Mini Normal 2173 | Bending | Game Over

[Andresvmb]

@andres - you realize I was saying flavor town long ago, right?

Uhm, you’ve been calling it a 50/50 like 10 minutes ago. I think you need people to believe that in case Tayl0r flips Town, so that you don’t get immediately executed. But if Tayl0r flips Town, you should be executed I’m afraid.

[Andresvmb]

I think that what I need to do is to make up my mind once and for all about what I think about Tayl0r. I have been all over the place and I should commit to a read. And if I can figure that out for myself maybe I can convince others too.

[Andresvmb]

Logically, I should park my vote here.

VOTE: VPB

Yes, Tayl0r could be pocketing Infinity. This is possible. But I am starting to better understand Tayl0r’s worldview, and the conclusion that VPB is Scum falls almost naturally. Purely based on the pushes VPB has pursued, including an openness to execute me while trying to hide behind Flavor/Koba (if they could only just agree to execute me), and the fact that VPB has supported my faulty logic in attacking Infinity, means that I shouldn’t shy away from this. Marky Mark had good reason to doubt me based on my attack on Infinity, and since Tayl0r is defending there, I don’t see an alternative to this.

[Andresvmb]

If this flips Scum, Marky Mark and Tayl0r are on more solid ground and should be trusted. I don’t know that I would go as far as to call them confirmed Town, but VPB’s push onto Tayl0r has been too sustained for it to be coming from a Partner.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway I’ll go ISO Tayl0r and come back with some thoughts.

[Andresvmb]

@Marky Mark talk to me about VPB. Can you update your read? I know you said you had a nuanced view there and that you aren’t sure. Has that changed?

[Andresvmb]

so theres at least one scum in {shelly, dkkoba} based on their buddy-buddy interactions. im leaning towards either shelly or both. i think theres probably two scum in {infinity, koba, shelly} but not all three. i could see all three scum being in {infinity, shellly, koba, gerain}

And yet you bashed me for having upside down reads Tayl0r? Haha I should have some more faith in myself.

[VP Baltar]

@andres - you realize I was saying flavor town long ago, right?

Uhm, you’ve been calling it a 50/50 like 10 minutes ago. I think you need people to believe that in case Tayl0r flips Town, so that you don’t get immediately executed. But if Tayl0r flips Town, you should be executed I’m afraid.

I'm really not following your logic here. My point is that you are clearing infinity for saying Flavor is town, and I've been doing that for a long time,just not related to a night action

[JacksonVirgo]

Flip. Right, regardless of alignment this isn't good that we've rushed this. without being able to organize ourselves.

Infinity - I really need to know who you are targetting tonight or I can't verify you

A50 - I would really really like to know who your preferred elim choice(s) would've been before we have any sort of flip to provide some accountability

Dude are you serious? You want the detective to claim their target? In other words, FORCE the detective to get a negative result even if they hit scum.

[JacksonVirgo]

Targeting A50

ghjiyf86ygiuh;ju879t86ygiuhoiu876trtf

Are you actually shitting me... this... with your role.. smh

What?

I’m just finding whoever did the n1 kill, this way mark can verify me

...

What the literal fuck

[Infinity 324]

If I target whoever did the n1 kill, I get a guilty regardless of who does the kill tonight.

[DrippingGoofball]

@Marky Mark talk to me about VPB. Can you update your read? I know you said you had a nuanced view there and that you aren’t sure. Has that changed?

Let me try and get across where my reads are at RN

Conftown{FL, Koba}
Could well be town{JV}

Middling{VP

, Taylor} | Low-info {N_M}
Potentially scummy{A50, Andres, Infinity} - A50 is more gutfeel here based on posting style, the other two are more based on tangible things they've said/done
Scummy{DGB}

Infinity is a special case where due to PR mechanics it just does not make sense to elim him today

Marky Mark's updated "middling" read of VP is that I'm scum LOL

[VP Baltar]

Marky Mark's updated "middling" read of VP is that I'm scum LOL

Actually is slightly weird he had taylor and I in exactly the same bracket. Prevents alignment tells either way

[DrippingGoofball]

Marky Mark has four people he'd clearly vote for, A50, Andres, Infinity, and me.
Three more where no one would bat an eyelash if he joined the wagon: N_M, Tayl0r, and VP.

So that's seven players he'd be OK yeeting.

But even JV "could well be town" so he could still be vote-able for Marky Mark.

Now we're up to 8 players he could yeet and be scumsistent, while obsessing over me.

Only two players (FL and KOba) he couldn't vote.

[Andresvmb]

Okay, I do think that I had fairly good reason to be skeptical of Tayl0r based on the bulk of Tayl0r’s posts from early on in the game (and my changing view of Tayl0r makes sense if you realize that it came after the flips, but before Tayl0r’s more consistent push on VPB). I think there was a lot of early stuff that didn’t make sense. However, I will say the following:

(i) I think Tayl0r’s progression on Infinity reads genuine. Infinity appears to agree. And if Tayl0r was pushing Infinity as Scum, hopping off after Infinity appeared to be gathering momentum does not make sense.
(ii) Tayl0r’s push on Koba seemed mostly driven by play style, and not Koba acting Scummy necessarily. Some of the call outs are very much in this vein. I think this might have clouded Tayl0r’s judgment. However, I would characterize it very similar to what appears to have happened to me with Infinity. Having a negative view prior, Tayl0r evaluated the new information being offered up in the most negative light possible. I’ll say, I’m not sure it Tayl0r completely trusts Koba yet, but certainly Tayl0r has been ranking Koba higher over time. The push though could easily be coming from Town, is my opinion.
(iii) Tayl0r and VPB’s clash and SR’s of each other do not read like distancing to me at all. Tayl0r’s changing view began in D1, and VPB has been happy to discredit back and cast a shadow over Tayl0r for a long part of this game. Now, this isn’t impossible that it’s coming from Partners. I would just be very surprised. I think it is fairly obvious that VPB/Tayl0r most likely contains Scum. The game is somewhat revolving around them two, and I don’t think this game makes much sense if they’re both Town. I could very easily be wrong and well, that’ll be a fun post-game discussion.

[Infinity 324]

Marky Mark has four people he'd clearly vote for, A50, Andres, Infinity, and me.
Three more where no one would bat an eyelash if he joined the wagon: N_M, Tayl0r, and VP.

So that's seven players he'd be OK yeeting.

But even JV "could well be town" so he could still be vote-able for Marky Mark.

Now we're up to 8 players he could yeet and be scumsistent, while obsessing over me.

Only two players (FL and KOba) he couldn't vote.

I'm always suspicious of arguments along the lines of "x player has too many scumreads/townreads, they must be scum" especially because of how much shit I got for not really having scumreads on d1.

[Infinity 324]

(i) I think Tayl0r’s progression on Infinity reads genuine. Infinity appears to agree. And if Tayl0r was pushing Infinity as Scum, hopping off after Infinity appeared to be gathering momentum does not make sense.

Yeah, what I was putting into the game really changed at that point, it makes perfect sense to switch her read there. As scum, she's less likely to pick up on that and more likely to stick with the read for the sake of looking consistent.

[Andresvmb]

Now, I don’t know how I feel about Tayl0r’s posting post “hammer”. If Tayl0r knew that she wasn’t actually executed, then that’s a negative. Tayl0r wanted to be given the chance to claim before being executed. But in that “twilight”, you’ll notice that she never did Claim. Which would have been natural if she truly thought she was going to flip. So that’s something to keep in mind.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm always suspicious of arguments along the lines of "x player has too many scumreads/townreads, they must be scum" especially because of how much shit I got for not really having scumreads on d1.

Nah... lots of town reads is townie... lots of scum reads is scummy.

Scum doesn't want to box themselves in with a bunch of town reads, they keep their options open.

[Andresvmb]

Taylor/A50/nm might be the squad here. They could be holding rank since NM doesn't talk and has few associatives. Plus lack of day talk probably means bussing is less likely since scum don't want to hurt each other's feelings without asking first.

Infinity is alternate for Taylor.

You’ve been saying Infinity is Town for a long time, really? Are you sure about that?

[Infinity 324]

Honestly I mostly see scum have regular-looking readslists. Yeah the don't keep their options open as much, but they don't draw attention to themselves. Also, these posts don't seem like he's trying to keep his options open:

Taylor I am nullish on - I thought her criticism of Gamma's placeholder vote on N_M was opportunistic and she flipped between several of the main wagons yesterday but the wider general feel of her posts is townish and it feels like she has been trying to actively scumhunt (certainly more than some others rn) so I just don't think its a good elim choice compared to some others (DGB, A50, Andres)

I am content to vote Andres (or possibly A50 but as that is more of a feel-read, I'd rather refine it by hearing more from him (eg on his scum suspects as requested)) to reach a consensus if there is no will for an elim on DGB but it's hard to look past here when she slings stuff like above eg insinuating that I have no reads - I genuinely don't understand how other people aren't seeing this !?

[DrippingGoofball]

Now, I don’t know how I feel about Tayl0r’s posting post “hammer”. If Tayl0r knew that she wasn’t actually executed, then that’s a negative. Tayl0r wanted to be given the chance to claim before being executed. But in that “twilight”, you’ll notice that she never did Claim. Which would have been natural if she truly thought she was going to flip. So that’s something to keep in mind.

How did I miss that

VOTE: Tayl0r

[Infinity 324]

Jesus, is that too obvious to be a CW attempt?

[JacksonVirgo]

Jesus, is that too obvious to be a CW attempt?

CW? Court Wizard? Counter-Wagon?

[Andresvmb]

Jesus, is that too obvious to be a CW attempt?

No. I think the vote really should be between VPB and Tayl0r. I’m leaning Town on Tayl0r after I ISO’ed so I’m feeling better about my vote.