He didn’t take into account 3P when examining his informed claim.
2) His informed claim with a percent, is very out of character for MS. I’ve been here a loooong time and never seen it.
3) He considered Dunn to be a possible 3P despite his claim being confirmed as not being possible
4) He didn’t revise or unvote or hunt anywhere else.

^^ those are my main points.

MathBlade · Post Post #691 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:58 am

In post 687, Akarin wrote:If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

I don't think anyone is arguing we shouldn't eliminate 3rd parties.

Except you’re betraying your own argument with Gypsy when you say that.

You said earlier that there were scum if it’s a 3P game, specifically the two in the hood.

Do I have to go back and quote you?

Oh and hero Vig to me is you and Nic no questions asked.

Gypyx · Post Post #692 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:00 am

In post 689, Akarin wrote:
In post 686, Gypyx wrote: Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin
I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.

Why vote there then?

MathBlade · Post Post #693 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:04 am

In post 210, Akarin wrote:
In post 209, Gypyx wrote:Akarin / nic might be the team

Akarin, while you're here, why did you assume 2 scum vs 7 town?
Because it literally says that in the setup.

5 3rd parties of which 2 of them share a wincon and a PT is a 2-player scumteam. But we know which it is as soon as we get a non-town flip.

This here. Just in case you forgot.

It’s literally in the part you asked me to read.

Akarin · Post Post #694 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:05 am

In post 692, Gypyx wrote:
In post 689, Akarin wrote:
In post 686, Gypyx wrote: Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin
I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.
Why vote there then?

To see what happens, and because it was the way of answering Math's question that most amused me.

I'll be around to move it elsewhere.

MathBlade · Post Post #695 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:06 am

In post 694, Akarin wrote:
In post 692, Gypyx wrote:
In post 689, Akarin wrote:
In post 686, Gypyx wrote: Pedit : I doubt TGP is happening today akarin
I doubt it too. Not actually sure why though.
Why vote there then?
To see what happens, and because it was the way of answering Math's question that most amused me.

I'll be around to move it elsewhere.

So it’s a non answer answer and you’re hoping not to solve the Dunn/Nic issue.

Akarin · Post Post #696 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:07 am

Math, yes and they'd be 3rd Parties rather than actual Mafia, you'd just be able to hunt for them via associations like you hunt for Mafia (and I would assume they'd be likely to be the players with the most anti-town wincon due to preserving the game actually being a game of "mafia."

Mastina made the same point.

Akarin · Post Post #697 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:07 am

If by "hoping not to solve" you mean I think they're TvT as I've said multiple times?

Gypyx · Post Post #698 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:16 am

Also btw, i see it's been brought up, so my role pm has terms leaving 3p possible in it, therefore it's kinda weird for nic to have "town" and "mafia"

MathBlade · Post Post #699 (ISO) » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:25 am

In post 697, Akarin wrote:If by "hoping not to solve" you mean I think they're TvT as I've said multiple times?

Explain it like I am 5.