Smoke-Filled Antechamber [Endgame]

[DrippingGoofball]

I am totally hung up on this one single point.

[DrippingGoofball]

Alisae chose to no-kill

But it makes no sense.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

There is no rationale for that.

Alisae-scum no-killing makes a lot more sense than Alisae-scum deciding to shoot Alisae-scum in hopes of a doctor protection especially since Alisae didn't even think I was a doctor at that point in the game.

Think about it this way:

If Alisae shoots emself - and Pooky protects Alisae, Alisae gets credit from being doc-prot on a nokill night.

However if Alisae no-kills - and Pooky protects Alisae, Alisae also gets the exact same credit from being doc-protected on that night.

There is no gain whatsoever to risk shooting yourself in hopes of being doc protected.


If Alisae shoots emself - and Pooky does not protect Alisae, then Alisae dies and the game is over - scum lose.

If Alisae no-kills and Pooky doesn't protect Alisae, then nothing happens and Alisae is alive to play on and try to win.

[DrippingGoofball]

But why no kill instead of kill...

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

The town has 2 lynches when there are 6 players alive.

The town also has 2 lynches when there are 5 players alive.

Choosing to not-kill does not change the number of lynches the town has.

[DrippingGoofball]

Still no explanation.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

you know the probability of hitting 1 scum in 6 people is 1/6

you know the probability of hitting 1 scum in 5 people is 1/5

it is harder for town to kill scum if there is more people alive right?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Town eliminating at 6 alive and 4 alive have a lower probability of hitting scum than town eliminating at 5 alive and 3 alive.

That's why scum like endgames where town is at even numbers rather than odd numbers in the endgame - it is easier for them to survive by a significant amount.

Also no-killing followed by no-lynching giving the town cop an extra investigation - you'd say "well why would scum want town to get extra investigation" the answer is because a godfather is

only useful

when the godfather is investigated. If no cop investigates the godfather, the role is basically useless.

Think about it,

Godfathers need to be investigated to use their power. If they do not get investigated they are the same use as mafia goons. No-killing gives Tammy an extra investigation and Alisae wants to be investigated for the town-credit.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I need to get some work done.

lets talk about this more tonight? pls dont hammer me yet

[DrippingGoofball]

Ok i will wait.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

ok I'm around now -

essentially Alisae-scum No-Kills on N4 so that the town has a wider POE pool on D5 - it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 6 players than 5 - similarly it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 4 players than 3.

It is better for scum to play 6p -> 4p lylo rather than 5p -> 3p lylo because their win probability is better.

If town declines the elim at 6 - town gets an extra investigation which helps Alisae-GF because if Alisae gets investigated they are on an even keel with any investigated townies in the endgame.

[DrippingGoofball]

ok I'm around now -

essentially Alisae-scum No-Kills on N4 so that the town has a wider POE pool on D5 - it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 6 players than 5 - similarly it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 4 players than 3.

It is better for scum to play 6p -> 4p lylo rather than 5p -> 3p lylo because their win probability is better.

If town declines the elim at 6 - town gets an extra investigation which helps Alisae-GF because if Alisae gets investigated they are on an even keel with any investigated townies in the endgame.

nah

I've been in many scum teams and never saw any such calculations.

Alisae has forsaken me

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

that's literally what the scum did this game though...

you know for a fact that regardless of which of me/alisae is scum, the scum no-killed on N4.

You also know it makes much more sense for scum to no-kill if the last scum is a godfather.

[Alisae]

i just woke up
gonna do waking up stuff and make some food

[Alisae]

youtube down time to play mafia

[Alisae]

ok I'm around now -

essentially Alisae-scum No-Kills on N4 so that the town has a wider POE pool on D5 - it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 6 players than 5 - similarly it is harder for the town to hit a scum in 4 players than 3.

It is better for scum to play 6p -> 4p lylo rather than 5p -> 3p lylo because their win probability is better.

If town declines the elim at 6 - town gets an extra investigation which helps Alisae-GF because if Alisae gets investigated they are on an even keel with any investigated townies in the endgame.

Or I could just shoot Peta or EVEN better: I could shoot Tammy, go "Pooky wtf?????" and vote you.

[Alisae]

DGB, who is more likely to fakeclaim mason lovers with a random player, a doctor who is only told that they are town, or mafia?
I've seen Mafia fakeclaim masons with a villager before. They also had a janitor so it made sense for them to try to make that play.
I've never seen a villager who is only told that they are town, ask a random player to fakeclaim masons with them. Have you?

[Alisae]

Pooky needs to justify why as a villager he made that play and he hasn't yet and honestly, I don't think he can.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Or I could just shoot Peta or EVEN better: I could shoot Tammy, go "Pooky wtf?????" and vote you.

if you did that you just die next. town has 2 elims.

our positions are exactly mirrrored.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Pooky needs to justify why as a villager he made that play and he hasn't yet and honestly, I don't think he can.

I did it because at the time I was town-reading you and thought it would be a fun play to tilt the scum team. I didn't think you would be scum :/

[Alisae]

Or I could just shoot Peta or EVEN better: I could shoot Tammy, go "Pooky wtf?????" and vote you.

if you did that you just die next. town has 2 elims.

our positions are exactly mirrrored.

F5 Nahdia, Me, Pooky, Peta, Midway.
Pooky dies during the day.
I shoot Nahdia.

F3 of Me, Peta, and Midway looks pretty winnable for me.

[Alisae]

Pooky needs to justify why as a villager he made that play and he hasn't yet and honestly, I don't think he can.

I did it because at the time I was town-reading you and thought it would be a fun play to tilt the scum team. I didn't think you would be scum :/

Okay, let's see how this flys

Hey DGB, what do you think of this? Do you think this is a strong enough reason for a villager who only has the information in their role pm that they are town, to fakeclaim mason lovers with another villager?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

F5 Nahdia, Me, Pooky, Peta, Midway.
Pooky dies during the day.
I shoot Nahdia.

F3 of Me, Peta, and Midway looks pretty winnable for me.

?!

We were both claiming doctor mason lover - you had promised to tammy that you would keep her safe. You really think you can get away with shooting Tammy at night!?

[Alisae]

F5 Nahdia, Me, Pooky, Peta, Midway.
Pooky dies during the day.
I shoot Nahdia.

F3 of Me, Peta, and Midway looks pretty winnable for me.

?!

We were both claiming doctor mason lover - you had promised to tammy that you would keep her safe. You really think you can get away with shooting Tammy at night!?

Yes

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

You're pretty good at mafia but I don't think anyone is

that

good.