Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Hoopla]

who are we thinking of NK'ing?

i'm still leaning towards uncrowned. he's obvtown and probably won't be a mis-elim candidate any time soon. i suppose we could cut our losses and elim skitter before she sinks her teeth into the game even more, but i'm hopeful the paranoia of skitter/menalque will come into play if we mis-elim tomorrow.

imo, the N3 vig/vengeful will be in dunn/skitter/dave with an outside chance of dropping to the next bracket in uncrowned/infinity/peta. if we NK uncrowned tonight, get dunn elim'ed tomorrow, we can JK/redirect the two remaining highly likely vig slots. meaning, a vig shot only occurs if it's one we've redirected.

i'm somewhat concerned dunnstral picked vengeful and is playing under the radar deliberately to survive longterm, and then has a vengeful shot up his sleeve in case he's executed. he'd probably shoot me if that's the case.

[lilith2013]

I think dunn and dave might both be VT who tried for the JK/tracker slot, given their reactions to my claim

[Something_Smart]

N3 vig could be pretty low, last game ducky was 7th and got it. I agree with Dunn VT, not as sure about dave.

I like Uncrowned kill. Decent PR chance, universally townread.

[Something_Smart]

Thinking about my own claim, I'd really like to avoid cop. If I were to go for cop I think I'd be claiming innos on both of you because we can't let the game run too long or I'll get myself PoE'd and it will look crazy that I'm not dead.

Roleblocker is pretty much unfeasible, I would have claimed or at least heavily softed yesterday.

Doctor is plausible, I was thinking I could claim a skitter save pretty believably, lack of crumbs makes sense because scum would be keeping an eye out for them. Disadvantage of this is that if I don't claim doctor, lilith is basically conftown, but if I do and lilith gets killed then I become conftown. Then I immediately have to explain why I didn't die-- plus people would totally expect me to do a no-kill gambit, so they may see through it.

VT is also plausible, but I do have to be careful, because TGP has revealed that somebody got the cop/redirector slot, and if nobody claims it the focus is going to be on the VT claims above the others. That will depend on the situation.

[Something_Smart]

Let's see-- if I were to do cop claim, it would be:
- Kill Uncrowned (8:3)
- Inno one partner, execute Dunnstral (7:3)
- Kill someone (skitter?) (6:3)
- Inno the other partner, execute someone (5:3)
- Kill someone (4:3)
- Guilty someone and win?

I think I can hold out on this decision at least one more day, I can soft an inno on one of you two. If I am forced to claim, I have the advantage of knowing that we won't get a doctor claim and so as long as we don't massclaim the scum can't know there is no doc and so they can't kill me safely. That's potentially a reason to inno Hoopla first, because she could in theory be doctor and if she's inno'd then she has an excuse to not claim.

Actually, it might be better to do that with dave-- if I claim on D4, I can tell my innos not to claim, and between dave and Hoopla it makes total sense to say dave would be more likely to be doc and thus would die on N4.

This is still a pretty risky play because of how house-of-cardsy it is, but it's definitely something to keep in mind, especially if pressure starts ramping up on you two.

[Hoopla]

i still think VT is safest. there will be enough VT's around to stay hidden amongst.

but keeping our options open until D4 would be ideal.

[Hoopla]

mmm, that endgame scenario is very house-of-cardsy SS. but it could be a consideration if the right events transpire.

[lilith2013]

I'm fine with an uncrowned kill. who should i JK?

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla kills Uncrowned

Probably JK one of the 4's?

[Hoopla]

sorry friends. haven't had a lot of time to think about this game (my friday and saturday will be busy too). so hopefully D3 starts out as expected.

wouldn't lilith JK menalque again?

[Something_Smart]

probably not?

I don't think scum would kill him twice in a row. Maybe she could do it in an attempt to catch him making the kill, though iirc she's townreading him now.

[lilith2013]

jailkeep infinity

[Hoopla]

probably not?

I don't think scum would kill him twice in a row. Maybe she could do it in an attempt to catch him making the kill, though iirc she's townreading him now.

i suppose that makes sense!

[Hoopla]

i think massclaim will happen on D4, which will reveal there was no doc in the setup.

if this happens, menalque could come under suspicion again for being jailed OR menalque will go after skitter for trying to get him NK'ed. one more phase alive for the two of them and the paranoia will be simmering along nicely.

[Hoopla]

also, i'm visualising a possible way a doc claim can make sense from my perspective to claim on D4. if we mis-elim today, we're in 3:6 tomorrow. we massclaim, i claim doc, and we organise a plan where lilith & me cross-protect, flipping a coin to determine whether she JK's me or not.

this rules us out of the elim pool D4, and if i say my doc save was on SS N1 (which is kinda logical from my play), we remove SS from the elim pool too, guaranteeing a mis-elim D4, which takes us to 3:5 on N4. we then no-kill again to solidify our claims. losing an NK here isn't a big deal as it's MYLO on D5, forcing town to no-elim or take the chance then and there.

this ties our entire team together, so if one of us is caught, the whole team probably gets caught, but it is a low% conspiracy from a town-perspective, so they should PoE the game outside of our slots?

it's a risk, and it probably depends on how the town is viewing skitter/menalque on D4 and how much PoE occurs from the neighbouriser claiming (this will likely be a pretty conftown slot).

[Hoopla]

ideally we want to hit the neighbouriser with our kill tonight. lets see if we can PoE this at all:

dunn - nope, was neighbourised last night
skitter - asked if anyone was neighbourised N1, so doubt it is her
davesaz -
infinity - nope. we JK'ed him last night and dunn was neighbourised
peta -
menalque - VT
JV/not_mafia -
best_bird -

looks like it's probably between dave & peta, though there is a chance it fell low. will look for crumbs tonight when i get a chance.

[Hoopla]

actually, rereading my ISO, i've probably made too many contradictory doc-speculating posts that me claiming a doc save on SS N1 would probably be weird.

i *could* say it was me trying to disguise myself amongst the crowd if scum was doc-hunting, as the doc staying alive is the key to the setup for town.

[Hoopla]

if we go for this play, the potential for this to unravel could be here:

losing an NK here isn't a big deal as it's MYLO on D5, forcing town to no-elim or take the chance then and there.

if town no-elim's on D5, we again have to no-kill as one of me or lilith has to logically die. so this could leave us in a stalemate, but more realistically, since scum has a 50/50 chance of killing me or lilith if we're both town cross-protecting, a no-kill happening two nights in a row is only a 25% chance, which could make the conspiracy seem a more likely explanation.

[Something_Smart]

You know what would be incredibly funny, incidentally? Would be if S_S and lili are scum together again and we’re both town only we’ve reversed in terms of which one we think is scum from JK9++

*whistles nonchalantly*

[Something_Smart]

there's a bit of a catch-22 regarding claims:

if neither of us claims doc, then lilith will be basically confirmed town because she's the only one who could have stopped the kill. but if nobody claims doc, then there will be literally zero explanation for why lilith isn't dead.

I don't hate the Hoopla doc claim idea, but I think that the literal bottom person claiming such a strong role might raise some informed fakeclaim vibes. Though, if nobody claims doc, people are probably going to figure out that doc is the role scum were informed about, and then lilith not dying looks a lot weirder. So I think one of us should probably claim doc. Which one it is... well, that remains to be seen.

[Hoopla]

if it's you that claims doc (i'm open to the idea), some questions to consider:

who was your N1 target? from your PoE that player is highly likely town, so do you think your D2 play matches that person?
i can't remember how much doc speculating you did, or how gung-ho you reacted to lilith's JK choice. is that believable from a you-doc PoE?

you can claim to have doc'd lilith N2, so it's mostly the N1 action that needs to be considered.

[Something_Smart]

who was your N1 target?

I was thinking skitter. That's consistent with my play.

[Hoopla]

D4 would be 3:6 (if we mis-elim today), so massclaim should be happening then. by you claiming doc, you remove her from the elim-pool. but since you/lilith should be removed from the elim-pool too, it's probably just my slot we need to worry about.

the neighbouriser is probably also removed from the elim-pool too.

also, town would be looking for a missing cop fakeclaiming which may complicate things.

[Hoopla]

did you townread lilith D1?

you could have considered doc'ing top of the draft thinking it was the likeliest scum NK. means we don't have to pseudo-confirm skitter on D4, as she is a mis-elim we want on the table.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think protecting lilith would be believable; in addition to her being fairly widely scumread and not likely to die, people might suspect a gambit involving both of us.

I would not count on skitter as an execution. I'd much rather try to pocket her as she'll be someone very valuable to have on my side.