that would be fun, but is sadly not the caseIn post 2671, Best Bird wrote:I find myself aligning more with mena's thoughts than skitter's at this point - and am foregoing my paranoia read that they are both scum batting us around like a cat with a ball of yarn - so consider my vote for dunn.
tl;drIn post 2637, davesaz wrote:I'm torn between following two basic principles.
One basic principle is that you don't pressure suspected TPRs because they have greater utility on average than non-PRs. Especially in a game like this, you give them room to operate.
The other basic principle works like "duck typing" in programming. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck. Someone who isn't scumhunting, especially those making an effort to be present but not scumhunt, are typically scum. My gold standard for this is people either not expressing scumreads, or saying things about alignment opinions but never giving a real reason.
By the TPR principle I'm explicitly against pressuring the top 5-6 draft picks early in the game,regardless of behavior. They can be the last elims because the ones left standing are the ones most likely to be scum. If we have a doc we may get lucky and have more no-kill nights, extending the game to the point where a pure mechanical solve is possible. If we have 1-shots that are more useful the smaller the player list gets, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.
By the not scumhunting principle, I'm being pinged by Dunnstral, Something_Smart, and Best Bird. 2/3 of those are especially annoying because people explicitly townread them for things that I would consider to be NAI at best and explicitly scumtells in most players. Not_Mafia will take his slot from a "weird but could be town" read straight to this category. The conflict between this principle and the TPR principle is obviously largest in Dunnstral.
I tend to SR people who don't acknowledge the TPR principle. Hoopla is a prime candidate for this award. I really don't give a shit what the numbers say about scum doubling or not doubling. The TPR principle overrides that. If you don't have an explicit reason to scumread a presumed TPR, you don't yeet them, period. One thing gives me pause here, and that's the "protect via suspecting" strategy. Scum will choose not to NK people that they think are easy miselims. I have to acknowledge that some players purposely "suspect" the players they have identified as likely TPRs so that scum won't kill them as universal town reads.
What this all boils down to is thinking for today (and possibly tomorrow) that we should eliminate either the soft guilty from N1 to rule it out, or an explicitly scummy or not scumhunting player from the later part of the draft. The only scenario that can actually burn us with this strategy is all 3 scum in the early part because they all picked low unique numbers and town got extremely unlucky to not double any of the scum low numbers. I'm not unwilling to eliminate Dunnstral because I can see him playing this way as scum, but I'm concerned about it being too early from a pure mechanical point of view.
He has directly crumbed at least one of the roles you mentioned.In post 2663, Menalque wrote:If you think scum haven’t already had/aren’t already having this conversation then you’re delusionalIn post 2644, davesaz wrote:Talking about it at all helps scum. Nice job.
Please answer the question
What role could dunn have that would be so strong that it makes sense to just let him be indefinitely despite his play
To be clear, Dunn is scummy but not to the point I want him elimmed today.In post 2670, Menalque wrote:To be clear: skitter scummy, but not to the point where I want her elimmed today
Well since it's out there, i'll just say i spotted this too, and this is the primary reason i'm opposing dunn rnIn post 2679, davesaz wrote:He has directly crumbed at least one of the roles you mentioned.
tyIn post 2676, Menalque wrote:I will not push for Dunn’s actual flip until you get back, although I do want that claim now that we have intent
Have a good one! Also agree it would be fun if this was elaborate theatre
In post 2682, skitter30 wrote:Well since it's out there, i'll just say i spotted this too, and this is the primary reason i'm opposing dunn rnIn post 2679, davesaz wrote:He has directly crumbed at least one of the roles you mentioned.
I explicitlydo not tr him on play
so let me get this straight: you want to flip lilith, claim be damned, and say that the scumteam could reasonably deduce most roles by now, but oppose the vote on Dunnstral because he crumbed a role?In post 2683, skitter30 wrote:tyIn post 2676, Menalque wrote:I will not push for Dunn’s actual flip until you get back, although I do want that claim now that we have intent
Have a good one! Also agree it would be fun if this was elaborate theatre
and you don't need to wait for me, i just said what i was thinking tbh so like whatever
he's probably gonna claim what he softed
idk if i believe it or not but if we're not gonna vote out lilith we can't really vote him out either :shrug:
this is a problem that seasonal players like me get stuck with since i have so little history with the current player pool. some of my modes of interpreting behaviour seem dated, or at very least, people play very differently now and i find it hard to see the subtleties between say, two hyper-posters, or two shoot-the-breeze one-liner players, so i end up having to trust people with more meta knowledge on what the correct read is for each individual.In post 2627, Infinity 324 wrote:Mena, do you know if skitter would be more open minded to lilith!town as town here? I can relate to the idea of knowing how to read someone and trusting your read in them 100%, but if there are other people in the game that also know how to read lilith, it doesn't make a ton of sense to hold on to the read this long right? Idk, we're getting into the problem of people knowing each other's meta better than me, and generally being better scumhunters, but I wanna know if I wrote skitter off as town too early.
Probably best to table this discussion until after Dunn claims...In post 2686, lilith2013 wrote:dunn softed??? I thought he was hinting at something else entirely and that’s why I thought he was town.
also yeah, why does dunn get a pass for a soft?
Sorry, I’m afraid I’m not necessarily going to be a lot of help here, I feel conflicted too.In post 2688, Hoopla wrote:whatever happened to your infinity scumread? has that fallen away since you replaced in? you seemed pretty gung-ho about that from what i recall.
either way i'd like an updated read there. i keep to-ing & fro-ing on him. i think he has a creative way with words & concepts and i like his posting style in general. my issue is, i think i tend to positively bias players whose posts i like reading.
The two people who are probably *best* at reading lili this game are skitt and S_SIn post 2627, Infinity 324 wrote:Mena, do you know if skitter would be more open minded to lilith!town as town here? I can relate to the idea of knowing how to read someone and trusting your read in them 100%, but if there are other people in the game that also know how to read lilith, it doesn't make a ton of sense to hold on to the read this long right? Idk, we're getting into the problem of people knowing each other's meta better than me, and generally being better scumhunters, but I wanna know if I wrote skitter off as town too early.
That was GnR:IV right? She was hard to spot there imo but me and ABR destructing the thread probably didn’t helpIn post 2695, Something_Smart wrote:(Our first game together since she came back, that is.)
In post 2427, Menalque wrote:I’m pretty sure there is at least one but not 3 scum in (lil, Dave, Best Bird, peta, infinity)
In post 2430, Menalque wrote:EBWOPIn post 2428, Menalque wrote:I think there is still a decent chance of 1 scum in (hoopla, best bird, NM)
How does this add up?In post 2433, Menalque wrote:There’s also prob 1 scum in (Best Bird, peta, Dave. S_S, skitt)In post 1671, the worst wrote:
