976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[mastina]

Fair warning: am very heavily groggy from having both not slept well last night, not gotten enough sleep, but also having gotten too much sleep, all at once.

Still tho.

Deadline being near means I need to be here in spite of how I'd prefer to not be.

Have you ever heard the phrase town cares about probability while scum cares about possibility?

For the record, Math.

I do admit.
When it comes to Dunn/Nic.
There is a dilemma.

I agree with you that Nic's claim is heavily suspect. 90% town 10% scum as an informed role doesn't make sense, especially not as a town role.
Nic's handling of it is bizarre and the number of times he's had to clarify and update the claim is also weird and worrying. Overall, there's a fairly large amount of evidence suggesting his claim is fake.

And in the world where it, somehow, is not fake, then by 90% probability versus 10% possibility, Dunnstral would be disproportionately likely to be town.

So yes. I live in a world where I don't trust Nic's claim, but if I were to, then Dunnstral should logically have a much higher chance of being town.

The problem is, by play all the facts overwhelmingly say that Nic is town-or-3p here, and that Dunnstral is scum here.
Dunnstral is not really scumhunting; he is lurking by and large. He's not contributing and he's not giving off townvibes at all.
He radiates the vibe of scum godfather, in being cheeky scum that knows he's obviously scum but is getting away with being obviously scum due to a "clear" on him.

His play literally fits that to a T.

And NicCage's play doesn't look like scum.
There is genuine scumhunting from him.
His takes look hard to fake, if not impossible. To be scum, he'd need to fake town-paranoia of me-Dunn as a team, fake town-paranoia of Dunnstral, and fake a push on Dunnstral made from scumhunting; basically, for him to be scum goes into beyond-master-level-scum-performances. I don't think he can be scum faking it, and I don't think scum thinking there's 3ps in here makes the claim Nic did and is able to fake the things he did.

Which is to say.

I know that by mechanics, NicCage's claim makes him most likely either scum or 3p...but by play he is very overwhelmingly town, to the point where I can't see how he plays this way as scum. I can't see it as scum. I can very very very easily see Nic's play as 3p, but I can't see it, from play, as being scum.

I know that by mechanics, if you trust NicCage's claim to be true, Dunnstral is most likely town...but by play he is very overwhelmingly acting like callous scum that doesn't give a damn due to being cocky that the Nic claim will protect him.

Dunnstral is not acting like an IC, like town who knows they are conftown and is using that to push leverage on things.
Dunnstral is acting like a Godfather, like scum who know they are being falsely 'cleared' and is using that to justify not putting any semblance of so much as pretending to be protown.

For me, what seems like the simplest and most likely explanation is that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is just scum, since it's the best way I can think of to reconcile the mechanical information with the play based information. If Nic is a 3p whose claim isn't 100% accurate, then the information on Dunnstral being 90% town isn't accurate.

In the scenario that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is scum, Nic's claim being suspect makes sense (because he's 3p), and his information not being accurate makes sense, and him looking overwhelmingly town by play makes sense (because as a 3p, he's not scum), and Dunnstral looking overwhelmingly scum by play makes sense (because as a presumable scum, him exploiting a 3p makes sense).

But that's the only scenario in which the mechanical reads and the play-based reads both make sense together.

In all other worlds, they clash with one being wrong.
If Nic is not a 3p, then either the mechanical suspicions are wrong (and he is somehow legitimately town in spite of the whack roleclaim) or the play read is wrong (and he has somehow faked this play as scum).
If Nic's information is real, then either the mechanical probability is wrong (and Dunnstral is the 10% scum), or the play read is wrong (and Dunnstral, in spite of overwhelmingly looking like scum, is somehow town).

So basically, there's three worlds to consider.
Mechanics-wrong; play-wrong; neither wrong, with Nic as 3p but with a bogus claim and Dunn as scum.

Do you see where I'm coming from here?

[MathBlade]

Fair warning: am very heavily groggy from having both not slept well last night, not gotten enough sleep, but also having gotten too much sleep, all at once.

Still tho.

Deadline being near means I need to be here in spite of how I'd prefer to not be.

Have you ever heard the phrase town cares about probability while scum cares about possibility?

For the record, Math.

I do admit.
When it comes to Dunn/Nic.
There is a dilemma.

I agree with you that Nic's claim is heavily suspect. 90% town 10% scum as an informed role doesn't make sense, especially not as a town role.
Nic's handling of it is bizarre and the number of times he's had to clarify and update the claim is also weird and worrying. Overall, there's a fairly large amount of evidence suggesting his claim is fake.

And in the world where it, somehow, is not fake, then by 90% probability versus 10% possibility, Dunnstral would be disproportionately likely to be town.

So yes. I live in a world where I don't trust Nic's claim, but if I were to, then Dunnstral should logically have a much higher chance of being town.

The problem is, by play all the facts overwhelmingly say that Nic is town-or-3p here, and that Dunnstral is scum here.
Dunnstral is not really scumhunting; he is lurking by and large. He's not contributing and he's not giving off townvibes at all.
He radiates the vibe of scum godfather, in being cheeky scum that knows he's obviously scum but is getting away with being obviously scum due to a "clear" on him.

His play literally fits that to a T.

And NicCage's play doesn't look like scum.
There is genuine scumhunting from him.
His takes look hard to fake, if not impossible. To be scum, he'd need to fake town-paranoia of me-Dunn as a team, fake town-paranoia of Dunnstral, and fake a push on Dunnstral made from scumhunting; basically, for him to be scum goes into beyond-master-level-scum-performances. I don't think he can be scum faking it, and I don't think scum thinking there's 3ps in here makes the claim Nic did and is able to fake the things he did.

Which is to say.

I know that by mechanics, NicCage's claim makes him most likely either scum or 3p...but by play he is very overwhelmingly town, to the point where I can't see how he plays this way as scum. I can't see it as scum. I can very very very easily see Nic's play as 3p, but I can't see it, from play, as being scum.

I know that by mechanics, if you trust NicCage's claim to be true, Dunnstral is most likely town...but by play he is very overwhelmingly acting like callous scum that doesn't give a damn due to being cocky that the Nic claim will protect him.

Dunnstral is not acting like an IC, like town who knows they are conftown and is using that to push leverage on things.
Dunnstral is acting like a Godfather, like scum who know they are being falsely 'cleared' and is using that to justify not putting any semblance of so much as pretending to be protown.

For me, what seems like the simplest and most likely explanation is that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is just scum, since it's the best way I can think of to reconcile the mechanical information with the play based information. If Nic is a 3p whose claim isn't 100% accurate, then the information on Dunnstral being 90% town isn't accurate.

In the scenario that Nic is a 3p and Dunnstral is scum, Nic's claim being suspect makes sense (because he's 3p), and his information not being accurate makes sense, and him looking overwhelmingly town by play makes sense (because as a 3p, he's not scum), and Dunnstral looking overwhelmingly scum by play makes sense (because as a presumable scum, him exploiting a 3p makes sense).

But that's the only scenario in which the mechanical reads and the play-based reads both make sense together.

In all other worlds, they clash with one being wrong.
If Nic is not a 3p, then either the mechanical suspicions are wrong (and he is somehow legitimately town in spite of the whack roleclaim) or the play read is wrong (and he has somehow faked this play as scum).
If Nic's information is real, then either the mechanical probability is wrong (and Dunnstral is the 10% scum), or the play read is wrong (and Dunnstral, in spite of overwhelmingly looking like scum, is somehow town).

So basically, there's three worlds to consider.
Mechanics-wrong; play-wrong; neither wrong, with Nic as 3p but with a bogus claim and Dunn as scum.

Do you see where I'm coming from here?

I do.

That’s why I much prefer eliminating Nic here. He’s not a cop and if you remove play he’s the most likely liar. Think of it like me. I have gotten away with some absolutely ridiculous claims because I get so well townread.

Dunn I agree also is scummy by play having not responded much here instead only feeding my arguments. That’s why it’s not a huge loss if he goes, but I am a huge proponent of eliminate the liar and see how it goes.

[MathBlade]

Although minor nitpick I haven’t seen hunting from Nic. Just tunneling.

[Akarin]

Explain it like I am 5.

If Nic and Dunn were a scumteam, then I don't know wtf they're doing. This doesn't look like a bus to me. It's not so much bussing as actively trying to get his partner killed in that scenario. Like, why?

I think it's

possible

that Nic and Dunn are both 3rd parties who share "some mutuality in wincon" but don't realize that, but that would have to mean that Nic as a 3rd party came up with a lie that implied there were no 3rd parties in the game, said it to Nic early in the game, clarified two or three times that it did actually preclude 3rd parties, when he knows 3rd parties will be flipped sooner or later if they exist. Nic doesn't seem that bad at the game to me. He's already admitted to making mistakes, why double down on the one that's being used as an argument against killing the person he wants killed?

If Nic's role is true, then Dunn can't be 3rd party and is less likely than average to be scum. I don't think there's 0% chance of Dunn being Mafia in this case, but I think it's low enough I really really don't want to Dastardly Deed him today. Plus gut.

Nic's push on Dunn looks exactly like town tunneling to me.

[mastina]

Assume Nic is 3P and all prior statements are true. There is then no chance Nic thinks Dunn is scum, he’d be thinking 3P.

The thing about that is.
If Nic is 3p and knows we're in a game with four town and five self-aligned players, with himself as one of the five.

He would still be operating under the, very justified, assumption that two of the self-aligned players function as a scumteam. There's multiple reasons for this. For one, the town wincon. "You win if all threats to the town are eliminated." Speaking from experience in schadd_ games, only factions whose wincon requires the town to lose count as threats to the town (the Society had a chance to cause everyone not them to lose--but were not threats to the town, because they could win with the town). In other words, at least one player in the five nontown must have a scum-or-sk wincon, and per schadd_'s phrase here...

two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread

Two nontown share a PT and share, mutually, between them, a wincon in some fashion or another.

If the game has four town and five nontown.
Then among the five nontown there must be a threat to the town, who need to be eliminated for the town to win. In this scenario, the threat to the town must have a wincon mutually exclusive to the town's wincon, else they are not classified as a threat.
In this scenario, we can then hypothesize that, in all probability, that of the five nontown, the two who share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon are by far the most likely to be the ones with a wincon mutually exclusive to the town--and by that logic, for all intents and purposes, these two players would be "scum".

Thus.
If Nic is a 3p.
Then I can see him thinking that Dunnstral is scum.
I can also see Nic as a 3p who was lying in his claim, thinking that Dunnstral is scum.

Basically.
Logically speaking.
Regardless of 7-2 or four town five nontown.
This game is going to have two scum/"scum" in very high chances.

So a 3p player can and will still scumhunt for scum.

[MathBlade]

@mastina
Regarding the first paragraph
No he cannot.
Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P.

He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

[Akarin]

Mastina, do you still townread Math as hard as you were before, especially the couple pages before this (when you get to it.)

Also, I'd really like to hear your reasoning on TGP in more detail, and if you've ever played with them as scum.

[Akarin]

@mastina
Regarding the first paragraph
No he cannot.
Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P.

He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

You keep arguing about what he can

think

like you assume it's impossible for him to have made a mistake.

Why does 3P Nic clarify his role the way he did?

[mastina]

I think I can explain it better than there, so let me put it more simply.
If the game is four town and five nontown, there must still be a threat to the town--the town win if that threat is eliminated. Otherwise, the game isn't mafia because the town could never lose. There MUST be a threat to them that could cause them to lose.
If there must be a threat to the town, it must be a nontown player(s) whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town--from experience, if a 3p exists whose wincon isn't mutually exclusive with the town's, then they are not classified as a threat to the town. After all, if said 3p fills their non-mutually-exclusive wincon, then the town doesn't lose from it (at least not directly).
If there must be a threat whose wincon is mutually exclusive to the town's, then for lack of better terminology the only factions which make sense are 'serial killer', 'cult', or 'mafia/werewolf/scum'. There must be at least one of these, but no more than four of these.

Given the game size, a D1 town win (from just one threat to the town) seems unlikely.
Given the small number of town in the game if there's 4 town, 3/4 mutually-exclusive-to-town seems unlikely.
Therefore, the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town is two.

schadd_ has stated that of the nontown, two will share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon.

It is not much of a leap from "the most likely number of nontown whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town, is two", and "schadd stated that of the nontown, two share a PT and have some mutuality in wincon", to conclude that the two players who share a PT with mutuality in wincon, are the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon.

If you make that leap, then for all intents and purposes, the two players whose wincon is mutually exclusive with the town's wincon, who share a PT and have some mutuality in their wincon, are for all intents and purposes, Scum.

So if a player is 3p, they still have good reason to scumhunt, because they still have good reason to believe that there's scum in the game.

Is this logical progression clear enough?

[MathBlade]

@mastina
Regarding the first paragraph
No he cannot.
Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P.

He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

You keep arguing about what he can

think

like you assume it's impossible for him to have made a mistake.

Why does 3P Nic clarify his role the way he did?

Oh I agree he could have made a mistake.

Just he can’t be truthtelling AND 3P is my point. Otherwise there is no way in his eyes for Dunn to be scum no matter how much he believes so and he’s unvote.

Mastina was theorizing truthtelling 3P who also believes Dunn is 3P.

My response is, no he’d have to be lying 3P who thought Dunn was also scum.

The only way Nic is truthtelling is if he is town.

[Akarin]

Yes, I think he's town too!

I'm glad we could all come together on this!

[MathBlade]

Mastina lmao that’s wordy as fuck and I have been on that page for a while. Yes, a 3P can townside a la your Titus hood did. However the main problem is that here we know that either scum or 3P are the only threats.

Therefore claiming one of those means more than likely not I want to eliminate them.

[MathBlade]

Yes, I think he's town too!

I'm glad we could all come together on this!

Oh no, we haven’t.

I think he’s a liar.

I just listed the only way he is town.

[Akarin]

I know, but your logic is exactly my argument except I think he's town.

I do not undestrand why the heck 3P Nic does most of what he's done this game. Or Mafia Nic for that matter.

[MathBlade]

I know, but your logic is exactly my argument except I think he's town.

I do not undestrand why the heck 3P Nic does most of what he's done this game. Or Mafia Nic for that matter.

See? That’s the exact dilemma I put people in when I am scum.

Instead you have to remove yourself from what you want to be true and what strategy you’d do, and instead what is actually happening. What are the facts?

[Akarin]

Like who fake claims to their neighbor that they have a 90% chance of being town and a 10% chance of being scum, then tunnels that neighbor, then repeatedly clarifies that their info rules out that neighbor being a 3rd party in a game with a mod-declared chance of there being 3rd parties and no "Mafia."

He could have lied.

[MathBlade]

Like who fake claims to their neighbor that they have a 90% chance of being town and a 10% chance of being scum, then tunnels that neighbor, then repeatedly clarifies that their info rules out that neighbor being a 3rd party in a game with a mod-declared chance of there being 3rd parties and no "Mafia."

He could have lied.

Actually no, he couldn’t.

Dunn outed him as saying it in the hood.

If he contradicted Dunn he gets eliminated faster than anything.

His play doesn’t even line up with his posting in thread.

[MathBlade]

I pushed Nic and Dunn specifically for a reason and it’s why I asked Dunn then Nic for the summary.

If he lies, then it’s a confirmed 1v1 and both likely end up dead.

The only option for him was to agree with Dunn as to the order.

Which then demonstrated his play in the 200s range makes no sense for a town player.

[Akarin]

He couldn't have said "oops, it actually says 90% chance of being town-aligned" and I just interpreted that as 10% Mafia" or something?

[Akarin]

@Dunn

How much did you two get into clarifying the specifics of the claimed Informed info in your PT? When did he clarify?

[MathBlade]

He couldn't have said "oops, it actually says 90% chance of being town-aligned" and I just interpreted that as 10% Mafia" or something?

He said something along those lines here in thread.

If 3P however he’d then be FORCED into unvoting Dunn as he’d have a clear understanding that Dunn would have to be lock town by claim.
If town, then he’d be much more interested in seeing a flip outside of Dunn having been reminded 3P is a thing.

Instead he barely answers the question then tries to push me.

That’s not how town works. At all. He reeks of OMGUS.

[Dunnstral]

Not a lot of clarification, never talked about mafia vs 3rd party

[MathBlade]

Why didn’t you try to work with me earlier Dunn? I gave you lots of opportunities in the PT

I was responding to you in the pt.

Care to give your own summary?

We exchange greetings but don't otherwise talk in pre-game
Game starts, nic makes some awkward posts in the main thread
In the pt asks what the odds are we can trust each other
I respond saying random, and that he is slightly above average to be mafia
He claims his role
I question him about the role and he says the game might not have a standard setup
I bring up some math for his role and ask if it is revealed when he dies
He says there could be 4 town and 5 third party
I say that's not something that happens and that there probably aren't going to be 3rd parties in a micro, or only 1
Nic rapid fires 3 posts, one telling me to read the mods first post and saying that every player should have a special role, the next asks for my opinion on DoubtingThomas since I've played with them before and mentioned putting pressure on Gypyx, and says I should press him in public, and then makes another post pointing out mastina calling us scum-scum for interactions
I respond saying I've only playing with DoubtingThomas once and don't have an opinion on his posts, and that his public posts looks like he's trying to get into the game through interrogation
He asks me if I'm playing things close
I respond saying I'm just not posting often
He continues questioning me and I tell him I'm not talkative in pts as town
He asks me if he should think I'm town, and also accuses me of being a role that doesn't have the ability to vote
I respond by pointing to his own role and saying yes he should think I'm town
He then says I'm the compromise vote

@Akarin Compare this to 273.

[Akarin]

Like who fake claims to their neighbor that they have a 90% chance of being town and a 10% chance of being scum, then tunnels that neighbor, then repeatedly clarifies that their info rules out that neighbor being a 3rd party in a game with a mod-declared chance of there being 3rd parties and no "Mafia."

He could have lied.

Actually no, he couldn’t.

Dunn outed him as saying it in the hood.

If he contradicted Dunn he gets eliminated faster than anything.

His play doesn’t even line up with his posting in thread.

When Dunn outed him as saying it, why did Nic "crumb" that info first? Why did it come out the way it did?

And if Nic really thinks Dunn would flip scummy 3rd party, why would he agree it ruled out 3rd parties? He had time to clarify, and if he thought Dunn would flip 3rd party, Dunn was losing that 1v1 at the time if Nic hadn't agreed to that.

[mastina]

Have you played in/read any TGP scum games to compare?

TGP has a blessing where if I am a player in a game with him, a reviewer in a game with him, or the mod of a game with him, he will always be town.

No joke!

I just spent half an hour or so searching his games--I did find two Normals where he did roll scum, but as it so happens, I reviewed neither of them and thus did not watch the play of either of them, so genuinely?

No, I have not played in/read any TGP scumgames to compare.
The dude is like, permanently a town player.
Given his relatively low amount of scumgames tho, I could try a cold secondhand meta-read of his scumgame, but it'd be with the caveats that,
1: cold meta reads are notoriously unreliable and very much not accurate, and,
2: It'd take a lot of time to do to sift through and get a grasp.

But I will say that, TGP's play here looks like what I've seen from him as town;
Even without meta, his play resonates with me as being town due to what he's seeing and what he's pushing.

I realize a lack of scum meta familiarity weakens both of those but I still think he's probably town anyway. A lack of a scum meta for him hasn't kept me from accurately townreading him before.