Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[skitter30]

yes, we're remarkably close to being in that sort of gamestate, so it'll get resolved any moment now ...

[Menalque]

Dunn is gonna flip scum and then tomorrow in my first post I’m gonna quote the flip and your post right there skitter and say “o ye of little faith”

[Menalque]

I mean we have 2 more misguillos incl today before we hit rolling lylo, and then could be staved off with good power usage at night

So if we are accurate with the solve and it includes lili by the EoD tomorrow, it should still be okay to say she resolves by claim on like D7 at worst (or at least goes into a 50/50 claim off)

[Menalque]

I will be legit surprised here if dunn is town

[skitter30]

uch you're requiring me to have, like, 'patience'

[Menalque]

Consider it this way: if lili doesn’t turn up and provide satisfactory answers to the questions that are awaiting her, I will prove almost infinitely more amenable to the idea of executing her tomorrow

[Hoopla]

hello all, checking in!

dunn's claim makes me hesitate somewhat, but realistically he is the play today. letting a VT claim slip through the cracks in pursuit of marginally better odds elsewhere (which is debatable anyway) is a pointless endeavour. or perhaps even quite -EV as we risk outing the cop/neighbouriser earlier than we need to. the cop especially we want to keep hidden until at least tomorrow (maybe longer if dunn's elim flips red).

i suppose nobody is

really

proposing shifting elsewhere, but what exactly are we holding up on? feels like we're playing with our food, when proper etiquette would be to chow down right about now.

[Hoopla]

also, did anyone actually end up verifying the existence of the neighbouriser or nah?

if dunn is scum it would suggest the neighborizer is town, as he felt the need to claim it straightaway

i suppose i'll field this topic before we lower the curtains on today.

based on the stats, neighbouriser is 13-0 as a town selection, so it may as well be conf-town when it claims. for that reason, stop trying to narrow down the possible pool of where it could be. i know it's only one slot PoE'd (two if skitter is town since she removed herself from the pool), but improving scum's knowledge of where the neighbouriser is located simultaneously improves their ability to narrow down cop and/or doc.

given we might stumble into some potential cop/hidden-doc or conf-inno/hidden-doc endgames, the less exposed now, the better. at least until we massclaim.

[davesaz]

I'm struggling to find a reason for town!Dunn to play this way and coming up blank.

[skitter30]

neighbouriser is 13-0 as a town selection, so it may as well be conf-town when it claims. for that reason, stop trying to narrow down the possible pool of where it could be. i know it's only one slot PoE'd (two if skitter is town since she removed herself from the pool),

a) i'm p sure i took neighborizer as scum in venrob's version of this game (whoo look at me breaking the odds)
b) i know what i'm doing wrt mechanics (sometimes at least)

[Infinity 324]

I think lilith had some things she'd like to address today, so I'm gonna wait for her to check in before voting dunn.

[Hoopla]

scum have the advantage of a lot of information in this setup (even more with informed), so all these little leaks add up, and may lead them to the correct sequence of nightkills they need to avoid being boxed in via PoE once we massclaim.

seems like pretty 101 stuff to me.

there's not even a supposed advantage to confirming the existence of the role now.

[lilith2013]

okay I’m probably not going to have enough brain energy for efforting before the day ends. tldr on scumreads:

infinity - I don’t think he really interacted with either elimination wagon, and was townreading TGP but as far as I can tell didn’t really try to divert that wagon away; if mena was the N1 kill, then I think infinity is one of the players with the most to gain from mena dying. He’s also spent a majority of the game harping on hoopla without it going anywhere, conveniently. I think it’s possible they’re bussing given the heat hoopla was receiving on D1 for the 4s thing, which is also the thing I think infinity has been most vocal about, which leads me to hoopla. the townreading-tgp-but-not-really-trying-to-stop-wagon is mostly what I was thinking about when I jked him, I think?
hoopla - I feel like the majority of her content has been mech-based which isn’t scummy necessarily, but it’s easy to hide behind so I don’t think it’s super town-indicative. potential for bussing with infinity - made some weird vague statements about him D1 without much follow-up. I don’t really have a strong read but it makes less un-sense to me than other people
jv - on D1 jumping on everyone for anything that could be remotely shaded, and their read on peta never evolved past “peta lied about draft picks.” From what I remember, town!NM usually shows at least some sign of solving and hasn’t shown that here. again not a super strong read but I don’t really know what else makes sense.

I don’t really think dunn is scum based on his claim - I think he picked what he said he picked. When I softed, it felt like he had a very similar reaction to you (mena) when you realized you had picked the JK/tracker slot and didn’t get it. Is your issue that he came to the same conclusion that you did but at a time when he shouldn’t have had enough information to do so? Or that he seemed to accept you as the killer too quickly when he should have known it wasn’t an unequivocal guilty? I was/am treating his reaction to my soft as town because it seemed natural for town!dunn to accept my soft right away.

[lilith2013]

Mena was there other stuff you asked me? I looked through your ISO and couldn’t find anything else

[Infinity 324]

Hmm, I did try to stop the TGP wagon as best I could (see 2108 and the engagement with uncrowned starting at 2207 but I had a difficult time articulating my read there and wasn't very effective at doing so as a result. I don't have a ton of influence over this town to begin with, so I felt like saying "TGP is town" over and over wasn't going to be very effective when I had already explained my reasoning to the best of my ability.

[Something_Smart]

i thought this was softing cop ^

I mean uh sometimes people just say stuff like that when they aren't cops. I wouldn't say it looks like a soft.

[Infinity 324]

I'm sorta wondering what scum are doing in this gamestate if dunn is scum--the answer is probably bussing, but I'm not sure why they felt the need to bus. Imo the case on dunn isn't rock solid, and dave or me seem like reasonable targets to push instead. It's wine, but something to think about.

[Infinity 324]

I suppose lurking could be another answer.

[Infinity 324]

Still getting scumvibes from lilith, those scumreads feel weirdly uncharitable. If we're solving her later we're solving her later, but I felt I should mention it at least.

[Something_Smart]

S_S have you got anything you would like to add (like a vote..?)

Not to my knowledge.

I could vote Dunnstral if people really wanted but I'd rather let them do so on their own schedule and I don't expect us having trouble getting enough votes to execute him.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorta wondering what scum are doing in this gamestate if dunn is scum--the answer is probably bussing, but I'm not sure why they felt the need to bus. Imo the case on dunn isn't rock solid, and dave or me seem like reasonable targets to push instead. It's wine, but something to think about.

It doesn't really matter whether the case on Dunn is that solid; there's no way he makes it near endgame at this rate. Which means bussing is not mandatory, but it is totally reasonable and pretty much without downside.

[Something_Smart]

those scumreads feel weirdly uncharitable.

What does this mean

[Infinity 324]

those scumreads feel weirdly uncharitable.

What does this mean

It feels a bit like she's trying to fit the evidence to the read rather than the other way around.

[the worst]

quack?

[the worst]

quack