Mini Normal 2173 | Bending | Game Over

[VP Baltar]

I don’t want a flip based on a self-vote. Last time that happened it was Town that had given up. I will wait out some more comments and I do want Koba to talk to me at more length.

I'm not giving up as town. I'm wedging scum with a flip they don't want. Taylor and infinity have backed themselves into a world where I have to be scum in all scenarios. That means my flip is a terrible outcome for them. They've had material support from NM all day, and A50 in the sidelines.

If I turn green soon, that PoE becomes inescapable if you guys can follow through effectively.

[VP Baltar]

Last, I was doing some thinking. If Taylor is the scum here, Mark may be the scum in the DGB/Mark combo.

Taylor has been the main person pushing the "Mark is bad as scum" narrative. It occurred to me that she might be defusing pressure on him before it starts if they are working together.

I'm not certain, but it's an avenue to investigate after I'm gone.

[Marky Mark]

Ok, now that was a bit of a plot twist - I genuinely thought that was a hammer there

I suspect FL would be the obvious NK choice due to his PR, but in the unlikely (IMO) case that I die here then it could well mean infinity is scum and was in danger of being verified.

So, tell me again how this works in your mind, cuz I'm really puzzled. Why won't you just stay hidden and target FL instead and catch a killer, rather than outing your role and Infinity's target??

You're just going to have to trust me on this one I'm afraid (well obviously you don't

have

to ) - I will explain tomorrow, but this is the optimum play for my role. I have explained the minimum needed to coordinate night actions because I don't want to give the scumteam TMI.

There's some good speculation in the last few pages on associations between Taylor/Infinity. The more I think about this, the more convinced I am that the best option to solve here is to wait until I can verify Infinity overnight and then we can use that alignment info to associatively sort Taylor more accurately. A Taylor elim today would be a poor choice IMO, regardless of whether you think she townflailed after the fake hammer because we will be able to make a substantially more accurate sort tomorrow based on knowing infinity's alignment.

Townpoints for Andres' selfawareness in updating his stance on Infinity

[Marky Mark]

Flip. Right, regardless of alignment this isn't good that we've rushed this. without being able to organize ourselves.

Infinity - I really need to know who you are targetting tonight or I can't verify you

A50 - I would really really like to know who your preferred elim choice(s) would've been before we have any sort of flip to provide some accountability

Dude are you serious? You want the detective to claim their target? In other words, FORCE the detective to get a negative result even if they hit scum.

That's not quite how his role works (I misunderstood it too) - he can still see if A50 performed the NK yesterday, so its not a complete waste (and realistically, whoever performed the NK yesterday, will probs kill again tonight to minimize players the detective can detect) and the benefit of all this is that we can verify infinity's alignment

@Marky Mark talk to me about VPB. Can you update your read? I know you said you had a nuanced view there and that you aren’t sure. Has that changed?

Let me try and get across where my reads are at RN

Conftown{FL, Koba}
Could well be town{JV}

Middling{VP

, Taylor} | Low-info {N_M}
Potentially scummy{A50, Andres, Infinity} - A50 is more gutfeel here based on posting style, the other two are more based on tangible things they've said/done
Scummy{DGB}

Infinity is a special case where due to PR mechanics it just does not make sense to elim him today

Marky Mark's updated "middling" read of VP is that I'm scum LOL

Is your name Marky Mark? No? Then kindly let me answer my own questions rather than misrepping me thanks

Marky Mark has four people he'd clearly vote for, A50, Andres, Infinity, and me.
Three more where no one would bat an eyelash if he joined the wagon: N_M, Tayl0r, and VP.

So that's seven players he'd be OK yeeting.

But even JV "could well be town" so he could still be vote-able for Marky Mark.

Now we're up to 8 players he could yeet and be scumsistent, while obsessing over me.

Only two players (FL and KOba) he couldn't vote.

I really hope you are just trolling here, because to accuse me of confbias on you and then stretch this far to try and distort my words is nothing short of creative writing
-I have made it clear I am not going to elim infinity today and will have him verified by tomorrow (barring any scum PR shennanigans) so this is a non-issue
-DGB/A50/Andres yep those are SRs although Andres is reading more town after his recent posts, so I would be hesitant to go there rn
-Taylor I am not eliming today
-Ref JV, could well be town is just another choice of words for townlean so we are arguing over semantics here
-N_M yeah maybe as a compromise yeet
-...and VP I am going back over ATM to try and refine some of my thinking, so yeah I wouldn't rule it out but I need to get my head around the recent dynamics of the Taylor wagon(s)
So I make that around 5 max I am not psychic (or even a particularly experienced town player - I have one game as town since returning from my 6 year hiatus, where I replaced in D2 to a mathematically solved game due to PR interactions) so I hope you can understand me not knowing for sure where the scum slots lie

[JacksonVirgo]

Infinity is obviously Town there's no need to verify shit

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Taylor

[Flavor Leaf]

End this day, end it.

[Marky Mark]

@Andres - top of my head, VP's recent posts look like a townflail fmpov. I am also starting to SR Taylor slightly more due to observations others (eg DK) have made, such as how difficult it has been for her wagon to get traction. I think this section of the playerbase would be sorted much more accurately though once we can verify infinity's alignment.

There is definitely a grain of truth in VP calling out some of my later posting as trash - this game has moved way too quickly for me and I have been somewhat out of my depth in terms of capacity to keep up and also just in terms of game size (the largest game I've played in memory prior to this was ~40 pages when finished). Nevertheless, I am trying to add value where I can here, so let me say the following:

-I meant what I said before about how leaving Taylor until tomorrow would give us significantly more info to try and solve with as we are likely to know infinity's alignment. This is less true for VP, but I still think trying to solve the {infinity, taylor, vp} segment of the game will be more straightforward with that info

-As a result, I would rather look outside of that today at A50/DGB or even N_M today. I don't think there's anyone else who is likely scum here.

-DGB keeps returning to Taylor, but her vote justification over the non-claim is at least consistent with her vote justification on geraint. If Taylor winds up being scum then I may well have been wrong about DGB. I am also starting to think that the point itself (Taylor's lack of claim) has merit to it.

IMHO VP and Taylor are the most complex slots to sort in this game due to their # of interactions and associations. I slightly disagree with VP's assertion that a flip will crack the game open as I don't think it necessarily solves slots like N_M or A50.

I am going to take a break for virtual church, but I want to have a deeper look at Taylor/VP today and try to capture the evidence for and against each slot, because I think it's important we get this correct.

-- pedit. @JV I don't see how this is true after some of the assertions pulled by them (infinity) earlier eg that they were conftown on the basis of PR distribution and game setup

[Flavor Leaf]

For what it’s worth, i can’t really explain it, but i have felt that VP was town for a long time. Something in day 1, and really, it’s passed onto day 2. There’s just some kind of understanding that we’ve had around the game state, and I’ve mentioned I thought i could be pocketed, but I really don’t think I am. I feel like VP is the wagon scum are trying to get, and Taylor keeps getting so close, then the wagon momentum shifts to Andres, which opens up VP.

Every single time. Scum are actively splitting momentum between Andres and Taylor. They are both scum here.

[Flavor Leaf]

With freakin Not Mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

Here’s the thing, Marky. Yes, tomorrow we could solve her better, but that’s the case with effectively anyone in this game.

Taylor opens up the Taylor Andres VP triangle more than anything, and while I’d prefer Andres, Taylor is fine

[Glitch]

Holy shit
So I just joined a large normal. It hasn't started yet but I bookmarked the topic. I woke up this morning and went to my bookmarks and freaking panicked because for a split second i thought this thread was the new Large and overnight it had started and jumped to 153 pages in like 6 hours. I just about spewed coffee. Then I saw it was my game and I was like "oh. Oh derp" lmao

-__-

[Gypyx]

Holy shit
So I just joined a large normal. It hasn't started yet but I bookmarked the topic. I woke up this morning and went to my bookmarks and freaking panicked because for a split second i thought this thread was the new Large and overnight it had started and jumped to 153 pages in like 6 hours. I just about spewed coffee. Then I saw it was my game and I was like "oh. Oh derp" lmao

-__-

The moderator ladies and gentelmen, the moderator

[Marky Mark]

Here’s the thing, Marky. Yes, tomorrow we could solve her better, but that’s the case with effectively anyone in this game.

Taylor opens up the Taylor Andres VP triangle more than anything, and while I’d prefer Andres, Taylor is fine

Perhaps I didn't phrase my argument very well. Yes, waiting until tomorrow would provide more info for sorting any player - but it is likely to provide us with a

specific

piece of info in terms of infinity's alignment, which will make sorting Taylor's slot

significantly

easier due to their interactions (ie the info we will get here goes beyond the wider increase in info that we will get in general anyway)

@Taylor, I'd like to hear in your own words why you didn't out your role when you thought you had been hammered.

[Marky Mark]

So the original Taylor wagon that reached E-1 was (pg 116):
DGB, VP, Andres, DK, FL

Then she reached E-2 (pg 129):
DGB, JV, DK, Andres

The E-1 fake hammer one was (pg 147)
JacksonVirgo, Not_Mafia, Flavor Leaf, DkKoba, VP Baltar

So we have a core of 7 players who have voted Taylor across the three wagons as Andres and DGB were not on the fake hammer one, but were on earlier ones. Conversely, JV joined the 'Vote Taylor' campaign on the second wagon and N_M joined it on the most recent wagon.

If I take myself out of this and take Taylor out of it too (as she is the target) then that's 7/9 players who have at some point today been serious about wanting her elimed (the other two players are A50 and Infinity).

That's a pretty significant % of the playerbase.

I wrote up the wagon compositions to try and make sense of it but this seems worth sharing in case anyone else has insights based on this? My initial take on this is that it leans towards her being scum as with that many players being on her wagon at one point or another, the scumteam would've had more than enough votes to eliminate town!her and could've made the starts align to ensure that went through. This supports the point that DK (and others) have made about the difficulty of getting traction on her wagon pointing to her being scum

An alternate interpretation would be that she is town and DGB and/or Andres slipped off the later wagon to avoid being implicated but this just doesn't make sense really IMO because that first wagon on pg 116 could quite feasibly have gone through

[Marky Mark]

UNVOTE:

I am not as sure on DGB as I once was - if Taylor is scum here, then I could see DGB potentially being town

[DrippingGoofball]

I am not voting VP.

[DrippingGoofball]

And JV is town.

N_M needs to be policy yeeted at some point.

[DrippingGoofball]

I don't care how many people are voting or not voting Tayl0r right now. She needs to claim.

[JacksonVirgo]

I don't care how many people are voting or not voting Tayl0r right now. She needs to claim.

^

[Marky Mark]

The more I think about this, the more I think if Taylor was town she would be elimed already as the scumteam would've been able to coordinate 6 of the 7 players who have voted on her wagons onto a single wagon

I am still of the opinion that knowing Infinity's alignment would be useful for sorting Taylor but I am open to doing a 180 on my position of leaving this till tomorrow due to the simple reason that I no longer think there are better [feasible] options for today:
- Recent interactions have got me thinking DGB could actually be town here if Taylor flips red
-my A50 SR is mainly based on feels and fence-sitting (as requested, I looked at a couple of your games A50, the bus driver one and wherewolf where you seem more decisive as town than you are here) and others don't seem to be SRing him so it's probably not a feasible elim choice given we are well into the second half of D2's IRL time allowance
-Andres' posts over the last day or so IRL have felt more town than his previous ones (an example of the previous ones is the misguided push on infinity)

I'm going to go for some exercise and mull this over, but I am minded to vote Taylor on my return unless I have any brainwaves to the contrary. I have been giving her town cred most of the game for TRing me and pointing out that my scumgame is very different to my posting in this game (which is true), but in hindsight, the fact that she is right about this doesn't mean that she has to be town.

[Andresvmb]

Alright I think I’m done with this day.

@VPB switch back to Tayl0r.
@Koba let me know when you’re around.

[DkKoba]

Hi

[DkKoba]

Just woke up

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:

I think taylor should claim, then happy to return my vote there.