976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[Akarin]

If town, then he’d be much more interested in seeing a flip outside of Dunn having been reminded 3P is a thing.

So your argument is that town don't tunnel and get invested in their reads more than makes probabilistic sense. Got it.

[MathBlade]

At the outset of the game he was 90% town and 10% scum for me.

This is his role claim, by the way.

We're in a neighborhood together; he's claiming that he was told that I only have a 10% chance of being scum.

But now, if I were to put money on it, I'd say he's a third party.

Based on what? Lowposting?

@Akarin

No. Dunn explicitly said this was his role claim. At the outset, can mean literally a post at the start of the game. It’s not a crumb like < redacted > .

[MathBlade]

If town, then he’d be much more interested in seeing a flip outside of Dunn having been reminded 3P is a thing.

So your argument is that town don't tunnel and get invested in their reads more than makes probabilistic sense. Got it.

Lmao that is a misrep. Town can and do tunnel.

They just generally tunnel while keeping their role in mind, ala Mastina in the Serenity game. As scum I kept her focused on the mechanics to keep wanting April while telling her she was wrong.

Here if Nic was tunneling town I would expect him to behave much differently.

[Akarin]

I don't really think that's worth your time Mastina, thanks. It answers the question I had and as you said, probably isn't that useful.

What do you think of MathBlade's play more recently?

[mastina]

Maybe look at his behavior around the original deadline.

To me Gypyx has been town from the getgo and every step of the way that has been strengthened, including at the original deadline.

This is another case, similar to my Ari-read (btw the overall lack of posts from SKYEscrapers near deadline should be a red flag that automatically puts them back in the suspect pool), where I could explain it but I feel like it'd be detrimental to do so as it'd allow for Gypyx to fake the behavior that I saw as town.

[Akarin]

I'd expect scum/"scum" Nic to drop the tunnel in the face of evidence that people weren't buying it, it made less mechanical sense, and he had tons of opportunities to move his vote.

He seemed emotional and confbiased.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: Nic

Yup I have heard enough back to Nic. G is prob town.

[MathBlade]

If town, then he’d be much more interested in seeing a flip outside of Dunn having been reminded 3P is a thing.

So your argument is that town don't tunnel and get invested in their reads more than makes probabilistic sense. Got it.

Lmao that is a misrep. Town can and do tunnel.

They just generally tunnel while keeping their role in mind, ala Mastina in the Serenity game. As scum I kept her focused on the mechanics to keep wanting April while telling her she was wrong.

Here if Nic was tunneling town I would expect him to behave much differently.

I mean King’s Commander game * rip

[mastina]

(btw the overall lack of posts from SKYEscrapers near deadline should be a red flag that automatically puts them back in the suspect pool)

I think this is a big talking point worthy of emphasizing to people.

We are at deadline--

where did SKYEscrapers disappear to?

Keep in mind that they are a hydra that I think has three members?
Why have none of them been around? They haven't posted for nearly two days, yet Ari has been online today, and tris was online yesterday.

Why did neither of them come here within the last two days?

[Akarin]

@Math

Who other than Mastina do you think has played with you the most? (Including Ari or Tris in particular rather than just the hydra in general)?

[MathBlade]

@Math

Who other than Mastina do you think has played with you the most? (Including Ari or Tris in particular rather than just the hydra in general)?

Lmao uhm I have played here for almost 7 years that’s a list that’s way too f’in long. Let’s go with Ari as the second most and yes it is concerning but it’s not but it is.

I can’t say why but I am not interested due to an early game post and I don’t think Mastina should be unless we are getting into Shadowrun levels of scum.

[MathBlade]

The only way I see Sky as scum is 3P if it matters to you Mastina.

[mastina]

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
^^ From the OP best you’ll get on mobile.
If all the 3Ps are dead if it is a 3P game we win by default.
If it’s a scum game when all the scum are dead.

Math if the game is 4 town with five nontown, then the town has a minority on D1 and likely for the whole game.

Therefore, if the game is 4 town and five nontown, the vast majority of the nontown

must

be pro-town--think like how MBOS10 had two, separate, 3ps that were heavily protown.

This game needs to have that. There needs to be town-friendly 3ps if the game has only four town.

Therefore, trying to eliminate 3ps isn't productive; we should be trying to eliminate scum.

And I have very strong reason to believe that even if the game is 4 town 5 nontown, the game has a scum faction.
Because

I have

very

strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill

.

[MathBlade]

you win when all threats to the town are eliminated.
^^ From the OP best you’ll get on mobile.
If all the 3Ps are dead if it is a 3P game we win by default.
If it’s a scum game when all the scum are dead.

Math if the game is 4 town with five nontown, then the town has a minority on D1 and likely for the whole game.

Therefore, if the game is 4 town and five nontown, the vast majority of the nontown

must

be pro-town--think like how MBOS10 had two, separate, 3ps that were heavily protown.

This game needs to have that. There needs to be town-friendly 3ps if the game has only four town.

Therefore, trying to eliminate 3ps isn't productive; we should be trying to eliminate scum.

And I have very strong reason to believe that even if the game is 4 town 5 nontown, the game has a scum faction.
Because

I have

very

strong reasons to believe there is an antitown faction with the ability to nightkill

.

I agree with everything you have said.

And that’s why if it is a 3Ps game a 3P would have to be a killer.

That is why 3P claims have an extremely high bar if they exist.

[mastina]

If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

Where does schadd say this?

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread.

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?

Because between me knowing that there is an antitown faction that possesses a nightkill.
And there being a guarantee that in a 3p world there's a group of two who have mutuality in their wincon and a PT.
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

[MathBlade]

If there are 3rd parties, then there aren't any "Mafia."

Where does schadd say this?

there will either be 7 town and 2 mafia, or 4 town pitted against 5 self-aligned opposing factions, two of which have some mutuality in wincon and will be able to communicate via private thread.

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?

Because between me knowing that there is an antitown faction that possesses a nightkill.
And there being a guarantee that in a 3p world there's a group of two who have mutuality in their wincon and a PT.
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

The 3P faction could be called “Mafia”, but Nic earlier confirmed that his informed role claim worked off alignment not flavor name.

And I wholeheartedly agree with what you’re saying Mastina. Nic confirmed that if we are in a 3P world they cannot check as mafia to his informed. So if you believe Nic, this is a nonstarter.

[mastina]

Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P. He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

But he can be,
1: nonmalevolent 3p who was lying about his information,
2: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information but didn't understand it properly,
3: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information, but thinks that Dunnstral is Mafia and assumes Mafia is a malevolent faction this game.

None of these feel improbable/impossible to me; all feel at

least

plausible, if not

probable

.

[MathBlade]

Nic himself specifically confirmed 90% 10% mafia 0% 3P. He literally cannot he 3P and think Dunn is scum 3P.

But he can be,
1: nonmalevolent 3p who was lying about his information,
—-This is definitionally false
2: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information but didn't understand it properly,
—-This version unvotes when pushing conf!Town he’s has many chances.
3: nonmalevolent 3p who was telling the truth about his information, but thinks that Dunnstral is Mafia and assumes Mafia is a malevolent faction this game.
—- This version Nic himself rejected.

None of these feel improbable/impossible to me; all feel at

least

plausible, if not

probable

.

The most probable is you think lying at the start of the game is non malicious.

These are all ridiculous Mastina.

[mastina]

Mastina, do you still townread Math as hard as you were before, especially the couple pages before this (when you get to it.)

More and more, yes.
This is the reasonable Mathblade, the Mathblade whose logic may delve into moonlogic at times but whose base pushes and reasonings are largely outside of that zone.

I'm MORE sure of Mathblade being town here than I ever was before, specifically due to the fact that if Mathblade were scum, I'd expect him to, so to speak, be more "crazy" than he is right now. More bullheaded, more stubborn, more irrational, more controlling or complaining about controlling behavior from others.

But this Mathblade is actively trying to work with others, reach out to them, be reasonable, be open, be withdrawn from making absolute hard stances, has flexibility, etc. Just all-around. Town.

I'd really like to hear your reasoning on TGP in more detail

Basically.
Every time I have played with TheGoldenParadox.
His posts resonate with me a lot, with me seeing his logic, where he is coming from, his reasoning, and by and large, me agreeing with almost all of it, but critically, not literally every word of it. Where there's very significant overlap, but no absolute copy of stances. His reads/reasons aren't meant to buddy me, with him having developed them on his own, and yet I follow them start to finish and find them to be a very organic process that I can see forming from town but have trouble seeing scum come to.

But yes, I admit, I've no experience with him as scum.

[Akarin]

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?
...
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

I agree with you about the factions thing, that was the same "scumslip" I made earlier.

And sure, I guess there could be 1 player labeled "Mafia" but that seems very weird to me. The OP says the two would be self-aligned and just have mutuality in their wincon, so they couldn't

both

be Mafia and it seems kind of Bastard to label exactly 1 of those players Mafia but I guess it isn't literally impossible.

Anyway I think a lot of this has gotten

WAY

more focus than is healthy or relevant.

[MathBlade]

What stops a self-aligned faction from being called 'Mafia', and said self-aligned faction being explicitly antitown?
...
I have good reason to believe that even if the game is four town and five nontown, the game still has a "scum" faction.

I agree with you about the factions thing, that was the same "scumslip" I made earlier.

And sure, I guess there could be 1 player labeled "Mafia" but that seems very weird to me. The OP says the two would be self-aligned and just have mutuality in their wincon, so they couldn't

both

be Mafia and it seems kind of Bastard to label exactly 1 of those players Mafia but I guess it isn't literally impossible.

Anyway I think a lot of this has gotten

WAY

more focus than is healthy or relevant.

Nah. With how you responded earlier and how the player base has been, Dunn or Nic are likely the elimination.

If you think they’re both town provide a better scumspect and reasoning.

[mastina]

The only way I see Sky as scum is 3P if it matters to you Mastina.

Still tho.

I've like one or two reasons to townread SKYEscrapers, both of which are weakened in a 3p world, and rather a number of reasons to scumread them so if they are a "3p", there's a fair chance it's malevolent (i.e. that they're scum).

[MathBlade]

Mastina, do you still townread Math as hard as you were before, especially the couple pages before this (when you get to it.)

More and more, yes.
This is the reasonable Mathblade, the Mathblade whose logic may delve into moonlogic at times but whose base pushes and reasonings are largely outside of that zone.

I'm MORE sure of Mathblade being town here than I ever was before, specifically due to the fact that if Mathblade were scum, I'd expect him to, so to speak, be more "crazy" than he is right now. More bullheaded, more stubborn, more irrational, more controlling or complaining about controlling behavior from others.

But this Mathblade is actively trying to work with others, reach out to them, be reasonable, be open, be withdrawn from making absolute hard stances, has flexibility, etc. Just all-around. Town.

I'd really like to hear your reasoning on TGP in more detail

Basically.
Every time I have played with TheGoldenParadox.
His posts resonate with me a lot, with me seeing his logic, where he is coming from, his reasoning, and by and large, me agreeing with almost all of it, but critically, not literally every word of it. Where there's very significant overlap, but no absolute copy of stances. His reads/reasons aren't meant to buddy me, with him having developed them on his own, and yet I follow them start to finish and find them to be a very organic process that I can see forming from town but have trouble seeing scum come to.

But yes, I admit, I've no experience with him as scum.

Devil’s advocate this isn’t how one scum reads me.

But that’s my opinion.

But I am town. I will take right for the wrong reasons.

[Akarin]

I'm not allowed to do PoE?

[MathBlade]

The only way I see Sky as scum is 3P if it matters to you Mastina.

Still tho.

I've like one or two reasons to townread SKYEscrapers, both of which are weakened in a 3p world, and rather a number of reasons to scumread them so if they are a "3p", there's a fair chance it's malevolent (i.e. that they're scum).

I see that. But you’re missing something very antitown to say if what you’ve said previously is true. If this was just Ari slot, I would agree and they’d be higher on my list.

But something early game removes that for me.